Coinbase has spent the past year telling investors that it is no longer just a bet on Bitcoin trading volumes. Its third-quarter report, due after the close on October 29, offers a clean test of that claim. Revenue is expected to slide again, so the question is whether the newer businesses management has been promoting are large enough to keep the losses shrinking while the core exchange business contracts.
The Street is looking for a loss of $0.19 per share on revenue of about $1.15 billion. That would be a 38.5% drop from the $1.87 billion Coinbase posted a year ago, when it earned $1.44 per share. It would also mark another step down from the second quarter's $1.22 billion, extending a sequential decline that has run uninterrupted since the third quarter of 2025. The Earnings Whisper sits at a loss of $0.05, well above consensus, which suggests the more informed expectation is for a narrower loss than the official numbers imply. Improving from last quarter's $0.39 loss to something close to breakeven would require cost discipline to do much of the work, since revenue offers little help.
That cost story is the first thing to check. Management set a 2026 adjusted expense target of $4.3 billion to $4.6 billion, roughly $500 million below the run rate it exited 2025 with, and followed up with a restructuring and headcount cut earlier this year. If expenses are tracking toward the low end of that range, a smaller loss on lower revenue becomes believable. If expenses look sticky, the whisper number will look optimistic.
The second issue is subscription and services revenue, the cushion that is supposed to make Coinbase less cyclical. Guidance for that line was trimmed from $710 million to $790 million at the end of 2025 down to $550 million to $630 million, before edging up to $565 million to $645 million on the last call. That small uptick was the first sign of stabilization after a string of cuts, so landing comfortably inside or above that range would support management's claim that the floor is forming. Stablecoin balances matter most here. USDC held on the platform hit a record average near $19 billion earlier this year, and the Circle agreement now renews on unchanged terms, which removes a lingering overhang on that revenue stream.
The newer growth engines also need to show they are still scaling. Retail derivatives passed a $200 million annualized run rate and prediction markets reached $100 million within two months of launch, while Coinbase One set a subscriber record even in a weak market. Further gains, plus early traction from pre-IPO perpetual futures and the Hyperliquid USDC tie-up, would show diversification is gaining ground. The tension is that Coinbase One's zero-fee trading could squeeze take rates as more activity moves under the membership, so revenue per trade deserves scrutiny. Recent senior leadership departures and fading odds for the Clarity Act add questions about execution and regulation, though management has said it would proceed as usual if the bill stalls.
Sentiment has warmed noticeably, moving to a modestly bullish reading from a slightly bearish one ahead of the prior report, and the stock has gained 11.6% since then, beating the S&P 500 by more than 8 points. Still, at about $171 the shares sit below their 200-day average near $182 and roughly midway between the post-earnings low of $139 and high of $208, so the market is hopeful rather than convinced. The report will hinge on whether cost cuts and recurring revenue are now strong enough to offset a shrinking trading business. If they are, the stabilization story holds; if the loss stays wide, Coinbase will still look like a trading company waiting for the market to recover.