NET Power heads into its third-quarter report with a stock that has lost nearly half its value since the last update and a business plan that looks very different from the one investors were sold a year ago. Last quarter, management dropped carbon capture from the first phase of Project Permian and recast the company as a speed-to-power supplier of unabated natural gas generation for data centers. That was the second major strategic shift in roughly nine months. The release after the close on November 12 is the first real chance to show the pivot is producing something tangible rather than simply buying time.

The numbers themselves are unlikely to drive the reaction. Analysts expect a loss of about $0.05 per share, which compares with a loss of $0.91 last quarter and a reported profit of $5.84 a year ago. The implied swing of roughly 101% looks dramatic, but for a pre-revenue developer the bottom line can be dominated by items unrelated to day-to-day operations, so the year-over-year comparison says little about underlying progress. There is no formal guidance to measure the estimate against, which leaves the cash balance and project milestones as the more meaningful scorecard.

The central question is whether NET Power can convert what it described as unmistakable hyperscaler appetite into a signed contract. After four months of intensive customer engagement, the company still had no offtake agreement. Management did say it was securing roughly 120 megawatts of additional gas equipment alongside a prospective customer, lifting targeted Phase 1 capacity toward 200 megawatts from the 80-megawatt design discussed previously, and it raised the ambition for the Permian site to 1 to 1.5 gigawatts. A definitive agreement with that customer, or even firm detail on the equipment procurement, would validate the argument that a contracted gas plant is more investable and easier to finance. Another quarter of encouraging conversations without signatures would undercut it.

Financing and cost are the next pressure points. Last quarter the company withdrew essentially every quantified anchor it had offered before: the second-half 2026 final investment decision target, the $475 million to $575 million total installed cost, the equity check estimate and the $100 per megawatt-hour pricing goal. Restoring even some of those figures under the new gas-first design would go a long way toward rebuilding credibility. Project-level debt or partner capital also remains unsecured, and cash has slipped from $379 million to about $310 million over three quarters. A stable burn rate matters, but a funding plan for construction matters more. Updates on the revised framework with Entropy, now limited to later phases, and on expanded West Texas land rights with Oxy will help show whether the longer-term clean power option still has substance. Any commentary on Texas legislative scrutiny of data centers, water and grid use is also worth noting, since the strategy depends on behind-the-meter projects being welcomed locally.

The market has rendered its verdict on the last call. Shares are down 44.5% since the prior report, against a 3.1% dip in the S&P 500, and at $0.87 the stock sits less than 10% above its post-earnings low of $0.79 and about half its 200-day moving average of $1.73. The recent range of $0.79 to $2.12 sits entirely below last quarter's $1.35 to $2.51 band. Sentiment is only marginally positive at 4% bullish, which suggests expectations are low but not yet hopeful.

That low bar cuts both ways. A signed offtake or a credible financing path could force a reassessment, while another update heavy on demand commentary and light on commitments would reinforce fears that the strategy keeps shifting without closing. Whether NET Power can show a customer willing to sign is the issue that will decide if the speed-to-power story holds together.