The Market's True Earnings Expectations

Go beyond the consensus and become a better stock picker with Earnings Whisper numbers, investor sentiment, and proprietary research and tools to help you capture the Post-Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD) and outperform the overall stock market. Plus, get the most accurate earnings dates, earnings news, and insights into how stocks react before and after earnings.



Most Anticipated Earnings Releases TM

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The most anticipated earnings releases for the week beginning October 16, 2026 are NFLX Netflix TSLA Tesla SPCX Space Exploration Technologies CLF Cleveland-Cliffs TRV The Travelers Companies

Post-Earnings Announcement Drift

Beating the Estimate Is Not Beating Expectations

In 1968, Ray Ball and Philip Brown found that stocks keep moving in the direction of an earnings surprise after the news is already public. Six decades later it still happens — but the reason it is hard to see is the yardstick. Measured against the published consensus, a beat is a beat. Measured against what investors actually expected, the same report can be a disappointment, and the stock spends the next week telling you so.

+0.6% Beat the Whisper and the estimate
−0.1% Beat the estimate missed the Whisper
−0.6% Missed the Whisper five-day drift

Average cumulative return from the post-announcement open through the fifth trading day. The earnings gap is excluded.

Open Day 5 Beat the Whisper Beat consensus, missed Whisper Missed the Whisper
Every company on the middle line beat the consensus estimate.
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The Whisper Report®

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Credit Meets Earnings

Monday, October 12, 2026
Macro data is positive, guidance and estimates are rising, early earnings results have been strong, and the yield curve is holding steady. The question is whether the banks confirm that borrowers are still healthy.
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Earnings Preview

NFLX Netflix is confirmed to report Tuesday, October 20, after the close.

Netflix Must Prove Its Third-Quarter Slowdown Is a Calendar Quirk, Not a Trend

Netflix heads into its third-quarter report with a slower growth guide and a short list of things to prove. Last quarter, management told investors that FX-neutral revenue growth would ease from 12% to about 11%. It blamed the dip on last year's back-half-weighted comparisons, not on weaker demand. The October 20 release, due after the close, is the first real test of that explanation. Nudging the full-year outlook higher only works if the quarter that carries much of that weight delivers.

The Street has largely accepted management's script. Consensus calls for earnings of $0.82 per share on revenue of $12.87 billion, essentially matching the company's guidance of roughly $0.82 and $12.86 billion. That convergence is telling. Before the guide, analysts were modeling $13.02 billion in sales and $0.83 in EPS, so estimates were pulled down to meet the company rather than the other way around. Revenue growth of about 11.8% would be solid, if unspectacular, for a business this size. The headline forecast of an 86% drop in EPS against the year-ago $5.87 should not alarm anyone. With revenue still climbing by double digits and last quarter's EPS at $0.80, that comparison looks like a mismatch in per-share basis rather than an earnings collapse. The Earnings Whisper of $0.84 sits only modestly above consensus. That signals a slight expectation of upside, not a demand for a blowout.

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Top Earnings News

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The recent, most closely watched, earnings results.

Ladder Capital Beat Consensus Estimates

Friday, October 16, 2026 at 8:30 AM
Ladder Capital (LADR) reported earnings of $0.35 per share on revenue of $104.89 million for the third quarter ended September 2026. The consensus earnings estimate was $0.21 per share on revenue of $59.50 million. The company beat consensus estimates by 66.67% while revenue grew 3.42% on a year-over-year basis.

Ladder Capital Corp is an internally-managed real estate investment trust. The Company invests in loans, securities and other interests in U.S. commercial real estate, with a focus on senior secured assets.

The Travelers Companies Beat Consensus Estimates

Friday, October 16, 2026 at 6:57 AM
The Travelers Companies (TRV) reported earnings of $9.18 per share on revenue of $12.41 billion for the third quarter ended September 2026. The consensus earnings estimate was $7.07 per share on revenue of $12.40 billion. The company beat consensus estimates by 29.84% while revenue fell 0.47% compared to the same quarter a year ago.

“We are pleased to report excellent third quarter results,” said Alan Schnitzer, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. “It was another in a run of successful quarters, with very strong underwriting performance across all three segments and a record result from our investment portfolio. Core income for the quarter was $1.9 billion, or $9.18 per diluted share. Core return on equity for the quarter was 22.1%, bringing core return on equity over the last four quarters to 24.1%. Third quarter underwriting income of $1.4 billion pre-tax benefited from continued strong levels of underlying underwriting income and net favorable prior year development. Profitability was excellent on both a reported and underlying basis. The combined ratio improved to 86.8%, and the underlying combined ratio remained very strong at 84.1%.

Travelers Companies Inc through its subsidiaries provides commercial & personal property and casualty insurance products and services to businesses, government units, associations and individuals.

Truist Financial Reported In-line with Expectations, Sees Revenue Above Estimates

Friday, October 16, 2026 at 6:30 AM
Truist Financial (TFC) reported earnings of $1.16 per share on revenue of $6.11 billion for the third quarter ended September 2026. The consensus earnings estimate was $1.17 per share on revenue of $5.31 billion. The Earnings Whisper number was $1.16 per share. The company reported in-line with expectations while revenue fell 22.06% compared to the same quarter a year ago.

The company said in its earnings presentation it expects fourth quarter revenue of approximately $5.35 billion. The current consensus revenue estimate is $5.29 billion for the quarter ending December 31, 2026.

Truist Financial Corporation (NYSE: TFC) is a purpose-driven financial services company committed to inspire and build better lives and communities. Formed by the historic merger of equals of BB&T and SunTrust, Truist has leading market share in many high-growth markets in the country.

The Drift

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Upcoming Earnings

Big Banks Take Center Stage as Earnings Season Kicks Into High Gear

October 10, 2026
UNH JPM GS ASML TSM WFC
Buckle up, because this is the week Wall Street has been circling on its calendar. The nation's banking giants are about to throw open their books, and this crowd always sets the tone for everything that follows. JPMorgan and Citigroup are strolling in with a swagger, riding real optimism and a tailwind from solid results last time around. Citigroup in particular has the whisper crowd leaning bullish, hoping management keeps the good news flowing. Not everyone is bringing the same energy, though. Goldman Sachs is walking into the room under a cloud, with the mood decidedly sour and analysts quietly bracing for a stumble. Wells Fargo, Bank of America and the regional players round out a packed financials lineup, and when this many banks report in a single stretch, even small surprises can send ripples across the whole market.
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Recent Positive Earnings

XMTR 11.7% since the report




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