ACHR Archer Aviation Inc

NYSE
$4.81

Archer Aviation Misses on EPS as Commercial Milestones Pile Up, but the Burn Keeps Climbing and Revenue Stalls

Archer Aviation (ACHR) reported a third-quarter loss of $0.35 per share, missing the -$0.25 consensus by 52.2% and the -$0.23 Earnings Whisper. Revenue of $5.1 million beat the $4.0 million consensus by 27.5%. Earnings fell 218.2% year over year as the loss widened from $0.20 a share a year earlier. On the operating side, this was arguably Archer's most tangible commercialization quarter yet. Financially, it was another quarter of rising spend, shrinking liquidity, and flat revenue. That is the central tension. Archer is checking off milestones faster than before, but each one is getting more expensive while the cash cushion thins.

The quality of the miss needs context. The consensus figure was on a non-GAAP basis, while the reported $0.35 is a GAAP net loss that includes $86.5 million of stock-based compensation and an $8.6 million Stellantis warrant charge. By the company's own preferred metric, the quarter was on plan. The adjusted EBITDA loss of $178.5 million landed at the favorable end of the $170 million to $200 million guide and was only $1.4 million worse than Q2.

The year-over-year comparison is also distorted. Q3 2025 benefited from $28.7 million of other income, mostly warrant revaluation gains, that did not recur. Still, the underlying trend is clear. GAAP operating expenses rose to $294.3 million from $174.8 million a year ago, driven by R&D spending on Midnight certification, production, the hybrid Halo/Thunder program, and AI products.

Revenue is where growth visibly decelerated. After Q2 revenue jumped 213% sequentially, Q3 edged up only to $5.1 million from $5.0 million, even with the first Omen engine deliveries to Anduril. Q4 revenue guidance of $5 million to $6 million implies modest sequential growth but sits below analyst estimates. Cost of revenue of $5.0 million essentially consumed the quarter's sales. Meanwhile, the Q4 adjusted EBITDA loss guide stepped up to $185 million to $205 million, so the company expects to spend more while revenue stays roughly flat.

The call delivered a credible execution story. Management called the FAA Market Survey Special Airworthiness Certificate the most important commercialization milestone to date, and Midnight is now at Hawthorne preparing for Los Angeles operations. That fulfills the Q2 promise of LA flying within months. Piloted test flights climbed from more than 150 to more than 260 cumulatively, including a record 118 flights in the quarter. Nine Midnights are in build, and new partners include Formula 1, ITA Airways, and an 11-vertiport Texas network. Halo turboshaft testing has begun, with full-scale flight still targeted for 2027. Management's tone was the most confident of the year, with executives saying they have "never been more confident."

Bears have legitimate ammunition, however. The certificate covers conventional-takeoff (CTOL) operations only, and a separate 50-hour vertical-flight (VTOL) campaign is still required. Piloted full transition has slipped from "second half" to "end of this year," with little room for further delay. The defense contract wins management previously expected in 2026 have not materialized. UAE progress went undiscussed, and the profitable-AI-revenue target was pushed to post-close disclosure.

Liquidity is the clearest pressure point. Cash and investments have fallen from roughly $2.0 billion to $1.8 billion, $1.6 billion, and now $1.35 billion over four quarters. Q3 alone consumed $207 million, including $164.6 million of operating cash and $31.7 million of capex. The pending Boeing transaction is the key offset. It would add Insitu's more than $200 million of annual revenue and, per management, positive operating cash flow. One regulatory approval remains outstanding. The deal also makes Boeing Archer's largest shareholder, which brings strategic validation but also ownership dilution.

The market has punished the stock regardless of the milestones. Shares fell 28.7% from the $6.23 open after the August report to $4.44. That leaves them 22.3% below the 200-day moving average and 39.1% below the August 14 inter-earnings high of $7.29. The stock set a 52-week low of $3.62 on November 5, then bounced 22.7% into the report. That rebound shows up as positive momentum, while price, sequential growth, and AVWAP trend readings remain negative. Investor sentiment improved only marginally, from -0.189 to -0.175, and remains slightly negative.

The bottom line is that Archer is executing on its commercialization roadmap, but the financial profile is moving the wrong way. Spending is rising, revenue has plateaued, and cash is falling roughly $200 million a quarter. The GAAP miss overstates the operational shortfall, yet the widened Q4 loss guide and soft revenue outlook give investors little near-term relief. Until the Boeing deal closes and Insitu's revenue base reshapes the income statement, the stock's direction likely hinges on whether the regulatory and transition milestones stay on schedule.

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