SLNG Stabilis Solutions, Inc.

NASDAQ
$3.81

Stabilis Returns to GAAP Profit as Q2 Trough Passes, but Q4 Dip, Galveston Offtake Slide, and Thin Unrestricted Cash Put the Story on 2027

Stabilis Solutions (SLNG) earned $0.01 per share in the September quarter on revenue of $14.84 million. Earnings fell 83.3% from a year ago and revenue fell 27.0%, so the year-over-year comparison still looks poor. The more important development is sequential. Revenue rose 25% from $11.9 million in the second quarter, net income swung to $0.2 million from a $4.6 million loss, and Adjusted EBITDA climbed to $1.9 million from just $0.1 million. Management described the results as in line with its expectations and said the first quarter marked the low point of the year. The quarter did confirm that the trough has passed. What it did not do is change the core argument: the investment case still depends almost entirely on 2027.

The quality of the rebound deserves scrutiny. Roughly $2.9 million of the $4.8 million sequential improvement in net income came from the absence of the vessel time charter costs that hit the second quarter, not from organic operating gains. The incremental revenue came largely from a short-term data center commissioning contract that began deliveries in August. That contract lifted data center revenue to 17% of the total from less than 1% in the second quarter. Underlying economics did improve. Cost of revenues consumed about 71% of sales, compared with roughly 80% in the second quarter, and SG&A was held at $2.5 million versus $2.8 million a year earlier. Still, operating income before joint venture equity income was only $67,000, which leaves the business with almost no margin for error at this revenue level.

The call is where the setup got more complicated. Management said the commissioning contract will conclude in the fourth quarter without an extension, so fourth-quarter revenue will step down. That reverses the second-quarter call's expectation of improvement in both the third and fourth quarters, along with its suggestion that the contract could run beyond six months. Aerospace remains a genuine bright spot at 49% year-over-year growth, though that is down from 71% in the second quarter, and management acknowledged that some space customers may vertically integrate. Against that, multiple space customers are now negotiating multi-year LNG offtake agreements, something management said last quarter was not yet obtainable. Management also raised the possibility of adding liquefaction capacity.

The main catalyst is intact. The roughly $200 million, two-year bridge-power contract for a U.S. data center remains on track for a mid-first-quarter 2027 start. The customer has now paid the full $25 million in advances, and more than $15 million of equipment is on order. Management repeated its high-teens 2027 Adjusted EBITDA margin framing and said the data center pipeline grew "substantially," with long-term backup power the fastest-growing segment. The caveats are real:

  • **Slow ramp:** the contract does not reach full run-rate until the fourth quarter of 2027.
  • **Uncertain term:** the contract's length depends on when the customer connects to the grid.
  • **Softer 2027 language:** last quarter's explicit statement that 2027 revenue would exceed $100 million was not restated. Management instead referred to a "record 2027" and about $100 million per year from the contract.

Galveston is a clear negative. Committed offtake is now about 25% of the planned 350,000 gallon-per-day capacity, down from the 56% cited in March, when a final investment decision was targeted for the end of that month. There is still no FID timeline, and marine revenue is now framed as 2028 at the earliest.

The balance sheet gives bears legitimate ammunition. Total cash of $18.4 million looks comfortable, but $16.8 million of it is restricted, leaving only $1.5 million unrestricted. That compares with $4.5 million at the end of the second quarter and $7.5 million at year-end. Year-to-date operating cash flow of $23.4 million is flattered by the $25 million in customer advances, now carried as deferred revenue. Capital spending of $11.5 million so far this year is well above last year's pace. The ending commissioning revenue and a fourth-quarter dip will test liquidity until the bridge contract starts generating cash.

Market context is limited. No consensus estimate or investor sentiment reading was available to frame the result. Shares opened at $5.20 after the August report, above a 200-day moving average that now sits at $4.65, but there is no current price to show how the stock has traded since. The report's real test therefore rests on how investors weigh near-term softness against 2027 visibility.

The bottom line is that Stabilis delivered the sequential recovery it promised and kept its transformative data center contract on schedule, with customer cash already in hand. The quarter also brought several setbacks: a fourth-quarter revenue step-down that was not in the prior narrative, slipping Galveston offtake, decelerating aerospace growth, and very little unrestricted cash. The growth story remains credible but increasingly back-end loaded, and investors are being asked to look past another soft quarter to a ramp that does not fully arrive until late 2027.

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