"Don't fight the Fed"... but the Fed might not be your friend this week and it comes at a time when investors are less bullish at higher prices... oh, and that chart pattern is a risk too.

There are some expectations for disappointing Industrial Production data, but the key is likely the fact that economic activity has started to improve for the first time since early December and there is still a long way to go as more restrictions ease.

Earnings and earnings estimates are now starting to catch up with the fundamentals, but as the guidance this earnings season tells us, there is still room to go... and the Fed's actions don't hurt either.

The employment report should show a strengthening labor market with upside to consensus estimates and market conditions still favor selling spikes in volatility.

The Durable Goods report should be a favorable fundamental indicator, particularly for the top sector reporting earnings this week - the Industrials - but liquidity is probably the main story as we head into the FOMC announcement.

The economic data suggest continued earnings beats this earnings season - potentially the highest on record - and the COVID data is now pointing to earlier growth for most companies going forward.

More of the same to start January favors more of the same this coming earnings season, with positive earnings surprises and declining volatility.

While the numbers are still skewed, the employment picture appears to have held up in December better than forecast and look for another positive round of "guidance season" in the next couple of weeks.

And now, folks, it's time for "Who do you trust!" Hubba, hubba, hubba! Money, money, money! Who do you trust? Me? I'm giving away free money.

– maybe Jay Powell? ... as the Fed combats virus mutations and lockdowns

Industrial Production for November should provide some fundamental support for stock prices, but key macroeconomic data has softened since the start of December... yet the breadth probably tells the story.