The Fed's rope-a-dope is at risk of catching market participants looking in the wrong direction.

Is a sentiment swing with continued improving fundamentals enough to offset the real market test coming in the next two weeks?

The Fed's liquidity supply may just set up for demand from earnings to allow seasonal factors to take over at the start of earnings season... but there is little reason to change our overall view.

Selling will need to accelerate to keep up with the Fed's plans and payrolls, though unlikely to surprise like last month, should allow the Fed to maintain its plan.

The Fed is set to unwind $8 billion in U.S. Treasuries this week and that has typically been a headwind for stock prices.

The fundamental data, the Fed's activity, the technicals and the breadth, along with some favorable statistics, weren't enough to maintain support... and now it becomes resistance.

The Fed should be supportive for another two weeks and the recent price action gives a statistically favorable two-week trade to go along with it.

The selling pressure created by the Fed last week should be minimal over the next few weeks and there is upside potential to the jobs report on Friday.

Some of the key leading economic data points have weakened over the past month and this is a week the Fed is likely to pull money out of the markets.

While at least some of it isn't going to last, buyers stepped in last week, including the Fed, and now we have a potential pattern to follow.