ALX Alexanders Inc.

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Alexanders Inc. Q3 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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Nick
Conference Operator
thank you for holding your conference will begin in five minutes thank you for your patience
Michael Lewis
Analyst, Truist
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Good morning.
Nick
Conference Operator
and welcome to the Vornado Realty Trust third quarter 2026 earnings call. My name is Nick and I will be your operator for today's call. This call is being recorded for replay purposes. All lines are in a listen-only mode. Our speakers will address your questions at the end of the presentation during the question-and-answer session. At that time, please press star, then 1 on your touch-tone phone. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Steve Borenstein, Executive Vice President and Corporation Counsel. Please go ahead.
Steven Borenstein
Executive Vice President and Corporate Counsel, Vornado Realty Trust
Steve Borenstein, Executive Vice President and Corporation Counsel Welcome to Vornado Realty Trust's Third Quarter Earnings Call. Yesterday afternoon, we issued our Third Quarter Earnings Release and filed our quarterly report on Form 10-Q with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These documents, as well as our supplemental financial information package, are available on our website, www.bno.com, under the Investor Relations section. In these documents and during today's call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in our earnings release, Form 10-Q, and financial supplements. Please be aware that statements made during this call may be deemed forward-looking statements and actual results may differ materially from these statements due to a variety of risks, uncertainties, and other factors. Please refer to our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, for more information regarding these risks and uncertainties. The call may include time-sensitive information that may be accurate only as of today's date. The company does not undertake a duty to update any forward-looking statements. On the call today from management for our opening comments are Steven Roth, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Michael Franco, President and Chief Financial Officer. Our senior team is also present and available for questions. I will now turn the call over to Steven Roth.
Steven Roth
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. On behalf of my hardworking colleagues at Vernado, it is my pleasure to welcome you to our third quarter call. Today is Election Day. Elections matter, our democracy matters, and your vote matters. New Yorkers are choosing a governor, and across the country, voters are choosing a Congress. We have a system of early voting, mail-in voting, and in-person voting. Please make sure that you vote. If you work at Vernado, you are entitled to half a day off to facilitate your voting. We have a lot to talk about this morning, but first I want to mention something that is important to me and should be important to all of us. Two Wednesdays ago, Daryl and I attended the inaugural Blue Square Alliance Against Hate Benefit Gala. Blue Square is an organization created by Robert Kraft in 2019 in reaction to the very disturbing increase in anti-Semitism across America, and that now combats hate of all kinds. Robert Kraft is a 5'7'' giant. He is self-funding this organization, and Daryl and I believe we should all follow his lead. Now to business. We had another excellent quarter with eye-catching mark-to-market results and same-store growth. Comparable FFO was $0.65, up $0.08 or 14% from last year's third quarter, and $0.02 ahead of analysts' consensus. In a few minutes, Michael will review all the numbers in detail, but first let me cover some highlights. the last New York office company to report so we can see the competitive playing field clearly in front of us. Everyone's metrics were pretty good, but our metrics were outstanding in first place, and second place was not even close. As we have been predicting on these calls for the past nine quarters, everyone, and I mean everyone, analysts, investors, the press, and even out-of-town office companies, now agree that the New York market is by far the strongest in the country, and maybe even the strongest that it's ever been. As I have said over and over, we compete in a market of about 180 million square foot Class A better buildings where demand for space is accelerating and the availability of good space is quickly evaporating. We are most definitely in a landlord's market and most importantly, tenants and brokers know it and are acting accordingly. Economics 101 says that with demand surging and supply not keeping pace, Rents will rise, and they are, and there is no end in sight. $200 and $300 rents are now common in the conversation. Overall, Manhattan office leasing volume is up more than 9% from last year, and total leasing in 2026 is on pace to reach the highest total since 2000. During the third quarter, overall Manhattan office leasing was a strong 10 million square feet, exceeding both the five-year and 10-year quarterly averages. and Tammy Tennis took the lead this quarter with 27% of deal volume. And by the way, there are more postings for AI jobs in New York than any other market in the country by a wide margin. Vacancy in the 180 million square foot Class A better building market in which we compete continues to tighten and is now down to the mid-single digits. There is a serious shortage of large blocks in the better buildings and new supply is minimal takes as long as five years to deliver and requires rents upwards of $300 per square foot to pencil. Given these dynamics, we expect Class A rents to continue to grow well into the next decade. That tells you everything about the strength of the demand in our market. I couldn't be more bullish. And by the way, the 10-year Treasury run-up to 5% may be impeding the supply of new bills, but it seems to be having absolutely no effect on tenant demand. Renato's best-in-class assets and ability to attract and retain an outstanding roster of tenants, including many of the world's leading companies, continues to set the standard for the New York office market. With the investments that we've made throughout the years and over the past year in such assets as Park Avenue Plaza, 623 Fifth Avenue, and 350 Park, we now have a concentration of premier assets around the two most important transportation hubs in the city, in the Penn District and in the Plaza Park Avenue District. No other investable company has both. Our portfolio of assets with best-in-class amenities is exactly what tenants are seeking, and we continue to achieve market-leading rents and very significant mark-to-market results. Here is our scorecard. In the first nine months of 2026, we leased 1.6 million square feet company-wide. for Manhattan office, we leased 1.15 million square feet at $113 per square foot average starting rents with mark to markets of 23.5% gap and 16.8% cash. As you will hear in the next paragraph, these metrics are accelerating as rents continue to rise even quarter by quarter. As I mentioned during our last call, these mark to market stats do not include our leasing activity at Penn II We're following our transformation. We are achieving rents that are about double the old rents. That would translate to 100% mark to markets. But our numbers do include all of our assets, even our few clunkers. Everyone has clunkers, even us. No cherry picking for us. In the fourth quarter, we will recognize the 1.05 million square foot Citadel lease, and so we can now forecast that Manhattan office leasing for the full year 2026 should be about 2.4 million square feet. In the third quarter in Manhattan, we executed 30 office deals totaling 489,000 square feet at an industry-leading average starting rent of $123 per square foot with an average term of 9.5 years. Mark the markets for a whopping 37.2% gap and 25.9% cash. Our budgets show that this strong performance will continue through 2028. This quarter, our New York office same-store NOI was up 11.9% gap and 8.7% cash. Our New York street retail same-store NOI was up 8.4% gap and 9.3% cash. Our New York business overall, which includes Alexander's, was up 10.2% gap and 4.9% cash, or 8.4% cash if excluding Bloomberg's rent abatement at 731 Lexington and that we advance forward five years for tax reasons. Our signed leases that are not yet included in our gap results are 204 million of revenue, which, since the taxes and operating expenses are already included at the building level, will almost entirely drop to the bottom line. This will feed into our income over the next five or so quarters. Phase one of our award-winning transformation and redevelopment of the Penn District is now complete. with the new Moynihan Train Hall, Metis 730,000 square foot Moynihan Office Complex, the new and expanded and fully re-tenanted Long Island Railroad Concourse, the adjacent food hall and 70 new or reconstructed food and beverage offerings, the 33rd Street Pedestrian Plaza, and the fully transformed and super amenitized 2.5 million square foot Pen 1 and 1.8 million square foot Pen 2. So this is a good time to render a report card. Capital spent to create all this was $2.5 billion, on budget and very well worth it. As you remember, we pre-funded the capital required here, which turned out to be prescient. We continue to have no debt on the major Penn District assets. Since fraud of physical redevelopment at Penn One, we have leased 1.8 million square feet at average starting rents of $98. During the third quarter at PennOne, we executed 10 deals totaling 248,000 square feet at average starting rents of $123 and an average mark-to-market of 40%. The office space here is now 96% leased. Note that roughly 10% of PennOne rolls each year, so we will keep marching old rents up the market. This includes 400,000 square feet of currently paying only $68 per square foot, which rolls over the next three years, plus another 83,000 square feet of vacancy to lease. So there's much growth still to come here. At the 1.8 million square foot Penn II, we have leased over 1.6 million square feet since project inception, putting us at 92% occupied with availability now of only 150,000 square feet. Rents at Penn II continue to exceed even our own optimistic expectations with deal makings now squarely in the $125 to $135 square foot range. Tour activity and proposals across the remaining space remain at robust levels. We continue to escalate our rents here to match market demand. We have created something truly unique at Penn. Together with our neighbors, Manhattan West and Hudson Yards, we are part of the new west side of Manhattan, as well as being our own city within a city. Most importantly, tenants and the public love what we have done. Now, the financial benefits of all this are enormous. Old rents will rise to market, and importantly, Penn's current market rents will rise to the levels at Manhattan West and Hudson Yards, and we are seeing that happen day by day. Phase one may be complete, but we continue to invest in the transformation of the Penn District. We will develop the tired, old, and junky retail on both sides of Seventh Avenue and along 34th Street into attractive, modern, and exciting retail offerings. This is the gateway to our Penn District, and a transformation here will have big impact. We will also develop a 480-unit residential building on our 34th Street and 8th Avenue site, Catty Quarter, Des Moines, and Train Hall. Both of these projects will begin physical construction early next year. Phase 2 at Penn District will be every bit as exciting and productive and will include Penn 15 and various other potential sites. There's a lot of chatter in the industry about fee income and a lot of Blackstone and Brookfield envy in REIT land. We have our fair share of fee income. but even better than that, I want to call attention to two of our high growth businesses that get little attention. First, we have the largest and best sign business in Manhattan which has grown at 5% CAGR over the last 10 years and 16% CAGR for the last five years. Our sign concentrations are on the two best blocks in Times Square Bowtie where we own 50% with our retail JV partners and in the Penn District where we own it all. By the way, Penn is the principal contributor to the five-year CAGR and now, at share, produces nearly double the income of Times Square for us. What differentiates our sign business from others is, of course, our unique high-traffic real estate and that we own all the signs which are attached to the real estate that we own. There are no leases, no expiration dates, no renewals, which equates to high margins and high values. Further, we are one of the few landlords that own our cleaning and security business, which services all of our buildings, giving us better control and better profits. Together, these two capital light businesses currently produce $120 million of income, and they are growers. We have recently added to our holdings in the Plaza Park Avenue District, with the acquisitions of 623 Fifth Avenue, Park Avenue Plaza, 3 East 54th Street, and 350 Park Avenue. which adds to 1290 Avenue, the Americas, 280 Park Avenue, 640 Fifth Avenue, 689 Fifth Avenue, 655 Fifth Avenue, 697 Fifth Avenue, and 595 Madison Avenue. Our 623 Fifth Avenue development project, spectacularly well located on top of Saks Fifth Avenue, is on schedule. We will deliver to tenants in the fourth quarter of 2027. We signed our first lease here with a financial services firm for 31,000 square feet across two floors at an on-budget starting rent close to $200 a foot. The market reception to this high-end, hospitality-driven project designed by Forster & Partners has been terrific. Tour volume is very strong, and we are currently negotiating multiple other deals. In May, we acquired a 49% interest in Park Avenue Plaza for $950 per square foot. which taking advantage of a low interest rate loan through 2030 will yield an 8% cash on cash return. This is a building with blue chip tenants. We love the low basis here and even more so we love the below market rents. Good things are happening here as we speak. In a milestone event just after quarter end in October, we formally closed the 350 Park Avenue joint venture with Ken Griffin as our 60% financial partner, Vernado owning 36%, and the Rudin family owning the remaining 4%. Simultaneously, we closed on a $3.3 million construction loan, which is a record for an office deal, and a $1.05 million square foot lease with Ken Griffin Citadels. we disclose on page 21 of our financial supplement the cost and returns of this project. Our return on cost is over 9%. Note that this is an unlevered return. The levered return is over 13%. Our 350 Park Avenue Tower is being designed by the same Forster and Partners team that designed the new J.P. Morgan headquarters down the block. 350 is huge at 1.9 million rentable square feet and topping out at 1,400 feet. Citadel has an early call option to grow by an additional up to 330,000 square feet, with the early bidding be that they will take it all. That leaves 520,000 square foot of 20 floors of column-free, high ceiling, floor-to-ceiling windowed space at the very top of the building, actually beginning 850 feet in the air. all with majestic 360-degree panographic views up to the park and down to the harbor. Glenn and his team will be leasing this space on behalf of the venture. I hope you all saw our full-page ad in the Wall Street Journal last Thursday announcing the project and clearly showing the available block. This block is the best available space on offer, and we are bringing it to market at exactly the right time. and I must say Ken has been a perfect partner and his team as well. Ken has been personally involved in all major design decisions to create the most efficient workspace and world-class aesthetics. At our two million square foot, 1290 Avenue of the Americas, many of you have toured our new amenity space and recognize them as best in class and tenants are reacting accordingly. Since inception of our hospitality-driven transformation focused on our new pavilion and outdoor terrace space on the 17th floor, we have leased 650,000 square feet to new tenants at rents that are leading the pack on 6th Avenue. The building is currently 97% occupied with an upcoming opportunistic expiry of 240,000 square feet next year where we have lots of activity. We acquired 1290 and 555 California Street in 2007 at the same time. 1290 is now the best building on Avenue of the Americas, and 555 California Street is the best building in San Francisco. Michael will have the pleasure of reporting to you the extraordinary leasing success of 555 California, validating its leadership in the market. In the For What It's Worth Department, I think NAB is a meaningful metric. Green Street has our NAV at $56 a share, which means our stock price trades at a 38% discount, the deepest discount in our office group. Last quarter, I told you we were in conversations to sell two assets, which would substantially increase our liquidity. Both are well advanced, and we expect to report more on our next call. We all thought that the monster Wall Street law firms were forever institutions and credit worthy to boot. But as I read in the recent news, this is apparently not the case. But more relevant to us is that law firms hourly billing rates have now risen to unreasonable levels. We need to fix that and we are beginning to focus. I end with this. Halloween was a couple of days ago. I have a 10 year old grandson who is a trick or treater. We just switched over to daylight savings time, and all my friends are heading down to Florida for the winter. Thanksgiving is a few weeks away. Thanksgiving is a unique American holiday celebrated with a family feast. Since I have been boss, we have celebrated Thanksgiving by giving every single employee, no matter their rank, a Thanksgiving turkey. In the beginning, we were a small New Jersey suburban company. Everybody drove to work, so we loaded frozen turkeys onto a truck and handed them out one by one. This is no longer possible today since we now have thousands of employees and everyone commutes to work using mass transit. So we now give out a money voucher sufficient to buy a turkey and all the fixings. I must say I find this many decades old tradition very personally satisfying. Happy Thanksgiving to everybody. Now over to Michael.
Michael Franco
President and Chief Financial Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. Third quarter comparable FFO was $0.65 per share compared to $0.57 per share for last year's third quarter, an increase of 14% or $0.08. This increase was primarily due to higher FFO resulting from rent commencements primarily of PEN1 and PEN2 net of lease expirations, higher FFO from our acquisition of Park Avenue Plaza, and higher NOI from signage revenue, partially offset by higher net interest expense largely due to the increase in rate on our 2033 senior unsecured bonds versus the retired bonds. We have provided a quarter-over-quarter bridge on page three of our earnings release and on page seven of our financial supplement. As Steve said, and it is worth repeating, this quarter our New York office same-store NOI was up 11.9% gap and 8.7% cash. Our New York Street retail same-store NOI was up 8.4% gap and 9.3% cash. Overall, our New York business was up 10.2% gap and 4.9% cash, or more accurately, 8.4% cash excluding Bloomberg's renovate at 731 Lexington Avenue, which we accelerated for tax reasons. Based on our 2027 budget, we expect these strong same store growth numbers to continue through next year. In terms of our earnings outlook, as we have previously mentioned, Full year 2026 comparable FFO will be higher than 2025. While we are still in the process of finalizing our 2027 budget, we still expect the current quarter to be a reasonable run rate through 2027, notwithstanding the additional impact of taking income offline to effectuate the 34th and 7th retail redevelopment and from a higher interest rate environment. As indicated on our previous calls, we expect significant additional growth in 2028 and beyond. Turning to occupancy, our New York office occupancy increased 80 basis points this quarter to 93%, up from 88.4% at this time last year. Last quarter, we said we expected to be north of 93% by year end, so we are already ahead of plan. In addition to the just-completed 1.05 million square foot Citadel lease at 350 Park, a New York office leasing pipeline remains strong with another 1.1 million square feet. As we look toward the year end, we project that total office leasing in New York should be about 2.4 million square feet for 2026, which comes on the heels of our 3.7 million square feet of leasing in 2025. To put it simply, we are firing on all cylinders at Vornado. We are now laser-focused on leasing 623 Fifth and 350 Park. Speaking of 350 Park, we believe this is a big win not just for Vornado, but also for New York. The project delivers on the promise of the Greater East Midtown Rezoning, an idea that Steve first proposed in his 2009 Chairman's Letter after returning from London and seeing what that city had done, and then it was championed by others here. Our project contributed a combined $150 million towards the upkeep of St. Patrick's Cathedral and St. Bartholomew's Church through the purchase of their development rights. plus more than $35 million for the city's East Midtown Public Realm Improvement Fund, which will help fund the Park Avenue malls. And with the robust demand for and scarcity of trophy office space available, the new 350 Park will serve a growing need by the world's leading companies who need premium space to attract and retain talent here. At the end of the day, though, it's all about the money, and the transaction is enormously attractive to Vornado as a developer and owner-operator. With our land marked up to the $900 million contribution value, the project pencils to a 9.2% return on cost to Bornado, as you can see on page 21 in our supplemental. Assuming we don't bring in any capital partners, our incremental capital investment of $290 million will start in the middle of 2028 with a bulk in 2029 through 2031. We cannot be more excited about this project and the value it will create for our shareholders. The retail market continues to experience healthy activity as well. There is strong demand for the best locations, and rents have returned close to or at peak levels. We signed a 10-year renewal with Sephora and Times Square this quarter, and we had significant activity out of their Times Square asset, 1540 Broadway. Our pipeline is strong for Fifth Avenue and the Penn District also. In San Francisco, our 555 California Street complex, the best building in town. continues to lead a market that is coming back fast. San Francisco tenant demand is at a record 8.4 million square feet, of which 60% is from AI and tech, and asking rents are up almost 10% year over year. This quarter released 55,000 square feet and an average starting rent of $163 per square foot, our highest ever, with mark-to-markets of positive 59% gap and positive 38% cash. Year-to-date, we have leased 166,000 square feet, and we have another 155,000 square feet of deals pending. Turning to the capital markets, the backdrop has gotten more volatile over the past couple of months, but the markets remain open for quality New York assets. CMBS spreads have widened modestly, but New York Class A office refinancings continue to be very well received. The unsecured bond market remains open for office res also. Our 2033 bonds now trade about 160 basis points over Treasuries, 30 to 40 basis points tighter than in April, so all in new issue rates are higher given the higher base rates. Given the recent volatility and moving rates, we're pleased we completed over $4 billion in refinancings early in the year when the markets were more favorable. In the investment sales market, the pace of transactions has slowed, and pricing has been impacted a bit with the sharp jump in rates. The capital remains very interested in New York, and deals are getting done. Finally, turning to our balance sheet, our liquidity is $1.9 billion, comprised of $724 billion of cash and restricted cash, and $1.2 billion of undrawn credit lines. With that, I'll turn it over to the operator for Q&A.
Steven Roth
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
Okay.
Nick
Conference Operator
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you have a question, please press star, then 1 on your touchtone phone. If you wish to be removed from the queue, please press star, then 2. If you are using a speakerphone, you may need to pick up the handset first before pressing the numbers. Once again, if you have a question, please press star, then 1 on your touchtone phone. Each caller will be allowed to ask a question and a follow-up question before we move on to the next caller. The first question will come from Flores Vandecombe with Ladenburg Thalmann. Please go ahead.
Floris van Dijkum
Analyst, Ladenburg Thalmann
Morning, guys. Thanks for taking my question. A couple of things I wanted to ask you. Steve, I was actually very intrigued by your comments on the retail market. Obviously, your New York retail same store was up over 9%. Maybe if you could touch on There's still a lot of vacancy in your New York retail. What was the peak occupancy and what kind of, I mean, ballpark here, is there like a 90 million, almost 100 million NOI upside getting back to peak occupancy? Could you maybe talk a little bit more about what you see happening in the retail portfolio?
Steven Roth
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
Good morning, Flores. Thanks. So, Tom or Michael, if we lease up all of the vacancies in the retail portfolio, how much income does that generate? That's really Flores' question.
Thomas D'Arcy
Senior Vice President and Controller, Vornado Realty Trust
I would say it's approximately $50 million.
Michael Franco
President and Chief Financial Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
Yes, I was going to say about $50 million.
Steven Roth
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
About $50 million. I think it's more than that, but my financial geniuses think that if we get to 100% occupancy or stabilized occupancy in retail... that would increase our income by $50 million.
Floris van Dijkum
Analyst, Ladenburg Thalmann
Great. That's helpful. That's certainly incremental, you know, to where we stand today. The other question I had is, obviously, you've got some pretty exciting development projects, and you've got potential capital required for 15 Penn as well. You've got, I think, 360 million of unencumbered NOI. as you think about how will you potentially fund the capital that's required to build out this massive project at 15 Penn. How do you think about sources and uses for that?
Steven Roth
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
Well, before we get to 15 Penn, we've got a lot of unbelievable stuff on our plate. So we've got 623 Fifth Avenue. We've got, obviously, 350 Park Avenue, What am I forgetting? 34th and 8th. 34th and 8th. We've got the 8th Avenue apartment house. So we have multiple new high growth projects on our plate. All of that is already funded. We have capital allocated for everything that we're doing that we have already started. So that's behind us. 50 and Penn is a project that when we, I mean, you know, it's probably a fair amount of time away. As we get into it, we will capitalize it, okay? We haven't decided how we're going to do it yet, because it's really not, it's not pregnant yet.
Nick
Conference Operator
The next question will come from Steve Sakwa with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
Steve Sakwa
Analyst, Evercore ISI
Yes, thanks. Good morning. Michael, I guess I wanted to just go back to some comments that you made. You talked about the kind of sign but not occupied, a little over $200 million, which is kind of roughly a buck or so in incremental FFO. But it sounds like there's some offsets. I guess there's this 1290 move out. There's some of the retail you're taking offline. Are there other just kind of move outs that might be known in the first half of the year that kind of might be weighing down the near-term earnings trajectory that, you know, as you backfill that space, kind of provides more upside in the 28?
Michael Franco
President and Chief Financial Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
Yeah, I think, warning, Steve, you know, there are a few things. Look, I think the magnitude of the 200, I think, is pretty staggering and reflects, in particular, the success of Penn. You know, the offsets are, like, we're in the normal, you know, leasing business. There's going to be expiries and move-outs in particular. We've got 1290, as you said, 330 West 34th, Pewitt 8887. We're taking the retail offline at 34th and 7th and also taking the sign-off line, which we decided to do recently, given, we think, the greater potential we're going to bring back. So that'll take a little more income offline next year than we originally anticipated. And then we're going to have... with rates being higher, you know, that probably has a, let's call it a 10 cent impact next year. So, you know, those are the big picture items, but eventually, you know, that'll all get leased back up and that'll flow through over time.
Steven Roth
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
Okay, great. The fact is that the pipeline, the financial pipeline of having 200 odd million dollars of signed, in the bag, revenue that will flow through our income statement over the next five quarters or whatever. Nobody has anything like that, and it's a testament to the enormous success of our Penn District project and a testament also to that we will have by far the highest growth in our segment, by far. And I guess that's one of the reasons why we have a multiple that shows that. So we're pretty proud of all that.
Steve Sakwa
Analyst, Evercore ISI
Great. Thanks, Steve, for that follow-up. Maybe just one for Glenn, just kind of on the overall leasing pipeline and just sort of tenant activity and just sort of what is kind of the tenant mindset today, given strong profitability out of the corporates, maybe offset a little bit by uncertainty over just kind of the AI workforce, like what are tenants telling you and how far out are you starting to see tenants coming to you for renewals in places like New York and San Francisco?
Glen Weiss
Executive Vice President, Vornado Realty Trust
We've never seen it as strong as it is right now, not even close. Every industry class, every property, tenants are rapid for space, lots of expansions, and AI has complemented that. There's been a lot of AI leasing, a lot of AI job growth in Manhattan, so we've never seen a better In addition, tenants are less rent sensitive than I've ever seen and are less sensitive about length of term as well. So that's all voting great for our business.
Nick
Conference Operator
The next question will come from John Kim with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
John Kim
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets
Thank you. Steve, I wanted to ask on your, I guess, your statement that lease spreads will continue through 2028. This quarter was at 26% on a cash basis. I'm wondering if there were leases in a couple of buildings that drove that figure higher or that widespread throughout your portfolio. And can these lease spreads extend beyond 2028? The number 2028,
Steven Roth
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
I focused on because that's really the length of our planning process, two years out, two and a half years out. So, you know, I can't tell you what's going to happen in 2029 and 2030 because our budgets don't yet extend out to that period.
Michael Franco
President and Chief Financial Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
But I would say, John, got a couple things to tack on. I think Steve, in his remarks, referenced the mark to markets either at Penn or at Penn One. You know, Penn One We are consistently achieving mark-to-markets in excess of the 26%, again, reflecting the transformation there. And if you think about what's happening in the market generally, where rents are going up, let's just say 5% to 10%. I think they're going up higher for the higher quality. So let's just use 5% to 10%. If that continues, and given the minute amount of new supply, we certainly think that is going to continue, maybe even accelerate. There's going to be an increasing gap between what's expiring and where the market is. So while we don't put hard numbers beyond 2028, that sort of gap and potential mark-to-market should absolutely remain a strong possibility.
John Kim
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets
Okay, and then my second question, I know you don't like to discuss guidance, but Michael, you did mention that this quarter is a good run rate for next year. That would put you at about $2.60, but you also talked about higher interest rates and recovery developments of tightwinds. But that's still about $0.28 above 2025's FFO, so it's below the $0.40 uplift previously discussed for 27. I'm wondering if what's happened besides interest rates that caused that, you know, that perceived shortfall.
Michael Franco
President and Chief Financial Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
I'm sorry, Jay, say you're a little mumbled. Say that again.
John Kim
Analyst, BMO Capital Markets
It's like it's a shortfall from the $0.40 previously indicated for 2027 growth. I know some of that was pulled forward at 26, but.
Michael Franco
President and Chief Financial Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
Yeah, I don't know that that's really the case, John. You know, some of that got pulled forward to this year. I think relative from, you know, last year to 27, I think it's still sort of similar magnitude. There's been some positives, some negatives, right? I mentioned taking a little bit more offline in 30, 14, 7, higher rates. At the same time, you have some positive leasing fundamentals. So net-net, I don't know that that's really, we've changed that view at all.
Nick
Conference Operator
The next question will come from Nicholas Ulico with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
Nicholas Yulico
Analyst, Scotiabank
Thanks. I just wanted to turn to 350 Park, and if you could just maybe tell us, you know, from a modeling standpoint, if we could think about, like, the accounting treatment that's going to start in the fourth quarter, any nuances to think about there and how it could sort of incrementally impact FFO? Thanks.
Thomas D'Arcy
Senior Vice President and Controller, Vornado Realty Trust
Yeah, so this is Tom. In terms of the accounting, we're basically going to capitalize all expenses and interest. And I think we said this previously on a couple of calls earlier this year that it's basically going to be a similar run rate where we were getting prior to the JV. So there really isn't going to be anything happening other than we believe we're going to capitalize interest and cost and some development fee income is going to come in as well. And that should be approximately what we were getting prior to the structure. Let's use the one with the gold stuff.
Nicholas Yulico
Analyst, Scotiabank
Okay, thanks. And then second question is maybe you could just talk a little bit more about, you know, the leasing interest at 623 Fifth based on the deals you've done so far, sort of, you know, types of tenants and how are you thinking about, you know, are you pushing rents even further now for that building? Thanks.
Glen Weiss
Executive Vice President, Vornado Realty Trust
Hi, it's Glenn. So, yes, we continue to push rents. Their weekly tour volume is enormous. It's a financial service building. Think private equity. Think hedge fund types. Fink Family Shops, et cetera. So we've signed our first lease. We have another one coming very soon and others behind that. So, you know, with the paucity of good supply in the plaza district, it's the perfect time for 623. You know, construction's underway, and our timing's really good there. So we're feeling better and better as we go. Yeah.
Nick
Conference Operator
The next question will come from Yana Galan with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Jana Galan
Analyst, Bank of America
Thank you. Good morning and congrats on the strong results. Following up on the comments on the signage and the cleaning and security businesses, could there be opportunities to kind of monetize these in the future?
Steven Roth
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
These businesses are very valuable. I would say that with respect to cleaning, we think cleaning is a strategic combination with owning the assets. We think that owning the cleaning business together with the real estate is a big, big plus. So I don't see selling that or monetizing that in the future. The sign business, which is an unbelievably interesting asset-like business, which is growing like a weed. Right now, I'd rather hold the income for growth than monetize it, although it has enormous value. So if a sign business has the better part of $100 million of income and growing, so you figure out what the multiple might be. And so it's a very, very, very valuable asset that right now we're in the growing business, not in the selling business.
Jana Galan
Analyst, Bank of America
Thank you, Steve. and then maybe just some of the apartment projects that's starting next year, if you could maybe share kind of expected yields and then when maybe that could start delivering units.
Michael Franco
President and Chief Financial Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
Have we published the... No, we're going to publish the year-end, Jana, so wait a little bit longer. You don't want to give the lady a break and shadow it? I'd rather, you know, see what the numbers look like based on the final budget. So, you know, wait two or three months. Yeah, we already have the final budget, but that's okay. And we're going to probably deliver units late 28, early 29. 29. 29.
Nick
Conference Operator
The next question will come from Dylan Brzezinski with Green Street. Please go ahead.
Floris van Dijkum
Analyst, Ladenburg Thalmann
Please go ahead.
Dylan Burzinski
Analyst, Green Street
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. Steve, you mentioned having two assets in the advanced stages of the sale process. Are you able to share any light on what the potential total proceeds can be? Has pricing throughout those discussions changed at all now that rates are higher? Can you talk about the bidding tent, just anything like that?
Steven Roth
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
Not really. The proceeds If all goes well, and there's no assurance of that, for both of them will be over a billion dollars of new free cash. Obviously, earnings will be nicked a little bit because we're taking earnings out of the system. Pricing has wobbled a little bit, as you would expect, as interest rates have risen.
Dylan Burzinski
Analyst, Green Street
Appreciate that, Keller. And then maybe just as it relates to, you know, use of proceeds. I mean, I know in the past you've mentioned that you view the stock as sort of very, very cheap. So is that a potential opportunity? Are you guys going to sort of save cash for the balance sheet given some of the development? Can you kind of just talk about sort of the use of those proceeds?
Steven Roth
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
It's premature to talk about what we would do from a capital allocation point of view with money that we don't yet have in the house. but I can tell you, as I said a few minutes ago, that the capital program that's in process now has already been handled. So I look upon this capital as being pretty much available for opportunistic investment, buy back stock, make investments, whatever. But when we're not at that point yet, when we get at that point, then we'll make you aware of it.
Nick
Conference Operator
The next question will come from Vikram Malhotra with Mizuho. Please go ahead.
Vikram Malhotra
Analyst, Mizuho
Morning. Thanks for the questions. I guess just first I wanted to go back to the run rate you alluded to into 27 and maybe into 28. Just to clarify, you mentioned sort of a good run rate but then there are offsetting factors like interest expense. Did you mean that run rate and then we need an XSAT run rate for those offsetting factors or that's sort of a good net number to think about going to 27? Because it kind of felt like a little bit of a push out of the growth you've been calling for into 27 now into 28. Could you just clarify that?
Michael Franco
President and Chief Financial Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
Yeah. Morning, Vikram. Just that's a net number. So that factors everything in.
Vikram Malhotra
Analyst, Mizuho
So that would be for the higher interest expense, any asset sales you may do or anything else, any, uh, you know, known move outs that you have as of, you know, as of today, that, that would be sort of the true, like a good run rate in the 27. All right. Okay. Um, and then just on the street retail, I guess, bigger picture opportunity, you know, a, would you have a sense or give us some comms? Like how, how should we value? The business today like I know there are very few marks for how to think about cap rates for your asset type or your quality of assets and then maybe any bigger picture like numbers around the bigger redevelopment because you've talked about a bigger opportunity at Penn Station and I don't know if there are others as well but just how should we think about a potential NOI uplift?
Michael Franco
President and Chief Financial Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
Look, on the street retail, You know, what we own is absolutely unique, right? The Fifth Avenue assets are, you know, when you think about the number of assets that are not owned by users or landmarks or whatnot, right, there are very few blocks available on Fifth Avenue for lease or for sale. And we own a handful. So those are scarce, very valuable assets. and there's a reason they don't trade often because, you know, because they're like that. So, you know, you saw the Uniqlo transaction we did which was, you know, a very low cap rate and I think Fifth Avenue continues to command those type of cap rates, you know, and they continue to attract user interest at, you know, I would definitely tell you sub 5% cap rates and it could be much more aggressive than that. You know, Times Square, again, what we have there is, you know, the two blessed blocks, you know, dead center bow tie with signage attached to it, you know, probably the most world famous signage in the world and the numbers that come off that are significant. So, again, that has not really been tested, but those are going to come in premium cap rates too. So those are, you know, those are the absolute pinnacle in terms of what retail values are and will be. and, you know, I think the rental market has recovered significantly as well back to where rents are, you know, basically back to either at peak or pretty close to peak there. Your second one, I didn't quite understand, Penn Station in terms of, I think, the retail opportunity, you know, redeveloping the 34th and 7th corridor. We have, you know, significant aspirations for that, both the retail and the signage. There's still other retail opportunities to come out in other pockets, whether it's what we're going to do at 34th and 8th, still in the concourse, et cetera. I can't give you a precise number. I'll have to aggregate that. So rather than guess, we'll come back on that. But we think the opportunity is meaningful. And that, in addition, I think just helps drive office rents as well. The more we placemake there and create that unique atmosphere, which I think we've done with all the restaurants, F&B we put in, that's going to continue to accrue to the office rents which we're achieving. Again, I think it's worth pausing on when you think about the numbers that we are achieving in PEN1, PEN2, $125, $135 a foot rents relative to where we originally published those budgets. We are well ahead. That's what we aspire to eventually. We've gotten there quicker and there's a lot more room to run in terms of the office rents.
Nick
Conference Operator
The next question will come from Anthony Pallone with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Anthony Paolone
Analyst, J.P. Morgan
Great. Thanks. So first question, Michael, just on this 27 and the trajectory that you're talking about, it seemed like the prior expectation was maybe something in the 270s for next year, and it now seems about 10, 15 cents inside of that. So wondering as you think about this two-year planning that you all do, Should some of that come back in 28 and sort of the trajectory I think a lot of folks have been anticipating is still intact, or is that kind of 10 to 15 cents implicitly that it seems to be coming in here a little bit going to persist because of interest costs or whatever the case may be?
Michael Franco
President and Chief Financial Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
Just to be clear, Tony, when I think it was Vikram's question, the net number sort of factors all that in. So I'm not sort of backing off what I said last quarter, 10 to 15 cents. I think the sort of run rate continues, and the run rate beyond that in terms of what we look at in growth is quite significant. So I'm not going to give you precise numbers, but I'm looking at a latest budget that factors everything in, some higher interest rate, We roll over debt or hedges or whatnot, and that significant growth remains intact, and I'm not backing up 27-0.
Anthony Paolone
Analyst, J.P. Morgan
Okay. Thank you for that. And then second one, maybe for Glenn, just as you talked about a lot of the leasing and how aggressive the tenants are being with taking down space, what's your sense as to what the utilization of the space is today versus are tenants increasingly taking Space, just trying to understand what they're thinking of as they plan for their space needs.
Glen Weiss
Executive Vice President, Vornado Realty Trust
Look, I think utilization is now at least four days a week, if not five, particularly in New York and particularly in our buildings. Our buildings are humming just as they were in 2019. And in terms of growth, you're seeing a lot of growth out of the law firms, out of the financial companies, out of the tech. I mean, everywhere you're seeing growth. and then, you know, with the lack of available supply that's good space, you're seeing renewal activity increase and tenants accelerating those discussions now, which allows us, you know, to get into deal mode, benefiting us much earlier than we had been, you know, a year or two, three years ago. So utilization's very high. Growth is very accelerated and the renewal market is now, you know, robust because there's just no space out there that you know, worth looking at for a lot of these tenants.
Michael Franco
President and Chief Financial Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
Tony, before we let you go, I've got to give you the gold star for today. Your 350 park analysis, while it wasn't 100% dead on, it was pretty close, so kudos for your analysis.
Nick
Conference Operator
The next question will come from Seth Berge with the City. Please go ahead.
Seth Bergey
Analyst, Citi
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to touch on kind of the 2027 expiration schedule. What proportion of the space is kind of currently under active discussion for leasing? And I guess just more broadly with the tightening availability of high-quality space in New York, are you starting to see tenants address expirations earlier just to secure their space given the tightening of availability?
Glen Weiss
Executive Vice President, Vornado Realty Trust
Yes, on your second point, I just discussed that, you know, absolutely there's an acceleration on renewal discussions, very much so. We're seeing that across the board. The major expirations for 27, you know, we have action on all of it. We have a little over a million feet, you know, coming available. You know, we have good action, good market to market, really strong starting rents, a lot of activity as you would expect in this type of market.
Seth Bergey
Analyst, Citi
And then just with, again, kind of some of the leasing momentum that you're seeing within New York, are you seeing any changes to kind of lease economics, specifically just with respect to TIs or free rent that you're offering?
Glen Weiss
Executive Vice President, Vornado Realty Trust
You know, we are. We're seeing, you know, a bunch of things. Number one, rents are going up a lot. The tenants are rent sensitive. Number two, terms are lengthening longer, much longer. which is also a very good thing. We are seeing TIs tighten and free rents tighten. It depends a lot on the term of the lease and also the rent. So on the TIs, you know, a new construction where you're seeing these rents at $300 plus, you're seeing higher TIs. But on the bread and butter lease, you know, TIs are tightening, free rent as well, but, you know, much more so what we're seeing is rents are up and terms are longer, which is very important.
Nick
Conference Operator
The next question will come from Michael Lewis with Truist. Please go ahead.
Michael Lewis
Analyst, Truist
Great. Thank you. I was going to ask about 350 Park. You know, how should we think about the upside or downside risk left in that 9.2% projected cash yield? So obviously you have leasing and rent assumptions, but also, you know, construction costs that aren't locked. Just thinking about upside or downside in the underwriting there. And then I guess not in the unlevered number, but are you expecting to hedge interest rate risk as well or do you expect to hedge that?
Michael Franco
President and Chief Financial Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
So, look, I think the most important point is, you know, we have an anchor tenant lease for a little over a million square feet, which, you know, ensures a pretty attractive outcome. So the question is, you know, what's the spec space going to lease for? That's, of course, a risk we know we're taking. And, you know, that spec space is at the top of the building. It's going to be the best space in the marketplace. So we're bullish about that opportunity. And, you know, I think there's certainly upside in what we projected. Of course, the market can change its downside. But with the anchor tenant lease, you know, the variability on what the ultimate yield is, you know, is a little bit tighter. and, you know, we obviously financed it in this market. And, you know, that budget reflects what the curve is, notwithstanding, you know, we're hedging that out some period of time. And then on the construction costs, I'm going to comment.
Steven Roth
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
We're 60% bought with another 20% soft circle.
Michael Franco
President and Chief Financial Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
So we're in good shape.
Steven Roth
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
We're in good shape. We have a very, very, very... have a strong outlook as to what the building will cost.
Michael Lewis
Analyst, Truist
Okay, great. Thank you. And then lastly for me, I don't know that there's anything you could share regarding the dividend you expect to pay this year, and I was wondering if the 350 Park JV gain would impact your taxable minimum at all?
Michael Franco
President and Chief Financial Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
No. The latter question, no.
Nick
Conference Operator
Okay. The next question will come from Alexander Goldfarb with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.
Alexander Goldfarb
Analyst, Piper Sandler
Good morning, and thank you. And Steve, I like the turkey tradition. That's pretty cool. So I have two questions for you. The first question is, you guys have said for several quarters now that tenants really are not price sensitive when it comes to rent. You know, thinking historically, you always hear about companies that were trying to get the best deal, and now they seem to, you are either one, companies and tenants accepting higher rents as a percent of their operating cost structure, or is it that the tenant's profitability has so vastly increased over the past number of years that paying 200 or 300, whatever the new market rents are, is really not an impact to them because as a percent of their operating costs, it's no different than when rents were 90 or 100 bucks?
Steven Roth
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
Alex, I don't remember anybody on my team ever saying, that tenants don't care about the rent they pay. Our customers are responsible, and each rent negotiation is relatively intense and done by responsible parties on both sides. So the tenants do care about every single term in a lease. Sorry to disavow you of that. I wish it wasn't so, but every lease is contested.
Alexander Goldfarb
Analyst, Piper Sandler
No, I understand that, Steve, but it seems right now that tenants are accepting significantly higher rents than historically. I didn't mean to be disparaging or dismissive.
Steven Roth
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
Of course. The marketplace is demanding that rents go up aggressively. Construction costs, scarcity, and interest rates all are factored into that. are realistic. They're very well advised. They know when they have to, what they have to pay. And in order to make a deal, they're willing to pay the lowest price they have to pay in order to make a deal. That lowest price turns out to be higher than it was yesterday and the day before. That's the market.
Alexander Goldfarb
Analyst, Piper Sandler
Okay. The second question is, on 8887, is there any update on the ground rent renegotiation? The loan has been in special servicing, as you guys predicted. addressed the ground rent reset and just curious if there's any update on that process.
Steven Roth
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
No, sir.
Alexander Goldfarb
Analyst, Piper Sandler
Okay.
Steven Roth
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
Thank you, Steve. It's actually three or four years away.
Michael Franco
President and Chief Financial Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
It is two years away.
Steven Roth
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
Two years away. So it'll start pretty soon.
Nick
Conference Operator
Thank you. The next question will come from Ronald Camden with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Thomas D'Arcy
Senior Vice President and Controller, Vornado Realty Trust
Hey, great. Just two quick ones. Starting with the same store and why commentary, I think you said the eight plus, eight to nine percent this year, that could continue into 27 and 2028. And just wondering if that was correct and if there's the move outs or all that other one-timers that you mentioned was sort of factored in and how we should think about that. Thanks.
Michael Franco
President and Chief Financial Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
Good morning, Ronald. So I don't know that I said it continues certainly through that period. Maybe a little higher, maybe a little lower, but it's going to be quite strong, and I think certainly with respect to the New York office, it's going to be at or above those numbers as I look through 2027. So retail is a little bit lumpier, but overall the numbers are going to be sort of in that ilk, certainly on average for the year and definitely for the office.
Thomas D'Arcy
Senior Vice President and Controller, Vornado Realty Trust
Okay, perfect. And so my follow-up was just going to be, If I think about the recurring capex for this year, annualizing it, I have it at $167 million. Obviously, a lot of leasing has been done, so this is good news. But how do we think about what that run rate could be and how much that could come down as you take occupancy? Thanks.
Michael Franco
President and Chief Financial Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
You know, I think the next year or two is still going to be high, just given, you know, we're funding the leases that either have been signed or will be signed. I think, as you know, there's a lag effect when we sign these leases and when the tenant actually calls for the capital. It tends to be typically actually quite a bit later than we normally expect. So that's going to flow in the next year. And then next year, the lease is in the following year. But I think a couple of years out, that starts to come down as the portfolio reaches the kind of stable numbers we've talked about.
Nick
Conference Operator
There is time for one additional question. Caitlin Burrows from Goldman Sachs is on the line with the final question for the call. Please go ahead.
Caitlin Burrows
Analyst, Goldman Sachs
Hi. Good morning, everyone. Maybe just on the leverage path, I see that you guys are at 7.9 times now. So with all that you have going on development-wise, EBITDA upside, possible dispositions, how do you see that shifting over 2027 and 28, or what level or range do you think you'll aim to manage around?
Michael Franco
President and Chief Financial Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
You know, we're not managing around anything. We like having a strong balance sheet. We're proud of the, you know, progress we've made. And I think just if you look at the, what's the natural, you know, where does it sort of naturally settle out to given the income coming offline? You know, it's going to continue to trend down, you know, we think into probably below sevens, you know, by the end of next year, beginning of the following year.
Steven Roth
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
The biggest thing in that calculation is the income which will be coming on board will force that metric lower. And of course, the money, the capital we have to spend will force it higher. So that battle, I think, will go in favor of a more favorable metric. There's an enormous amount of income coming online which will help that metric enormously.
Caitlin Burrows
Analyst, Goldman Sachs
Okay, and then just to follow up on the lease expirations in 2027, I was wondering to the extent that you previously signed renewals on 27 expirations, are those shown in the lease expiration table as 27 expirations or in the new year? So like are those unaddressed lease expirations or all lease expirations, if that makes sense?
Thomas D'Arcy
Senior Vice President and Controller, Vornado Realty Trust
That's a good question. Yeah, so to the extent we signed a renewal that would get taken out of 2027 and pushed to the year that it would then expire. That sounds logical. Good.
Vikram Malhotra
Analyst, Mizuho
There are no further questions at this time, sir.
Steven Roth
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Vornado Realty Trust
Bill, I'll tell you, thank you all very much for joining. While we have been talking, we have gotten multiple requests for turkeys from non-affiliated listeners on this call. So I guess the message is happy Thanksgiving to everybody. It's a wonderful American holiday and we wish everybody well. We had what we consider to be an outstanding quarter and we're anxious to report to see you again on our next call in three months. Have a good day everybody.
Nick
Conference Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.