IDACORP delivered a clean third-quarter beat and raised full-year guidance for the second straight quarter. The utility earned $2.73 per diluted share, 8.8% above the $2.51 consensus and up 20.8% from $2.26 a year ago. Revenue of $608.04 million topped the $561.11 million estimate by 8.4% and grew 15.9% year over year. Full-year 2026 guidance moved to $6.40-$6.50 from $6.30-$6.45, a narrower range set above estimates. The central takeaway is that the earnings mix is getting healthier as data-center and industrial load moves from forecast into revenue. The tension is that the same build-out sets up a more demanding 2027, with a rate case, renewed tax-credit support, and more equity.
The quality of the beat holds up better than a typical utility weather or tax story. Net income rose $35.8 million to $160.2 million. The largest driver was a $38.1 million benefit from new Idaho base rates effective January 1. Customer growth added $5.8 million, with the customer count up 2.2% over twelve months, and large contract customers contributed $11.8 million after a new contract began generating revenue June 1. Idaho Power recorded no additional ADITC amortization in the quarter, versus $2.5 million a year ago. The full-year allowance for those credits was cut to under $10 million, down from under $15 million last quarter, under $30 million earlier in the year, and roughly $40 million used in 2025. That is the clearest sign that organic earnings are carrying more of the load. There are softer spots. Plant-related tax flow-through items lowered the tax bill, and lower net power supply expenses and Idaho property tax changes added $10.6 million. O&M rose $22.5 million, though the release says the increase was substantially offset by recovery revenues. Diluted shares also climbed to 58.7 million from 55.1 million, so earnings per share grew more slowly than net income.
The call showed the large-load ramp accelerating. Industrial revenue grew 27% year over year, up from 17% in the second quarter. Large contract customer operating income roughly doubled sequentially, to about $12 million from $6.5 million. The rate and customer-growth benefit climbed to about $44 million, from $32 million in Q2 and $23 million in Q1. Meta's data center began operations in September and is ramping. Weather-normalized sales rose 2.9%, and industrial and special contract sales rose 5.8%. Management's preliminary 2027 resource plan lifts the load-growth CAGR to 8.9% from 8.3%. That plan projects roughly 19,000 GWh in 2027 rising to about 29,000 GWh by 2032, now including Micron Fab 2 and a second, unnamed data center.
The forward catalyst is capital spending. Two company-owned gas plants topped the 2032 RFP shortlist: a 430 MW simple-cycle unit for 2031, with turbines reserved and the EPC contract awarded, and a 432 MW combined-cycle plant for 2032. Neither is in the current roughly $7 billion five-year plan. Management explicitly said that plan understates spending and promised a refresh on the fourth-quarter call. Boardman-to-Hemingway is about 60% erected and on track for late 2027. The pipeline holds near 4 GW, plus roughly 3 GW of new inquiries.
Bears still have legitimate ammunition on what that growth costs. Management now sees a June 2027 general rate case as likely. More than $2.1 billion of construction work is set to enter service, which ends AFUDC income on those projects and raises depreciation. The CFO expects ADITC support to be needed again in 2027, which partly reverses this year's improvement. New self-build projects would be funded roughly half with equity, and the dividend payout may slip below the 50-60% target. Forward equity of about $873 million covers needs into 2028, but it is still dilution. Full-year O&M guidance also rose by $10 million, and the top of the hydro generation range was trimmed again to 6.0 million MWh. Micron's Fab 2 supply agreement remains unsigned, with year-end timing only "hopeful."
Investor sentiment improved meaningfully but remains only mildly positive, rising to 0.24 from 0.08. The stock has not reflected the fundamental progress. At $143.61, shares are down 1.9% since opening at $146.35 after the July report, and they sit just 2.1% above the 200-day moving average of $140.72. Trend readings are mixed: price trend is negative, while AVWAP is positive.
The bottom line is that IDACORP's quarter strengthened the operating case. Large-load revenue is now visible, reliance on tax credits is shrinking, and guidance keeps moving higher. The capital-spending refresh due on the Q4 call is likely to add further upside. The stock's flat performance suggests investors are weighing that against the 2027 costs of the build-out: a rate case, a return of tax-credit support, more equity, and a thinner dividend payout. How that balance looks in the fourth-quarter capital plan will matter more than this beat.