WOLF Wolfspeed, Inc.

NYSE
$20.36

Wolfspeed Narrowly Misses on EPS, but a Higher Revenue Guide, a Near-Breakeven Margin Outlook and a Conditional $1.5B Loan Shift the Story

Wolfspeed (WOLF) reported a fiscal first-quarter loss of $2.22 per share, missing the consensus estimate of -$2.18 by 1.8%. Revenue of $155.0 million beat the $150.0 million consensus by 3.3%. The year-over-year comparisons look severe: earnings fell 252.4% and revenue fell 21.2%. The EPS miss is the least important part of the report, though. The quarter matters because Wolfspeed guided revenue above estimates, told investors gross margin should approach breakeven next quarter, and secured a conditional $1.5 billion government loan that would replace its most expensive debt. Set against that, cash is still leaving the business and one of the company's two product lines is still shrinking. That is the central tension.

The headline numbers need careful reading. Because Wolfspeed emerged from Chapter 11 and adopted fresh-start accounting in September 2025, the company says current results are not comparable with prior periods. The share count also fell from about 156 million to 55 million, which distorts any per-share comparison. The release shows a GAAP loss of $2.61 per share and a non-GAAP loss of $2.03, while the normalized figure used for the consensus comparison falls between the two. Either way, the loss remains large.

The operating trend is more encouraging when measured quarter to quarter. Non-GAAP gross margin improved roughly 710 basis points sequentially to about -13%, following readings near -20% in each of the prior two quarters and -34% two quarters before that. Management attributed the gain to higher factory utilization after inventory was reduced. Inventory fell from $234 million to $204 million during the quarter. That margin figure excludes an $11.8 million supply-contract renegotiation fee, so GAAP gross margin was a weaker -22%. Adjusted EBITDA improved to -$55 million from -$62 million.

The call explained where the growth is coming from:

  • Power Products revenue rose 10% sequentially to $117 million, after a 6% gain the prior quarter.
  • AI data center revenue more than doubled year over year on a trailing basis, and management described that order book as accelerating.
  • Materials Products revenue kept sliding, to $38 million from $43 million last quarter and $50 million two quarters ago. It was $65 million a year ago.

The outlook marks a real break from recent quarters. Wolfspeed guided second-quarter revenue to $155–175 million. The prior three calls had each guided to $140–160 million. The company also guided to gross margin approaching breakeven, where earlier guidance said margins would remain negative. That is a sharper change than it might appear: last quarter, management had tied breakeven to roughly an $800 million annual revenue run rate. Management's tone shifted as well, from describing the company as early in its transformation and the business as hard to predict, to calling fiscal 2027 a "turning point."

The balance-sheet catalyst could be just as important. The conditional Department of War commitment includes a $600 million first tranche that would refinance roughly $630 million of first-lien notes carrying a coupon near 16%. Management expects that to save more than $50 million in annual interest and about $100 million in annual cash interest, given a five-year payment-in-kind period, while pushing maturity out to 2056. Additional tranches would fund a move into gallium nitride (GaN) power devices and related RF programs. Other new developments include:

  • a majority-share supply agreement for BorgWarner's next-generation 800V silicon carbide inverter platform;
  • an expanded Infineon wafer agreement that adds 200mm wafers to the existing 150mm supply;
  • the commercial introduction of transparent silicon carbide (T-SiC) for AR, quantum and optical applications;
  • management's observation that silicon carbide lead times and pricing are firming across the industry.

Bears still have legitimate ammunition. The loan is conditional and milestone-based. It is still in due diligence, and drawdowns carry conditions that include limits on raising equity. Operating cash flow worsened to -$84 million from -$54 million, and free cash flow was -$96.5 million. Cash and short-term investments fell to $995 million from $1.09 billion. The working-capital release that supported cash flow over the past five quarters, about $235 million in total, is now largely complete. Operating expense guidance rises to $65–69 million to fund AI data center investment. GaN is a new market for Wolfspeed and has no revenue yet.

The market had not been positioned for good news. Heading into the report, shares traded at $22.42. That is 15.4% below the open after the prior report, nearly 26% below the 200-day moving average, and 38.6% under the early-October inter-earnings high of $36.49. The stock was just 8.4% above the quarter's low, set the day before the snapshot. Earnings Whispers price and AVWAP trend readings are negative. Investor sentiment sat essentially neutral at -0.03, signaling neither enthusiasm nor capitulation.

The bottom line is that Wolfspeed delivered a technically missed quarter with a meaningfully improved forward setup. Rising Power revenue, a credible path to gross-margin breakeven, and a potential refinancing of 16% debt give the turnaround narrative more substance than it had three months ago. Even so, the loan is not finalized, Materials revenue is still eroding, and the cash-flow cushion from working capital is gone. The next two quarters must show that margin gains can turn into slower cash burn.

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