WIX Wix.com Ltd.

NASDAQ
$69.75

Wix Tops Estimates as Base44 Nears $250 Million ARR, but a Free-Cash-Flow Cut Exposes the Cost of the Bet

Wix.com delivered a clean headline beat for the third quarter. Non-GAAP earnings of $1.42 per share topped the $1.30 consensus by 16.4% and cleared the more cautious $1.22 Earnings Whisper number. Revenue of $570.17 million edged past the $566.8 million estimate by 0.6% and grew 12.9% year over year. The more important story is the trade-off management is making. Base44, the AI app-building platform Wix acquired in 2025, is scaling faster than planned. To capture that demand, Wix is giving up near-term cash flow, cutting its full-year free-cash-flow margin target to about 16% from the high teens. That is the central tension: the growth engine is outperforming, while the consolidated profit and cash profile keeps getting reset lower to fund it.

The quality of the beat deserves scrutiny. Earnings Whispers' normalized figures show 30.3% earnings growth. The company's own reconciliation tells a less flattering story. Non-GAAP net income fell to $69.3 million from $100.2 million, and diluted non-GAAP EPS was $1.42 versus $1.68 a year ago. Per-share results were heavily supported by a basic share count that dropped to 42.3 million from 55.7 million after this year's $1.6 billion tender offer. That buyback was funded partly by a $500 million credit facility. Non-GAAP operating margin compressed to 12% from 18%, as selling and marketing expense jumped to $193 million from $137 million. On a GAAP basis, the net loss widened to $13.7 million, or $0.32 per share, from $0.6 million. Free cash flow fell to $74.5 million from $127.3 million. Excluding restructuring costs, it was $99.6 million, or 17% of revenue.

Beneath that, the operating trends genuinely improved. The progression in Base44 ARR is striking:

  • about $100 million in early March;
  • $150 million in mid-May;
  • nearly $250 million now.

Cohort quality is following. The first full-year Base44 cohort renewed above expectations, and renewal rates have risen with each subsequent cohort. Annual plans made up more than 20% of the September 2026 cohort, versus roughly 5% a year earlier. Margins are also moving the right way. Base44's non-GAAP gross margin reached 58% from near zero in Q1, helped by Wix's proprietary Base 1 model, and management said free-user AI costs fell more than 50% sequentially. Consolidated non-GAAP gross margin climbed to 69% from 67% in Q2 and 66% in Q1. Management expects Base44 to exit the year above 60% gross margin and approach core-Wix levels in 2027.

The top line is less convincing than the Base44 narrative implies. Bookings grew 11%, lagging 13% revenue growth. Full-year guidance was only reaffirmed at levels already trimmed from the mid-teens outlook Wix offered early in the year. Fourth-quarter revenue growth is guided to low double digits, implying deceleration, with bookings still trailing revenue. Partners revenue grew 11%, but management acknowledged continued softness in the segment and attributed it partly to customers shifting toward AI-native tools, including Base44 itself. That raises a legitimate cannibalization question. Bears also have ammunition in the cash-flow guidance path: from low-to-mid 20s before the tender, to high teens, to roughly 16% now. Add a $10 million fourth-quarter GPU prepayment and open-ended Base44 marketing spend into 2027.

The forward catalysts are real, if still early. Studio Two launched as an open platform that works with ChatGPT, Claude and Cursor and opens a path to enterprise customers and self-hosting. The Symphony multi-agent SMB product already has ARR in the millions. Wix is building its first Base44 enterprise sales team. Nir Zohar's elevation to co-CEO formalizes a long partnership and frees Avishai Abrahami to focus on product and AI. Management's tone was noticeably more confident and growth-oriented than in prior quarters.

Investors are not sharing that confidence. Earnings Whispers sentiment deteriorated from -0.44 to -0.57, deepening an already negative stance. Price action reflects a roundtrip. Shares are up 23.5% from the $56.46 open after the August report, but they peaked at $96.80 on September 1 and now sit 27.9% below that high. At $69.75, the stock is just under its $70.45 200-day moving average. Price and sequential-growth trend readings have turned positive, while AVWAP remains negative, consistent with a stock that has rallied off its lows without recovering its September enthusiasm.

The bottom line is that Wix delivered the Base44 proof points bulls wanted: faster ARR growth, better retention and rapidly improving unit economics. It paid for them with lower operating margins, shrinking cash flow and a per-share beat propped up by a debt-assisted share count reduction. Until rising Base44 ARR shows up in bookings acceleration and Wix puts a ceiling on marketing spend, the market setup is more complicated than the 16.4% surprise implies.

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