Durable Goods - the Last Holdout
Tuesday, February 19, 2019
Industrial Production last week matched the weakness in other economic data and now the last holdout of strength is the delayed Durable Goods data to be released this week and next.
Production Remains Positive
Monday, February 11, 2019
Most of the key economic data continues pointing lower, but Industrial Production is not among them and may even slightly surprise to the upside.
Price Action Matters
Monday, February 04, 2019
Despite the large upside surprise in payrolls, economic data and earnings continue primarily trending lower; and sector rotation and earnings favor the recessionary sectors. Still, the price action is telling a different story.
Earnings Trending Lower
Monday, January 28, 2019
While there is a wide margin of error, the consensus estimates for a pullback in nonfarm payrolls appear reasonable... and earnings continue to trend lower.
Tuesday, January 22, 2019
A market pullback would not invalidate a V-shaped bottom, but there are still missing signs as earnings continue to come down.
Monday, January 14, 2019
The breadth thrust indicates a rare V-shaped bottom in the S&P 500, but the macroeconomic data shows economic activity peaked and is trending lower - suggesting weaker earnings that could weigh on stock prices this earnings season.
Curve Has Inverted
Monday, January 07, 2019
The shorter yield curve has inverted, which suggests we are at the beginning of the end for the economic cycle. The statistics still favor stocks after earnings here... but be mindful of the macroeconomic data that points to a peak in September.
Monday, December 31, 2018
The S&P 500 hit roughly right in the middle of our target range suggesting Wave 3 may be over, but the intermediate-term view is the same. Meanwhile, the employment report on Friday has upside potential to estimates
Liquidity vs Macro and Sentiment
Monday, December 17, 2018
Liquidity continues to drain, but macroeconomic data has improved of late, some sentiment measures are at an extreme, and Fed announcements tend to be turning points.
Swing in Sentiment
Monday, December 10, 2018
And just like that, sentiment has swung... and it turns out that means more than we thought