CTOS Custom Truck One Source, Inc.
$10.51
Custom Truck One Source, Inc. Q3 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript
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Conference Call Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to Custom Truck One Source's third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Please note this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your host today, Brian Perman, Vice President of Investor Relations for Custom Truck One Source.
Brian Perman
Vice President of Investor Relations
Thank you, operator, and good morning. Before we begin, we would like to remind you that management's commentary and responses to questions on today's call may include forward-looking statements which, by their nature, are uncertain and outside of the company's control. Although these forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and beliefs, actual results may differ materially. For discussion of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ, please refer to the risk factor section of the company's filings with the SEC. Additionally, please note that you can find reconciliations of the historical non-GAAP financial measures discussed during the call in the press release we issued yesterday after the market close. That press release and our third quarter investor presentation are posted on the investor relations section of our website. Yesterday afternoon, we also filed our third quarter 2026 10Q with the SEC. Today's discussion of our results of operations for Custom Truck One Source, Inc. or Custom Truck is presented on a historical basis as of or for the three months ended September 30th, 2026 and prior periods. Joining me today are Ryan McMonagle, CEO and Chris Eperjesy, CFO. I will now turn the call over to Ryan.
Ryan McMonagle
Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Brian. And good morning, everyone. Custom Truck delivered another strong quarter led by record performance in our rental business. Third quarter adjusted EBITDA was $111 million, up 16% year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA is up 24% through the first nine months. SER segment revenue was up 18%, and STEM segment revenue was up 8% year-over-year. Consolidated revenue finished at $495 million, up 3%. On the strength of these results, we are raising our full year adjusted EBITDA guidance for the third time this year. SER continues to deliver consistently strong performance, driven by record demand in the transmission and distribution or T&D markets. Our rental fleet averaged 81.5% utilization during the third quarter, up 220 basis points from Q3 of last year. This was supported by record levels of OEC on rent, which averaged just under $1.4 billion in Q3, up more than 10% year over year. So far in Q4, both measures have remained quite strong, with OEC on rent currently greater than $1.5 billion and utilization surpassing 84%. As I said last quarter, we believe that we are in the early stages of what could be a once-in-a-generation transmission demand super cycle, which our SER third quarter results support. We ended the third quarter with total OEC of over $1.76 billion, up almost $86 million in the quarter and the highest quarter-end level in our history. The continued investment in our rental fleet reflects sustained record-level demand and supports our expected continued growth in SER for the remainder of the year and into 2027. Given the additional growth capex in our fleet year to date, our average fleet age is just under three years old, which we continue to believe is one of the youngest fleets in the industry and positions us well to support our customers' needs across the country. I want to spend a minute on capital allocation because it was the most important decision we made this quarter. Demand from our transmission customers, much of it tied to long duration projects, has continued to build beyond what our original fleet plan assumed. We chose to meet that demand. We are raising our 2026 net rental fleet investment to $210 to $230 million. with the incremental dollars going into long-term transmission rentals and high return specialty products. And we directed STEM production capacity to our own fleet to get these units on rent faster. These are the highest return dollars we can deploy. Rental gross margins were nearly 79% in the quarter and on-rent yield was over 39%. The trade-off is timing. Levered free cash flow this year will now be slightly positive, rather than the more than $50 million we had expected, and most of the earnings from these units arrive in 2027. To size that, at today's rental rates and utilization, roughly $60 million of fleet generates approximately $20 million of annualized revenue and $15 million of annualized adjusted EBITDA. So the incremental units we are adding this year should be a meaningful contributor in 2027 with only a modest contribution in 2026 given delivery timing. Even with that investment, net leverage fell to 3.7 times this quarter, down sequentially from Q2, and we remain committed to getting below three times in 2027. Our trucks and equipment continue to power the people who strengthen and build critical infrastructure in the U.S. and Canada. The market has been focused on the durability of demand in T&D and our ability to convert improving rental KPIs into earnings and deleveraging. And we believe our trending results over recent quarters speak directly to that. Bidding activity and ongoing conversations with our customers lead us to believe that these conditions will persist into the fourth quarter and beyond. Our STEM segment had a solid quarter. With strong order flow, third quarter orders were up 22% year over year, even as third party deliveries were affected by timing. For Q3, overall STEM revenue was up more than 8%, while third party revenue, excluding sales to our SER segment, was down 5% versus Q3 of 2025. Third party revenue in the quarter was impacted by our strategic decision to prioritize additional investment in the rental fleet, to take advantage of current and anticipated rental demand. As we noted in August, certain third-party new equipment sales were delivered in the second quarter rather than in the second half, which also weighs on the third quarter comparison. Additionally, STEM saw more than $20 million of delayed new equipment sales in Q3, resulting from a chassis vendor recall, as well as the need to repair damage to some of our vehicle inventory from a hailstorm at our Kansas City facility during the quarter. Excluding these delayed deliveries, STEM third party revenue would have been up year over year. We believe these are short term timing issues and that these sales will be recognized in the fourth quarter. We continue to have a high degree of confidence in our STEM business and are affirming our STEM revenue guidance for 2026. New sales order backlog ended the third quarter at $342 million, up $19 million from the end of Q2, and up 22% year over year. Intra-quarter order flow remained strong in Q3, and our backlog has grown so far in Q4. We continue to see strong sales demand in the utility and market, focused on both transmission and distribution equipment. In the infrastructure and market, we have seen less growth. However, third quarter orders grew strongly in several categories, and together with our ongoing conversations with our customers and the pace of bidding activity, this gives us the confidence to expect another year of growth in third party customer revenue for STEM. With respect to the EPA 27 NOx emission regulations, little has changed since the EPA introduced its proposed changes to the rules in early July. Given our current inventory position, the chassis pre-buy actions we have already taken, and our strong relationships with our chassis OEM partners, we continue to believe that CTAS is well positioned to navigate the impact of the upcoming emission standards changes. Given our strong year-to-date performance, robust conditions in the T&D end markets, and our outlook for the rest of the year, we are raising our full-year 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance for the third time this year, and now expect a range of $447.5 to $460 million. We are also raising our SER segment revenue guidance to $870 to $890 million and are affirming our previous consolidated revenue guidance in the range of $2.1 to $2.2 billion. Long-term, sustained in-market demand buoyed by secular megatrends combined with our ability to provide exceptional execution on behalf of our customers sets us apart from our competition. Our longstanding relationships with our strategic suppliers and customers continue to be the keys to our success. I continue to have the highest degree of confidence in the Custom Truck team and want to thank everyone for their hard work and dedication that helped deliver our strong results in the third quarter. We look forward to updating everyone soon. With that, I'll turn it over to Chris to walk through the numbers in more detail.
Chris Eperjesy
Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Ryan, and good morning, everyone. I'll start with consolidated results for the quarter, then discuss segment performance, our balance sheet, liquidity, and leverage, and finally our updated 2026 outlook. Our third quarter 2026 results reflect strong operating performance across the business and record rental fundamentals, particularly in our T&D end markets. For the third quarter, total revenue was $495 million and adjusted EBITDA was $111 million, representing 3% and 16% growth, respectively, versus Q3 2025. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 22.4%, up roughly 250 basis points year over year, and our fourth consecutive quarter above 20%. On a GAAP basis, third quarter net income was over $2 million or one cent per diluted share compared with a net loss of just under $6 million a year ago. Year to date net income is almost $9 million versus a net loss of just under $52 million in the same period last year. About $11 million of that year over year improvement reflects a favorable income tax swing, a $2 million benefit this year which includes a discrete benefit from a reduction in our valuation allowance versus roughly $9 million of tax expense in the prior year period. The balance was driven by higher operating income and lower interest expense. Turning to our segments, SCR delivered record results in Q3 with total revenue of $223 million up 18% versus Q3 2025 driven by strong double-digit growth in both rental revenue and rental equipment sales activity. Rental revenue of $153 million grew 20% year-over-year, and rental equipment sales grew 14%. RPO activity in Q3 remains strong, highlighting the continued robust demand for our equipment. Third-party revenue, excluding intersegment sales, was $212 million in the quarter, up 16% year-over-year. Segment-adjusted EBITDA of $122 million was up approximately 23% year-over-year, with segment-adjusted EBITDA margin of 54.6%, up almost 220 basis points versus Q3 2025. Our key rental KPIs and SER remain very strong and ahead of expectations in Q3, continuing the momentum we've experienced in recent quarters. In Q3, utilization averaged 81.5% of 220 basis points versus Q3 of last year. Average OEC on rent in the quarter was over $1.39 billion, up more than $132 million or more than 10% versus the same period in 2025. On rent yield in the third quarter was 39.4%, flat sequentially and up 120 basis points year over year. On rent yield remains within our targeted upper 30s to low 40s percent range, and we continue to see opportunities for rate improvement as transmission mix grows and pricing discipline holds. Our historically strong rental KPIs reflect both increased rental activity and the continued scaling of our fleet to meet demand. Adjusted rental gross margin was approximately 79% in the quarter, above the mid-70s range we discussed last quarter, reflecting high utilization, the continued flow through from our December price increase, and our focus on controlling costs. Net rental capex in Q3 was $114 million, and our fleet age at quarter end was just under three years, a modest decrease from the end of last quarter, driven by our increased growth capex. are always seeing the rental fleet end of the quarter at over $1.76 billion, up more than $140 million versus the end of Q3 2025 and by almost $86 million sequentially. The increase reflects strategic and disciplined fleet investment in the face of strong demand, particularly in T&D. In STEM, third quarter total revenue was $442 million, up 8% year over year. Third-party revenue, excluding sales to our SER segment, was $283 million, down 5% versus Q3 of 2025. As Ryan mentioned, sales to third parties were down year-over-year as we chose to strategically prioritize our production for additional investment in the rental fleet to take advantage of current and anticipated rental demand. As we noted last quarter, certain third party new equipment sales were delivered in the second quarter rather than in the second half, which also weighs on the third quarter comparison. In addition, sales were negatively impacted by more than $20 million of sales delayed by a chassis vendor recall, as well as the need to repair damage to some of our vehicle inventory from a hailstorm that occurred during the quarter. We believe these events represent temporary timing issues and that the delayed sales will be completed in the fourth quarter. Stem segment adjusted EBITDA was $37 million and segment adjusted EBITDA margin was 8.3% in the quarter. Recall that our 2025 segment adjusted EBITDA does not include any margin on intersegment sales while 2026 segment adjusted EBITDA does. Stem gross margin in the quarter was slightly lower, largely as a result of mix. Our new sales backlog ended Q3 at $342 million, up $19 million sequentially, and at 3.8 months, just below our targeted range of four to six months of new equipment sales. We've seen strong order growth so far in Q4, and our backlog currently stands at almost $400 million. Turning to the balance sheet and liquidity, with LTM adjusted EBIT of $446 million, and net debt of $1.65 billion, we finished Q3 with net leverage of 3.7 times. This represents a sequential quarterly improvement of 0.15 turns and more than a 0.8 turn improvement versus the end of Q3 2025. Notably, net debt is essentially flat year over year, even as we have grown our rental fleet by more than $140 million of what we see. Availability under our ABL was $234 million as of September 30th. And based on our borrowing base, we have just under $290 million of additional availability that we could potentially access via our existing facility. Inventory ended the third quarter at $1.016 billion, down $26 million from the end of the second quarter. The increase in our inventory during the first half of this year was largely planned, reflecting chassis and whole goods positioning ahead of scheduled second half deliveries. As we prepare for our expected growth in 2027 and chassis receipts under our previously discussed pre-buy program ahead of 2027 emissions regulations, we now expect year-end 2026 inventory months on hand to be approximately flat with year-end 2025. With respect to our 2026 guidance, the demand environment across our key end markets remains very strong. for our SCR segment, demand for equipment serving the T&D markets remains at record levels, led by transmission demand. Total average OECN rent was up more than $132 million year over year in the third quarter, driven by transmission. Further penetration of the vocational rental market, where OECN rent increased approximately $45 million year over year, is expected to provide incremental growth. We expect our key rental KPIs to remain strong in Q4 with the typical seasonal reduction around the holidays. For STEM, we expect fourth quarter third party new sales to increase at a mid to high teens rate year over year as the deliveries that were delayed in the third quarter are completed. STEM sales expectations are supported by continued strong customer demand, improving product availability and lead times, and relationships with key customers and chassis and attachment suppliers. Our order backlog trends support this. Turning to the cash flow and capital allocation, through the first nine months, levered free cash flow was approximately $4 million, an improvement of about $79 million versus the prior year period. Given the demand trends in our TNDN markets, we are increasing our 2026 net rental fleet investment to $210 to $230 million, about $35 million above the midpoint of our prior range, which corresponds to gross fleet investment of approximately $400 million to $430 million. The incremental spending is concentrated in long-term transmission rentals and high-return specialty products and supports high single-digit ending what we see growth this year. Even with this increase, net fleet investment remains below the more than $250 million we invested in 2025. Rental equipment we add today earns an on-rent yield near 40% at rental gross margins in the high 70s. As a result of the additional fleet investment, together with year-end inventory months on hand that we now expect to be roughly flat with last year, we now expect 2026 levered free cash flow to be slightly positive compared to our prior expectation of more than $50 million. Both are investments in 2027 earnings. As Ryan noted, The incremental fleet alone represents roughly $15 million of annualized adjusted EBITDA once fully on rent. We expect to finish 2026 with net leverage well below four times, and we continue to target below three times in 2027, driven by adjusted EBITDA growth and improved levered free cash flow resulting from lower net fleet investment and reduced inventory levels in 2027. We're affirming our 2026 consolidated revenue guidance of $2.1 to $2.2 billion, or year-over-year growth of 8% to 13%. Given the strong environment in the T&D end markets and overall strength across both of our segments, we are raising both the bottom and top ends of our adjusted EBITDA guidance and now project a range of $447.5 to $460 million, resulting in year-over-year growth of 17% to 20%. We still expect non-rental capex of $40 to $50 million. We are increasing our SER revenue guidance for 2026 as well, projecting a range of $870 to $890 million. We continue to project STEM revenue of $1.63 to $1.7 billion, with STEM third-party new sales revenue growth of 3% to 10%. Overall, STEM sales are expected to be down marginally to up 3%, with results now expected toward the upper end of that range as higher than planned intersegment sales to support our rental fleet growth, supplement third party growth. For the fourth quarter, we expect consolidated revenue and adjusted EBITDA to be up both sequentially and year over year. So far in the fourth quarter, our OECN rent is significantly above prior year levels. We expect both OECN rent and utilization to grow sequentially. on a consolidated basis, the fourth quarter remains our historically strongest quarter. In closing, I want to echo Ryan's comments regarding our continued strong business outlook. Despite broader macroeconomic uncertainty, recent results and end market fundamentals support our competence in the long-term demand drivers and our ability to deliver 17 to 20% adjusted EBITDA growth this year. With LTM adjusted EBITDA now above $446 million, We currently expect another year of double digit adjusted EBITDA growth in 2027. We will provide full 2027 guidance when we report fourth quarter results early next year. With that, operator, we can open the line for questions.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
We will now begin the question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star one again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality. If you're muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Michael Schliske with DA Davidson. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Michael Schliske
Analyst, D.A. Davidson
Good morning and thank you for taking my questions. Can we, hey there guys, can we start with your comments, Ryan, on the utilization in the current quarter? I think you mentioned it exceeded 84% at this point of the year. but you expect that to come down and kind of be more normalized in that low A's that you've seen by the end of the quarter as the assets that you're trying to roll out, I would assume, still have some ways to go for the rest of the quarter here. Or do you think that A4 is actually okay and maybe at the high end of that sweet spot range?
Ryan McMonagle
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, it's a good question, Mike. There's two things I think that are really worth highlighting. One, we're seeing it generally increases this time of year. So really, late October into November really is one that will continue to build, and that's what we're seeing currently. So that's trending. But the demand for transmission, Mike, right now is so strong that certainly as we're talking internally, I think there will be some customers who decide to keep equipment rather than returning it, which is what normally happens during the holidays, just because it may not be available for them after the holidays. And so I think it will. And I think Chris made the comment that it will slow down a little bit in December, but we think it will not be as significant. The demand environment right there, Mike, is so good that I think people don't want to lose some of that transmission gear in particular.
Michael Schliske
Analyst, D.A. Davidson
Got it. Great. And then your comments that you've made all along here about really good demand sounds like it's both transmission and distribution. Is a lot of that really still pinned on data centers and the AI in various communities, or is it really the older and other drivers that you have which are just ongoing grid hardening and maintenance and expansion for everyday activities not related to a data center. I guess I'm kind of curious, are you getting any pushback from anyone saying we're going to be holding off a little bit on that data center activity late 2016 to 2017 as, you know, communities speak out, election day passes, et cetera, or are you still seeing strong impacts from the older drivers?
Ryan McMonagle
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, we're still seeing good growth. It's a great question. And we are we're still seeing good growth, Mike. And so I think you're right, as we've talked about in the past, it's we're not data center specific that when a new data center is announced, somehow that drives incremental demand for specific CTAS equipment. It's much more that that's just a big consumer of power. And so, you know, I think a lot of what we're seeing right now, we would be talking about even if it was just the grid upgrade and some of the modernization that was happening, certainly data centers are a consumer of power. And so that's a very good thing. for us. But we're seeing a lot. We have our own construction trackers that we're tracking on the transmission side. As we talk to our customers, they're all talking about new projects that are going into construction. There's obviously a lot of line upgrades that are happening right now. And then you're correct. Distribution is also in a very good spot right now. And we're seeing rate cases continue to be approved. And so we're seeing when we look forward with our own forecasting, it feels like 27 and really into 28. It will continue to be a very strong demand environment which should benefit Custom Truck and certainly with some of the other macro dynamics going on will benefit the Rural Fleet in particular.
Michael Schliske
Analyst, D.A. Davidson
Got it. Maybe the last one for me. The impact from the hailstorm, I was curious whether that was covered by any kind of insurance or was going to be in the fourth quarter and then even the product recall You have to actually send trucks back. Did they have your techs take care of the recall? Are you going to be paid for that as well?
Chris Eperjesy
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, Mike, this is Chris. In terms of the hailstorm, you know, in the big picture, it was relatively immaterial. And yes, it's covered by insurance. We had a $1 million deductible on our policy, and it did go above that, but not much above that. And on the second one, we're working with the dealers to get the repairs done and the OEM is covering those costs. And again, we think both of those will kind of unwind here in the fourth quarter.
Michael Schliske
Analyst, D.A. Davidson
Great. I appreciate the answers. I'll pass it along.
Chris Eperjesy
Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Mike.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Manish Sameya with Cantor Fitzgerald. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Manish Sameya
Analyst, Cantor Fitzgerald
Thank you. Good morning, Ryan, Chris, Brian, and the team. My first question is on SER margins, which were quite impressive this quarter at 54.6%. How should we think about those margins as we move ahead? Is the mid-50s the right normalized range, or is this sort of a temporary blip? Maybe if we can start there.
Chris Eperjesy
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, Mike. Sorry, Manish. It's Chris. If you look back, I think we've been living kind of in that low to mid-50s for the past few quarters. I would expect that we can continue to live there. There may be some upside, a little bit of upside there, but the answer is yes. I think modeling kind of in the low to mid-50s is a reasonable number.
Ryan McMonagle
Chief Executive Officer
A lot of that would just be a function of mix, too, between core rental revenue and then what assets are sold out of the rental fleet. And so that's really...
Manish Sameya
Analyst, Cantor Fitzgerald
Okay, and then I think on the pricing front, sorry, Ryan, I don't know if I interrupted on something. The line just kind of cut off a little bit. Okay, sorry. On the pricing that we had at 39.4%, you know, again, despite all the growth that you had on the fleet side, Maybe if you can just give us a sense on what you're seeing, what the opportunity is for higher pricing as we go into 27. I think you guys have alluded to the fact that the transmission markets are quite strong as we move into 27 and into 28 as well. But again, just trying to understand what the flexibility might be on the pricing front with the strong demand.
Ryan McMonagle
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I think there should I think it should be a good demand environment. And so that means that there should be a pricing opportunity. I think we're seeing the price increase that we actually took last December continue to roll through. We're seeing some of the benefit of transmission is typically a higher rate or higher on rate yield. So we're seeing some positive mix that way. And then, yes, I would expect as we start to think about guidance in the twenty seven that there will be The opportunity to increase price. Some of that will be to take care of some of the cost increases that we're seeing from our suppliers heading into 27. But it should be an opportunity to increase price as well.
Manish Sameya
Analyst, Cantor Fitzgerald
And just on the infrastructure markets, you know, the transport bill, I guess, is still out there pending some permanency. and then on the telecom side, I think you did kind of mention Bede that could potentially help that market. So perhaps if you can just give us your sense as to how you're thinking about the transportation bill, those markets plus potentially the positive impact from Bede as we kind of look ahead.
Ryan McMonagle
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, it's look, infrastructure transmission and distribution has been incredibly strong. Right. And I think that's certainly what what we're seeing, you know, and that shows up more are really beginning to pick up. Some of that is related to more data center construction. So there's some positive from data center construction. We haven't seen a big lift yet from bead. As you know, telecom is a small part of our business, but we have not seen that materialize yet in any significant lift.
Manish Sameya
Analyst, Cantor Fitzgerald
Right. And then just lastly, you know, on the leverage metrics that you laid out for 27, you know, below three times in 27, how should we think about the deleveraging, you know, as far as the mix between EBITDA growth and debt pay down? You know, for modeling purposes, is it safe to assume sort of like a 50-50 type scenario?
Chris Eperjesy
Chief Financial Officer
This is Chris again. We haven't really given specific guidance for next year yet, and we will coming out of Q4. So we have given a little bit of guidance indicating that we're going to have double digit EBITDA growth next year. But the answer to your question is it'll be a combination of both. Certainly, there's going to be a part of the deleveraging that comes from the double digit EBITDA growth. But we're also going to continue to focus on generating free cash flow and paying down debt. So it'll be a combination of both and coming out of Q4. will give a lot more granularity on kind of the path to get there.
Manish Sameya
Analyst, Cantor Fitzgerald
Okay. Well, thank you so much, guys. Congrats. Thank you.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
The next question comes from the line of Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer & Co. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Daniel
Analyst, Oppenheimer & Co. (calling for Scott Schneeberger)
Hey, guys. Good morning. It's Daniel for Scott. Thank you for taking our question. I'm curious, could you please provide some color on the drivers of the backlog for STEM and how we should think about STEM generally as it pertains to that as we look into next year as it pertains to the double-digit adjusted EBITDA growth? So a little bit more color on the outlook for STEM, please. Thank you.
Ryan McMonagle
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, look, as we talked about, we saw backlog and order conversion both increase in the quarter, which to us is a positive indicator heading into Q4, which is typically the biggest quarter generally for STEM. So I think you'll see good growth there. And then I think year-to-date, year-to-date STEM third-party revenue is up. I think it's like 1.5%, if I'm not mistaken. And if you think about overall revenue year-to-date, it's up 5%, which includes adding the assets into the rental fleet. And so I think it will look similar as you're starting to think about what next year can look like. We see opportunities to grow. We'll obviously be thoughtful on how we invest in the rental fleet. But I think that kind of mid-single-digit growth is why we've continued to hold the guide from a STEM revenue perspective as well.
Daniel
Analyst, Oppenheimer & Co. (calling for Scott Schneeberger)
Thank you. And also think about the pull forward effect here from the fleet investment. I mean, it makes sense given the growth environment you are seeing. But as we think about the pull forward impact on CapEx and free cash flow into this year, that could catch up next year. How should we think about the magnitude of that? Please. Thank you.
Ryan McMonagle
Chief Executive Officer
I'll start and Chris can add some color. I mentioned in my comments that it was about $60 million is what we were talking about in terms of sizing. So you can think about that as a meaningful portion of the leverage-free cash flow we would have generated otherwise. And then we've tried to quantify that for you too. I think I said about $15 million of annualized EBITDA. And so to me, that's a pretty easy payback scenario as you start to think about 2027 and think about a three times leverage target on that incremental EBITDA. and then obviously the cash flow that generates next year too. But I think that's probably the right way to think about sizing and it should be additional growth for the FCR and for the rental fleet heading into 2027 and that would help quantify some of the cash impact as well.
Chris Eperjesy
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, probably the only other things I'd add is if you think about it year over year, the rental fleet is up about $150 million, leverage is down about 0.8 times. and we've been able to do that with slightly positive levered free cash flow. So I think we feel like it was a really good investment to set us up for next year as Ryan just kind of laid out the impact in 2027.
Daniel
Analyst, Oppenheimer & Co. (calling for Scott Schneeberger)
Got it. Thank you. Final one from me. I know that Dec mentioned disciplined SG&A management in the SAR segment. Could you guys please elaborate on that if there's any nuances we should think about? Thank you.
Ryan McMonagle
Chief Executive Officer
No, I think it's just an area that we've continued to stay focused on is let's be efficient with how we're spending SG&A. The teams have done a great job, you know, from a footprint perspective and then obviously from a managing kind of the overall cost perspective as well. So I think we feel like we're well positioned heading into the last quarter and heading into 2027 as well.
Daniel
Analyst, Oppenheimer & Co. (calling for Scott Schneeberger)
Got it. Thanks, guys. Congrats.
Ryan McMonagle
Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Daniel.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Brophy with Stifel. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Brian Brophy
Analyst, Stifel
Yeah, thanks. Good morning, everybody. Appreciate you taking the question. I'm curious how far out some of the large transmission projects are that you're talking with customers currently and what you would typically see in a more normalized demand environment. Thanks.
Ryan McMonagle
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, it's and I think that's why we say it's such a great demand environment, Brian, is because the dynamic has certainly changed. So we're talking about projects obviously now that are starting in twenty seven and some that are even starting in twenty twenty eight. And that's just a new dynamic for us generally. It's about projects that are starting in the next few weeks or maybe it's months in advance. And so that's, I think, why we made the decision to invest additional capital into the rental fleet, too, is that when we're making that investment, it's for projects that are imminent, that we're deploying that capital right away. And so I feel really good about that. And then the visibility forward has continued to stay very strong, which is why I think we're as optimistic about the growth we're seeing in 2027 and even into 2028 as well.
Brian Brophy
Analyst, Stifel
That's, yeah, appreciate it. That's very helpful. And then I guess just on the 20 million that was deferred in the quarter in STEM, how much of that has already been delivered here in October versus how much you're expecting kind of later in the quarter? Thanks.
Ryan McMonagle
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I think it's I think it's a majority has already been delivered. And so it's obviously as we're working through some of the recall issues, which, as Chris mentioned, the OEM and the dealer are both helping us kind of, you know, daily with that to work through those those issues. We're able to deliver that, you know, those trucks. So I think it's the majority of it has been delivered and the rest will will finish kind of over the rest of the quarter.
Brian Brophy
Analyst, Stifel
Appreciate it. I'll pass it on. Thanks, guys. Thanks, Brian. Thanks, Brian.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Nam Kaplan with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Nam Kaplan
Analyst, Deutsche Bank (calling for Nicole DeBlase)
Nam Kaplan Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. On the line for Nicole DeBlaise. Yeah, the first one, you described the current transmission market as potentially a once-in-a-generation cycle. So just wondering maybe if we can get a view into the customer conversations, maybe what's changed most meaningfully with respect to those customer conversations in, let's say, the past six months or so.
Ryan McMonagle
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I think it's two things. It's a great question, and I think it's why we're as optimistic as we are and obviously why we made the investment that we did. But there's an increase in both new projects. So we're seeing new projects that are going into construction, which I think a lot of that is some of the regulatory changes we're starting to see the benefits of, and that will continue to accelerate. And then we're seeing some of the maintenance work on those lines also happening, too. So I think it's a combination of both. I think as we listen to our customers, they're saying the same thing, that their backlogs are increasing, that their expectations for 2027 and 2028 are increasing as well. And then when we track the data ourselves from the publicly available sources, that's what you're seeing, right? As the forecasts continue to increase every time we do a data poll. And so I think it's why we're as optimistic as we are, that this will continue for the foreseeable future.
Nam Kaplan
Analyst, Deutsche Bank (calling for Nicole DeBlase)
Very helpful. And then kind of looking at 4Q, so you do the bridge for, you know, full year guidance applies, 560 to 580 revenue. They're like 120 or so, 130 to the 135 adjusted EBITDA on 4Q. So just trying to maybe get a better understanding of like the key assumptions behind, you know, the range, particularly around maybe like stem delivery timing and the SER utilization.
Chris Eperjesy
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, this is Chris. You know, that is one of the challenges we always have in Q4 is, you know, what's going to ship in the fourth quarter on the STEM side, because, you know, things can pull forward from January, things can push out to Q1. And then on the SER side, you know, we have pretty good visibility as Ryan walked through on the rental side, which a little bit more challenging is the rental asset sales where, you know, either the customer has a right to buy a unit or comes to us and wants to buy a unit. and that's why we've left a little bit of a range in our guidance is because those variables are difficult to predict. Sitting here today, I think our commentary on the rental side is we're seeing good utilization, good OECN rent. It's now over a billion five Q3. I think on average it was a billion 394, billion 395. So we've continued to see growth. But overall, I think we feel very good overall about the business, certainly on the rental side. And that's why, you know, we've kept a narrower range, but still a reasonable range to kind of take into account some of those variables that could either pull in or push out, you know, certainly on the STEM side.
Nam Kaplan
Analyst, Deutsche Bank (calling for Nicole DeBlase)
Okay, great. That is helpful. I will pass it on. Thanks.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Justin Huck with Baird. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Justin Hauke
Analyst, Baird
Oh, great. Yeah, I guess I just wanted to ask, one, the free cash flow as we look into next year. I mean, obviously, I think it makes sense, the pull forward on the CapEx and the returns he outlined. I mean, that's obvious. But you did reiterate the three times levered by the end of 27, and I guess, you know, I don't know what double-digit EBITDA growth means necessarily, but it would imply that there still is, I think, a pretty meaningful free cash flow to kind of drive that. And so I guess the question is, I think part of the opportunity for you guys has been that you have a lot of excess fleet that you can deploy. And I just am curious about your thinking for next year, if you continue to see this strong growth. You know, what keeps the CapEx from, you know, kind of having to continue to be a factor there to support that? Thanks.
Ryan McMonagle
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, it's a great question. I'll start. I'll let Chris chime in. But Justin, I think you got three things that we like to talk about there. One, you're going to have an increase in the cash flow that that generates. So I think you'll see the benefit of that heading into 2027. We'll continue to work on networking capital here. We talked about, Chris mentioned some of the strategic investments we've made to get in front on chassis heading into 2027. So I think some of that we should benefit from heading into 2027. And then you're right. As the fleet grows, as we think about CapEx into next year, I think there's just the opportunity to continue to use the fleet to generate cash as well. So as Chris mentioned, it'll be a mix of even a growth. We've said double digit. We'll give more firm guidance on where in double digit, obviously, that growth will come from. And then you're right. That implies some amount of free cash flow. which would be you know more consistent with what we originally said for 26 obviously with some of the growth that we're seeing from from you and I think you get kind of right there.
Justin Hauke
Analyst, Baird
Okay that's helpful that's all from me for right now thank you.
Ryan McMonagle
Chief Executive Officer
Great thanks Justin.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to CEO Ryan McMonagle for closing remarks.
Ryan McMonagle
Chief Executive Officer
Thanks everyone for your time today and your interest in Custom Truck. We appreciate the continued engagement and look forward to updating you next quarter. In the meantime, please don't hesitate to reach out with any questions. Thank you again and have a great day.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.