AFYA Afya Limited
$10.33
Afya Limited Q3 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript
AI Conference Call Analysis
Sign in or subscribe to read.Renata Couto
Investor Relations, Afya
Statements related to the business and financial performance, expectations and guidance for future periods or expectations regarding the company's strategic product initiatives and its related benefits. These risks include those more fully described in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The forward-looking statements in this presentation are based on the information available to us as the date hereof. You should not rely on them as predictions of future events, and we disclaim any obligation to update any forward-looking statement except as required by law. In addition, management may reference non-IFRS measures on this call. These measures are not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the results prepared in accordance This presentation reconciles these non-IFRS financial measures to the most directly comparable IFRS financial measures. Now, let me turn the call over to Virgílio Gibbon, FSEO.
Virgílio Gibbon
CEO, Afya
Thank you, Renata, and everyone for joining us today for our third, fourth, and nine-month conference call for 2026 results. This quarter reflects more than financial performance. It demonstrates how our stress continues to position AFIA for sustainable growth, transforming medical education across Brazil. As we continue to train physicians with recognized quality and important accreditations and recognitions, such as SAEMI, DUS-FME and MSCI rating, while maintaining 100% occupancy across all of our medical programs in Brazil. Today I will cover key strategic developments and operational highlights that drove these results. Then Luis Blanco will provide a detailed review of our operational and financial performance. Let's begin with our main highlights and strategic priorities for the quarter. In the third quarter, revenue increased 6% year-over-year to R$ 985 million, while adjusted EBITDA increased 90% to R$ 434 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin reached 44%, an expansion of 100 basis points compared to the same period of the prior year. For the first nine months of 2026, revenue grew almost 7% year-over-year, reaching R$ 2,970,000,000, followed by an adjusted EBITDA growth of almost 5%, reaching R$ 1.3 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 45.5%. Net income reached R$ 634 million, a 7% increase year-over-year, and basic CPX climbed to R$ 6.98. representing a 9% increase reflecting the impact of the Company Share Repurchase Program. We also reported a strong operation cash conversion of 99.5% with R$ 629 million of free cash flow to equity in the nine months of 2026. of which 206 million were generated in the third quarter of 2026. These results reflect the strength of our cash generation, discipline execution, and our continued commitment to creating long-term shareholder value. Moving on to our operational updates. In this quarter, we maintain our leadership position in medical education, supported by 3,785 operating medical seats, reflecting an increase of over 5% over the year. Furthermore, the number of undergrad medical students, which more than 26,000 students, represented 3% growth compared to the same period of the prior year. Additionally, we increase the net average ticks of medical school by 4% every year, which 9,466 has. In continuing education, revenue increased 1% over last year, reaching R$ 209 million, and in medical practice, solution revenue was in line with the same period of the prior year, reaching over R$ 128 million. This lower growth is part of the investment strategy previously announced, aimed to increase the user base in these two segments. In this quarter, we are already seeing 10% growth for in-continue education students compared to the same quarter of the prior year. In medical practice solution, we see a 3% growth in both paying users and mall compared to the previous quarter. Our ecosystem now counts 300,000 users reflecting continuing meaningful penetration among physicians and medical students across the country. Now, moving to slide number four, we will discuss the highlights of our three business segments and our corporate achievements. Starting with the undergrad segment in medicine course, we saw medical school net average tickets rising by 4% year over year. We also continue to deliver strong student-based growth momentum in health science courses. Compared to the previous year, average health science students increased by 18%, reflecting the diversification of our health-related undergrad portfolio. In addition, we secured the authorization of 17 medical additional seats in AFIA Cruzeiro do Sul on September 18th. This approval reinforced our organic growth runway and supports our ability to expand with predictability. The continued education segment was once again marked by strong growth in our total student base, which expanded 10% in the nine months of 2026. B2B revenue for the segment grew 4% compared to the same period last year. In medical practice solutions segment delivered 20% increase in clinical management active payers in nine months. In addition, B2B revenue grew 4% year over year. Lastly, shareholder returns remain a key priority. Our disciplined capital allocation framework continues to create sustainable value for shareholders. At the corporate level, supported by strong cash generation, we return R$459 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchase in the nine months of 2026. To conclude, corporate context, we are glad to announce that we achieved an AA MSCI ESG rating. becoming the highest rated company in the education sector in Latin America while also has achieved a ESG leader status within the diversified consumer service industry. This result shows the strength of our business model and our ecosystem. While creating the foundations, we need to keep growing and unlock the next chapter in the company's history. I'll now turn the call over to Luis Blanco, AFIA CFO, to provide further insight into the financial operation metrics. Thank you.
Luis Blanco
CFO, Afya
Thank you, Virgílio, and good evening, everyone. Starting with the next slide for discussions of key operational metrics by business units. Starting with the undergraduate programs. Our medical student base grew by 3% compared to the first 9 months of 2025, reaching over 26,000 students, while operating medical school seats increased 5% year-over-year to 3,785. Our medical school net average ticket increased by 4%, reaching R$ 9,466 in the nine months of 2026. In addition to our health science and other undergraduate programs, revenue for the undergraduate segments grew by over 7%, totaling R$ 2,642 million. Notably, 85% of this revenue comes from the medical program and 93% from health-related courses, reinforcing our strategic focus and leadership in the sector. On the next page, I will present our continual educational metrics. We approach continual education through three main journeys. Starting with the residency journey, which encompass products focused on the residency preparations, the student base dropped 4% year-over-year to 9,595 students at the end of the period, but increased 4% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting the seasonality of this product. In the graduate journey, which focused on specialization test preparations and graduate medical education, total students increased 2% to 9,386, supported by continued demand for advanced medical training programs. Lastly, other B2 A total growth with a total students up 17% year-over-year to 36,345. Continual educational revenue increased to 209 million reais in the nine-month period of 2026 compared to 208 million in the same period of 2025, representing a growth of 1%. This performance was primarily driven by B2B revenue, which increased over 4% year-over-year to R$195 million, representing 93% of the continued educational revenue. Meanwhile, B2B revenue totaled R$14 million. Moving to the next slide, I will discuss the Medical Practice Solutions operational metrics. Total active payers increased by 2% year-over-year to approximately 206,000, with clinical management active payers growing 20% to 52,000, reflecting continued penetration of AFIA iClinic. Monthly active users reached 219,000 during the period, down 4% year-over-year. Medical Practice Solutions revenue reached R$128 million in the nine months of 2026, broadly in line with the same period of the prior year. On the next slide, we present AFIA ecosystem. We are proud of the meaningful impact of AFIA continues to make across Brazil healthcare ecosystem. By the end of the third quarter of 2026, over 300,000 users were actively engaging with our service and products, reflecting our solid relevance and reach in medical educational and medical solutions. Moving forward, I want to discuss our financial overview for the third quarter and the nine months of 2026. I'm pleased to present another solid set of results for AFIA, reflecting the resilience of our business model and our continued focus on sustainable growth and operational efficiency. Revenue for the third quarter of 2026 reaches R$ 985 million, a 6% increase from the same period from the prior year. For the nine months of 2026, revenue totally R$ 2,970 million, up 7% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA reached R$ 434 million in the third quarter of 2026, up 9% from the prior year. For the nine-month period, adjusted EBITDA totally R$ 1,352 million, up 5% year over year. Adjusted Debit Dar Margin reached 44% in the quarter and 45.5% in the nine-month period. The margin expansions in the quarter was primarily driven by higher gross margins in the undergraduate segments and partially offset by gross margins compression in the continuing educational and medical practice solution segments associated with the ongoing investment cycle in both segments and higher sales and marketing expenses. On the next page, Cash flow operating activities reached R$ 1,333 million in the nine-month period of 2026, compared to R$ 1,291 million in the same period of the prior year, representing a growth of 3%. Cash conversion remained strong at 99.5%, broadly in line with the prior year. Net income for the third quarter of 2026, totally R$ 171 million, up 7% from the same period of the prior year. For the nine months of 2026, net income reaches R$ 634 million, up 7% year-over-year. Earnings per share increased R$ 1.88 in the third quarter of 2026, up 10% from the R$ 1.71 in the prior year period, higher than the net income increase, reflecting the executions of our buyback program. For the nine-month period, earnings per share reached R$ 6.98, up 9% from the R$ 6.40 in the nine-month period of 2025. Overall, these results reflect AFI's abilities to continue generating solid cash flow while delivering consistent growth in profitability and shareholder returns. And now, moving to my last two slides, I will cover our gross debt composition and our cost of debt and our net debt reconciliation. These slides detail the compositions of our gross debt position as of September 2026, covering its maturity profile and average cost of debt. AFIA continues to maintain a solid capital structure and a conservative leverage profile. As of 30 September of 2026, gross debt totaled R$ 2.5 billion. compare to the 2.3 billion reais as of September 2025. At the same time, the average debt durations increased from 1.9 years to 3.7 years, extending our maturity profile in the period. The average cost of debt in 2026 is 15.2% per year, representing approximately 106% of the CDI for the period. On the next page, we can look closely at the net debt variation. Our net debt positions continue to benefit from a solid cash flow from operating activities, which totaled R$ 1,333 million during the period, and largely offset tax investment leases and interest expenses. As of September 2026, our net debt totaled R$ 1.2 billion. Our free cash flow to equity reached R$ 629 million in the first nine months of 2026, including R$ 206 million generated in the third quarter. It's worth mentioning that AFIA disbursed pillar 2 taxations for the first time at the end of July 2026. This strong cash flow generation allowed us to return 459 million reais to shareholders through dividends and share repurchase during the nine month period while reducing our net debt by 170 million reais. AFIA net debt excluding IFRS 16 divided by the midpoint of the 2026 suggested EBITDA guidance is 0.7 times. This concluded our prepared remarks. The nine-month period of 2026 reinforced what we have consistently demonstrated over time. A resilient business, a focused team, and a strategy that is working. We remain deeply committed to advancing the physician journey through our integrated ecosystem and confidence in our ability to deliver sustainable long-term value for our shareholders, students and healthcare professionals across Brazil. The strengths of our ecosystems and the resilience of our business model enable us to continue growth and reinforce our ability to achieve our objectives. I will now open the conference for the Q&A session. Thank you.
Renata Couto
Investor Relations, Afya
If you want to ask a question, please raise your hand. The first question comes from Livia from JP Morgan.
Livia
Analyst, J.P. Morgan
Hi Virgílio, Blanco, Renata. Thank you for the opportunity for making questions. I want to have two questions here. The first one is on the medical segment. Could you give us an update on the competitive environment, especially for the first half of next year intake? I know it's a little bit early at this point, but if you could give us some color would be great. And if you could also comment a little bit on how you see the dynamics for tickets next year. And the second one, we would like to better understand the elements behind the expansion of gross margin in the undergrad segment. Thank you.
Virgílio Gibbon
CEO, Afya
Hi, Livia. It's Virgílio. Thanks for your question. So it's, as you said, it's very early in the process to give a call or how we'll be doing take for 2027 first semester. Regarding the ticket, we passed 5.7% over our gross tuition period. So, we are in very beginning, so kind of optimistic based on what we did on the second semester of 2026. So, this is as regard the competition and the trend for 2027. About the gross margin on undergrad, we saw in this quarter very good results coming from undergrad. We are 100 bps over the same quarter last year. and basically comes also for undergrad the gross margin expanded most of them are very good results also on medical but also on health programs that we continue to have a very high growth on other health programs on our campuses diluting fixed costs and also improving The number of students per class, also combining more health related disciplines between programs, what help us to minimize the faculty cost. So I think this is the overall reason coming from a better gross margin on the third quarter.
Livia
Analyst, J.P. Morgan
Perfect, very clear, thank you.
Renata Couto
Investor Relations, Afya
Next question comes from Flavio from Bank of America.
Flavio
Analyst, Bank of America
Good evening, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. I have two on my side. The first one is on NMH. So I was wondering if you have already had access to any preliminary results or insights from this year's exam. And based on what you have seen so far, if you guys anticipate having to increase investments or costs to better prepare your students for the NMIJ exams in the upcoming years. And my second question is on continuing education. We have been following that the student based growth is not translating into a proportion of revenue growth, right? So I think you guys already mentioned that there's a mixed shift towards short duration and lower ticket courses. So my question here is on when should we expect the monetization of these growing students base evolve or when should we expect revenues per student to stabilize? and also if you still want to continue education, if you could explain what's going on on the B2B revenues that has been decreasing at 30% year over year. Thank you.
Virgílio Gibbon
CEO, Afya
Hi Flavio, actually it's four questions here that I took the note here. First is the preliminary NAMED results. So we don't have any clue from the Minister of Education yet. Everything that we have is based on our internal assessment because we got back the answers from our students and we make the correction and all How is the average of our students compared to the previous NMAD exam? And we were almost 20 percentage points involved. So it was a very good result. Actually, it was 18 percentage points on a simple average. Also doing the normalization, considering our distribution, our student base, we are also having a much better proficiency rates on every campuses. But it's still a preliminary. We are not comparing our students to the entire student base in Brazil. We cannot take this as a consideration. Second, regarding the costs, as you saw, we increased our margins and improved our gross margins, so we didn't have any additional costs from NMADS. We are doing A hundred percent internally we have all the features now that we have the information. We run at least 11 mocks for every campuses and we did a lot of homework for this new step of this new Enamed that the result is at least expected to be released in December. Your third question is about the continued education that we are seeing and growth on students, but revenue is not coming at the same proportion. Yes, we are growing faster than student base. We are seeing a more More critical in terms of conversion, price sensitive physician to enroll in a long duration programs. So the mix effect here is that we have much more student applying for short duration problems, more related to procedure, new technicals for some specialties. And that the consequence directly on that is that the revenue is not come because the tuition It's much lower. So that's the reason of continued education. When we see like a same stores and some maybe 2020, not in 2026, but in 2028, we are aiming to go north and one single digit. It's what we are aiming on continued education in 2027. On B2B, on the B2B revenues, we have like a mixed effect here. We are seeing a strong role on the traditional pharma related contract, but a reduction on the other side, on the other types of B2B contracts related also for providers and other type of institution. So we are seeing that we will be more flat this year over in 2026, but the sales, the sales volume is getting a little bit higher. So we're expecting better results for 2028. Fourth quarter will be actually the same trend that we are seeing for the entire year. Okay. So I think I captured all the four questions, not two.
Luis Blanco
CFO, Afya
Just if I may add something here, Virgílio, to Flavio, in the B2B side from Educom, where we see the decrease year over year, it's more related to the test prep. www.patreon.com.br The three phases test, one for the second year, the fourth year and the last test in the sixth year. So I think it's an opportunity to recover these B2B signs from the Ducon.
Renata Couto
Investor Relations, Afya
Yeah. And regarding the B2B of SPM is the one that we are seeing the sales increasing.
Flavio
Analyst, Bank of America
Okay. All right. Thank you a lot.
Renata Couto
Investor Relations, Afya
Of course. Next question comes from Felipe Amancio from Itaú BBR.
Felipe Amancio
Analyst, Itaú BBA
Hi, good evening, everyone. Two questions from my side. The first one is on profitability. We noticed a margin increase in the quarter, mostly driven by the undergraduates. You already commented about this in your last answer, but if you could comment a bit better, if this changes your expectations for profitability gains for next year, and also what are the main levers that you envision in this segment? And my second question is also on profitability. We notice here a greater net revenue decrease on continuing education and medical practice solutions. I would like to understand how much of this profitability increase that we observed this quarter could be explained by this revenue mix. Thank you.
Luis Blanco
CFO, Afya
Hi, Philippe. It's Blanco here. I'll take the questions. The first, regarding the profitability for these years, we will deliver the guidance that we provided to the markets in the beginning of the year. So, we had a decrease in the first two quarters. Julio Eduardo Razente de Angeli, Virgílio Deloy Capobianco Gibbon, Renata Couto Blanco We will deliver the guidance for 2027 when we release the 2026 results in March. Regarding the mix of segments affecting The profitability in general, what we have is that undergrads represents roughly 86% of our net revenue. So if we get more profitability coming from the segments, it will cover the participation from Educom and SPM that we have, the decrease in the period in the period. That's why these major participations from the undergrad more than covers the margins that were down in Educon and SPM. Perfect. Thank you for the answers.
Renata Couto
Investor Relations, Afya
Thank you. The next question comes from Lucas Nagano from Morgan Stallick.
Lucas Nagano
Analyst, Morgan Stanley
Hi, Renata, Virgílio Blanco, thanks. We have two questions. The first is related to working capital. There's an upward trend in receivable days. Is this explained by a higher share of FIAS and private funding? And if yes, should we expect this trend to continue into next year? And the second is related to CAPEX. There's a reasonable gap between year-to-date CAPEX and the lower end of the guidance. The question is if this guidance is realistic or if not, is it a matter of postponing investments or should investments be indeed lower? Thank you.
Luis Blanco
CFO, Afya
Renata, it's Blanco. I'm going to take your questions regarding the working capital. What is pushing our working capital? What is pushing our working capital is the trade receivables and inside of the receivables we are We are having an increase in the FIAS, so we have an increase of 64% in FIAS, 64% of the FIAS if you compare to December. This is roughly 90 million reais in the periods that these push hours receivables are up In the period talking ahead about FIES, we don't have the expectations to increase the positions of FIES. We are around 22% of the medical students using FIES as of the third quarter. We don't expect to increase these positions going ahead. Regarding CAPEX, you are right, we are a little bit lower than our expected CAPEX for the period, but our expectations that we're going to achieve the guidance that we provided that is between 340 to 380 million reais in the year.
Virgílio Gibbon
CEO, Afya
Just to add a point here, Lucas, regarding the FIAS, when you compare the schedule of FIAS on the second semester of 2026 with the first semester or the previous year, we are in a much later trend. All the amendments are still working. Thank you very much.
Luis Blanco
CFO, Afya
But all of them are just important just to highlight that even then with this increase in receivables, if we compare our cash flow from operating activities with our EBITDA, our cash conversions is 100% in the first nine months, of course. Okay, thank you.
Renata Couto
Investor Relations, Afya
Okay, since we do not have any more questions, I thank you all for participating. Thank you and have a good night.