Starbucks enters its fiscal fourth-quarter report with an awkward split between its operating story and its stock chart. Management has raised its full-year outlook twice in a row, U.S. comparable sales have accelerated for four straight quarters, and margins have swung from steep contraction to sharp expansion. Yet the shares have fallen about 7.6% since the last report while the S&P 500 gained 5%. The market is asking whether the September quarter can sustain that momentum after two temporary tailwinds fade and the company laps harder traffic comparisons.

Wall Street expects earnings of $0.73 a share, up roughly 40% from $0.52 a year ago, on revenue of about $9.25 billion. That revenue figure implies a 3.3% decline, but it reflects the deconsolidation of China after the Boyu joint venture closed, not weakening demand. The Earnings Whisper of $0.77 sits modestly above consensus, so the informal bar is a bit higher than the published one. The sequential drop from last quarter's $0.85 is also worth noting, since that result was helped by tariff refunds that management said are now largely used up.

Guidance frames the setup. Starbucks lifted its fiscal 2026 EPS range to $2.55 to $2.65 from $2.25 to $2.45, with revenue of $37.18 billion or slightly more. The full-year consensus of $2.41 sits below even the bottom of that range, which suggests some estimates have not caught up with the latest raise. That gap cuts both ways. It means the quarterly number should be read against management's range rather than stale annual estimates, and it means a result that merely matches guidance may not impress buyers who already assume the high end.

The most important figure is U.S. comparable sales. Management guided to fourth-quarter U.S. comps of 6.5% or better and a full-year figure slightly above 6%, after third-quarter growth of 7.9% split evenly between transactions and ticket. Holding near that pace while lapping tougher traffic comparisons and a cautious American consumer would show that the gains reflect better operations, such as faster drink assembly, near-perfect food availability, and the revamped Rewards program, rather than easy comparisons. A comp that slips toward 6% with transactions doing less of the work would raise questions about how long the recovery can last.

Margins are the second test. The 14.4% operating margin last quarter was flattered by tariff refunds, and management pointed to the year-to-date cost-of-goods ratio as the cleaner measure. With refunds largely gone, North America margin expansion needs to come from leverage on higher sales and easing coffee costs, which management expected to be largely immaterial by the fourth quarter. Hitting the full-year consolidated margin target above 11% on that basis would confirm that the inflection is real. Investors should also look for detail on underperforming North American coffeehouses, since management hinted at possible additional closures, and for progress toward the expanded goal of more than 1,500 store uplifts.

Sentiment has cooled slightly from the prior quarter, and the stock sits almost exactly on its 200-day moving average, roughly midway between its post-earnings low of $87.35 and high of $110.51. The market is waiting for evidence. With the fiscal year closing, any early framing of fiscal 2027, including planned investments in new inventory, scheduling and point-of-sale systems and the delivery rollout, will shape how investors value the next leg. The central question is simple: can Starbucks deliver its promised comps and margins on core operations alone? If it can, the stock's slide looks like skepticism the numbers can overcome. If it cannot, the past two guidance raises will look more like a peak than a foundation.