MYGN Myriad Genetics, Inc.

NASDAQ
$5.92

Myriad Genetics Beats on a Pricing Rebound and Prenatal Exit, but Fading Volume Growth and Widening Losses Keep the Turnaround Unproven

Myriad Genetics delivered the beat it needed after a bruising second-quarter reset. Even so, the quarter is better described as stabilization than recovery. The company reported a loss of $0.21 per share, ahead of the -$0.25 consensus by 16.0%. Revenue of $202.7 million topped the $188.6 million estimate by 7.5%. Management said revenue ran about $10 million above its own internal expectations. The year-over-year comparison is less flattering. Earnings fell 61.5% as the loss widened, and revenue slipped 1.5%. The central tension is that pricing and mix are recovering while the volume engine underneath is losing speed.

Investors should note how the loss figures differ. On a GAAP basis, the net loss widened to $0.46 per share from $0.29 a year ago. Myriad's own adjusted loss was $0.11, which compares with breakeven in the prior-year quarter and a $0.25 loss in Q2. The Earnings Whispers normalized figure sits between the two. Every version shows a weaker year-over-year bottom line.

The real improvement was sequential:

  • Revenue rose 6% from Q2.
  • Average revenue per test jumped 7% sequentially and turned positive year over year at +1%, after falling 9% in Q2.
  • Hereditary cancer revenue per test climbed 9% quarter over quarter, which management credited to payer engagement and revenue cycle work started in Q2.
  • Gross margin recovered 130 basis points sequentially to 67.9%, though that is still 200 basis points below last year.

Costs are moving the other way. Adjusted operating expenses rose $9.9 million year over year, with sales and marketing spending up to $83.9 million from $71.0 million. Adjusted EBITDA was a $5.3 million loss, against a $10.3 million profit a year earlier. Adjusted free cash flow was barely positive at $1.6 million, versus $18.6 million a year ago.

The call made the deceleration hard to ignore:

  • Hereditary cancer testing volume grew 6%, down from 8% in Q2 and 14% in Q1, even though management noted unaffected HCT volume reached a three-year high again.
  • Cancer Care Continuum volume growth slowed to 4% from 6%.
  • GeneSight volume growth eased to 3% from 4% and 7% earlier in the year, and its revenue grew only 2%.
  • Prolaris faces pressure from an NCCN guideline that favors blood-based biomarkers and imaging before biopsy.
  • Management still expects annual HCT price erosion of 1% to 5%, skewing toward 3% to 5%. That makes the Q3 per-test rebound look more like recovered collections than a durable pricing tailwind.

Management's tone did shift noticeably, from Q2's apologetic posture to confident talk of a materially stronger financial profile.

The prenatal divestiture is the transformational piece. Labcorp will pay $210 million in cash plus inventory, roughly 1.3 times trailing revenue, for a business whose revenue fell 12% this quarter on an 11% volume decline. Management expects the exit to lift revenue growth by more than 100 basis points and gross margin by more than 500 basis points. Proceeds could fund debt reduction and growth investments. That matters for the balance sheet:

  • Cash fell to $107.1 million from $149.6 million at year-end.
  • Long-term debt stands at $121.1 million.
  • Available capital has declined each quarter, to $182 million.

Other forward catalysts include interim MONSTAR-SCREEN-3 MRD data and Medicare coverage for Precise MRD in breast cancer, which management expects in the first half of 2027. The "Ascend" efficiency program is also slated for quantification in 2027. The risks are execution-heavy. The deal still needs to close, about 500 employees will transition to Labcorp, and prenatal revenue is already being trimmed about $5 million in Q4 due to deal disruption.

Guidance was narrowed to $780 million to $790 million from $770 million to $790 million. That lifts the midpoint to $785 million. The raise is modest relative to the $90 million cut in Q2, and the range still implies Q4 revenue falling roughly $10 million or more sequentially. Adjusted EBITDA guidance remains suspended.

The market has been far ahead of the fundamentals. Shares opened at $3.10 after the July report, bottomed at a 52-week low of $2.74 in early August, and stood at $6.04 heading into this release. That is a 94.8% gain. The stock sits about 31% above its 200-day moving average and roughly 11% below the $6.77 inter-earnings high set in late October, after the Labcorp deal was announced. Investor sentiment moved the other way, swinging from mildly positive (0.18) to clearly negative (-0.26). That suggests skepticism grew as the rally extended. Supporting trend readings are split, with price and AVWAP trends positive while sequential growth and momentum remain negative.

The bottom line is that Myriad bought itself credibility. It delivered a clean revenue beat, recovered pricing, raised the guidance midpoint and struck a well-priced divestiture that sharpens the oncology story. Bears still have legitimate ammunition: decelerating volumes across every remaining segment, widening losses, negative adjusted EBITDA, lower gross margin than a year ago and an implied Q4 step-down. With the stock having nearly doubled since the last report, the next leg depends on proof that volume growth and profitability can improve together once prenatal is gone.

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