For Clean Energy Fuels, the most important number in its third-quarter report may not be revenue or earnings per share at all. It may be whatever management says about the federal 45Z clean fuel credit. Last quarter the company reaffirmed its $70 million to $75 million adjusted EBITDA target for fiscal 2026. It also warned that if Treasury's GREET guidance is delayed or minimal, results could fall short of that range by as much as roughly $5 million. A credit once treated as built-in upside has become the swing factor between hitting guidance and missing it, and this report is the last checkpoint before year-end.
Wall Street expects a loss of $0.08 per share on revenue of about $103.7 million when the company reports after the close on November 5. That would be a 27% improvement from the $0.11 loss a year ago, on sales down about 2.3%. Shrinking revenue alongside a narrower loss fits the pattern of recent quarters. The top line moves heavily with natural gas prices and trading activity, while profitability depends more on volumes, mix and credits. The estimate is a touch weaker than last quarter's $0.07 loss on $106.4 million in sales. That suggests analysts are not assuming sequential progress, perhaps reflecting the mix-driven margin pressure management flagged.
The constructive case rests on a few operating threads that should show up in the numbers. Upstream dairy RNG production reached 2.1 million gallons last quarter, rebounding from a weather-hit first quarter and running well above the prior year. Management has framed that business as contributing $3 million to $5 million of adjusted EBITDA this year, so another step up in production would support the guidance. Total fuel volumes rose 7% to 81.8 million gallons, mostly from conventional gas at new large-fleet sites. Holding that growth rate would show the station network is still adding throughput. Updates on the two Moss Energy Works joint venture projects slated to come online later this year also matter, since any slippage would push contributions into 2027.
The weaker spots carry just as much weight. Heavy-duty adoption of the Cummins X15N engine has been slow, with only a handful of fleets adding small numbers of trucks. A large pre-buy of legacy diesel trucks ahead of uncertain 2027 EPA standards, plus Cummins' gradual rollout, could stretch that lag further. Any sign that fleets are moving beyond pilot orders would challenge the skeptics. More commentary about postponed decisions would confirm that the trucking story is a 2027 or 2028 event. The newer catalysts, including off-grid power delivered by tube trailer, the $27 million Orange County hydrogen contract and the completed Western Canada network, are intriguing. This quarter is likely too early for them to move results, so concrete revenue or pipeline detail would be a bonus.
The market has already rendered a harsh verdict. Shares have fallen nearly 19% since the last report while the S&P 500 was flat. At $1.46, the stock sits well below its 200-day moving average of $2.03 and close to the $1.33 low of its post-earnings range. The entire range has shifted lower from the prior quarter's band of $1.66 to $2.50. Oddly, sentiment readings have turned modestly bullish after being essentially neutral heading into the last report. That combination points to a stock with a lot of doubt priced in, even as some investors look for a rebound.
The central question is whether the $70 million to $75 million EBITDA target still holds without help from 45Z. If management shows that dairy volumes, fuel growth and cost discipline can carry the year on their own, the credit becomes optional upside again. If the range now depends on Washington acting quickly, the stock's slide may prove to have been an early warning rather than an overreaction.