Three months ago, Freeport-McMoRan finally got to talk about something other than damage control. After a fatal mud-rush incident at Grasberg last September and a painful reset in April that slashed second-half block cave rates and lifted cost guidance, the July call described a quarter of real progress. The third-quarter report, due before the open on October 27, is the first full quarter in which that recovery story has to show up in the numbers rather than in exit rates and promises.

The Street is looking for earnings of $0.75 per share on revenue of about $7.09 billion. That would be a 50% jump in profit from the $0.50 earned a year ago, but revenue is expected to rise less than 2%, and both figures sit almost exactly on top of last quarter's $0.74 and $7.03 billion. The Earnings Whisper of $0.85 is meaningfully above consensus, signaling that the more aggressive corner of the market expects a clear beat. That gap is worth noting because management told investors that second-half copper sales should run more than 20% above the first half and gold sales more than 65% higher. A consensus that is essentially flat sequentially either assumes most of that lift lands in the fourth quarter or leaves room for upside if volumes arrive sooner.

The central operating question is Grasberg Block Cave. Production doubled from roughly 34,000 tons per day in April to 69,000 tons by June, already above the reaffirmed second-half target of about 60,000 to 65,000 tons. Holding or exceeding that pace through the quarter would validate the idea that the material-handling bottleneck behind April's cut is solved. Any slippage back toward the low end, or fresh talk of handling constraints, would revive doubts that took a full quarter to quiet. Because Indonesian output carries heavy gold credits, the ramp also feeds directly into unit costs. Management trimmed its 2026 net cash cost estimate to about $1.90 per pound on stronger by-product credits; confirming or lowering that figure would reinforce the narrative, while drifting back toward the earlier $1.95 would suggest the improvement was more about metal prices than execution.

The U.S. business is the quieter strength. Morenci mining rates were running about 30% above their five-year average, and first-half U.S. operating income was 2.4 times the prior year. The offset is input costs, as diesel, sulfur and acid prices tied to Middle East turmoil already forced management to push out its $2.50 per pound U.S. cost target. Updates on leach heated-solution pilots and additive trials, the potential roughly $500 million annual 45X tax credit, and the still-pending Section 232 cathode tariff decision could all shift the domestic outlook.

Capital spending is the main blemish. The Baghdad 2X expansion is now estimated near $4.5 billion, roughly 30% above the 2023 figure, and 2027 capex rose to $4.8 billion. A final board decision is slated for the second half, so any further cost creep or a delayed sanction would weigh on free cash flow expectations. Progress on the Grasberg mine-rights extension application filed in June would be a welcome long-dated offset.

Sentiment has warmed, nearly doubling to about 29% bullish from roughly 15% before the last report, and the stock has gained 11% since July versus 3.2% for the S&P 500. At $69.54 it sits comfortably above its 200-day average of $64.62 but well off its post-earnings high of $80.24, suggesting optimism is building without being stretched. The verdict ultimately rests on whether Grasberg held its June pace and pulled costs down with it. If so, the turnaround narrative graduates into a growth story; if not, April's reset will look less like a bottom and more like a warning.