TG Therapeutics delivered a quarter that looks contradictory on its face. Diluted earnings of $0.35 per share topped the $0.28 consensus but fell well short of the $0.44 Earnings Whisper number, a 20.5% miss against the expectations that mattered most to the buy side. Revenue was cleaner: $259.94 million beat the $247.16 million consensus by 5.2% and grew 60.7% year over year. Management also raised full-year guidance for the fourth consecutive call, to approximately $1 billion in global revenue and $915-920 million in U.S. BRIUMVI net revenue. The central tension is that the guidance keeps rising while the reported quarter showed the clearest slowdown in BRIUMVI's growth this year.
The quality of the beat deserves scrutiny. U.S. BRIUMVI sales of $232.6 million rose about 52% year over year, down from 64% in Q2 and 63% in Q1. Sequentially they grew only about 2%, from roughly $228 million, compared with about 17% sequential growth in the prior quarter. License, milestone, royalty and other revenue jumped to $19.9 million from $2.4 million a year ago. That figure includes a $10 million ex-U.S. sales milestone from partner Neuraxpharm, which accounts for a meaningful share of the top-line upside. The reported 85.6% year-over-year earnings decline is largely an accounting artifact: the prior-year quarter included a roughly $365 million non-recurring tax benefit from releasing a valuation allowance. On the operating line, the quarter was strong. Operating income reached $85.9 million versus $21.7 million in Q2, as manufacturing-related spending fell and consolidated gross margin edged up to about 84% while U.S. gross margin held at 87%. Two items kept GAAP EPS below the whisper: interest expense more than doubled year over year to $15.8 million, and the company now carries a normal tax expense.
The call preserved a credible growth story by arguing that the Q3 lull is already reversing. Management cited accelerating new patient starts late in the quarter and into Q4, record hub enrollments, a record month for prescribers in October, and the best hospital months since launch in September and October. Treatment-naive patients now make up about 40% of new starts, versus roughly 25% at launch. That shift suggests BRIUMVI is winning first-line decisions rather than relying only on switches. The guidance math leans heavily on that momentum. Implied fourth-quarter U.S. revenue now exceeds $260 million, up from the more than $250 million exit flagged in August. Reaching it requires a sharp sequential step-up from Q3's $233 million, so the year is notably back-end loaded.
Bears have legitimate ammunition. A competitor has publicly alleged that BRIUMVI's share gains depend on aggressive, unsustainable contracting. Management defended its approach as sustainable but acknowledged ongoing gross-to-net pressure from payer mix and government discounts, while holding gross-to-net guidance at about 65%. Other watch items include:
- 2027 340B changes, which management estimates at about 5% exposure with minimal impact;
- Roche's push to move Ocrevus patients to subcutaneous dosing, with on-body injector data due in 2027;
- a binary subcutaneous BRIUMVI Phase 3 readout around year-end 2026 or early 2027.
On the positive side, the pipeline broadened meaningfully. The ENHANCE results support a single-infusion initiation regimen targeted for mid-2027. Phase 1 subcutaneous data showed roughly 62% bioavailability, supporting a quarterly regimen aimed at a 2028 launch. Seven-year ULTIMATE follow-up showed an annualized relapse rate of 0.018. First Azer-cel CAR-T data in progressive MS showed no dose-limiting toxicities across 26 patients. Operating expense guidance of $450-500 million was reaffirmed, not lowered.
Capital allocation adds another layer. TG repurchased about $100 million of stock in Q3 at an average of $49.43, well above its $33.88 cumulative average, and cash fell to $556.7 million from about $612 million at the end of Q2. Investor sentiment remained negative but improved, rising from -0.26 to -0.18, so skepticism is easing rather than gone. The stock has traded well since the last report. It hit its inter-earnings low of $45.37 the day after the August release, then climbed 17.2% from that report's opening price to $59.83. Shares sit 34.5% above the 200-day moving average and about 6% below the 52-week high of $63.60 set November 2. The Earnings Whispers trend readings are mostly positive, with sequential growth, momentum and AVWAP all positive. Even so, entering the report near the top of the range left limited cushion for a whisper miss.
The bottom line is that TG's quarter was operationally solid but less impressive than the guidance raise implies. Sequential deceleration, milestone-assisted revenue upside and an EPS miss against the whisper sit alongside rising operating leverage, strengthening demand indicators and a fuller catalyst calendar. With shares already near their highs, the investment case now rests on whether Q4 delivers the promised reacceleration and whether the subcutaneous Phase 3 readout validates the next leg of the franchise.