Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the CAFWA Q3 2026 sales webcast and conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there'll be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star 1 and 1 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star 1 and 1 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speakers today, Mr. Alexandre Bompard, Chairman and CEO, and Mr. Matthieu Malige, CFO. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good evening, everyone, and thank you for joining our Q3 sales call. I was not originally scheduled to join this call, but given the scale, On the seriousness of the events in France over the past few days and their consequences for our business and our teams, I felt it was important to speak to you directly. I want to begin by addressing what happened over the weekend. Thousands of stores across France were attacked, products robbed, and for some stores, equipment was destroyed. As chairman of the French Retail Federation, I'm following the situation across the sector and its consequences for retailers throughout the country. As we speak tonight, the situation keeps evolving. After Saturday's demonstration on looting, there were more riots on Sunday than new threats yesterday. Carrefour was directly and strongly affected. Around 50 of our stores were hit on day one. Many were looted and the damage is considerable. In this context, our first concern is the safety of our colleagues, franchises and customers. Many of our teams and partners faced deeply distressing situations. I want to express my solidarity with them. Our store teams have once again shown great courage and dignity. We are supporting them on helping the affected stores resume operations as soon as it is safe. We are also working with our teams on franchise partners on insurance coverage and the claims process. The direct costs are only part of the impact. Those that were not physically damaged are also affected. Lower customer footfall in many areas, shorter opening hours because of curfews, precautionary closures, and access difficulties are disrupting trading. This is continuing in some areas at the beginning of this week. Going forward, we will have to increase our operating costs Notably in areas such as security and specific logistics for damaged stores. As you understand, the situation is unprecedented on the level of uncertainties very high on operations and trading. The government announced security measures including curfew at the local level. New demonstrations are announced notably for October 24 on November 5. So it's impossible to get a clear picture of the situation. This happens after a cycle of more difficult consumption since mid-September on the back of higher energy prices, social unrest from high school students, and the deteriorated climate on the 2027 budget with more taxes and less subsidies. We are entering a crucial period for retail. The final month of the year traditionally accounts for more than a third of Carrefour France's full-year recurring operating income. We expect the severity of the security situation all over France to further weaken consumer confidence and weigh significantly on spending while imposing increasing operating costs just to keep our stores open. Our Q3 commercial momentum was solid and in line with expectations. However, the events of the past few days have changed the outlook for the final months of the year. We estimated it was our responsibility to revise our 2026 targets as set out in our press release. These revised targets keep showing profit growth versus 2025, but at a lower level. Carrefour has a solid business model, a strong local footprint, and committed teams. Our response will be driven by clear execution priorities. We will continue to strengthen our price competitiveness, to support customer value and loyalty, accelerate the development of our convenience format on e-commerce, and pursue our 1 billion cost savings plan with discipline. We will also keep advancing Carrefour 2030, We are confident that these priorities will help us manage the current disruption, deliver our revised 2026 objectives, and continue building the Group's long-term growth. I will now leave Matthieu to comment on our Q3 performance and explain the revised targets in detail.

Thank you, Alexandre, and good evening to all of you. Let me start with a few key highlights from this Q3. Group sales increased by 2.3% like for like, following plus 2.1% in H1. Growth was driven by food sales of 2.7% and the positive contribution from the three core countries. These results came in a context of solid consumer momentum in Europe over the summer, despite a rebound in general inflation weighing on purchasing power, whilst food inflation remained contained. In Latin America, consumption remained under pressure and was notably penalized in Brazil by high interest rates. In France, sales grew by 1.2% like for like, with further improvement in price competitiveness. In Spain, sales rose by 2.1%, supported by volume growth and a strong momentum in convenience. In Brazil, sales grew by 1.4% with Atacadao accelerating its volume trends way above the market. We continue to roll out our Carrefour 2030 priorities. Carrefour kept expanding in growth formats over the quarter, notably with 89 new convenience stores in France and Spain, and two Atacada openings in Brazil. The vision solution is now deployed in 28 hypermarkets. E-commerce grew by 18% in Q3, and we also continue to deliver our cost savings plan in line with our €1 billion target for 2026. Overall, Q3 sales were solid and in line with our expectations. As Alexandre has just explained, recent events in France have changed the outlook for the final months of the year. We have therefore adjusted our 2026 financial targets. I will explain the revised numbers in more detail at the end of the presentation. Let me take you to our Q3 numbers with the sales bridge in slide 3 of the presentation. Group sales reached 22.7 billion euros, up 3.9% on a reported basis. Like-for-like sales grew plus 2.3% in line with H1. The scope and M&A effect was negative 0.7% over the quarter, mainly reflecting the sale of six hypermarkets in France, in line with the commitments made to the competition authority following the acquisition of Cora and Match. Petrol contributed 1.3 percentage points, while the calendar effect was negative 0.2%. Foreign Exchange had a positive impact of plus 1.2% over the quarter mainly reflecting the appreciation of the Brazilian Real. Let me now turn to France. Sales grew by 1.2% like for like in Q3 with positive growth across all formats. The food retail market continued to grow both in value and volume and our food sales were up 1.6%. Our price investment continued to improve our competitiveness and our price image, contributing to a two-point increase in net promoter score. Trading was stronger over the summer, then we saw a slowdown in September. In this context of slowdown on consumption, the Carrefour anniversary campaign did not deliver the usual uplift this year. Former Cora stores grew by 7.3% L4L after 5% in Q2 and 2.3% in Q1. Match stores were up 3.4%. This shows continued progress. The commercial effects of last year pricing and assortment reset are gaining momentum. Cora is continuously gaining customers and market share. We look forward to accelerating the dynamic further in Q4, despite the new context. E-commerce grew by 15%, with further market share gains in drive and home delivery. We opened 54 convenience stores during the quarter. Finally, yesterday, we announced that we had signed an agreement for the acquisition of Côte-de-France. This transaction is part of our Carrefour 2030 plan for France, which aims to strengthen our market share partly through tactical M&A, consolidate our leadership in the convenience segment and improve our EBIT margin. Let's now turn to slide 5 and Spain where the market remains solid and mainly driven by volume growth. Carrefour Spain continued to post solid sales growth up 2.1% like for like in Q3 in line with the previous quarters. Momentum remained positive in both food and non-food with sales up 1.8% L4L in food and 3.2% L4L in non-food. Convenience continued to be a strong growth format with L4L sales up 13% and continued network expansion with 35 openings over the quarter. Commercially, our mi-channel strategy is also paying off with e-commerce up 8%. Finally, customer satisfaction continued to improve with NPS up 2 points in Q3, driven by our sustained commitment to price leadership in the country, supporting consumer purchasing power. Now turning to slide 6 and our operations in Brazil. The Brazilian market remained challenging over the quarter. High interest rates and weaker consumer sentiment continued to weigh on purchasing power. Despite a more favorable comparison base, as volumes declined mid-singer digits in Q3 last year, volumes kept declining this quarter in both cash and carry and retail markets. Against this backdrop, Carrefour Brazil posted plus 1.4% L4L sales growth in Q3, with food sales growth accelerating to 2.2% from 0.7% last quarter. This was notably driven by Atacadao, which grew 2% like for like, accelerating from 0.5% in Q2 and negative 1% in Q1. Atacadao's volume trends clearly improved, and it accelerated its market share gain. The adaptation of Atacadao's commercial model with a simplified assortment, targeted commercial initiatives and the rapid rollout of the Bullnus private label, with 300 SKUs now available, all this resonated well with customers. The retail segment posted food sales up 1.5% like for like. As in previous quarters, non-food sales were penalized by the discontinuation of the non-food e-commerce activity, which was not profitable. Sam's Club delivered plus 3.6% like-for-like growth driven by positive volumes and an increase in active members. Moving to the other countries segments on slide seven. In Belgium, Carrefour recorded the third straight quarter of improvement in like-for-like sales growth at plus 2.3%. outlining a solid commercial momentum driven by positive volumes. Market share was up 20 bps over the quarter, supported by a successful combination between investment in price competitiveness, promotions, and loyalty benefits. In Poland, the market was penalized by food deflation for the first time in 10 years. Sales were down minus 4.3% like following. In Argentina, sales grew by 24% like for like. Despite continued pressure on consumer purchasing power, we consolidated our market leadership and gained market share in both value and volume. Volumes have remained positive since June, clearly outperforming the market. Now let's turn to slide 8, which outlines the adjustments to our financial targets for the full year 2026. The social and security situation in France has deteriorated and is expected to remain under pressure for some time. We expect this to weigh significantly on consumption and disrupt operations in our stores through the end of the year, which is a critical period for our activity. Against this backdrop, we have decided to pause or delay a number of works in our stores to be totally focused on operations and servicing our customers. Consequently, our capex envelope for the year is reduced by 100 million euros to 1.6 billion from 1.7 billion initially. In this context, the Group is adjusting its guidance for 2026. We continue to expect growth in recurring operating income. We now expect operating margin to increase by 0 to 15 basis points compared with our initial target of 25 basis points increase. We now expect adjusted earnings pressure to be stable or show slight growth We expect net free cash flow to slightly decrease whereas we had previously expected slight growth. I will not comment page 9 with key takeaways which summarizes what we just discussed and is here for your reference. I thank you for your attention. Alexandre and I are happy to take your questions.

Thank you. To ask a question, you will need to press star 1 and 1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 1 and 1 again. We will now go to the first question. One moment, please. And your first question today comes from the line of Frederick Wild from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon. So first of all, I just wanted to start by passing on my heartfelt sympathies to you and your colleagues in France for everything.

Sorry, Frederick. Your line is very bad. Is there any way you can speak louder so we hear you well? Thank you. Can you hear me now any better? It's much better. Thank you.

I was just starting by saying I hope everyone's okay out there with you and your colleagues in France. But to move on to my questions, first of all, could you help me understand the scale of the downgrade to EPS that's just going on there in terms of how you are thinking about sales evolving in France in Q4, how much the extra security costs are going to impact This year and all the other moving parts, just so we've got a sense of what's actually driving that downgrade. My second question is just a bit more about the Brazil and Spanish consumer dynamics, how those trended in September, whether you've seen any meaningful change in consumer behavior in either of those two markets. And then if I could slip a final third one in there, Could you just help explain a bit why France slowed down in September and whether this was being led by Cora and whether this would have carried on absent any other disruption in the French market? Thank you.

Thank you, thank you, Cédric. Let's come to your first question, to try to quantify the financial consequence of the events. So the events are very recent, as you know, and they are continuing. But what we see or analyze, and due also to our experience of the last days on previous social situation, even if this one is unprecedented, the impact has several components. First, there are direct costs from stolen or destroyed goods, damage to store and equipment, additional security, repair costs, and lost sales when stores are closed. So that's direct costs. Secondly, there are broader operational effects starting with top line. We anticipate Both deterioration in the consumption dynamics due to the morale of the customers at a moment of the year where there are events, particular events like Black Friday or of course Christmas days. So we see a deterioration in the consumption dynamics with lower customer traffic. There are also shorter opening hours before curfews that impact top line. Precautionary closures. Four hours ago, I had to close a new commercial center suddenly, and that's a new reality today of our activity, and access difficulties, including at stores that were not physically damaged. Baruch is top line. Third is we are also monitoring possible supply disruption and the additional resources needed to protect our seeds. We cannot yet provide a detailed breakdown by cost items. There are still many moving parts and a lot of uncertainty. But these are the main parts, cost, top line, disruption, additional resources to open a store. And it's a continuing process. We have seen continued turmoil since last Saturday. There were riots on Sunday. It was not expected at all. On Monday, there were threatens. There are new security measures every day taken by the government, including, for example, curfew in Paris and other mechanisms. and there are new national demonstration announced, big one, 24th of October, which means Saturday, November the 5th. So at this point, things appear to be deteriorating with no visible sign of real improvements. And that's exactly what we are. And when we, based on our current assessment, we estimate the maximum financial risk at around 200 million euros on recurring operating income compared with our previous objective. If it is 0.15 of increase, it would be 80 million of loss of recurring operating income, and the maximum risk is 200 million euros on recurring operating income. So that's where we are today with our analysis and with what is happening every day. Your second question is on Brazil and Spain. What I can say is that the dynamic in the two countries is positive and I would say strong in September for different types of reasons. In Spain, the macro dynamic is very good. And we are good in this dynamic. So we continue to have a positive momentum Q3, including September and including the beginning of October. Brazil is related to other facts. The dynamic of the markets remains difficult due to interest rates and negative volume for cash and carry. We gained a lot of market share, particularly on Atacadao. And we have this positive momentum of this positive growth of 2% for Atacadao at the Q3. And a good dynamic, particularly a good dynamic in September. And that's what we see at the beginning of October. So dynamic in September in the two months is very positive for different reasons in Spain and Brazil. and continuing in October. The last question was what happened in September. So I think Matthieu has explained that quite precisely. What we have seen is a good summertime. After mid-September, we have begun to see a slight decline of the consumption and The Carrefour anniversary campaign that takes place every year in September was below last year's performance on the back of ICOMS and of course it was related to the first sign of the slowdown of the consumption in September due to the situation, due to the students' events and so on. So that's what we have seen in September.

That's very helpful. Thank you so much. Thank you.

Thank you. Your next question today comes from the line of Isabelle de Bruva from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Hello, good evening, and thank you for taking my questions. Regarding the CAPEX guidance, I understand that a lot of this is coming out of France. Could you help us understand, should we expect you to step that up next year as hopefully the situation normalizes, meaning that the total capex envelope is unchanged on a multi-year view? And then my second question is on market share in France. Could you update us on your outlook there? Because the Nielsen, which has just come out this evening, shows the market share is down 50 basis points in hypers for P10. So could you maybe comment on that figure and your expectations for the evolution going forward?

Thank you, Isabelle. Thank you very much. So, well, we need to refine our CAPEX plan for next year. We have postponed, as I said, a number of projects and works. You're right. It's too early, we'll have to revisit. We think that the annual CAPEX envelope should be relatively unchanged for next year. We'll see where we are exactly at the beginning of the year. On your second question relating to the recent market share data, Well, several things to have in mind. So the first one is that in the context of consumption, as Alexandre said just a minute ago, the anniversary campaign has not been as efficient in the hypermarket as it is traditionally. Then we have a very high historical, I'm sure you saw that, which I think was roughly plus 30 bps last year. So it's a lower number than we had in the previous periods with a high historical. More generally on market shares over the summers, as you know, we have the remedies that I mentioned with way roughly 15, 20 bps If you see between P6 and P9, we've had positive volume market share despite this negative perimeter effect, which we think is a good sign and which is consistent with what we hear from customers in terms of price image, price perception. We've been implementing a number of waves of price decrease since the beginning of the year, and it's important to notice that for four periods in a row, we've been gaining market share in volume terms despite a negative perimeter effect. Then we have this promotional campaign in P10, but I think overall the dynamic is interesting.

Thank you. I had one follow-up, actually, if I may. Of the 80 to 200 million that you mentioned, are you able to split that out between what are the one-off costs related to shrink, to store repair, and how much of that is the expected deterioration in the like-for-like going forward?

Well, so as Alexandre said, there's a number of moving parts and you see that the situation is developing. There's one number within these envelopes that we have flagged, is that the cost, the specific cost for the last few days relating to merchandise, relating to repairs and so on, was in excess of 10 million euros just for the past two, three days. And so that's the only number we have flagged. Then I think it's premature to detail the main bricks inside the buckets that you just described.

Okay, thank you. Thank you. Your next question today. Close from the line of Manjari Dhar from RBC. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. My first question was just a follow-up on the previous two questions on the new guidance range. I was just wondering if you could help us understand What would be the situation or what would the situation look like to get to the 18 million number versus the 200 million number that you commented? I suppose what should we be looking out for? And then my second question was just on Quora. I appreciate the good top line progression. I was just wondering, given the developments that you're seeing now, What are your expectations for CORA for the full year now? Thank you.

Thank you for your question. You know, it's an ongoing process, an ongoing crisis, so it's always quite difficult to absolutely give you precise elements, but the difference between 80 to 200 would be linked Two lengths of the crisis, the magnitude of the crisis, the number of security or unsecurity events that will occur. For example, there are Saturday a new demonstration, national demonstration. Without any doubt, I hope security would be better than last Saturday, but the impact on our activities would be high. So there are several that are already announced. So it's difficult to precisely tell you the difference between 80 to 200, but the two main aspects are length and magnitude, and consequently, impact on the sentiments of the customers. So the more the crisis is lasting, the longer it is, the more impact it has on the customer confidence, on their moral, on their willingness to consume particularly for events like Black Friday or Christmas seasons. So that's what is key for us. Concerning Koha, you have seen the dynamic, 2.5 at the first quarter, 5 at the second quarter, 7.5 at the third quarter. So we keep improving the commercial dynamics and we're expecting more for Q4. We need more for Q4 to reach our objective. But the current dynamic is positive.

Thank you. Thank you. The next question today comes from the line of Sridhar Mahankali from UBS. Please go ahead.

Hi. Good evening, Alexandre and Matthieu. Thanks for taking my questions. I do realize the severity of the situation. These seem to be very large cuts to both margins and free cash flow. Maybe just to dig a bit more into some of these topics. Maybe first one, factually, in terms of Q3, margins and cash flow, were they in line with your expectations prior to protests? Were you on track to what you were thinking? That's the first question specifically on Q3 progress. Secondly, I think Again, trying to calibrate, I know it's a bit of a difficult one. But where you are sitting here now, 18 million to 200 million range that you've talked to, how do you scale that from the 10 million that you've just talked to in the past few days? What needs to happen? If there is any more color you could give, that would be helpful. And finally, In short form, when we look at the group level, I think you're still saying operating profit should grow, but clearly there is a reasonably large cut on France. When we look back, is it just France or are there other regions, Europe, Latam, are also a little behind expectations? Is there anything else to be recalibrated as we sit here?

I would let Matthieu precise different elements just to be very clear because it's important. Our Q3 commercial momentum and performance was good and in line with our expectation on that sole basis till Friday. We would have confirmed our guidance. That's where we were until Saturday morning. So that's something that is very clear. On second element, I can tell you, and after Matthieu will decide, is that it's only, this revision is only limited to France. The average geographies are in line with expectations and are in line with our objectives on guidelines.

Well, no, it's very clear. Maybe just on your second one, Sreda, you see it's a mix of the VAT to 200 million euros. It's a mix of specific moments where we have to close some stores earlier. There is a number of security agents which are present in some of our stores. We're adapting a number of operational process to ensure the right opening. So just opening the stores is more expensive from Monday morning onward. And then it's about business trend and more out of the of the consumers with a number of key days including Saturday, Alexandre just mentioned the upcoming demonstrations, and at a moment where we have a high proportion of our profits which is generated and so a negative consumption trend at this moment is obviously very sensitive for our bottom line. We have high level of non-food inventories that has already come into our stores, into our distribution centers. We look forward to selling them and having a good end of year campaign. Obviously, this is more at risk today than it was a week ago. Thank you.

Thank you. The next question today comes from the line of Xavier Lemene from Bank of America Securities. Please go ahead.

Yes. Good evening, actually. Thank you for taking the question. Three, if I may. The first one, back on France, I'm afraid. How do you compare your network versus the competition? What I mean there is, do you think that your network is more at risk than your competitors or not? And do you see some format more at risk in the hypermarket or the supermarket or the convenience stores? Just to understand potentially what may happen, you know, going forward, especially on your market share. So if you're more at risk than the others. So something I would like to understand. Brief question on Codifrance and the acquisition that you're making. Are you buying just the sales or are you also buying brands like Coccinelle? That's the first part of the question. And the second thing, do you see a risk of potentially losing some of the affiliates of Côte-de-France, or do you think that you will be able to keep a good retention here? The third one is just on Brazil. What are your expectations, actually, post-presidential elections? Do you expect some improvement? I know there are still a lot of uncertainty, of course, but do you have hope that things could get a bit better post-election?

Thank you for this quick question. The first one is of course very relevant. No doubt that we are among the main retailers in France the most affected by this crisis due to the fact that we have the larger number of souls, 6,000, and that we are leader in convenience in urban cities. If we are leader in Paris, we are leader in Lyon, we are leader in Marseille. All these cities, of course, are strongly hit. They are not the only one to be. but they are strongly hit and so due to the number of stores we have and due to the fact that there are convenience stores are strongly present in the center of the main big cities in France, of course we are more hit than our main competitors as you have a federation and when I compare The number of stores that are affected in my competitors and colleagues, of course, the number is highly different. For some of them, it's sometimes almost zero, sometimes two or three. So it's really related to the role we have on convenience stores and in the centers of cities. Codifrance first, we are very happy of this acquisition. It was quite a surprise, I think, for the market that we could be able to enter this process. It's perfectly in line with our objective to reinforce our leadership on proximity, both on franchise and on I think we have been quite active and it shouldn't have been for us, but we have been quite good to lead this acquisition. So as you know, we are already operating an affiliation business in France. through the proxy banner. It will accelerate this business and strengthen our presence. Codifrance provides a skilled platform supplying approximately 3,100 points of sale with an established logistic infrastructure and an experienced team. It generates approximately more than 300 million euros in revenue on the satisfactory level of profitability. The integration will build on the continuity of Codifrance organization and business model. Supply by Codifrance, of course, will not be converted to Carrefour Banners, but will keep their own. And our plan is with Codifrance to progressively improve their commercial performance, help them to have better conditions, and deliver with them short-term cost synergies. On the Brazil, it's too early to tell you what we think about the election because we follow polls quite every day and the spread is very tiny and change day by day. So we will see on Sunday what happens, and the good news, whatever, will be that this uncertainty process will be over after we see who will be the next president on Sunday night.

Okay, thank you.

Thank you.

Thank you. Your next question today comes from the line of Monique Pollard from Citigroup. Please go ahead. Hello.

Good evening. Thank you for taking my questions. The first one, it was just to come back to a comment, Alexandre, you made. I think you said the final quarter of the year accounts for a third of ROI. So if I take that relationship to France, I mean, this cut to EBIT for the guidance is effectively suggesting that French EBIT could be down over 50%. in terms of the fourth quarter. So I just want, just given that seems quite an extreme position, I was keen to understand as well, given your comments that, you know, the proximity stores, the convenience stores being impacted particularly, are you sharing some of the pain with the franchise partners of the elevated operating costs or how is that working? Or is that still to be decided? The second question was around the broader operational impact you said that could impact the top line, particularly as we go into peak trading. I guess the way I'm thinking about it is about 10% of the French sales are non-food. So wouldn't it largely be just in that non-food portion where you would see the kind of weaker top line play through rather than in the core food sales? And then the final question I just had was around insurance. How much insurance do you have that might cover some of these impacts and whether any you have assumed can be redeemed this year? Thank you.

So could you tell again the last question because there was a problem on the hearing. If you can just precise the last one.

Oh, yes, absolutely. The last question was just how much insurance you have that might cover some of the impact from these protests and whether you have assumed any of that insurance contribution, if there is any, might be redeemed this year.

Thank you for your several questions, Matthieu, with precise but on the principles, two ideas. First, as you can imagine, we are with our franchisee, with our partners. You know, it's a small convenience store with entrepreneurs that have invested their money on the off course. We help them to cross this very difficult crisis. The government has also announced today some ads for them and a series of measures that would be very positive for each franchisee. But at the end of the end, if they have a problem with their insurance, if they have a problem with their stocks and so on and so on, We will be with them. You know, it's impossible for us just to say, okay, now it's your store, don't you do what you have to do now. For each of them, we try to be sure that they have a clear answer, both by the government, by the insurance, and by ourselves. You know, for the insurance, they don't have the same There are some franchises and so on and so on, so it can be a little bit different. But if we see that there are difficulties there because they are not covered for everything, we help them because we have to be a side in this crisis. Matthieu, you want to go to precise?

So then on your second question and the impact, well, you're right, discretionary consumption and typically non-food is probably more at risk, but we think that it's It's a mindset of consumption. You don't just buy food to feed your family. You also have moments, you have a specific product. If the mindset for consumption is not here, we know that it has an impact. We have gone through that in some crises previously. Then, you know, the relation to the profits of a specific quarter, you know, it's mainly a fixed-cost business. It's likely we're going to have more costs, as I said earlier, just for running the operations, that we're going to have more repairs. for a number of specific situations with a loss of volume. So I'm not sure the impact is to be compared with the level of profitability we have in the third of the year, mainly relating to the big level of sales that we do at the end of the year. Then on insurance, we do have some insurance ourselves, but you can see that a number of what we've described is not covered. If you just have slower sales because of the mindset, if you have to close earlier your store because There is a risk to the security or there is a curfew which is decided by the government. Then all this will not be covered. And then when you have losses, we have some thresholds which are not covering for 100%. So you know how it works. So a little bit will be covered, but we think most of the impact will hit our P&L That's why we're adjusting our numbers tonight.

I'm sorry, just to follow up on the insurance point there, is the little bit that's covered from the insurance included in this guidance, or would that be additional when it comes through?

No, so it's a net, the impact is a net. Then again, you know, the situation is developing as we speak, so what exactly would be the proportion that would be covered by insurance, it's too early to determine, it would depend on the event, on the shape and duration and magnitude that the crisis takes.

Understood, thank you. Thank you. The next question today comes from the line of Rob Joyce from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

Good evening. Thanks very much. I've got three questions as well. One with a quick follow-up just on Monique's first point. Am I correct in hearing that the impact you're estimating will be between about a quarter and a half of the French EBIT in 4Q, given you're coming on a third of the EBIT in the fourth quarter? The second one is, Just in terms of thinking about this on a sort of look-forward basis into 2027, I mean, given your comments on the third quarter trending in line, should we basically just think of the kind of 2350 implied in the EBIT guidance as a base to build from next year, so effectively look at the fourth quarter impact as an entirely a one-off in France? And then the final one is, I'm just trying to square the EBIT guide with the EPS guide, If I sort of take the low end of the EBIT range, I'm getting to a sort of, yeah, I can see the slight increase in EPS year over year potentially, but if I take the sort of worst case scenario, we'd be getting EPS down mid single digit, maybe slightly more. I'm just wondering if I'm getting something wrong or something changed below the line since we last spoke. Thank you.

Well, thank you very much, Rob. Well, on your first one, I think we've pretty much said it all. So we've been clear that the impact from 80 to 200 is purely focused on France. The rest is running well and unchanged. And I think I was clear in answering to Monique earlier. On your second question, well, again, we think it's a specific situation. You didn't ask the question about our mid-term guidance, but clearly, our mid-term The 2028 and 2030 guidance is unchanged because we think it's a specific situation that does not modify our trajectory. It's an important point. So then it will depend on what's the dynamic for the business at the beginning of the year, what are the one-offs. We think it should be many one-offs. So we'll see, but clearly it doesn't change the medium-term perspective that's important. Then on the computation from recurring RPAt income to EPS, make sure you get your financial results right. Maybe it's a little too big in terms of financial cost. In comparison with last year, we said that we would get about 75% of the benefit from refinancing Brazil in 2026. So I just want to make sure that you reflect that. And so the numbers, I think they were clear. We get it to a full year impact of the refinancing of 180 million euros, which was roughly 12% of difference in interest rates applied to roughly 1.5 billion euros of debt that has been refinanced with 25% of the impact occurring in 2025 and the remaining 75% happening this year. So, Kelly, you can... Financial charge would be below €500 million for the year. That's probably something that was missing in your model.

Okay. Finance charge is below €500 million for the year. Yeah. Okay. Thank you.

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Francois Degas from Kebler Chivre. Please go ahead.

Good evening. First, if I may, thank you very much for your transparency in this very difficult period we are all facing in France. That is very appreciated. Then I have a few questions. You mentioned in September a kind of slowdown in the second part of September. You mentioned students' prize. I was a bit surprised. Is it not also correlated on more impacted by the energy costs increase on their impact on purchasing power? Then I have a second question. Could you provide some details on the looted stores? Because I was in the impression that proximity on a few supermarkets for up to 50 stores have been impacted, but I'm surprised to see in some quotes of Alexandre in the press Thank you Francois for your words.

We really appreciate it. Of course you know perfectly, Fran, you have seen how September has evolved with many, many negative aspects. Related to, of course, energy costs, the question of the price of oil, the question of the purchasing power, the debates on the budget situation, the risk of a financial crisis, all that. And there were also, as I mentioned, the first student demonstration. So that's the series of events. mainly in the second part of September that have really affected the climate of September. Considering your question on the 50 stores, the main stores, of course, the main bulk is the really urban which means not only convenience but also Carrefour Market. Let's take an example, Sunday morning the first two stores that I've seen very early in the morning was the proximity stores in Strasbourg, Saint-Denis and the Carrefour Market in Rue de Lyon. So different formats have been impacted but also we have seen many closures We have a lot of hypermarkets that are based on very urban areas. They have been very impacted in 2023, as you probably remember. We are stronger in this area. are more affected these days by the crisis. So that's why at the end of the end, because of the strong presence we have in the center of the cities and the strong presence we have in the peri-urban, in the banlieue of the big cities, we are more impacted.

Then I think we were clear, François, you know that there's been a few stalls, but the impact is obviously much broader because we think it's a change of consumption trends and of conditions of operating our stores with more costs. I think we've covered that. Thank you very much and good luck for the coming weeks.

Thank you. We will now take our final question for today. And the final question comes from the line of Johua Meshale from OdoBHF. Please go ahead.

Thank you gentlemen for taking my questions. I have three for you. First one, any impact that can be foreseen on the working capital line for this year? I think we are in the period where we are building inventories ahead. The second question is the fact that you mentioned that it is probably a one-off effect for 2026, but don't you fear that what you described on the debate on oil cost, purchasing power, budget situation, risk of a financial crisis might potentially be prolonged into early 2027? And the third question is do we have any development on the cyber attack of the fridges that you had to cope with along with industry players as well and are there also any insurance related to that? Thank you very much.

Thank you, Geoffroy. I think you're right. It's a good question on working cap. We have included that in the revision of the guidance on the Net Free Cash Flow objective. There is a risk that we have a lower sales dynamics at the end of the year. There could be an impact. We think it would be limited and it's been factored into the revision of the guidance for 2026.

For the two of us questions, so first the cyber attack last Monday. I would say this cyber incident had a limited operational impact on Carrefour. It affected approximately 80 franchise supermarkets. No hypermarkets were affected, so it's not material for us, but of course we take it very seriously. We invest year after year big capex on CBER, we have higher experts, We are working very closely on all our processes. Today we have a board on this subject. It was one of the key subjects we presented to the board. So it's something on which we are working, of course, a lot, trying to be the most professional, the more prepared we can be. On your question about, I would say, perspective, I will take it a little bit in a different way if you don't mind. We are crossing a strong crisis in France, security and social crisis that started a few days ago and that is eating retail and many Carrefour very strong. The other elements you mentioned, energy costs, oil costs, purchasing power situation, situation of public debt and so on, I would say our model has proven the first nine months of the year that it was capable to face it positively. And that's why today it's a bit difficult for us to see that the big effort we have done in France in the nine months to face all these negative elements and to follow our objectives are damaged a little bit. Thank you very much. Public finances, question of debts, unemployed, crisis of the country and political instability. But until Saturday, on this unprecedented security crisis, we were capable to face them. and to have a good commercial dynamic and to transform this good commercial dynamic into an improvement of our profitability. And so the conviction we have, and we are building this model day after day, is that when the security crisis will be over, we will come back to the previous situation. We don't have any doubts with that. And that means that our model is resilient Thank you very much. Thank you. We appreciate the discussion with you.

Well, many thanks. It's time to close. So I'd like to thank you for your time and attention. Obviously, Sebastien and the rest of the team is available for any follow-up you may need.

And we give you rendezvous for our same-day IPERS on November the 17th.

Thank you very much. Thank you.

Bye-bye. Bye-bye.

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.