Breadth Thrust vs Weak Earnings
Monday, March 30, 2020
The breadth is giving a signal that a bottom may be in place, and certainly a number of sectors still have room to bounce, but the optimistic end date is starting to edge farther out and we still have a lot of bad earnings reports coming.
Monday, March 23, 2020
This is the week we get the first truly ugly economic data point, which will tell us that earnings estimates have a long way to go lower before earnings season next month.
Just Farther Out
Monday, March 16, 2020
If anything, the news of the past week has pushed dates out later and, even though sentiment has dropped significantly, there is still room to go lower as analysts cut estimates in the weeks ahead.
Monday, March 9, 2020
There is now a timeline for the peak of COVID-19, but earnings estimates still need to be taken down.
Probably Not Capitulation
Monday, March 2, 2020
There is little evidence in the sentiment data suggesting a capitulation and job losses in the Energy sector, even before the coronavirus took oil prices down, put downside risks to Friday's employment report.
Monday, February 24, 2020
Reminiscences of trading a disaster with Jesse Livermore.
Supportive of Earnings
Tuesday, February 18, 2020
The fundamentals still support earnings in the near-term, but the are some divergences as guidance softens.
Monday, February 10, 2020
Industrial Production will, once again, be a warning sign for the market, but the overall macro data continues to tick higher and as earnings retest their highs with the earnings recession coming to an end.
Monday, February 3, 2020
Payroll data in January strengthened and presents potential upside to estimates to the employment report on Friday (excluding the benchmark revisions).
Monday, January 27, 2020
The overbought condition still likely needs to be worked off, but the trend remains and the economic data scheduled this week should be supportive of stocks... and earnings.