Kaspi.kz heads into its third-quarter report with a narrative that improved last quarter and a revenue target that asks a lot of it. Three months ago, management said the interest-rate cycle that had squeezed its funding costs for roughly two and a half years was finally turning. It also launched an AI shopping assistant and closed its Turkish banking license. The stock briefly rallied toward $110 on that story, then gave nearly all of it back. The November 9 report, due before the open, is the first real chance to see whether the improvement shows up in the numbers.
The Street is looking for earnings of $3.12 per share on revenue of about $2.65 billion. That would mean EPS growth of roughly 15% and revenue growth of 28% from a year ago. The revenue figure stands out. Reported growth slowed to 15% last quarter from 31% in the first quarter, when the HepsiBurada consolidation flattered the comparison. Consensus also implies a sequential jump of more than $300 million from the $2.34 billion posted in the second quarter. The earnings estimate is less demanding. A mid-teens EPS increase roughly matches management's reiterated full-year EBITDA growth target of about 15%. EBITDA was running near 7% through the first half, so the company needs a stronger back half to get there. This quarter should show whether that catch-up has started.
Funding costs are the biggest swing factor. Cost of funding was still up 150 basis points year over year in the second quarter. Cost of risk edged up to 0.7% from 0.6%. Management cut the three-month deposit rate from 20% to 19%, a rate that covers about 30% of deposits, but said the full benefit lands in early 2027. Investors should not expect a dramatic margin swing yet. They should expect funding pressure to stop getting worse. Loan pricing and mix also matter. Fintech revenue grew 23% last quarter against 18% loan growth, because buy-now-pay-later gave way to higher-yielding merchant and general-purpose loans. If that gap holds or widens, the mix shift is working. If it narrows, it was a one-quarter effect.
The marketplace is where the improving tone needs to keep going. The take rate reached 12.1%, up 110 basis points, helped by advertising and delivery. E-commerce GMV rose 28% in constant currency, and value-added services grew nearly 50%. Kasper AI adds a new question. Management said about one in five users adopted it within a month, and most conversations ended in a product recommendation. Only one month of data exists, so any sign that it is lifting purchase frequency or ad revenue would turn an interesting launch into a monetization story. Unanswered questions about its cost would leave it a hope. In Turkey, early traction in the HepsiBurada shopping loan matters, though reported growth remains exposed to a lira that fell 21% against the tenge.
Payments is the weak spot. Total payment value growth slipped to 13%, below the roughly 15% target, and management warned it would slow further as inflation cools. Payments EBITDA fell 1% on investment in pay-by-palm technology. Further slowing would not surprise anyone. A sharper drop, or a falling take rate as the national QR system rolls out, would undercut management's claim that the impact is minimal.
Sentiment has swung from clearly bearish before the last report to modestly bullish now. That raises the bar somewhat. The stock has held up better than the S&P 500 since the last report, slipping 0.2% while the index fell 2.2%. It still sits above its 200-day moving average of about $86. But at $91 it trades near the bottom of its post-earnings range, so the market has priced back much of last quarter's optimism. The central question is whether Kaspi can show that the second half is accelerating toward its 15% EBITDA target without needing another guidance reaffirmation to carry the story.