Alkami Technology spent its last earnings call telling investors that the company had hit its five-year goal of roughly $500 million in revenue and $100 million in adjusted EBITDA a year early. The market's response since then has been a shrug that turned into a slump. Shares have fallen nearly 24% while the S&P 500 gained about 4%, leaving the digital banking software provider with a credibility gap to close when it reports third-quarter results after the close on October 28. The issue is not whether Alkami is growing. It is whether the growth engine can keep humming as it shifts from adding new clients toward squeezing more revenue from each user.

The Street expects non-GAAP earnings of $0.22 a share on revenue of $133.6 million, an 18.3% increase from a year ago. The Earnings Whisper sits a bit lower at $0.19, which suggests the informal bar is somewhat easier than published estimates, though not by enough to signal real alarm about profitability. On the top line, management reaffirmed full-year revenue guidance of $528 million to $531 million, its third consecutive upward nudge. Consensus of $530.3 million sits near the top of that range, so analysts are already assuming Alkami lands close to the high end. That leaves limited room for a meaningful beat and makes any shortfall in the quarter more conspicuous.

The most important figure may be average revenue per user. Last quarter ARPU growth slowed to 7% from 9%, and management softened its full-year framing from high single digits to mid-to-high single digits. That matters because executives also described new-logo growth as range bound and said user growth at existing clients is normalizing toward the broader market. If volume is flattening, ARPU becomes the primary lever, and another step down would challenge the idea that cross-selling into the 55 full-suite digital sales and service clients, along with AI-enabled products growing around 30%, can carry the load. Stable or improving ARPU would go a long way toward validating the rotation story.

Backlog is the second pressure point. ARR backlog fell to about $61 million across 37 clients from $71 million in the prior two quarters, and bank backlog looked flat to down even as management cited sharply higher awareness, consideration and win rates among banks. Investors should want to see those improved win rates show up as signed contracts that refill the pipeline, not just as better survey results. A further decline in backlog would raise questions about 2027 growth, while a rebound would support the claim that the bank conversation has moved from proving demand to scaling it. ARR, which reached $512 million last quarter with 21% growth, should keep climbing at a similar clip if the narrative holds.

Margins add a third layer. Gross margin slipped to 63% on lower termination fees, and the 65% target was recast as an exit rate rather than a full-year average, with a delayed database migration keeping duplicative costs in place into 2027. Progress toward that exit rate, alongside continued adjusted EBITDA expansion toward the $96 million to $98 million full-year guide, would reinforce the operating leverage story that has been the company's strongest suit.

Sentiment has improved modestly, with bearishness easing from about 45% to roughly 38%, but it remains negative. The stock trades near $14, well below its 200-day moving average of $17.59 and close to its post-earnings low of $13.21, which suggests investors are already braced for disappointment. Management has also been buying back stock under a new $100 million authorization, signaling it sees value at these levels. Ultimately, the report will turn on one question: can ARPU and backlog stabilize enough to prove that slower user growth is a manageable shift in mix rather than the first sign of a broader deceleration?