There are a lot of moving parts this week and the economy continues to tick higher while sentiment is low, but the key from here is likely how the market reacts to weakening payroll data on Friday.

Can we go lower if everyone is already selling?

Little has changed except hope... but hope has some room to run here.

The "don't fight the Fed" trade became rather crowded after the Fed told us precisely what it wants to do.

It is a bear market, but there still no recession in sight and even slowing job growth is still growth.

Fed vs. BoJ, Positive Earnings vs. Negative Earnings, Energy vs. Technology... and Apple is somewhere in the middle.

As we head into earnings season, the pieces are now there, but we still have to maintain our rules.

Earnings pre-announcements to start October give us some insight into the coming earnings season, which happens to match up with the recent macro data.

Sentiment has dropped farther, which tells us two things about the current market.

Investor sentiment has fallen to a new cycle low, but that's not the statistical edge you might think.