USAS Americas Gold and Silver Corporation

AMEX
$2.50

Americas Gold and Silver Misses as Record Silver Output Collides with Rising Costs and Thinning Liquidity

Americas Gold and Silver (USAS) produced more silver in the third quarter than in any quarter of its 28-year history, yet it missed earnings. The company reported an adjusted loss of $0.02 per share against a consensus estimate for a $0.03 profit, a 166.7% miss. Earnings were flat year over year, while revenue jumped 68.0% to $51.41 million on higher realized prices and record volume. That is the central tension: the ounces are arriving, but costs rose faster than the business could absorb, and the financial trajectory has turned sharply lower since the spring.

The year-over-year comparison flatters the quarter. GAAP net loss narrowed to $5.6 million from $16.5 million, mainly because last year's $13.1 million loss on metals contract liabilities did not recur after those obligations were settled in Q2. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $9.3 million from $1.9 million. The sequential picture is far less comfortable. Against the first quarter, revenue fell from roughly $68 million and adjusted EBITDA from about $34 million. The bottom line swung from roughly $10 million of net income to a loss. Part of that decline was outside management's control, as realized silver fell to $60.54 an ounce from about $80 in Q1. Part of it was self-inflicted. Consolidated all-in sustaining costs reached $42.94 per ounce, and year-to-date AISC stands at $39.16.

Underneath the consolidated figures, the company is effectively two businesses moving in opposite directions. Cosalá is the clear success. Silver output rose 28% year over year to 415,879 ounces as EC120 moved into higher-grade ore. Copper by-product credits pushed cash costs down to $14.51 per ounce from $24.79, and AISC was $25.21. Galena moved the other way. Silver production slipped to 384,579 ounces from 439,580 as the mine kept recovering from second-quarter interruptions. Contractor-heavy capital projects drove cash costs to $44.31 from $25.10 and site AISC to $60.07. Management argues the spending is deliberate. Shaft hoisting has climbed from 40 to more than 100 tons per hour, and remote long-hole mucking is running near 200 tonnes per shift versus about 50 historically. Strong Cosalá output and higher silver prices let the company push waste development ahead of future long-hole panels. That is a credible multi-year story, but it is still being funded rather than earned.

Guidance is where the call raised the most concern. Production is now tracking to the low end of the 3.2-3.6 million ounce range. With about 2.3 million ounces produced year to date, Q4 needs roughly 0.9 million, well above the record just set. On costs, management says AISC will land at the high end of the $30-35 range, even though both the quarter and the year to date are already above it. Investors should treat that statement skeptically until Q4 proves it. The Galena paste fill plant, a key enabler of long-hole mining, slipped from Q4 2026 commissioning to a hoped-for Q1 2027 start. Earlier targets went unaddressed on the call, including the 650 tpd Galena exit rate, the 1,200 tpd mill and the Crescent ramp. Management's tone also turned defensive, leaning on "marathon, not a sprint" framing.

The balance sheet has become part of the story. Cash fell to $63.3 million from $122 million in Q1, and working capital shrank to roughly $21-23 million; the release cites $23.1 million while its reconciliation table shows $21.3 million. Headline liquidity of $113 million includes $50 million of term-loan capacity that depends on meeting certain conditions. Against 2026 capital guidance of $90-120 million and Galena still consuming cash, bears have legitimate ammunition. The company's own cautionary language notes that sustained negative operating cash flow could require debt or equity financing.

The offsets are real but longer-dated. Cosalá infill drilling is returning grades two to three times the modeled resource, including 20.5 meters of 654.7 g/t silver, and could reshape the mine plan from the second half of 2027. Galena has logged six new discoveries in about 18 months.

The market had already turned on the stock before the report. Shares fell 45% from the $5.07 open after the August release to $2.79. That leaves them about 49% below the 200-day moving average and just 4.5% above the 52-week low of $2.67 set on November 3, after a late-August peak of $5.88. Investor sentiment slipped from mildly positive (0.09) to mildly negative (-0.07), a modest shift that is consistent with the selloff. Price and AVWAP trends remain negative.

The bottom line is that Americas delivered the volume growth it promised but not the margins or the guidance confidence that would make the growth self-funding. Cosalá and the drill results support the long-term thesis. However, Galena's costs, the paste-plant delay, guidance pressure and a shrinking cash cushion explain why a stock near its lows still lacks a clean catalyst until Q4 output and 2027 guidance arrive.

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