Verizon's turnaround has been running on two very different engines. Profitability, churn and capital returns have improved quickly under Dan Schulman, enough for management to raise its outlook early in the year. Reported service revenue, however, has lagged, weighed down by outage credits, promotional costs and tough pricing comparisons. When the carrier reports before the bell on October 26, the central question is whether the top line is finally starting to support the bottom-line story.

Wall Street expects earnings of $1.27 per share on revenue of $34.81 billion. That would be 5% EPS growth and 2.9% revenue growth from a year ago, which is respectable for a mature carrier but not spectacular, especially since the Frontier acquisition is now in the numbers and adds revenue the year-ago quarter did not have. The estimate is also below the $1.30 Verizon earned last quarter. The Earnings Whisper of $1.29 is a couple of cents above consensus, a modest sign that some investors expect another small beat rather than a change in the story. Management's full-year guidance matters more. Verizon now targets $4.99 to $5.04 per share, up from $4.95 to $4.99, while consensus for the year sits at $4.98, just below the bottom of that range. Either analysts are skeptical that the raise holds, or estimates have not fully caught up. A third quarter that keeps the company on pace for the middle of its range would argue for the latter.

The last call gave investors a clear checklist. Management lifted its adjusted EPS growth target to 5% to 6% from 4% to 5% and said postpaid phone net additions should land in the upper half of its 750,000 to 1 million range. Consumer postpaid phone churn fell below 85 basis points exiting the period, reversing years of pressure, and acquisition and retention costs dropped about 35% from the end of last year. Adjusted EBITDA margin reached a record 38.9%, helped by a $5 billion cost-savings program. Continued phone net adds and steady churn would show these gains reflect better execution rather than a temporary lull in competition. A churn rebound, or net adds that depend on heavier promotions, would undercut the claim that Verizon can grow subscribers while spending less to win them.

Revenue is where the narrative is most exposed. Management called the early-2026 dip in wireless service revenue, which fell 1% in the first quarter, the low point of the year, and said mobility and broadband service revenue should grow 2% to 3% annually. With outage credits now behind it, Verizon needs to show clear improvement toward that range. Frontier deserves attention too. The company expects more than $1 billion in run-rate synergies by 2028 and has already repaid half of Frontier's debt, but leverage rose to about 2.6 times from 2.2 times. Progress on debt reduction will matter because it supports the $25 billion buyback authorization, the first repurchase program in more than a decade. Any detail on fiber deals with hyperscalers for AI infrastructure would be a bonus, though it is still more potential than revenue.

The market remains unconvinced. Shares are up 1.6% since the last report, trailing the S&P 500 by 1.7 percentage points, and at $44.79 they sit below the 200-day moving average of $46.59, in the lower half of the post-earnings range of $40.81 to $51.67. Sentiment has also become more bearish than it was before the prior report. That gap between better operations and a lagging stock lowers the bar for a positive reaction if Verizon delivers.

Ultimately, this report is a test of balance. Cost cuts and lower churn have powered the guidance raises so far. For investors to trust a profit outlook that the Street still sits below, Verizon needs to show service revenue recovering from its early-year low while subscriber momentum holds without a return to costly promotions.