Grove Collaborative heads into its September-quarter report with a turnaround story that looks better on the income statement than on the customer ledger. Last quarter, management said the revenue trough was behind it, delivered a sliver of sequential growth and posted a third straight quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA. Beneath those headlines, though, the active customer base shrank faster, direct-to-consumer orders fell harder and gross margin slipped. The upcoming release, due after the close on November 10, needs to show whether stabilization can spread from the reported totals into the core business.

The Street is looking for a loss of $0.05 per share on revenue of roughly $37.3 million. That would be a narrower loss than the $0.08 posted a year ago, but a wider one than last quarter's $0.03, a reminder that expectations already build in some cost pressure or noise. Revenue would be down about 14.7% from the $43.7 million reported in the year-ago period. That is still a steep contraction, but a slightly milder one than the nearly 17% decline in the June quarter. Sequentially, the estimate implies growth of about 2%, a modest step up from last quarter's 1%.

That revenue figure lines up closely with management's full-year outlook. Grove raised its fiscal 2026 revenue range to $142.5 million to $152.5 million in the first quarter and held it steady in the second. With about $72.8 million booked in the first half, hitting the midpoint requires roughly $37.3 million per quarter for the rest of the year. In other words, consensus is sitting right on the midpoint pace, not stretching for the top. The low end requires only about $35 million a quarter, so a miss of that size would be notable. The real question is whether management feels confident enough to re-raise after only reaffirming last time. The adjusted EBITDA goal, breakeven to low single-digit millions, also needs continued positive quarters to stay credible.

The quality of any revenue gain matters as much as its size. Last quarter's sequential uptick came from Amazon and QVC rather than the direct-to-consumer business, which actually dipped. Management has pointed to a stronger second half in those wholesale channels, so another non-DTC-led quarter would be on plan but would not answer the bigger worry. Active customers fell to 509,000, down 23.3% from a year earlier, and orders dropped 23.6%. Revenue per order rising more than 6% has cushioned the decline, but higher spend from a shrinking base has limits. Evidence that the new subscription experience, the shift toward upper-funnel advertising or the asset-light dropship push into mattresses and filtration products is slowing attrition would strengthen the narrative considerably. Advertising at just 3.4% of revenue suggests any customer reacceleration remains a work in progress.

Gross margin is the other swing factor. After management described the first quarter's 54.8% as durable, it fell to 53.6% on one-time inventory disposals. A rebound would support the claim that the dip was an anomaly. Another decline would raise questions about pricing and mix. The quarter also spans the departure of CFO Tom Siragusa, so any update on his successor will draw attention.

The stock has gained about 4% since the last report while the S&P 500 slipped 2.5%, yet at $1.05 it remains below its 200-day average of $1.20. It sits in the upper half of its post-earnings range of $0.86 to $1.12, which is below the prior quarter's band. Sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish, so the bar for a relief move is arguably low. Still, the report's verdict will hinge on one thing: whether Grove can show that its customer losses are finally narrowing, rather than relying on wholesale channels and higher order values to hold the revenue line together.