PINS Pinterest, Inc.

NYSE
$19.92

Pinterest Misses Its Own Guide as Growth Slides to 12%, Ending the Re-Acceleration Story Despite Record Users

Pinterest's third quarter broke the re-acceleration narrative that carried the stock through the first half. The company earned $0.46 per share on a non-GAAP basis, missing the $0.50 consensus by 13.2% and falling well short of the $0.53 Earnings Whisper number. Revenue of $1.174 billion missed the $1.20 billion consensus by 2.2% and landed below management's own guidance of $1.19 billion to $1.21 billion, or 13% to 15% growth. Year-over-year earnings growth of 15.0% and revenue growth of 11.9% look respectable in isolation. The trajectory is the problem: revenue growth fell from 18% in Q2, and the fourth-quarter outlook of $1.425 billion to $1.475 billion, or 8% to 12% growth, came in below estimates and implies further deceleration. That is the central development in the quarter.

The quality of the earnings line deserves scrutiny. Non-GAAP net income rose only 3%, to $270 million, so most of the 15% per-share growth came from a smaller share count. Diluted shares fell to 583 million from 695 million after roughly $2.0 billion of year-to-date buybacks, partly funded by a $980 million convertible note issue. The financing has a cost on the GAAP line. Net interest income fell to $6 million from $28.5 million as cash and marketable securities dropped by about $1 billion since December. A tax provision replaced last year's benefit. Together these cut GAAP net income 77%, to $22 million. Adjusted EBITDA of $339 million rose 11% and fell inside the $335 million to $355 million guide, but the 29% margin was down about 30 basis points from a year ago, after expanding 130 basis points in Q2. Share-based compensation climbed to $288 million from $235 million. Free cash flow slipped 6% year over year to $300 million, though it improved from $270 million in Q2.

The call explained where growth went. Management attributed the 6-point deceleration to three factors:

  • about 3 points from cross-border sellers pulling back after the EU removed its de minimis exemption, a larger effect than forecast;
  • about 2 points from Prime Day and World Cup timing;
  • about 1 point from foreign exchange.

Europe took the worst of it. Revenue there was flat (+1% in constant currency), compared with +12% in Q2 and +27% in Q1, and European ARPU fell 7%. U.S. and Canada growth slowed to 14% from 18%, with softness in food, beverage and alcohol, and Rest of World growth cooled to 24% from 38%. Monetization efficiency also weakened: ad impressions grew 17% while ad pricing fell 4%. Management's tone changed accordingly, moving from describing "strong" quarters earlier in the year to saying it was "not happy with that result."

The user story held up, which keeps the longer-term case credible. Monthly active users reached a record 661 million, up 10%, the 13th consecutive record quarter. Management said U.S. engagement, including searches, boards and outbound clicks, is growing faster than users. Several new demand levers are emerging:

  • programmatic partnerships with Google DV360, Amazon DSP and Yahoo DSP, covering roughly two-thirds of the DSP market;
  • Visual Search Ads, a new format in beta;
  • an app-install objective, also in beta;
  • Pinterest Assistant, now generally available in the U.S., where about 80% of searches are commercial.

Management also said core European enterprise growth, excluding cross-border sellers, has re-accelerated quarter-to-date above its Q2 level. Pinterest reaffirmed its roughly 30% full-year adjusted EBITDA margin target.

Bears have legitimate ammunition, however. Management does not expect cross-border spending to return for the holiday season and described recovery timing as uncertain and potentially multi-quarter. Fourth-quarter cost of revenue is expected to rise at a low-teens rate sequentially on GPU investment. The international go-to-market restructuring is still settling in with many new leaders ramping. The finance function is also changing hands: CFO Julia Donnelly is departing, and James Dibbo, formerly CFO of Amazon's ads business, joined only days before the call. Widening the Q4 revenue range to a $50 million spread signals reduced visibility, even if management framed it as prudence.

The market had already priced in some disappointment. Shares closed at $19.92 ahead of the report, down 16.9% from the $23.98 open after the August release and about 4.2% below the 200-day moving average of $20.79. The AVWAP trend reading remains negative. Investor sentiment stayed negative but improved modestly, from -0.25 to -0.20, suggesting expectations were subdued rather than euphoric going in. A guide-down still lands poorly when the stock is already trading below its long-term average.

The bottom line is that Pinterest delivered a quarter where engagement and cash generation held up but the revenue engine stalled. The company missed its own guide, its per-share growth leaned heavily on buybacks, and its Q4 outlook points to growth potentially slipping into single digits. The new ad formats, DSP reach and early European recovery give management a path back. Until cross-border spending stabilizes and ad pricing firms, though, the burden of proof has shifted to execution.

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