Alliant Energy heads into its third-quarter report with an unusual amount riding on the outlook rather than the quarter itself. Last time out, management all but promised that this update would bring a refreshed capital plan and possibly a more specific, and perhaps higher, long-term earnings growth target than the 7%-plus it has repeated for four straight calls. The stock, meanwhile, has slipped 3.1% since that report while the S&P 500 gained 3.3%. That leaves the shares as a show-me story heading into the release on October 29 after the close.
The near-term numbers look manageable. Analysts expect earnings of $1.23 a share, up about 9.8% from $1.12 a year ago, on revenue of roughly $1.21 billion, essentially flat with last year. Flat sales paired with high single-digit earnings growth is typical of a regulated utility whose profits track its rate base more than its fuel pass-through revenue. Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $3.36 to $3.46 a share and said it was trending toward the upper half. Full-year consensus sits at $3.43, near the top of the range. In other words, the Street has already taken management at its word, so a quarter that merely lands on target would keep the year on track without adding much cushion.
The operating story to verify is load growth. In the second quarter, Alliant lifted its 2026 retail sales growth forecast to 2% to 3% from about 1%, citing data centers ramping faster than expected and firm demand from Wisconsin commercial, industrial and food processing customers. Weather-adjusted electric sales rose about 3% in the second quarter after a roughly flat first quarter. A third quarter that sustains or improves on that pace would show the raise was not a one-quarter blip. The QTS Cedar Rapids site, which had more than 40 megawatts live with about 300 megawatts slated for energization later this year, plus Google's newly energized service, are the specific ramps that should begin showing up in volumes. Weather is the wildcard. Mild conditions cost about 3 cents a share in the second quarter, and higher first-half operating and maintenance spending added pressure, so summer weather and evidence that cost increases are tapering will decide how much of the upper-half guidance claim holds.
The bigger catalyst is the plan update. Alliant has 3.4 gigawatts contracted across five energy service agreements, a 2 to 4 gigawatt pipeline, a planned filing for QTS's 900 megawatt Clinton project, and roughly $50 million in federal grants for storage projects. A raised capital plan supported by those projects, along with a sharper growth rate, would validate the improving tone. Financing risk looks largely handled: forward equity sales now cover about $1.8 billion of a $2.4 billion need, funding the plan through 2028. If the capital plan grows, the market will want to see how much new equity, if any, comes with it.
What could challenge the narrative is politics. Candidates in both Iowa and Wisconsin have grown more skeptical of data centers, some Wisconsin gubernatorial hopefuls have floated a statewide moratorium, and Linn County has adopted a local one. Management says none of this affects current projects, but any hint of delays, tougher large-load credit terms, or pipeline slippage would weigh on a stock trading below its 200-day moving average of $70.35. Sentiment has cooled from modestly bullish before the last report to slightly bearish now, which suggests skepticism rather than euphoria.
At $68.27, the shares sit in the middle of their post-earnings range of $62.54 to $71.63, well below last quarter's band near $70 to $79. The central question is whether Alliant can turn accelerating data-center demand into a concrete, higher growth commitment while convincing investors that political noise remains only noise.