Three months ago Velo3D told investors it had graduated from turnaround to growth, with demand outrunning its ability to build printers. The stock market has since delivered a brutal verdict: shares have fallen about 66% since that report, while the S&P 500 slipped less than 3%. When the metal 3D printing company reports third-quarter results after the close on November 10, the question is less whether it can hit a revenue number and more whether the profitability story it promised for the second half of 2026 is actually showing up.
On the top line, the bar is modest. Management guided third-quarter revenue to $19.5 million to $20.5 million, and the Street's roughly $19.5 million estimate sits right at the bottom of that range. That math implies essentially flat to slightly lower sales versus the $20.7 million posted in the second quarter, but growth of roughly 43% to 51% from the $13.6 million of a year ago. A print near the top of the range would be welcome, though revenue alone is unlikely to change the conversation. The company already raised its full-year outlook to $65 million to $75 million, and after $34.5 million in the first half, a third quarter around $20 million leaves a wide and achievable runway for the fourth quarter.
The harder test is margins. Management reaffirmed that gross margin would exceed 30% in the back half of the year and that adjusted EBITDA would turn positive. Those are ambitious targets from where the company stands. Second-quarter gross margin improved to 21.5% from 17.2%, but part of that gain came from shifting labor and overhead out of cost of goods and into operating expenses, a reclassification management declined to size. Meanwhile, the adjusted EBITDA loss widened to $8.1 million from $3.6 million as operating expenses jumped to $15.5 million. Getting from that loss to breakeven requires a sizable swing, and investors should scrutinize whether any margin improvement reflects better pricing, mix and absorption, or simply more accounting reshuffling. A higher share of recurring parts and services revenue, which management expects to reach 25% to 30% of sales exiting the year, would be the cleanest evidence of genuine margin progress.
Capacity is the other swing factor. Management argued it needs far more machines than the roughly 25 a year it can currently build, which is why the Livermore campus, slated to become operational in the fourth quarter and to triple capacity, matters so much. Any slippage there would push meaningful revenue capture further into 2027 and 2028. Updates on the $40 million to $50 million capital spending plan, which the company has framed as contingent on financing, will also matter despite the cash pile of $91.1 million after this year's equity raises and debt conversion. Backlog, which stood at $31 million, should ideally hold steady or rise, with follow-through on the Mears Sapphire XC options and the Aurelia turbine partnership offering proof that demand is broadening.
Sentiment has swung from mildly bullish heading into the last report to clearly bearish now, and the chart reflects that pessimism. At $5.73, the stock sits barely above its post-earnings low of $5.60 and far beneath its 200-day moving average near $13.39, a long way from the $17.61 it reached after the last report. That washed-out positioning lowers the bar for a relief move, but it also signals deep skepticism about the company's execution and funding path.
Ultimately, this report hinges on whether Velo3D can show a credible bridge to its second-half profitability targets. Revenue in line with guidance, a gross margin moving toward 30% on a comparable basis, a narrowing EBITDA loss and Livermore on schedule would validate the scaling narrative. Another widening loss or a softened margin commitment would suggest the growth phase is costing more than promised.