Array Digital Infrastructure heads into its third-quarter report with a revenue outlook that looks sturdier than Wall Street seems willing to believe, and a stock price that has moved in the opposite direction. Management lifted the low end of its 2026 revenue range last quarter, yet the shares have slid 12% since then while the broader market stood still. That disconnect makes this report less about a single quarter's numbers and more about whether the tower story the company has been selling is actually taking hold.
Analysts expect earnings of $0.07 per share on revenue of $53.8 million. The top line would represent a solid 14.2% gain from $47.1 million a year ago, while the projected 92.8% drop in EPS from $0.97 says more about how much the company's earnings base has changed during its transformation from wireless carrier into infrastructure owner than about the health of the leasing business. Bottom-line comparisons here are noisy, and sequential progress in revenue and operating profit is the cleaner signal. On that front, the consensus implies roughly flat revenue versus the second quarter's $54.1 million.
The more telling comparison is with guidance. Array now projects full-year revenue of $205 million to $215 million, having nudged the floor up from $200 million. The Street's full-year estimate of about $201.6 million sits below even the old low end of the new range, which suggests analysts are either skeptical of the raise or bracing for the erosion of temporary revenue. Management also lifted its adjusted OIBDA outlook to $60 million to $75 million, adjusted EBITDA to $220 million to $235 million and equity income to $145 million. A quarter that tracks toward the middle of those ranges would argue that consensus is too cautious.
The swing factor is the tension between new leasing and fading legacy income. Cash site rental revenue grew 65% last quarter after normalizing for DISH, a strong signal that third-party carriers are adding equipment to Array's towers. At the same time, the interim site revenue paid by T-Mobile during its network integration has started to decline, and that runoff will get steeper over time. Investors should want evidence that organic colocation growth is outrunning that decline. The tenantless tower estimate, recently narrowed to between 1,000 and 1,700 with the low end raised, is worth watching too; any upward drift would imply more decommissioning risk and less leasing upside.
Corporate actions add another layer. TDS has offered to acquire the shares it does not already own at a 0.86 exchange ratio, and a special committee is evaluating the bid. Because of that structure, Array's stock trades partly as a proxy for TDS, whose own call highlighted a deepening slide in copper and cable revenue alongside a record fiber build. Array has also monetized roughly 70% of its spectrum, closing deals with T-Mobile and Verizon and paying an $11 special dividend, with management pointing to encouraging AWS-3 reauction results as a read-through for its remaining C-band holdings. Any update on the special committee's progress or on the remaining spectrum could overshadow the quarterly figures.
Sentiment has warmed noticeably, with bearishness easing from 20.3% to just 1.8%, even as the price has weakened. The stock sits at $32.35, well below its 200-day moving average of $42.76 and only about 3% above its post-earnings low of $31.35, under the bottom of the prior quarter's range. Expectations, in other words, are hardly stretched. The report will hinge on one question: whether rising colocation revenue can absorb T-Mobile's shrinking interim payments fast enough to keep Array on pace for guidance the Street has not yet fully embraced.