S&P Global heads into its third-quarter report with a split personality. Its benchmark franchises, ratings and indices, are running at their fastest pace in years. The slower subscription businesses in energy and market intelligence are struggling to keep up. The October 27 release, due before the opening bell, is the first full quarter without the Mobility division. That makes it the cleanest look yet at whether the leaner company can carry last quarter's momentum.
The headline numbers will look like contraction, but that is mostly arithmetic. Analysts expect GAAP earnings of $4.42 a share on revenue of $3.64 billion, down roughly 6.6% and 6.4% from a year ago. The year-ago quarter still included Mobility. The Earnings Whisper of $4.48 sits modestly above consensus, a hint that some investors expect another beat, though not a dramatic one. Management reset full-year guidance after the spin to $17.50 to $17.75 a share on revenue of $16.24 billion to $16.55 billion, down from $19.40 to $19.65. The reset reflects the divestiture rather than any weakening in the business. Full-year consensus of $18.37 sits above that range, while consensus revenue of $15.56 billion sits below it. That mismatch suggests estimates have not fully settled on a post-spin basis. Expect the guidance update to do as much work as the quarter itself in clarifying the bar.
The bullish case rests on issuance. Second-quarter organic revenue grew 11%, a step up from 9% to 10% in prior periods. Ratings posted a record quarter, with revenue up 17%. Management responded by raising several targets:
Ratings growth to 5% to 8%.
Indices growth to 12% to 14%.
Margin expansion to 75 to 100 basis points.
The hyperscaler debt issuance assumption to $250 billion to $300 billion.
Validation this quarter would mean ratings growth holding well into double digits and continued strength in private markets ratings, which jumped 60%. It would also mean signs that data center and M&A financing kept flowing. Indices, coming off its 13th straight record quarter, needs asset-linked fees to keep pace with market levels. Another nudge higher in either segment's guidance would confirm the benchmark engine is still accelerating. Simply holding the raised ranges would suggest the second quarter was a peak.
The softer spots deserve equal attention. Energy growth slowed to 3% as the Iran conflict complicated renewals with large customers and volatility hurt global trading services. Yet management left its 4.5% to 6% energy outlook intact. That implies a second-half rebound the third quarter must begin to show. Market intelligence is the bigger credibility test. Management had promised subscription acceleration that never arrived, and growth stalled at 6%. Further evidence of longer renewal cycles, or customers balking at AI-related costs, would challenge the idea that new AI products are a growth driver rather than a defensive necessity. Those products include LLM-ready data feeds, where customer counts topped 500. Any decision to carve out subscale MI products could also muddy comparisons.
Capital return adds another layer. The buyback target jumped to more than $7 billion, funded partly with debt that pushes gross leverage to 2.7 to 2.8 times, above the company's 2.0 to 2.5 times target. Updates on repurchase pace and deleveraging plans will matter for per-share math.
The market has not paid much for last quarter's upbeat tone. Shares are up 2.6% since the July report, trailing the S&P 500 slightly. At about $430, the stock sits below its 200-day moving average and roughly 6% under its post-earnings high of $454.92. Sentiment remains bearish, though a touch less so than before the prior report. That restrained setup leaves room for upside if the story holds. The central question is simple. Can ratings and indices keep compounding fast enough to offset energy and market intelligence, while management shows the stalled MI acceleration was a delay rather than a broken promise?