SOPH SOPHiA GENETICS, Inc.

NASDAQ
$7.86

SOPHiA GENETICS Misses on EPS as Dilution and Below-the-Line Costs Offset Revenue Beat and Sharply Narrower EBITDA Loss

SOPHiA GENETICS (SOPH) reported a third-quarter loss of $0.24 per share, well short of the -$0.13 consensus, an 84.6% miss. Revenue of $24.27 million beat the $23.89 million estimate by 1.6% and grew 24.7% year over year. On a per-share basis the loss still narrowed from $0.30 a year ago, which Earnings Whispers counts as 20.0% earnings growth. That framing flatters the quarter. The IFRS net loss was essentially unchanged at $20.3 million versus $20.0 million. The per-share improvement came largely from a bigger share count after this year's follow-on offering and at-the-market sales, which together raised roughly $69 million. That is the central tension: the operating business is scaling, but the improvement is not yet reaching the bottom line shareholders own.

The gap between operating progress and GAAP results sits mostly below gross profit. Operating loss was flat at $17.8 million. Selling and marketing expense rose 22% and G&A rose 7%, roughly absorbing the $3.0 million gain in gross profit. Below the operating line, three items weighed on the quarter:

  • a $1.1 million warrant fair-value charge;
  • $2.8 million of social charges on share-based compensation, more than double last year's $1.3 million;
  • continued Guardant Health litigation expense and $0.5 million of restructuring costs.

Management's preferred metric tells a cleaner story. The adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed 31% year over year to $6.1 million, from $8.8 million in Q2 and $9.2 million in Q1. On the call, management said about 60% of incremental revenue again dropped to the bottom line. Investors should note how much is excluded to get there: stock compensation, the related payroll taxes, litigation and restructuring are all recurring enough to matter.

The call preserved a credible growth story, but the second derivative turned modestly negative.

  • Total revenue growth eased to 25% from 27% in Q2, although constant-currency growth of 26% topped the nine-month pace of 21%.
  • U.S. growth slowed sharply to 41% from 64%.
  • Heme-onc volume growth cooled to 28% from 34%, and rare disease to 29% from 35%.

The offsets were real:

  • record volume of 118,000 analyses;
  • solid tumor volume growth accelerating to 30%;
  • net dollar retention rising to 118% from 117%, with churn below 1%;
  • new logos increasing to 30 from 24;
  • liquid biopsy analyses doubling year over year to 4,200, up 41% sequentially.

Adjusted gross margin recovered to 72.8% from 72.1% in Q2. It remains below the year-ago 73.1% and the FY25 level of 74.2%, and management did not repeat its earlier call for full-year gross margin expansion.

The forward catalysts lean toward 2027:

  • BioPharma deals: a new top-10 BioPharma multimodal AI collaboration in bladder cancer, two AstraZeneca companion diagnostic programs, and Myriad's prostate-specific genomic instability score incorporated into the solid tumor CDx.
  • U.S. wins: PathGroup and UAMS, both expected to ramp in 2027, plus a rare-disease expansion deal worth more than $2 million a year.
  • Visibility: the CFO said about 95% of 2027 growth is already signed.
  • Litigation: the call noted a partial discontinuance of UK infringement claims in October, following a July appeal win, though remaining claims are pending.

The risks are equally concrete:

  • an implementation backlog that delays revenue conversion;
  • planned "bigger bets" on 2027 investment that could test spending discipline;
  • no update on the MSK joint venture.

Guidance moved only modestly. Full-year revenue is now expected at the upper end of the $94-$96 million range, which was already raised at Q2. Management flagged late-quarter currency moves as a potential fourth-quarter headwind if sustained, so this is a nudge rather than a formal raise. The adjusted EBITDA loss outlook of $29-$32 million was reaffirmed, as was the target of positive adjusted EBITDA in the second half of 2027.

The cash picture depends on the comparison point. Cash stood at $93.7 million, up from $70.3 million at year-end thanks to equity raises. The call noted it was down from $107.7 million in the prior quarter. Nine-month operating cash burn of $32.3 million exceeded last year's $27.8 million, so the balance sheet still depends on profitability arriving roughly on schedule.

The market had already been leaning constructive. Shares closed at $7.11 before the report, 17.5% above the opening price after the August release and 19.4% above the 200-day moving average of $5.96. They also sat 20.8% below the 52-week high of $8.98 set in late August, so a meaningful portion of that post-report spike had already been given back. Investor sentiment improved from -0.27 to -0.16 but remains negative, consistent with skepticism that has eased without disappearing. The Earnings Whispers trend readings are mixed: sequential growth and momentum are positive, while AVWAP remains negative.

The bottom line is that SOPHiA delivered a fundamentally better quarter than its headline EPS miss suggests: revenue beat, retention improved, liquid biopsy and BioPharma are gaining traction, and adjusted EBITDA losses keep shrinking. Bears still have legitimate ammunition. GAAP losses are not improving in dollar terms, per-share gains rely on dilution, and growth decelerated in the U.S. and in two core applications. The 2027 profitability target is now the test that matters.

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