A rebound in temperatures in September should help Industrial Production improve despite the impact of Irma; and, so far, the Fed's balance sheet is still growing in October despite plans to taper.

The forces of supply and demand are likely to conflict this earnings season and, while the trend is still up, the setup is better in the other direction.

There has been conflicting employment data as the Energy sector showed surprisingly strong hiring in September... and that can be used to support continued outperformance of the small-caps going into the upcoming earnings season

Even though QE ended a couple of years ago, the Fed's balance sheet has continued to grow, but now that is going to change, which would allow stock prices to revert back to the economic data.

The Fed's rate decision is often a turning point for the stock market, at least for the short-term, and this time the focus should be on its balance sheet policy where the Fed's actions continue to contrast with its statements.

Jesse Livermore taught us that disasters take time to impact stocks in a bull market and you don't want to sell too soon.

More money came into the market last week than any other time this year and, while there were buyers across all groups, most of the money went into the Earnings Momentum stocks.

The strong guidance given during the month is more consistent with the start of a bull market than the end, and early employment data suggests this Friday's jobs report will give confirmation.

The bottom-line is there are a lot of topping indications, but no confirmation yet even though a very strong earnings season failed to live up to lofty expectations.

Just a reminder - leading indicators still say we should be sellers of volatility.