GTM ZoomInfo

NASDAQ
$4.26

ZoomInfo Beats on Revenue and Raises Again, but Retention and Backlog Trends Keep Deteriorating

ZoomInfo (GTM) delivered a third quarter that looks better on the guidance line than in the underlying business. Adjusted earnings of $0.29 per share matched the consensus estimate but fell 3.3% short of the $0.30 Earnings Whisper number, with earnings growth flat year over year. Revenue of $308.8 million beat consensus by 3.1% and topped the high end of management's $298 to $301 million guide. Even so, revenue fell 2.9% from a year ago, a sharp deceleration from roughly 1% growth in each of the prior two quarters. Management raised full-year guidance for a second straight quarter. The central tension is that the raise appears to reflect the quarter's outperformance rolling into the annual number rather than any visible improvement in demand.

The quality of the quarter deserves scrutiny. Adjusted operating income rose 1% to $119.1 million, and the adjusted margin expanded to 39% from 37%, so cost discipline is real. GAAP results were far weaker. GAAP operating income fell 65% to $23.6 million, and diluted GAAP EPS dropped to $0.01 from $0.12. The drag came from $25.0 million in restructuring charges tied to the 2026 Restructuring Program and $27.3 million in litigation costs, largely from the proposed securities settlement. That settlement carries a $44 million payment, partly offset by $25 million in insurance recovery. Adjusted EPS also leaned on the share count. Adjusted net income actually declined to $91.1 million from $95.0 million, and per-share results held up only because diluted shares fell to 317 million from 334 million. Cash generation softened as well. Operating cash flow fell 49% to $47.4 million, and unlevered free cash flow dropped 8% to $87.2 million, with conversion falling to 73% from 98% in the second quarter.

The conference call made the demand picture harder to dismiss:

  • **Upmarket ACV:** Growth slipped to flat, down from +3% in Q2, +5% in Q1 and +6% the quarter before that.
  • **Net revenue retention:** Fell to 88% from 89% and 90% in earlier periods, as software customers bought fewer and smaller upsells.
  • **Downmarket ACV:** The decline widened to 14%.
  • **$100K+ customers:** Cohort ACV growth cooled to 4% from 10% in the first quarter.
  • **Backlog:** Current RPO fell 4% year over year, and next-12-month RPO dropped to $793 million from $849 million in Q2.

The backlog decline is the most forward-looking warning sign in the report. Fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $294 to $297 million implies another year-over-year decline and a sequential step down from Q3.

Management's counterargument rests on product transition and customer quality. Consumption through new surfaces, including the MCP server, CLI and updated API, doubled sequentially across more than 10,000 customers. The GTM1 unified AI platform launches in the fourth quarter, and hybrid pricing is being rolled out more aggressively. Other supporting points include:

  • the Salesforce Hunter flagship data partnership;
  • the acquisitions of 00.ai and WorkBounce;
  • record million-dollar customers;
  • sequential gains in gross retention;
  • win-backs up more than 10%.

CEO Henry Schuck said the company is "approaching the trough." Bears have legitimate ammunition, however. Consumption mostly draws down pre-purchased credits rather than adding new ACV, and some seat-to-credit migrations are renewing flat or down. The AI transition could therefore depress reported metrics before it lifts them.

The balance sheet story is steadier. Net leverage improved to 2.2x for a third consecutive quarterly decline. The company retired $34.8 million of senior notes at a discount and repurchased 2.5 million shares at an average of $2.94. Still, the guidance history tempers the latest raise. The new full-year revenue range of $1.2235 to $1.2265 billion remains below the original $1.247 to $1.267 billion outlook that was cut after the first quarter.

Investor expectations shifted meaningfully ahead of the report. Earnings Whispers sentiment swung from negative (-0.30) to clearly positive (+0.37), a large move. Shares entered the release at $4.24, up 12.2% since the open following the August report. That recovery came off a quarterly low of $3.50 in late September to a high of $4.50 on October 29, leaving the stock about 6% below that peak. The broader trend remains impaired, with shares still 10.7% below the 200-day moving average of $4.75. The AVWAP trend reading is positive, while sequential growth and momentum readings are neutral. That mix fits a rebound that has not yet repaired the longer-term trend. Improved sentiment and a recent rally also raise the bar for a quarter whose EPS fell short of the whisper number.

The bottom line is that ZoomInfo executed well on costs, revenue timing and capital allocation, but the leading indicators that matter most for a subscription business all moved the wrong way. These include upmarket ACV, retention and current RPO. The call preserved a credible AI-platform narrative, and "approaching the trough" is a notable change in tone. Investors will need to see consumption convert into new ACV and backlog stabilize before treating the guidance raises as evidence of a turn.

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