Keel Infrastructure arrives at its third-quarter report with a peculiar problem: the numbers on the income statement barely matter, and the number that matters most is still zero. Management closed the prior quarter sounding more confident than at any point since the pivot away from Bitcoin mining, describing tenant talks that had moved from a pitch to a negotiation across multiple sites. Yet the year-end goal of three signed AI and high-performance computing leases remains unmet, the calendar is running short, and the stock has been cut nearly in half since the last call. This report, due before the open on November 5, is less about earnings and more about whether that confident tone can be converted into contracts.
The Street expects a loss of 7 cents a share on revenue of about $21.5 million. That revenue figure would mark another steep step down from the $30.4 million reported last quarter, which itself was roughly half the year-ago level, as US mining has been fully decommissioned and the legacy revenue base continues to shrink toward very little. The narrower expected loss compared with last quarter's 18 cents largely reflects the absence of the hefty accelerated depreciation charge that inflated the prior period's operating loss, not a genuine improvement in the underlying business. Management has not offered formal financial guidance, so the more useful yardsticks are the operating commitments it laid out last time.
Those commitments start with cost discipline. Cash SG&A has been running near $100 million a year, driven by senior hires, and adjusted EBITDA slid deeper into negative territory last quarter. A business with dwindling revenue and rising overhead is burning into its cushion, which is why the $819 million liquidity position, bolstered by an upsized $458 million convertible offering, is so central to the bull case. Evidence that spending is leveling off, and that cash is being deployed into Panther Creek and Scrubgrass rather than absorbed by corporate costs, would support the idea that the company can fund its build without returning to the capital markets on worse terms, especially with convert spreads having widened.
On the development side, several milestones introduced last quarter deserve a progress check. Sherbrooke was awaiting provincial approval to fold three legacy Bitcoin power agreements into a single 96 megawatt contract for AI workloads, and confirmation there would be a tangible win. Panther Creek's final environmental permits were already running a few months behind, and any further slippage would test management's insistence that a 2027 ready-for-service date and the commercial process remain intact. Moses Lake has already lost a couple of months and an expansion option, so equipment deliveries there and at Sharon need to translate into visible construction progress. Commentary on new President Ganesh Iyer's early impact and any preview of the promised Pennsylvania expansion update would add color, but neither substitutes for a signature.
The market has delivered a harsh verdict in the meantime. The stock has fallen about 42% since the last report while the S&P 500 was essentially flat, and at $2.25 it sits well below its 200-day moving average of $3.92 and not far above its post-earnings low of $2.06. The entire trading range has shifted down from last quarter's band of roughly $3 to $7. Sentiment has edged from slightly bearish to slightly bullish, but the reading is too mild to suggest anyone is pricing in a breakthrough, which arguably lowers the bar for a positive surprise.
That leaves one question that will define the reaction. If Keel can announce a signed lease, or offer credible evidence that one is imminent with an investment-grade counterparty, the shrinking revenue and widening cost base will look like the expected cost of a transition. If the company instead repeats that negotiations are advancing while the three-lease target drifts toward 2027, the market is likely to treat the improved tone from last quarter as optimism that has yet to be earned.