CSTL Castle Biosciences, Inc.
$34.20
Castle Biosciences, Inc. Q3 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript
AI Conference Call Analysis
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Conference Call Operator
Good afternoon and welcome to CASEL Bioscience third quarter 2026 conference call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. We will begin today's call with opening remarks and introductions, followed by a question and answer session. I would now like to turn the call over to Camilla Zuckero, Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Affairs. Thank you. You may begin.
Camilla Zuckero
Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Affairs
Thank you, Operator. Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to CASEL Biosciences' third quarter 2026 results conference call. Joining me today are CASEL's founder, president, and chief executive officer, Derek Maetzold, and chief financial officer, Frank Stokes. Information recorded on this call speaks only as of today, November 5, 2026. Therefore, if you are listening to the replay or reading the transcript of this call, any time-sensitive information may no longer be accurate. A recording of today's call will be available on the Investor Relations page of the company's website for approximately three weeks following the conclusion of the call. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that some of the statements made today will contain forward-looking statements, including statements about expected addressable markets, statements containing projections regarding future events or our future financial or operational results and performance. including our anticipated 2026 total revenue, test report volume growth guidance and positive adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter, full year 2026 and full year 2027 and the impact of our investments and growth initiatives including our ability to achieve long-term growth and drive stockholder value. Forward-looking statements are based upon current expectations and involve inherent risks and uncertainties and there can be no assurances that the results contemplated in these statements will be realized. A number of factors and risks could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in these forward looking statements. Please refer to the risk factors in our most recent SEC filings for more information. These forward looking statements speak only as of today and we assume no obligation to update or revise these forward looking statements as circumstances change. In addition, some of the information discussed today includes non-GAAP financial measures such as adjusted revenue, adjusted gross margin, and adjusted EBITDA that have not been calculated in accordance with U.S. GAAP. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are presented in the tables at the end of our earnings release issued earlier today, which has been posted on the investor relations page of the company's website. I will now turn the call over to Derek.
Derek Maetzold
Founder, President and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Camilla, and good afternoon, everyone. Our team closed out a very successful third quarter, reflecting our focused execution and disciplined expense management, underscored by the clinical value our tests provide to clinicians and their patients. We delivered revenue of $102.9 million, 24% growth compared to the third quarter of 2025, primarily driven by tissue cipher test report volume, which grew by 47% compared to the third quarter of 2025. We generated $19.7 million in net cash provided by operating activities and end of the quarter with cash, cash equivalents, and marketable investment securities totaling approximately $278 million. We are increasing our full year 2026 total revenue guidance from our prior range of $365 million to $375 million to $385 million to $395 million. This represents a $20 million increase at the midpoint, reflecting our year-to-date performance and anticipated continued strength in tissue cipher test volume growth. Importantly, at the midpoint, our updated guidance represents a $45 million increase from where we entered the year. Now, I will walk you through the business highlights from the third quarter, and then Frank will provide additional financial highlights before we turn to your questions. But first, let me take a moment to thank the CASEL team. Without each person's dedication to serving our patients, we would not be in the strong financial position we are in today. So thank you, Team CASEL. Now, let's start with our core revenue drivers for 2026, DecisionDx Melanoma and TissueCypher. For DecisionDx Melanoma, we delivered 10,177 test reports in the third quarter of 2026. making our fifth consecutive quarter exceeding 10,000 test reports and contributing to 5% year-over-year volume growth through the first nine months of 2026 compared to the first nine months of 2025. Decision X melanoma remains a central priority for a dermatology commercial organization. We've aligned commercial focus and incentive structures to reinforce that priority while leveraging our established customer relationships to increase use of our broader portfolio of dermatology tests. Our objective is to drive continued adoption of DecisionDx melanoma while building future growth opportunities across our dermatology tests. With DecisionDx melanoma continuing to provide a durable foundation for our dermatology business and reflecting third quarter and year-to-date test report volume, we are refining our outlook for full year 2026 DecisionDx melanoma test volume growth and now expect mid-single-digit year-over-year growth compared with 2025. Now, turning to tissue cipher. During the third quarter, we delivered 15,574 test reports, representing strong growth of 47% compared to the third quarter of 2025. This performance reflects continued momentum in our commercial execution, driven by increased utilization among our existing clinician base, and to a lesser degree, the addition of new ordering clinicians. Based on our year-to-date performance, we are reiterating our expectations for full-year 2026 TissueCypher test report garden growth of 50% to 52% compared to 2025. Alongside this strong commercial performance, we remain focused on expanding the body of clinical evidence, supporting TissueCypher's utility, and helping physicians make more informed, risk-aligned management decisions for patients with Barrett's esophagus disease. In September, we announced the publication of a new decision modeling study in the Annals of Gastroenterology. This study, which leveraged data from 699 patients across five previously published clinical validation studies, demonstrated that incorporating tissue cycle results into clinical decision-making could significantly improve the portion of patients receiving appropriate management, including in patients with nondysplastic and short-segment Barrett's, who are considered clinically to be at lower risk for neoplastic progression. In patients with nondysplastic Barrett's disease, whose disease did progress, use of tissue cipher to guide management decisions increased appropriate management in the form of endoscopic eradication therapy or short interval surveillance from 30.4% to 56.9%. Notably, among patients with non-dysplastic Barrett's who later progressed to high-grade dysplasia or esophageal cancer, tissue cypher guided management would have nearly doubled the proportion of patients receiving appropriate escalation of care from approximately 30% to 57%, while also reducing unnecessary procedures among those patients who did not progress. We believe these findings add to the growing body of evidence supporting TissueSucker's clinical value and further reinforce its role in helping physicians tailor patient management based on individualized risk of disease progression. Now, let's move back to dermatology and focus on our advanced ADTX test. During the third quarter of 2026, we delivered 1,109 test reports, reinforcing the value of our advanced ADTX test. We are particularly pleased with the recent publication of a new study in dermatology and therapy highlighting, one, the challenges patients with moderate to severe atopic dermatitis experience in achieving their treatment goals, and two, strong patient interest in molecular testing to help guide systemic therapy selection. Among patients who had been treated with targeted systemic therapies, 55% modified their treatment due to lack of efficacy. Overall, 83% of respondents expressed interest in molecular testing to guide treatment selection, increasing to 94% among those open to initiating a new systemic therapy. Further, in a real-world clinical use study that was presented in June at the Revolutionizing Atopic Dermatitis, or RAD, conference, found 98% of patients tested had their systemic treatment aligned with our advanced ADTX test results. meaning the 94% interest in patients new to systemic therapy who are interested in molecular testing aligns well with the 98% that Dr. Ames and colleagues reported at the RAD conference. We believe these findings support the clinical impact that our test is having on patient care. And with that, I will now turn the call over to Frank. Thank you, Derek. Good afternoon.
Frank Stokes
Chief Financial Officer
Reiterating Derek's sentiment, we're pleased with our strong financial results for the third quarter of 2026. Revenue was $102.9 million for the quarter, an increase of 24% over the third quarter of 2025, driven primarily by strong tissue cipher test volume growth. For total revenue for 2026, we are raising our revenue guidance to $385 to $395 million, up from the previously provided range of $365 to $375 million. This increase is primarily due to anticipated tissue cipher test volume growth and, to a lesser extent, ASP improvement. Our gross margin during the third quarter of 2026 was 75% compared to 75% in the third quarter of 2025. Our adjusted gross margin, which excludes the effects of intangible asset amortization related to our acquisitions and excludes the effects of revenue adjustments in the current period associated with test reports delivered in prior periods, was 77% for the quarter compared to 77% for the same period in 2025. Turning to expenses, our total operating expenses, including cost of sales for the third quarter of 2026, were $105.6 million compared to $89.8 million for the third quarter of 2025. Sales and marketing expenses for the quarter were $37.7 million compared to $32.8 million for the same period in 2025, primarily driven by higher personnel costs and higher expenses associated with travel. Higher personnel costs reflect headcount additions in our commercial teams as well as merit and annual inflationary wage adjustment for existing employees. General and administrative expenses were $26.1 million for the quarter compared to $23.1 million for the same period in 2025, primarily attributable to higher information technology-related costs and higher personnel costs. Higher personnel costs reflect headcount expansions in our administrative functions as well as merit and annual inflationary wage adjustment for existing employees. Cost of sales expenses were $23.9 million in the third quarter of 2026 compared to $18.7 million in the third quarter of 2025, primarily due to higher personnel costs, higher expenses for lab supplies, and higher lab services costs. The increase in lab supplies and lab services costs reflect higher test report volumes. Increases in personnel costs reflect a higher headcount due to higher test volumes. Investment additions made to support planned business growth in response to growing test report volumes, as well as merit and annual inflationary wage adjustment for existing employees. R&D expenses were $15.8 million for the quarter compared to $13 million for the same period in 2025, primarily due to higher personnel costs driven by increased headcount to support ongoing research activities and continued business growth related to our pipeline initiatives. Total non-cash stock-based compensation expense, which is allocated among cost of sales, R&D, and SG&A expense, was $11.2 million for the third quarter of 2026 compared to $12.1 million in the third quarter of 2025. Interest income was $2.5 million for the third quarter of 2026 compared to $2.8 million in the third quarter of 2025. Our net loss for the third quarter of 2026 was $4.1 million compared to a net loss of $0.5 million for the third quarter of 2025. Diluted loss per share for the third quarter was 13 cents compared to diluted loss per share of 2 cents for the same period in 2025. Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $12.7 million compared to $9.2 million for the comparable period in 2025. We continue to expect positive adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter and full year 2026. Importantly, absent a change in strategic direction, we also expect adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2027 to be positive. Net cash provided by operating activities was $19.7 million for the third quarter of 2026, and net cash provided by operating activities was $12.8 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2026. As of September 30, 2026, we had cash equivalents and marketable investment securities of approximately $278 million. Importantly, our strong balance sheet continues to provide financial flexibility to invest in our growth priorities. In closing, we delivered strong third quarter results, including strong top line growth, positive adjusted EBITDA and operating cash flow, and an upward adjustment to our annual revenue guidance of $20 million at the midpoint. I'll now turn the call back over to Derek.
Derek Maetzold
Founder, President and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Frank. In summary, we remain focused on serving our patients and clinicians. driving operational excellence and advancing our growth initiatives, including advancing our pipeline to deliver long-term value for stockholders. I want to thank the entire CASEL team. Our consistent execution is a direct reflection of their contribution, and I'm grateful for their effort and commitment. Thank you for your continued interest in CASEL Biosciences. Now, we will be happy to take your questions. Operator?
Operator
Conference Call Operator
At this time, we'll be conducting a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. In order to allow everyone in the queue an opportunity to address the CASEL management team, please limit your time on the call to one question and only one follow-up. If you have additional questions, please return to the queue. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from Bradley Bowers with Mizuho. Your line is now live.
Bradley Bowers
Analyst, Mizuho
Hey there, guys. Thanks for the question. Just wanted to ask on tissue cipher here, you know, obviously a nice step up in, you know, what's typically, you know, I guess a procedurally, you know, seasonally like a little bit slower 3Q versus 2Q. Just wanted to hear about, you know, what you're seeing in that business in terms of trend, how we should kind of think about fourth quarter, whether that's contemplated in the guidance, and then just kind of the pace of the penetration, what you think, do you need the guidelines to go deeper, just any thoughts on that, thank you.
Frank Stokes
Chief Financial Officer
Sure, thanks for joining us here. Still real happy with TissueCypher. We're probably around 15% penetrated on a run rate basis. in terms of the eligible procedures a year. The procedure there are surveillance endoscopy for Barrett's and it looks like we're about 15% penetrated on that. But yeah, I think the trends will continue through the end of the year that we've seen. The guidance certainly contemplates that. We've got a nice early start in that test here in the early years and still plenty of room to go. But good solid quarter for the test. We see it continuing through the end of the year. and we like the business quite a bit.
Bradley Bowers
Analyst, Mizuho
Got it. That's helpful. Just maybe one other one on profit. Gross margin actually held on a bit better than I think we were expecting. I know that there was some one-time pricing items in one age. That would imply that I guess most of this was organic or are we still kind of expecting a fall off and what should we be thinking about kind of into the end of the year and next year? Thank you.
Frank Stokes
Chief Financial Officer
I think adjusted gross margins stay pretty consistent through the year here. We've done some nice work in the lab improving our efficiencies there. Some of it's with people, some's with technology, but I think that number's probably pretty durable through the year. Importantly there, a big part of that is the number of unpaid tests, and so it looks like that's kind of staying consistent through the year as well.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Our next question comes from Max Mizuki with Roth Capital Partners. Your line is now live.
Max Mizuki
Analyst, Roth Capital Partners
Hey, thanks for taking the questions. Just first one, you know, even if you carry forward the Q3 beat, the implied Q4 guide is strong. So talk about, you know, are there any sort of Emerging drivers or areas of outperformance that are powering that Q4 implied strength, and is that coming from the core business or any sort of new incremental contributors?
Frank Stokes
Chief Financial Officer
Just core business, Max. Good to talk to you. Just continue to see the core business do well through the end of the year.
Max Mizuki
Analyst, Roth Capital Partners
Okay, got it. And so moving to DecisionDx Melanoma, I think previously called out, you know, reps adjusting to selling multiple tests. Just curious, you know, just looking for a little bit more detail on the growth trends for DecisionDx Melanoma in the quarter. And if there's anything, you know, any impact coming from, you know, software ordering or, you know, competitive pressures. So really just structural versus kind of transitory factors in the quarter.
Derek Maetzold
Founder, President and Chief Executive Officer
This is Derek Maetzold. Good to hear you. Certainly nothing structural. We remain on target to reach our volume guidance that we provided at the start of the year, so nothing's changed from that perspective, and we're quite pleased with the year-to-date growth and the expectation we have for the fourth quarter.
Max Mizuki
Analyst, Roth Capital Partners
Okay, got it. Maybe I'll sneak one more quick one in. It's great to see the ISO predict volumes for, I believe, the first time. It looks like it implies a strong sequential ramp this quarter. So what are the headline takeaways for that launch, I guess, even year to date? And just more broadly, how should we think about the role of that test within your portfolio and commercial potential over the longer term?
Frank Stokes
Chief Financial Officer
And, Max, you broke just a minute there. Which test were you asking about? SR-PROTECT. SR-PROTECT, sure. So when we acquired the test, we saw an opportunity there to potentially incorporate that into the patient flow for our broader Barrett's prognostic business. And so it's not a large number, but occasionally we do have samples we get in that we can't get adequate tissue to run tissue cipher on. EzoPredict is a different technology so we're able to in many cases pivot that over and provide a test report using EzoPredict and that's really more about you know certainly we want to be able to provide a clinical answer as many for as many patients as we can so by incorporating that into the into the flow. Again, it's not a big piece of business, but if you're one of those patients or their physician and there's an issue with the tissue and you can't quite get the answer we need with tissue cipher, it's quite comforting and clinically beneficial to be able to pivot that over to EzoPredict and provide a clinical answer. So I guess the summary there is it's doing exactly what we hoped it would do when we made that acquisition now just a bit over a year ago.
Max Mizuki
Analyst, Roth Capital Partners
Great, thanks, team.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Our next question comes from Subbu Nambi with Guggenheim Securities. Your line is now live.
Ethan
Analyst, Guggenheim Securities
Hi, guys. This is Ethan on for Subbu. Thanks for taking my question. Congrats on the quarter. You know, just on advanced ADTX, you know, CMS proposed gap fill instead of the panel's recommendation of crosswalk. I was just wondering if you submitted a comment or are seeking an alternative there. and if gap fill is the final decision, does that change anything about assumptions for Medicare revenue or your commercial payer negotiations?
Derek Maetzold
Founder, President and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, Ethan, this is Derek. Good questions there. So we were surprised to go ahead and see CMS not only with our advanced ADTX test but also other tests that are being priced. I don't want to just ignore or set aside the the advisory panel's recommendations to go to Gatville. Yes, we did submit appropriate additional crosswalk tests that actually had private payer data. I think schedule-wise, if you aren't aware of this, I think they anticipate probably taking a little bit longer to post this year for the final recommendations. It usually comes around Thanksgiving week, but I think we've been led to believe it could be early December. and I think we have logic that would say they should be crosswalking to existing genome expression profile tests run on NGS in which there is private payer data.
Thomas Flatton
Analyst, Lake Street Capital
Thank you.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Our next question comes from Mason Carrico with Stevens. Your line is now live.
Mason Carrico
Analyst, Stephens
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the question. So ASP has obviously been strong throughout this year. Could you just talk through some of maybe the coverage wins that have helped drive that and maybe your expectations around the durability of ASP moving forward or any maybe near-term incremental gains that you have visibility into today?
Frank Stokes
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, thanks for the question, Mason. As you know, we don't typically talk about coverage decisions and we'll probably continue to take that stance. We're pleased with what we're seeing on the ASP front. It represents both, I think it's a durable patient mix, Mason. I think that progress is probably durable. We don't necessarily model incremental upside going forward, and if we see it, we'll take it. But I think we're pleased with where we've gotten on both of our primary drivers here, and I think we expect that progress to be durable for the near to midterm here.
Mason Carrico
Analyst, Stephens
Got it. Okay, thanks. And maybe moving to dermatology here, could you expand, I guess, or give us some color on what the split looked like from a commercial standpoint across kind of your three core dermatology products and maybe how we should think about how much time the commercial team is spending on each as we move into 2027 and 80 TX kind of volumes open up?
Frank Stokes
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, and by split, you mean sort of focus time and focus on marketing?
Mason Carrico
Analyst, Stephens
Exactly, yeah.
Frank Stokes
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, still very much focused on melanoma. We certainly have an abandoned STC. As you can see from the volumes, it's still a very clinically relevant test, and we've not meaningfully supported that from a marketing perspective yet. for several quarters here, but the volumes have stayed to be impressive. And I think that speaks to, one, the value of that clinical information to physicians. And we talked with you before about the challenge and the decision they have with a high-risk STC patient, particularly of a Medicare age who may be more fragile from a health perspective otherwise anyway, and trying to make that really hard decision. about whether to send that patient to adjuvant radiation therapy or not. So I think that we don't have to say anything. The volume says that that's a clinically very, very important test. AD is, we're just not really putting a lot of force behind it while we go through the process here of figuring out what the ASPs are going to look like. And we'll make that decision soon. And it's a really, there's a lot of value in that test as well. There's a lot of economic benefit from the test. But for now, we're still really focused, the Durham team, primarily on melanoma. and that business in progress.
Mason Carrico
Analyst, Stephens
Got it. Thanks, guys.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Our next question comes from Kyle Nixon with Canaccord Genuity. Your line is now live.
Charlotte Maurer
Analyst, Canaccord Genuity
Hi, this is Charlotte Maurer on for Kyle Nixon. Congrats on the great quarter and thanks for taking our questions. First, on DecisionDxSEC, A volume has remained under pressure following the loss of Medicare coverage. Where does that process stand today, and what should we view as the next meaningful milestone? Is a CCAC meeting in the first half of 2027 a reasonable expectation, or how do you think we should think about the potential timing from there to a draft LCD and then ultimately coverage? Thanks.
Derek Maetzold
Founder, President and Chief Executive Officer
That's actually a question, Charlotte. This is Derek here. The sort of, I guess, our expectation or guidance we put out will be certainly we don't have in our 2027 revenue any assumptions for recovering Medicare coverage in 27, so we put it into our 28 plan right now. I think seeing a draft LCD come out with or without a PAC meeting is probably a reasonable expectation. There's nothing formal for us to go and provide you with this time, but I think certainly something we just go ahead and see the next couple of months, the next quarter or two, is not on a reasonable expectation.
Charlotte Maurer
Analyst, Canaccord Genuity
Great. Thank you. And then if I could ask another question. Total revenue during the quarter came in well ahead of expectations. Given the volume and performance across decision GX melanoma and tissue cipher, could you help us bridge where that revenue upside maybe came from and then what drove that guidance increase? Like how much was driven by stronger ASPs or prior period collections across your Poor Products versus Volume or other factors. Thanks.
Frank Stokes
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, sure. Prior period wasn't really a big factor in there. The drivers were primarily ASPs on our two lead products, and we did have some ahead of expectation SCC revenue. We don't break it out, but it was certainly ahead of what we had this time last year, what we modeled it would be. Primarily ASP, a little bit of volume on FCC, but just good solid progress from the core drivers of revenue. And as it relates to the revised guidance, I think what you see is that's reflective of our confidence in the state of play for Q3 continuing into Q4 through the end of 26 here.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Our next question comes from Matthew Parisi with KeyBank Capital Markets. Your line is now live.
Matthew Parisi
Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets
Hi, yes, this is Matthew Parisi on for Paul Knight at KeyBank Capital Markets. Congrats on the great quarter and thanks for the questions. You called out the increase in lab headcount to handle the increase in test volumes that you're seeing. Should we expect to continue to see lab headcount and expenses rise with the rising test volumes or do you now have the infrastructure in place to be able to kind of handle them going forward?
Frank Stokes
Chief Financial Officer
So definitely as volumes grow, headcount in our COGS area in the labs does grow along with it. It's not one for one. We get leverage and we get incremental efficiencies. But the technology in the lab is very good. The efficiency is very good. It's just a matter of bandwidth. As the volumes grow, we will have to add people in both facilities, Pittsburgh and Scottsdale, and we would expect to see that going forward as well.
Matthew Parisi
Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets
Awesome. Appreciate the insight. And then if I can squeeze in one more, would you expect any long-term impact for decision DX melanoma stemming from the Moderna personalized cancer vaccine readout? Just kind of what you're thinking about that long-term.
Derek Maetzold
Founder, President and Chief Executive Officer
Uplift on the Vaccine Readout, you mean? Okay. Yes, I think that potentially could be a very interesting area of driving our decision-based melanoma growth over the long term. As you may recall, today there are adjuvant therapies, P1 inhibitors, IPI approved for, I guess, stage 2 BC and stage 3. Patients. Unfortunately, of course, the majority of patients who we test are really early, which are kind of stage 1 to 2A, so there are no really adjuvant therapies available today, so most of our clinical use, as you know, is going to be either avoiding an unnecessary sentinel-to-biopsy surgical procedure, and also then if you happen to have a high-risk DecisionDx melanoma test result, we see many physicians pushing forward on either implementing routine imaging, some are adopting early use of ctDNA to kind of look for early recurrences. So those are important actionable steps because we have seen that if you can initiate immunotherapy when a metastatic spread is detected when it's small, which is usually asymptomatic and picked up on imaging or DGDNA trends, then those patients have a higher likelihood of a more robust response. I think the hope would be that as the vaccines progress, and assuming that the developments are all successful, that those could hopefully move into earlier stage patient populations of the ones that we are more routinely testing. And I think then the thesis becomes now you have a dermatologist, a surgeon, or a medical oncologist saying, okay, I have a lower risk patient by staging but a very high risk by the CASL decision DX melanoma test. This is a patient we should preferentially look to initiate that adjuvant therapy. So I think that's where we see it going. If that's where your question was heading, that's where I hope the marketplace gets to.
Matthew Parisi
Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets
Great. Thank you. And congrats again on the great quarter. Thank you.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Our next question comes from Thomas Flatton with Lake Street Capital. Your line is now live.
Thomas Flatton
Analyst, Lake Street Capital
Hey, guys. Appreciate you taking the questions. Just a quick one on the pipeline. What cadence of news and activities should we anticipate over 2027, particularly with respect to the Sybase collaboration?
Derek Maetzold
Founder, President and Chief Executive Officer
We haven't released much time, as I'll think. I thought we had talked about it in third quarter earnings. In the first half of next year, we expect to go ahead and have updates on pipeline progress. But I think beyond that, we're not prepared to go and give you any more specific dates or months at this point in time, Thomas. Got it.
Thomas Flatton
Analyst, Lake Street Capital
No, no, no worries. And then Frank, just if I'm doing my back of the envelope math correctly here, the midpoint of the guide implies a slightly down to flat fourth quarter over a third quarter. Is that just conservatism baked in or are there other things we should be attended to? And I apologize if we're retreading ground here.
Frank Stokes
Chief Financial Officer
No, no, just your math's good. You know, typically Q4 can be a little bit Seasonally Lighter, just as practices. There's a big range of how medical practices handle the December holidays. And so that treatment of the holidays tends to disrupt part of the quarter a little bit. So that's all you're seeing there.
Thomas Flatton
Analyst, Lake Street Capital
Got it. Appreciate it. Thank you.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Our next question comes from Puneet Sara with Larrink Partners. Your line is now live.
Carlos Antroponete
Analyst, Leerink Partners
Hey, everyone. This is Carlos Antroponete. Thanks for the question and congrats on the quarter. So, you know, one thing that we've seen emerge this year has been a bit more seasonality in tissue cipher. And, you know, if I'm doing my math right, you know, I think sequentially you're going to be up around 1,000 units in the fourth quarter compared to just shy of 600, you know, this quarter. And we saw the seasonality between Q1 and Q2 as well. So you're not asking for a 2027 guide yet, but You know, it'd be helpful to, you know, think about how you folks are thinking about the seasonality in the context of, you know, future years for what is still, you know, a very rapidly growing test that's penetrating an under-penetrated market and how those factors balance with each other.
Frank Stokes
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, you know, with all of our therapeutic areas and all of our tests within those areas, there's definitely going to be seasonality there. And, you know, sometimes you'll hear it called out with, you know, maybe there's a weather event or, you know, maybe there's a holiday or something like that. So, quarter to quarter, the number of business days in a quarter may be close, but the number of those days that are actually operating days kind of varies from quarter to quarter. I would expect we've always seen that, but when you're in the earlier growth stages, you're kind of growing through it, and the growth kind of camouflages that. We don't really have any particular strategy or tactic to try to manage that. Our teams have quarterly expectations, and they don't change based on for better or for worse. They're consistent regardless of the of where it falls in the calendar. But the other thing just to keep in mind through this year is, you know, we have had a couple of changes in the size of the sales force on Tissue Cipher. And so that causes a, you know, the good news is you add sales reps, you've got a bigger megaphone. But, you know, short term there are some dislocations in coverages and sometimes that can create a little bit of bumpiness as well. I expect we'll see that with TissueCypher going forward. It doesn't really change our view on the opportunity or how we execute against it. It just means that some quarters you get more working days than others, and sometimes those working days are more fruitful than others. So no real change, and I think it's just the reality of the business.
Carlos Antroponete
Analyst, Leerink Partners
All right, thanks. That's really helpful. Appreciate it. And staying on TissueCypher, We've talked a little bit about, I think you're starting to see some wins with commercial payers for Tissue Cipher just based on the utility of the test and how it really is guiding therapy. So it would be great to get some color on how significant this ASP contribution is right now and how significant it could be as we look forward over the next few years.
Frank Stokes
Chief Financial Officer
I would assume ASPs are steady from here. We hope to see upside, but as you note, it's difficult to both scale and timing. I think that when you look at the ability to identify really high-risk patients that weren't being appropriately surveilled and the benefits of that, I think that resonates with certainly clinicians but also payers as well. And then you have the other side of the coin. You have the patient who might have been over-surveilled and you can downgrade that and have a very beneficial impact on the patient's care as well as on the cost of that care. So we continue to work very hard to demonstrate the clinical utility and the economic benefit to payers and we would hope and expect to continue to have successes through the next couple of years. But in terms of modeling and how we look at the business, we just sort of assume we're gonna hold where we are and we'll take the win when it comes.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
All right. Thanks. Very helpful. Our next question comes from Mark Mazzaro with U.S. Bancorp. Your line is now live.
Megan
Analyst, U.S. Bancorp
This is Megan on for Mark. Thank you for taking our questions. So we're just curious if you have an update on the size of the sales team since Q2, especially with regards to Tissue Slifer. With volumes up and we're just looking to see if there's any new territories being opened or if the current headcount is sufficient to sustain the growth that we've been seeing.
Derek Maetzold
Founder, President and Chief Executive Officer
Bell Force Expansion on Tissue Cipher. Megan, did I hear that correctly? Yeah, you're just looking for Salesforce on both sides, right?
Frank Stokes
Chief Financial Officer
Yep. Both are around 100 or under 100, and we think both are sufficient for now. I don't think we had. It's been a bit since we had an expansion on either side, I think.
Derek Maetzold
Founder, President and Chief Executive Officer
Second quarter was with Tissue Cipher, most recent expansion. So those, if our historical... Norms in terms of when the new area managers or sales representatives are fully operational. That's about five to six months in our model. We should expect to see some impact here in the fourth quarter, but more so going into 2027. I think we are set up well for a continued growth in 2027 based on our investments this year.
Megan
Analyst, U.S. Bancorp
Great. Thank you, guys.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
We have reached the end of the question and answer session. I'd now like to turn the call back over to Derek Maetzold for closing comments. Thank you.
Derek Maetzold
Founder, President and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you. This concludes our third quarter 2026 earnings call. Thank you again for joining us today for your continued interest in Castle Biosciences.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Thanks, everybody. This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.