

The following is an update to the first quarter 2025 outlook and gives an overview of our current expectations for the first quarter. Outlooks presented may vary from the actual first quarter 2025 results and are subject to finalisation of those results, which are scheduled to be published on
See appendix for the definition of the non-GAAP measure used and the most comparable GAAP measure.
$ billions | Q4’24 | Q1’25 Outlook | Comment |
Adjusted EBITDA: | |||
Production (kboe/d) | 905 | 910 - 950 | Impacted by unplanned maintenance, including in |
LNG liquefaction volumes (MT) | 7.1 | 6.4 - 6.8 | Reflects weather impact (cyclones) and unplanned maintenance in |
Underlying opex | 1.0 | 0.9 - 1.1 | |
Adjusted Earnings: | |||
Pre-tax depreciation | 1.4 | 1.2 - 1.6 | |
Taxation charge | 0.6 | 0.7 - 1.0 | |
Other Considerations: | |||
Trading & Optimisation results are expected to be in line with Q4’24, despite a higher (non-cash) impact from expiring hedge contracts compared to the previous quarter. |
Upstream
$ billions | Q4’24 | Q1’25 Outlook | Comment |
Adjusted EBITDA: | |||
Production (kboe/d) | 1,859 | 1,790 - 1,890 | |
Underlying opex | 2.5 | 2.1 - 2.7 | |
Adjusted Earnings: | |||
Pre-tax depreciation | 2.8 | 1.9 - 2.5 | |
Taxation charge | 2.6 | 2.4 - 3.2 | |
Other Considerations: | |||
The share of profit / (loss) of joint ventures and associates in Q1’25 is expected to be The Q1’25 outlook reflects the completion of the SPDC divestment in |
Marketing
$ billions | Q4’24 | Q1’25 Outlook | Comment |
Adjusted EBITDA: | |||
Sales volumes (kb/d) | 2,795 | 2,500 - 2,900 | |
Underlying opex | 2.5 | 2.3 - 2.7 | |
Adjusted Earnings: | |||
Pre-tax depreciation | 0.6 | 0.5 - 0.7 | |
Taxation charge | 0.3 | 0.2 - 0.5 | |
Other Considerations: | |||
Combined Mobility & Lubricants results expected to be in line with Q4’24. Overall Marketing results are expected to be impacted by a lower contribution from Sectors & Decarbonisation. |
Chemicals and Products
$ billions | Q4’24 | Q1’25 Outlook | Comment |
Adjusted EBITDA: | |||
Indicative refining margin | | | |
Indicative chemicals margin | | | The Chemicals sub-segment adjusted earnings are expected to be in line with Q4’24. |
Refinery utilisation | 76% | 83% - 87% | |
Chemicals utilisation | 75% | 79% - 83% | |
Underlying opex | 2.1 | 1.8 - 2.2 | |
Adjusted Earnings: | |||
Pre-tax depreciation | 0.9 | 0.8 - 1.0 | |
Taxation charge / (credit) | (0.2) | (0.2) - 0.3 | |
Other Considerations: | |||
Trading & Optimisation in Q1’25 is expected to be significantly higher than Q4’24, in line with Q2’24 and Q3’24 contributions. |
Renewables and Energy Solutions
$ billions | Q4’24 | Q1’25 Outlook | Comment |
Adjusted Earnings | (0.3) | (0.3) - 0.3 |
Corporate
$ billions | Q4’24 | Q1’25 Outlook | Comment |
Adjusted Earnings | (0.4) | (0.6) - (0.4) |
$ billions | Q4’24 | Q1’25 Outlook | Comment |
CFFO: | |||
Tax paid | 2.9 | 2.5 - 3.3 | |
Derivative movements | 0.3 | (2) - 2 | |
Working capital | 2.4 | (5) - 0 | Includes |
Other | |||
The Q1’25 net debt movement will reflect a |
Guidance
The ‘Quarterly Databook’ contains guidance on Indicative Refining Margin, Indicative Chemicals Margin and full-year price and margin sensitivities (Link).
Consensus
The consensus collection for quarterly Adjusted Earnings, Adjusted EBITDA is per the reporting segments and CFFO at a
Appendix
Indicative Margins
Chemicals & Products | Q4’24 | Q1’25 Updated Outlook |
Indicative refining margin | | |
Indicative chemicals margin | | |
Volume Data
Q4’24 Adjusted | Q1’25 QPR Outlook | Q1’25 Updated Outlook | |
Integrated Gas | |||
Production (kboe/d) | 905 | 930 - 990 | 910 - 950 |
LNG liquefaction volumes (MT) | 7.1 | 6.6 - 7.2 | 6.4 - 6.8 |
Upstream | |||
Production (kboe/d) | 1,859 | 1,750 - 1,950 | 1,790 - 1,890 |
Marketing | |||
Sales volumes (kb/d) | 2,795 | 2,500 - 3,000 | 2,500 - 2,900 |
Chemicals & Products | |||
Refinery utilisation | 76% | 80% - 88% | 83% - 87% |
Chemicals utilisation | 75% | 78% - 86% | 79% - 83% |
Underlying Opex
Underlying operating expenses is a measure aimed at facilitating a comparative understanding of performance from period to period by removing the effects of identified items, which, either individually or collectively, can cause volatility, in some cases driven by external factors. For further details see the 4th Quarter 2024 and full year unaudited results (Link).
$ billions | Q4’24 | Q4’24 Adjusted | Q1’25 Updated Outlook |
Production and manufacturing expenses | 5.8 | ||
Selling, distribution and administrative expenses | 3.2 | ||
Research and development | 0.3 | ||
Operating Expenses (Opex) | 9.4 | 9.4 | |
Less: Identified Items | 0.3 | ||
Underlying Opex | 9.1 | ||
of which: | |||
| 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 - 1.1 |
Upstream | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.1 - 2.7 |
Marketing | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.3 - 2.7 |
Chemicals and Products | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.8 - 2.2 |
Renewables and Energy Solutions | 0.8 | 0.7 |
Depreciation, depletion and amortisation
$ billions | Q4’24 | Q4’24 Adjusted | Q1’25 Updated Outlook |
Depreciation, Depletion & Amortisation | 7.5 | 7.5 | |
Less: Identified Items | 1.7 | ||
Pre-tax depreciation (as Adjusted) | 5.8 | ||
of which: | |||
| 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 - 1.6 |
Upstream | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.9 - 2.5 |
Marketing | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.5 - 0.7 |
Chemicals and Products | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.8 - 1.0 |
Renewables and Energy Solutions | 0.5 | 0.1 |
Tax Charge
$ billions | Q4’24 | Q4’24 Adjusted | Q1’25 Updated Outlook |
Taxation Charge | 3.2 | 3.2 | |
Less: Identified Items and Cost of supplies adjustment | (0.2) | ||
Taxation Charge (as Adjusted) | 3.4 | ||
of which: | |||
| 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 - 1.0 |
Upstream | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.4 - 3.2 |
Marketing | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 - 0.5 |
Chemicals and Products | (0.4) | (0.2) | (0.2) - 0.3 |
Renewables and Energy Solutions | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Adjusted Earnings
The “Adjusted Earnings” measure aims to facilitate a comparative understanding of Shell’s financial performance from period to period by removing the effects of oil price changes on inventory carrying amounts and removing the effects of identified items. These items are in some cases driven by external factors and may, either individually or collectively, hinder the comparative understanding of Shell’s financial results from period to period. This measure excludes earnings attributable to non-controlling interest. For further details see the 4th Quarter 2024 and full year unaudited results (Link).
$ billions | Q4’24 | Q4’24 Adjusted | Q1’25 Updated Outlook |
Income/(loss) attributable to | 0.9 | 0.9 | |
Add: Current cost of supplies adjustment attributable to | — | ||
Less: Identified items attributable to | (2.8) | ||
Adjusted Earnings | 3.7 | ||
of which: | |||
Renewables and Energy Solutions | (1.2) | (0.3) | (0.3) - 0.3 |
Corporate | (0.3) | (0.4) | (0.6) - (0.4) |
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This announcement contains forward-looking statements (within the meaning of the
Shell’s net carbon intensity
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Shell’s net-zero emissions target
Shell’s operating plan and outlook are forecasted for a three-year period and ten-year period, respectively, and are updated every year. They reflect the current economic environment and what we can reasonably expect to see over the next three and ten years. Accordingly, the outlook reflects our Scope 1, Scope 2 and NCI targets over the next ten years. However, Shell’s operating plan and outlook cannot reflect our 2050 net-zero emissions target, as this target is outside our planning period. Such future operating plans and outlooks could include changes to our portfolio, efficiency improvements and the use of carbon capture and storage and carbon credits. In the future, as society moves towards net-zero emissions, we expect Shell’s operating plans and outlooks to reflect this movement. However, if society is not net zero in 2050, as of today, there would be significant risk that
Forward-Looking Non-GAAP measures
This announcement may contain certain forward-looking non-GAAP measures such as Adjusted Earnings, Adjusted EBITDA, Cash flow from operating activities excluding working capital movements, Cash capital expenditure, Net debt and Underlying operating expense.
Adjusted Earnings and Adjusted EBITDA are measures used to evaluate Shell’s performance in the period and over time.
The “Adjusted Earnings” and Adjusted EBITDA are measures which aim to facilitate a comparative understanding of Shell’s financial performance from period to period by removing the effects of oil price changes on inventory carrying amounts and removing the effects of identified items.
Adjusted Earnings is defined as income/(loss) attributable to shareholders adjusted for the current cost of supplies and excluding identified items. “Adjusted EBITDA (CCS basis)” is defined as “Income/(loss) for the period” adjusted for current cost of supplies; identified items; tax charge/(credit); depreciation, amortisation and depletion; exploration well write-offs and net interest expense. All items include the non-controlling interest component.
Cash flow from operating activities excluding working capital movements is a measure used by
We are unable to provide a reconciliation of these forward-looking non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures because certain information needed to reconcile those non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures is dependent on future events some of which are outside the control of
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