American Tower enters its third-quarter report with something it has lacked for several years: a story the market seems to believe. Management has already raised its full-year outlook twice in 2026. It has called this year the trough for per-share cash flow, and it has laid out four overlapping demand drivers that it framed as an inflection point for the tower business. With the stock pressing against its post-earnings high, the October 27 release, due before the open, needs to show that the improved tone is turning into numbers rather than just a better narrative.
The Street is looking for earnings of $2.84 per share on revenue of about $2.77 billion. That would be a step up from last quarter's $2.71 and slightly ahead of the $2.78 posted a year ago. Revenue growth of roughly 1.9% looks sluggish on the surface. It is held back by the completed exit from the Philippines and Bangladesh, which removes about $15 million of revenue for the rest of the year, and by continued churn in Brazil. The whisper number of $2.89 sits modestly above consensus. That points to a bar a bit higher than the published estimate, though not dramatically so. Management's latest guidance calls for 2026 funds from operations of $11.00 to $11.17 per share, up from $10.90 to $11.07. Consensus for the year, at $10.66, sits below the bottom of that range. That gap suggests some analysts have not fully caught up with the raised outlook, which leaves room for upward revisions if the company holds or lifts its targets again.
The most important operating line is data centers. Last quarter CoreSite posted record leasing, signing more new business than in all of 2021, and management lifted its data center growth target to about 15% from the 13% it had held for two prior outlooks. A follow-through quarter would show double-digit revenue growth continuing for a sixth straight period, with cash growth moving above the roughly 12% seen in the second quarter. It would also bring evidence that the record bookings are converting into revenue on schedule. Any sign that permitting delays or local opposition, which management flagged earlier in the year, are slowing new capacity would undercut the acceleration story.
On the tower side, the test is steadier. US organic growth excluding DISH has held near 5% for four straight calls, and tower cash margins expanded about 30 basis points last quarter. Holding those levels while margins keep widening would support the long-term target of 200 to 300 basis points of expansion by 2030. Latin America remains the soft spot, with organic growth near negative 2%. Stabilization there would help the case that the market repair management expects in 2027 is on track. The swing factor that cuts the other way is interest expense. The refinancing drag on per-share cash flow already worsened to about 150 basis points from 100, and another increase would chip away at the benefit of the operating gains. DISH remains excluded from guidance, so any resolution would be upside rather than a risk to the numbers.
Expectations have clearly warmed. Sentiment has swung from firmly bearish before the last report to solidly bullish now, and the shares have gained 9.3% since then, roughly six points better than the S&P 500. At $185.27, the stock sits above its 200-day average and within a whisker of its post-earnings high of $185.88. A clean break would open the way back toward the prior quarter's peak above $196. That positioning means a simple in-line print may not be enough.
The central question is whether American Tower can raise guidance a third time, or at least reaffirm a firmer data center target, while keeping the rate headwind contained. If CoreSite keeps accelerating and the refinancing drag stops growing, the trough-year thesis holds. If either slips, the recent rally may have run ahead of the evidence.