Oatly enters its third-quarter report with a problem most struggling consumer brands would envy: demand is running ahead of plan, but the profits are not keeping up. Three months ago management roughly doubled its full-year growth outlook on accelerating volumes and record US share, yet left its adjusted EBITDA target parked at the low end of its range. The October 28 release, due before the open, is the first real chance to see whether that revenue momentum can survive tougher comparisons and finally start reaching the bottom line.
The Street expects a loss of $0.72 per share on revenue of about $241.2 million. That would be an 8.3% revenue gain from a year ago and a sharp narrowing from the $2.15 loss posted in the same quarter of 2025. It would also leave sales essentially flat with the $240.1 million reported last quarter, which looks like a modest bar given that second-quarter revenue rose 15.2%. Management has already warned that second-half growth will cool against harder comparisons, so a slowdown on its own should not alarm anyone. The more telling gap is on the annual numbers. Oatly now guides to 2026 revenue of roughly $949 million to $970 million, up from about $897 million to $923 million, while full-year consensus sits near $920 million. That puts the Street below the bottom of the company's raised range, implying either that estimates have not fully caught up or that analysts doubt the second half. Either way, a quarter that tracks the guidance rather than the consensus would leave room for upward revisions.
The operating story rests on two engines. North America returned to positive volume for a second straight quarter after a weak 2025, helped by the fading drag from its largest food service customer and by off-cycle retail listings arriving well before the normal reset next February. A third quarter of volume growth there would go a long way toward proving the turnaround is durable rather than a rebound off depressed comparisons, especially because the broader US retail category remains soft. Europe and International, which accelerated to 18% constant-currency growth with expansion markets up 82%, needs to show it can keep compounding as new catalysts such as the expanded Nespresso partnership and the cold foam launch broaden food service reach.
Margins are where the narrative could crack. Gross margin climbed to 33.9% last quarter despite roughly 400 basis points of inflation from fuel-driven logistics and packaging costs tied to the Middle East conflict, and management signaled those pressures would persist. The second-quarter EBITDA improvement of $4 million was less than half the first quarter's gain, reflecting that cost burden plus front-loaded growth spending. If reinvestment was truly concentrated in the second quarter, the third should show better operating leverage. Another shrinking year-over-year EBITDA improvement would raise questions about whether the low end of the $25 million to $35 million target is safe. Any update on the Greater China strategic review, slated for completion by year-end, could also reshape the investment case.
The market has already leaned in. Shares have climbed 23.6% since the last report, beating the S&P 500 by about 21 percentage points, and sentiment has flipped from mildly bearish before the prior print to modestly bullish now. At $12.14 the stock sits above its 200-day moving average of $11.34 but well below the $16.20 post-earnings peak, suggesting enthusiasm has cooled from its high without collapsing.
Ultimately, this report hinges on conversion. Investors largely accept that Oatly is selling more oat milk again. What they need to see is gross margin holding near last quarter's level and EBITDA improvement reaccelerating despite absorbed costs. If that happens alongside revenue consistent with the raised guidance, the turnaround story gains real financial weight. If growth slows and margins slip together, the guidance raise will start to look like expensive volume.