DPC DPC Holdings PLC

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DPC Holdings PLC Q3 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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Alexandra
Conference Operator
Hello everyone, thank you for joining us and welcome to the DPC Holdings Report's third quarter 2026 results. After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star 1 again. If you have logged in via the webcast, please submit your questions using the Q&A button. I will now hand the conference over to Lucy Sharma, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Lucy Sharma
Head of Investor Relations, DPC Holdings
Good morning and welcome to DPC Holdings third quarter 2026 results conference call. I'm Lucy Sharma, Responsible for Investor Relations. I'm joined by Mike Quinn, Chief Executive Officer and David Egan, Chief Financial Officer. Mike and David will run through a presentation outlining our results, strategic updates and outlook. We will then open the call for questions. Before I hand over, I'd like to note that today's discussion will include forward-looking statements regarding our future performance, plans and expectations. Information about factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements can be found in today's presentation, our earnings release and our SEC filings. During the presentation, we refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures with reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures available in the earnings release issued today, as well as in the appendix to the presentation. unless otherwise indicated, all performance comparisons are on a year-over-year basis and all numbers will be in US dollars. With that, I'll hand the call over to Mike and slide four.
Mike Quinn
Chief Executive Officer, DPC Holdings
Great. Great. Thanks, Lucy. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to DPC Holdings' third quarter 2026 earnings call. We have a lot to cover today. We've had a very strong quarter, both financially beating consensus expectations and strategically. Revenue grew 39% year-on-year to a record 308 million, with engine products gone 43%. Adjusted EBITDA increased 56% to a record 58 million, with the margin increasing 200 basis points to 18.9%. Engine products adjusted EBITDA grew 70%, with the margin increasing 380 basis points to 23.8%. Alongside these strong results, we've made significant strategic progress during the quarter. We acquired CCAS 50% stake in Montana Precision Products, MPP, through an established joint venture with Unison, a GE aerospace company. We signed our fifth strategic customer partnership, our largest to date. This is a minimum 10-year contract expecting to generate over $100 million of annual revenue when fully ramped with the customer providing funding support for over 80% of the capital cost. We refinanced our debt facilities with a new $325 million revolving credit facility, replacing this existing term loan and ABL, and have also exited our e-booster business, which was held for sale. Reflecting the strength of the business and the visibility we have, we are upgrading our full year 2026 guidance and introducing 2027 guidance. In summary, it has been a busy and successful quarter, which demonstrates clearly that we are delivering against our plan to generate significant value. So turning to slide five. First, I'd like to detail the Doncaster's casting portfolio, where we play on our growth opportunities. Within the aerospace end market, we manufacture largely nickel-based super alloy structural castings, accounting for over 80% of our aero casting revenue. These include products such as the turbine center frame shown in picture one. Aero Airfoils account for less than 10% of our aero casting revenue currently. However, our first strategic customer partnership, which includes significant customer-funded capital expenditure, is to develop and supply aero blades and vanes from 2027. We already do this, including single crystal technology, but not in volume. And once this expanded production capacity is up and running, this could lead to opportunities with other players within a consolidating market. Our Turbo Wheels business, which currently serves the transportation end market, makes small, high-volume castings. These are similar to castings required for UAVs and drones. We believe we can utilize our Turbo Wheel capability and capacity for UAVs, and I'm delighted to report that we've won our first supply contract within this market. It is relatively small financially at this stage, but is significant in terms of our ability to win this type of business. Moving to our IGT offering, we make turbine airfoils mainly for heavy duty gas turbines, i.e. those that are producing over 100 megawatts of power. The turbines have extremely high blade complexity and are used for utility scale generation. They are differentiated from small to medium industrial gas turbines where we are seeing new entrants moving into the market, such as those players looking to internalize their own supply. The smaller turbines and aeroderivative variations have a faster installation setup and so many are being installed in tandem to power data centres until larger, more efficient heavy-duty frame turbines can be supplied. The benefits of heavy frame versus smaller turbines are better economies of scale, higher fuel efficiencies, increasingly important to generate significant dollar savings, provide stronger grid support and have lower maintenance complexity. So I've said Doncaster specialises in heavy-duty frame gas turbines accounting for approximately 85% of our IDT casting revenue. This is where we have significant demand, and so we're planning to double our heavy frame capacity, given our contracted LTAs and strategic customer partnerships. I'd like to clarify that, especially on the IETT side, our strategic customer partnerships all have customer funding and volume commitments, including a take-up pay clause, meaning our capacity growth and earnings opportunity is supported by large OEMs. and our capacity expansion and estimates of demand led based on base power generation and associated order books. Now I'd like to talk about our end markets of aerospace and IGT. They both continue to benefit from strong structural growth drivers, significant supply backlogs, constrained capacity and high barriers to entry. Turning to slide six. In aerospace, the structural drivers we have discussed previously remain firmly in place. Rising air travel, record aircraft backlogs, aging fleets, and long-term engine platforms. All of this is driving demand for newer, more fuel-efficient aircraft. Research forecasts continue to point to significant growth of nearly double-digit commercial aircraft deliveries through the end of the decade. The chart on the top right of the slide shows the requirements for new engines. Over 84,000 new engines are required between now and 2045, highlighting the visible backlog. Moving to slide seven. In IGT, we based our growth assumptions upon record demand and backlog we are seeing from our customers due to increasing electricity demand and growing energy needs, driven by energy transition from coal and oil to gas, security of supply, climate change and reliability and renewables integration and also from growing replacement parts demand. OEM customer order books are sold out now to 2031-2032. Most importantly with over two terawatts of industrial gas turbines installed globally and growing which require maintenance and servicing and so driving increasing demand for replacement parts. Heavy frame turbines where we play has seen meaningful growth since 2015-2016 and is now entering into the early stages of the blades and vanes replacement cycle with the install base growing from 140 gigawatts to 350 to 400 gigawatts by 2035. These turbines have long asset life cycles which deliver recurring service demand. We expect this to underpin significant OE and replacement parts volume growth over the coming years. The right-hand side of the slide highlights the significant capacity growth quoted by some major OEMs. On our IPO Roadshow, we said our base case long-term revenue growth in IGT, excluding AI-related growth, was based on 79% CAGA to 2035 based on independent research. And I'm pleased to say it has come in at the high end of those estimates. Moving to slide eight. Against that demand backdrop, the industry supply environment continues to remain constrained. Demand is coming from multiple end markets, commercial aerospace, defense, electrification, space, data centers, and AI-related power demand and UAV applications. There are a limited number of independent scale casting suppliers which have the technical capability, customer qualifications, and capital intensive assets required to serve this huge demand. Doncaster's remains well positioned within a consolidating market. We are a trusted independent scale supplier. We are providing OEMs with committed capacity through our long-term strategic customer partnerships. We are expanding our aero airfoils capacity and following the IPO and refinancing, our balance sheet gives us the opportunity to invest in disciplined bolt-on acquisition opportunities to increase capacity further. These markets have significant barriers to entry. Technical expertise, metallurgy, customer qualifications and large-scale capital equipment cannot be replicated quickly. We believe that makes scarce qualified capacity increasingly valuable and places Doncaster's in a strong competitive position. Moving to slide nine, let's explain our new JV. We have acquired CCAS 50% stake in Montana Precision Products, an established joint venture with Unison, which is a GE aerospace company that designs and manufactures specialized engine components and systems for aerospace. MPP manufactures small structural castings and tubes and duct assemblies for aerospace applications, with GE Aerospace accounting for the majority of MPP's revenue. Given the ongoing changes within the casting industry, we are excited about building a partnership with Unison and strengthening both our aerospace proposition and opportunities and our commercial relationship with GE Aerospace. We currently make large structural castings for GE, accounting for less than 5% of Doncaster's group revenue. We plan to use our specialist technical expertise and advanced founder capabilities to support MPP's capacity growth and product expansion through contracted LTAs and a committed investment plan. We also see the potential opportunity to supply MPP's alloy from Doncaster's capacity. We acquired MPP for cash on October 30th with a transaction anticipated to be earnings accreted within the first year. This acquisition is in line with Doncaster's inorganic growth strategy. We're super excited about the opportunity to work in partnership with Unison in growing MPP further and the value creation opportunities. Moving to slide 10, our fifth strategic customer partnership is another major milestone. It is our largest to date. We have signed with a major IGT OEM, a minimum tenure contract with extension provisions to manufacture some of the largest and most complex DS single crystal IGT blade and vein castings in the world. To support the contract, we expect to invest more than $200 million in additional capacity. Crucially, the customers plan to contribute funding that covers approximately 80% of that $200 million plus investment. By 2032, the partnership is expected to generate more than $100 million of incremental annual margin accretive revenue. There are a few points worth emphasizing. The duration of the agreement gives a significant long-term visibility. We are securing margin accretive revenue and generating strong returns on our capital investment. and most importantly, the level of customer funding support demonstrates the strategic importance for the OEMs to secure qualified capacity within the supply constraint casting market. Moving on to slide 11, this details our five strategic customer partnerships signed to date. Each contract is bespoke in nature and due to this takes time to negotiate. However, we thought it would be helpful to provide some details showing the length of the partnerships through multi-year LTAs, What we are supplying, for example, we are moving into volume production of aero airfoils in the first partnership, but making more of the same parts we already make with the others. We have provided the associated capital investment and how some are supported by customer funding. And the protections we have put in place to ensure that we can reuse the invested capacity if needs be, although we would expect OEMs to prioritise utilising capacity they have invested in rather than going elsewhere. Although the individual structures differ, the benefits to Doncaster's are consistent. Securing earnings visibility through contracted long-term margin accrued revenue, driving market share growth, and providing customer support for the capital required to increase capacity. And further deepening our technical and commercial relationships with major OEMs. Across the five strategic customer partnerships, we now expect more than $300 million of annual incremental revenue by 2031. and of that investment associated with our partnerships, approximately two thirds is supported by OEM investment, delivering an enhanced return on invested capital. This shows the voting confidence the OEMs have in Doncaster's. We see our pipeline of strategic customer partnerships continue to strengthen and grow as the market becomes increasingly constrained. I'll now hand over to David to take you through the third quarter financial performance.
David Egan
Chief Financial Officer, DPC Holdings
Thank you, Mike, and good morning, everyone. Moving to slide 12. Quarter three was a record quarter for Doncaster's with revenue and adjusted EBITDA ahead of our expectations. Revenue grew 39% year on year to 308 million with strong growth in our end markets of aerospace and IGT. The third quarter revenue growth included approximately six percentage points of growth from metal cost inflation pass through year on year. The adjusted EBITDA grew 56%, with the margin improving by 200 basis points to 18.9%. Metal cost inflation pass-through, which does not affect our EBITDA dollars, led to a 90 basis point dilution of the margin in the quarter. Engine products in both Europe and North America grew revenue by 43% and EBITDA by 70%. a 380 basis point improvement in margin to 23.8%. And this was due to higher volumes and value-based pricing. We delivered 111 million of adjusted free cash flow through the quarter through a combination of higher adjusted EBITDA and customer contributions, ending the period with an adjusted net cash position of 192 million. On slide 13, we show strong revenue growth of 39% across our end markets. In the third quarter, we have delivered revenue growth through a combination of higher volumes, value-based pricing, and metal cost inflation pass-through. Specifically, aerospace grew by 45% and IGT by 43% for the reasons just mentioned. Transportation grew by 21%, benefiting from new automotive contracts won in prior years, ramping up in 2026. Moving on to our segments. Slide 14 reports our engine products business in Europe. Gross segment revenue grew 47%, driven by strong growth in the IGT end market, which accounts for nearly 80% of the segment's revenue, including OEM build rate, metal cost inflation pass-through, and value-based pricing. Segment-adjusted EBITDA increased by 46%. The margin decreased by 20 basis points to 23.9% with operating leverage and value-based pricing benefits offset by dilution from the pass-through of metal cost inflation. We are investing in expanding our capacity, especially within our German and UK sites to support increased customer growth and the IGT strategic customer partnerships. Onto slide 15 and engine products North America. Gross segment revenue grew by 37% to 97 million. Third-party growth, which excludes last year's super alloy sales sold internally to turbo wheels, increased 45%. This reflects strong growth in the aerospace end market, which accounts for 80% of segment revenue. and increased output following capacity investments. The EBITDA margin grew 950 basis points to 23.5%, reflecting the operating leverage impact of the revenue increase and value-based pricing, but also assisted by weaker Q3 comps from 2025. We are continuing to invest in capacity to support increased customer demand and the delivery of the two aerospace strategic customer partnerships, including deposits paid for equipment for our Greenfield Super Alloy Facility in Alabama. On slide 16, our turbo wheel segment, which accounted for 17% of revenue and 4% of EBITDA during the third quarter. The segment was negatively affected from EvoStud, which was sold on October 23, 2026. Excluding EvoStud, revenue grew 20% due to the ramping up of new automotive contracts and the growth in Asia and Americas, offsetting a flat market in Europe. Segment-adjusted EBITDA, excluding EvoStud, grew 12% and delivered a margin of 10.2% in the quarter. In the last five years, turning to slide 17 and capital expenditure. In the last five years to the end of 2025, we have invested over 170 million in the business, adding both capacity and equipment upgrades. Looking forward, we plan to continue to add capacity in both aerospace and ITT, including a Greenfield Super Alloy Facility in Alabama. These investments are supported by our strategic customer partnerships, including capital contributions. The chart on the slide shows our capital expenditure for 2026 and 2027, based on our agreed plans of today, aligned to the five strategic customer partnerships signed and the capital requirements of our recently acquired joint venture of MPP. The grey blocks at the bottom show our normalised maintenance and growth capex, which is broadly 2% of revenue relating to maintenance and approximately 3-5% of revenue on growth expenditure in the ordinary course. Then we have split out capex related to each of the strategic customer partnerships, including adding in our fifth partnership announced today. which as Mike said, involves over 200 million of total capex, more than we have spent during 2020 through to 2025. The majority of our strategic customer partnerships have customer funding or asset investment, supporting our capacity expansion and heightened capital expenditure. The customer funding results in enhanced return on invested capital. We believe that the investment by the OEMs in our capacity provides longer term security and earnings opportunities and continues to demonstrate their confidence in Doncaster's. While the capital investment has an impact on our free cash flow in the near term, this is expected to drive future cash generation, growth and value creation over the longer term. Moving on to slide 18 and our outlook. We have raised our full year 2026 guidance due to strong business performance in quarter three. We now expect full year 2026 to deliver revenue between 1.115 billion and 1.13 billion. We expect EBITDA in the range of 204 million to 207 million. giving an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 18%, including dilution from the higher metal cost inflation pass-through we've seen in the second and third quarters. We've also introduced full year 2027 guidance, which includes a 100% contribution from MPP given our accounting controlling interest, capital expenditure relating to our fifth strategic partnership, and the exclusion of EvoStud following its divestment. For the full year of 2027, we are guiding to revenue between 1.23 billion and 1.33 billion with a midpoint of 1.28 billion. Adjusted EBITDA in the range of 240 million and 260 million with a midpoint of 250 million. And at that midpoint, that is generating growth of 22%. and giving an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 19.5%, assuming no change in metal cost pass-through. We've provided some key assumptions on the bottom of the slide to help with financial modeling. And with that, I'll now hand it back to Mike.
Mike Quinn
Chief Executive Officer, DPC Holdings
Great. Thanks, David. Moving to slide 19, I'd like to talk about the medium term and our drivers of revenue growth and margin expansion. Starting on the left-hand side of the slide, and as David just outlined, you can see our upgraded 2026 revenue. From that, we have a significant number of visible growth drivers. Market growth from two strong long-term structural growth markets of aerospace and IGT. Approximately 70% of our revenue is under contracted long-term agreements, which typically span five years or longer, the majority of which have been renegotiated within the past two years. Our strategic customer partnerships with Five to Date, which are contracted multi-year long-term agreements, anticipate to deliver over $300 million of annualized revenue as they ramp up to 2031. And in organic opportunities, given our net cash position with many smaller bolt-on targets in our sites, we have already started deploying our capital with the acquisition of a 50% stake in MPP. On margins, we continue to see a clear pathway from the approximately 18% adjusted EBITDA margin we're going to delivering this year. We have three main margin drivers of roughly equal sized opportunities. Higher operating leverage from higher volumes, value based pricing, including the benefit of our margin accrued of strategic customer partnerships and operational efficiencies as we improve our margin drop through. So when we look forward, we see a business with increasing visibility in our revenue growth and multiple identifiable drivers of continued margin expansion. That gives us considerable confidence in the medium term opportunity ahead and in our ability to deliver against the value creation plan. Moving on to our final slide, slide 20, and our long-term value creation model. The model is not new, but has been driving the business since 2020. As you'll have seen during Q3, we delivered across all four areas of the model through organic growth with strong growth outperforming our 2N markets, the addition of a fifth customer partnership, and the strengthening of a key customer relationship with our new joint venture partner, GE. Our order book, which relates to contracted purchase orders only, is approximately one billion. Given approximately 70% of revenues covered by LTAs of five years duration, this provides greater long-term visibility. On margin expansion, we added 200 basis points of EBITDA margin in the quarter. On cash, we continued to improve our cash generation, supplemented by customer funding and a refinance balance sheet. And on investment, we divested of our non-core EVOS to business and acquired a 50% stake in a business supplying a key OEM within the aerospace end market, consistent with our capital allocation priorities and focused both on opportunities. In summary, this has been an exciting quarter for Doncaster's with strong financial performance and significant strategic progress. Our visible growth has never been stronger or clearer and we're excited about our strengthened positioning within a changing industry and the opportunities it presents for Doncaster to continue capturing profitable market share and generate significant long-term value creation. Before I finish, I would like to take the opportunity to thank the employees of our company and the new ones who have just joined an MPP. They show up every day and do a brilliant job for our customers and our company. And with that, I'd like to thank you for your interest in Doncaster's and hand the call back over to the operator for Q&A.
Alexandra
Conference Operator
We will now begin the question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question press star one again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. If you have logged in via the webcast, please submit your questions using the Q&A button. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Sheila Kayaglu from Jefferies. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Sheila Kayaglu
Analyst, Jefferies
Thank you so much and good morning guys and way to crush it the first year out of the gate from your IPO. Lots to digest with your prepared remarks, but maybe I'll just start off with the 27 guidance, which is coming well ahead of our expectations. 13% growth at the midpoint, 20% plus EBITDA. Can you just walk through some of the underlying assumptions that put that forecast forward, whether it's underlying markets, new capacity, pricing, and the partnerships that are weaving into that growth?
Mike Quinn
Chief Executive Officer, DPC Holdings
Thank you.
David Egan
Chief Financial Officer, DPC Holdings
Sure. Good morning, Sheila. So with regards to guidance for 27, with regards to revenue, no material assumption change with regards to metal cost. So more of this in terms of the metal cost assumptions year on year. We are excluding EvoStud in 27. We've got the MPP, which is also the new acquisition, which we will be then incorporating as 100%. Even though it's a joint venture, we do have controlling interest, so we will be consolidating MPP. And then from a volume and price perspective, we see continuation more pronounced in volume, although we are sort of beginning to reach the capacity, which is also then linked back to the capacity partnerships that we are introducing, but they start to come online at the back end of 2027. Overall for guidance for 27, it's driven by more pronounced volume, some pricing, and then the acquisition of MPP with EvoStud coming out.
Sheila Kayaglu
Analyst, Jefferies
Okay. And if I could perhaps follow up on MPP, can you tell us just how the size of it, the revenue contribution and what the business adds? Is there an opportunity to extend beyond GE programs or is this just Getting you guys more embedded with GE. Thank you.
David Egan
Chief Financial Officer, DPC Holdings
So I'll let Mike talk about the strategic side of the acquisition, and then I'm happy to cover the numbers.
Mike Quinn
Chief Executive Officer, DPC Holdings
Yeah, good morning, Sheila. You know, obviously, we're very excited by this acquisition. It's bang in line with our Our M&A strategy, it's a digestible bolt-on for us. It's castings, it leans into our core capabilities. Obviously, it's partnering with one of our aerospace customers. It's got significant growth opportunities as in line with the bill rate increases. We don't supply the super alloy there today, but obviously that's a synergy play for us. Now that we were involved in the business, it's earnings accretive. You know, it ticks every single box we want in our M&A strategy. So we've been working on it for a while. We got the clearance and we closed at the end of October. So very excited.
David Egan
Chief Financial Officer, DPC Holdings
In terms of the numbers, we paid $73 million for our 50%. We've also, off the back of that, acquired the freehold of the building. It's a low double digit EV to EBITDA multiple. And in terms of the contribution, it's a very low double digit millions of EBITDA at 100%.
Sheila Kayaglu
Analyst, Jefferies
Really appreciate it. Thank you guys.
Alexandra
Conference Operator
Congrats.
David Egan
Chief Financial Officer, DPC Holdings
Thank you.
Alexandra
Conference Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Christine Lewag with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Christine Lewag
Analyst, Morgan Stanley
Hey, good morning, everyone. And congrats on a very strong quarter plus these announcements that you've made. But maybe pivoting to the balance sheet, you know, Mike, David, you paid cash for MPP and the initiatives announced today with the strategic partnership expansion imply higher 2027 CapEx than what you guys had previously provided. Now, how do we think about the liquidity buffer that you want to maintain through this investment cycle, especially when we look at 2027 and it's, you know, the midpoint of free cash flows around breakeven? How do we think about the timing of customer funding? You know, when you look at that spend, is there a timing that you're assuming for when the customer investments will come through? Will that flow through working capital? And then ultimately, what leverage are you comfortable operating within and how much flexibility does that leave for additional acquisitions as you look out here?
David Egan
Chief Financial Officer, DPC Holdings
Sure. Thanks, Christine. So in terms of our overall liquidity, Our cash position at the end of Q3 was net cash of 192. Just bear in mind that that was pre the payment of the acquisition of MPP. So that is a Q4 payment that took place at the end of October of this year.
Mike Quinn
Chief Executive Officer, DPC Holdings
David John Egan, Jason Mays, Joe Lane,
David Egan
Chief Financial Officer, DPC Holdings
In terms of overall leverage, we haven't set a leverage target as a group, but certainly we have the ability within our covenants to have leverage just above three times. We wouldn't look to be pushing it anywhere near that sort of number. So somewhere around the one to up to two is probably where we would feel most comfortable in terms of the overall leverage of the group. In terms of the customer funding contributions, they are very much driven based on milestones through the build process. So there was customer funding that took place in Q3. There's no additional customer funding in Q4, but there will be some funding during the course of 2027 and then 28 and then 29.
Christine Lewag
Analyst, Morgan Stanley
Great, great. Super helpful. And as a follow-up, I'm not sure if I just missed it, but how much was the purchase price for the 50% of MPP that's going to come out in 4Q? And also just to confirm, for the free cash flow guidance that you gave in 2027, could there be contra accounts from customers to offset some of your cash outflows?
David Egan
Chief Financial Officer, DPC Holdings
Sure. So the cost of MPP was $73 million. So that's a payment made in Q4. And then in addition, we've also made a contribution towards the freehold. The cost of the freehold was $15 million for 100%. So we've paid half of that. And then in terms of the free cash flow guidance, we provided free cash flow guidance, including customer funding from the OEMs and also including the gross or the total capital expenditure costs through 2027. So we are guiding to at the midpoint, you know, free cash flow at zero. And that's incorporating all of the funding, all of the capex through 27. Great.
Christine Lewag
Analyst, Morgan Stanley
Thank you.
Alexandra
Conference Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Maggie Schooley with Rothschild and Co. Redburn. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Maggie Schooley
Analyst, Rothschild & Co Redburn
Good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking the question. I just had one. Earlier in the presentation, you touched on this 7% to 9% CAGR in IGT up to 2030, which clearly is very supportive of your long-term demand, but IGT has historically been Thank you for having me.
Mike Quinn
Chief Executive Officer, DPC Holdings
David John Egan, Jason Mays, You know, that's somewhere between sort of 320 and 350 units at the moment, and that can grow to 2035 to sort of somewhere between 750 and 800 units. And it's interesting to listen to some of the earnings calls of our main customers, right? They're pretty much aligned on saying that every gigawatt of installed capacity generates about half a billion dollars of service revenue over the life cycle of the asset, which is somewhere between 20 and 25 years. David John Egan, Jason Mays, When you go out to the cooler section stage three, maybe three or four, you know, two to three times, sorry, and stage four twice. So that's a very long term recurring revenue stream once these units get installed. And of course, that's great for Doncaster's because we don't differentiate between an OEM and an aftermarket or a replacement spare part that goes into these turbines. So just because we ship one set when we ship the turbine, We know we're getting these repeat orders for many, many years to come. And because the fleet is so new, we're just getting in just at the very start of those replacement cycles. So we expect the replacement parts demand from sort of 2030 to 2035 and onwards to be very, very significant and growing far, far above our OE shipments.
Maggie Schooley
Analyst, Rothschild & Co Redburn
Excellent. Thank you so much for that. Good results.
Alexandra
Conference Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Ken Herbert with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Steve Strackhouse
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets
Hey, good morning, guys. This is Steve Strackhouse on for Ken Herbert. I was hoping you might be able to touch on the pipeline for incremental customer agreements and kind of what that looks like. And then should we expect incremental ones who also have the majority of the CapEx funded by the customer? Or are you potentially trading off any pricing for the customer-funded CapEx?
Mike Quinn
Chief Executive Officer, DPC Holdings
I'll take the easy one first. Absolutely not trading price for this capacity, right? So that's an easy one. So just on what's ahead of us. So we've done five of them. If you recall from our investor roadshow, we had a gate process, sort of one going through the construction stage and then into ramp. and as one went into ramp we wanted to bring another one in the front end and we've done that and look we've been very fortunate with the scale of the one what we've just done. We also outlined you know because these are very large projects they take many months to negotiate you know somewhere between six and twelve months we need a constant pipeline of these and what I can say is five done pipeline is We've added more than the one we've completed into the pipeline. David John Egan, Jason Mays, Depends on the contract. Every single one of them has a different characteristic. You can see in the slides in the deck what we've actually structured. So if it makes sense to take in customer funding, we will absolutely do that. If it's a better option for us to fund it ourselves, we will absolutely do that. We don't have a hard and fast criteria for how we construct these projects.
Steve Strackhouse
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets
Sounds good. And then maybe if I could squeeze in one more, I wanted to talk on your aerospace airfoil production and how that's ramping. I guess, to what extent do you see GE's pending acquisition of CPP as an opportunity in terms of kind of gaining work from CPP's non-GE work today?
Mike Quinn
Chief Executive Officer, DPC Holdings
So, look, I was in the facility about three weeks ago. We remain fully on track. It's very impressive, the build-out that's happening in a Roxwood, Alabama facility. We remain on track to schedule, which we've talked about again today. We start to ship the first parts in sort of the third quarter and ramp from there through 28 and into 29. I would say that there are a significant amount of RFQ activity from the OEMs. We have a very executable opportunity list. In terms of whether we can win stuff from CPP because of the acquisition of GE, David John Egan, Jason Mays, Steve, we had a very long list of airfoil opportunities across multiple engine OEMs, and that's the list we're working off, right? We have to focus on what's available to us today. I can tell you that the opportunity that's there would fill far beyond what our capacity is in Oxford, and that's an opportunity for future growth.
Steve Strackhouse
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets
I really appreciate the call. Thanks, guys.
Alexandra
Conference Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Anthony Valentini with Barclays. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Ryan Capozzi
Analyst, Barclays
Hey, good morning. This is Ryan Capozzi on for Anthony. Thanks for taking my question. And I just had one. So it's exciting that you announced your first deal in the drone market. What can you tell us about the end product you're supplying into and whether there is potential to take more share with the customer over time? and ultimately how big do you think the drone market can be for you?
Mike Quinn
Chief Executive Officer, DPC Holdings
Good morning, Ryan. Thank you for the question. So look, as I mentioned on the last earnings call, this is an area that I've been reading into over the last sort of six months or so. I got a lot of insight to it at the Farnborough Airshow. Lots and lots of folks there in the sector. We're very excited by this sector, Raj. It's from a production manufacturing capability. It's right in our sweet spot in our transportation division. The products are very, very similar. We've also got the added benefit for those customers of being able to supply the super alloy, right? And that's very important when you're supplying defence parts. So, you know, we've got our factory in Sheffield in the UK for European manufacturers and we've got our factory in Long Beach. Thank you for joining us. Thank you very much. You know, and I had thought this, you know, the more I read into this, Ryan, the more I thought this sector was sort of, you know, well into the ramp phase. And in fact, when you look at it, it's not. It's still very early doors in this sector. There's lots of volume to come on stream. You know, just on that transportation business, we make... 14 million of these wheels that we make for the turbochargers every year. So we're very used to high volume. And the other thing I'll say about the UAV sector is the volumes are highly priced. So they don't really suit our traditional casting plants. For example, the structural casting plants. So I think we're very well positioned. I had said that we would give an update really after the end of the year to whether we're going to be successful or not. That first order we booked was sort of ahead of schedule. I'm very excited about that. And I'd be very hopeful that we're going to close more orders this side of the end of the year. And at the next earnings call, I'll be able to give you an update on sort of the scale of the opportunity.
Ryan Capozzi
Analyst, Barclays
Perfect. Thanks for the call. Thanks, Ryan.
Alexandra
Conference Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Jitin Sanghai with Core Partners. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Jitin Sanghai
Analyst, Core Partners
Hey, Mike, David, thanks and congrats on a good quarter. Two questions here. Is it possible just to understand the aftermarket content a bit more on IGT? I think you mentioned H-frame ramping. So I'm just trying to figure out what happens in a world where data center production slows and and you have less production, like how does your 2030 number change? And then separately on the aerospace side, how is the OEM aftermarket content different on the aerospace side of your business?
Mike Quinn
Chief Executive Officer, DPC Holdings
Thank you. Yes. So, you know, just on the, let's start with the data center AI thing first, Jiten, Raj. Firstly, good morning. We've been very clear on this and consistent on this the whole way through our IPO roadshow cycle. Our growth assumptions, the 7% to 9% CAGR that I spoke about, excludes data center AI growth. It was never in our base case scenario. And it's interesting listening to the CEOs of the big IGT OEMs over the last number of weeks. In fact, the CEO of Siemens came out yesterday at their results and said that in their backlog, 10% or less of their backlog is associated with data centers. So yes, it's an element of it, for sure, and an important element of it. But it's not the main driver of the growth that we're seeing in the IGT sector today, right? It's a broad number of factors. I think we touched on some of them during the call in terms of electrification, industrial growth. We've got the climate change, HVAC, you've got the renewables integration, you've got baseload supply. So they're important data points, I think. So, you know, and the second point then, you know, I think Maggie asked the question in relation to the replacement spares, Rush. The H-Class fleet is pretty new. You know, it's the meaningful turn in sort of install base started in 2015, 2016, obviously been growing every year. And we've got significant growth that's taken place from now until 2030, Rush. You talked about our 2030 numbers. Yeah. We feel very confident in those, right? I mean, if you look at the likes of the IDT OEMs, they're booked out now to 2031, 2032. Thank you for joining us today. and then because of the age of the fleet the fact that it's it's just starting to enter that replacement cycle to 10 we'll see orders for the long term out into the 2030s you know well past 2035 for these replacement spares that I spoke about earlier on these replacement parts so from an IGT point of view we're very comfortable with the outlook you know both to 2030 and indeed beyond and I suppose the biggest validation you know that's my view the biggest validation is these Strategic Customer Partnerships that we're securing and one we announced today. I mean, the scale of that and the confidence that that OEM has in the long-term order profile or demand profile in IGT really validates what I'm saying in terms of that long-term demand. So hopefully that answers your first question. On the second question, in terms of our aerospace aftermarket, We primarily operate today in structural castings. They tend to go into the aircraft engine and not really get replaced during the life of the engine. Obviously, we're getting into aero airfoils at scale. So over time, you'll see an increase in our aftermarket content from the airfoils, blades and vanes. And that's part of that sector, right? But again... We talked in one of the slides about the structural demand drivers in aerospace. We're going to have a lot of new engines coming into the sector over the next, out to 2044, 2045. I think it's around 84,000 engines. But you've also got a very significant growing fleet, right? So lots of opportunities for aftermarket. That is a growth area for us because we're not in that today. But as we ramp up, as I said, on airfoils, we'll see our aftermarket content increase.
Jitin Sanghai
Analyst, Core Partners
That makes sense. Thank you, Mike. Appreciate it.
Alexandra
Conference Operator
There are no further questions on the audio Q&A. I will now turn it back to the management team to address any webcast questions.
Lucy Sharma
Head of Investor Relations, DPC Holdings
Thank you very much, Alexandra. So we've got some coming in. First one is another one on GE CPP acquisition or potential acquisition. Does it change the competitive landscape for Doncaster's in terms of our casting pricing power, our share and our other factors and have competitors to GE sort additional business from Doncaster's because of the pending acquisition?
Mike Quinn
Chief Executive Officer, DPC Holdings
Yeah, thanks, Lucy. Just on CPP for a minute. You know, we mentioned earlier on in the call that, you know, GE is around 5% of our annual revenue at the moment. And obviously that will grow now with the Partnership with MPP and some of the other pipeline opportunities we're working on with GE. When I look at CPP, my view of that business is it's a lot different than we are. It makes airfoils at volume today. It's been doing that for a period of time, which we don't do. It also has titanium structural castings, again, which we don't do. Sandcastings Sandcastings Sandcastings and then on the other 30%, Doncaster's makes very large structural castings. Our main competition is really PCC. We very rarely bump up against CPP and competitive processes. So we're seeing the fact that GE has bought CPP with their current product profile as having no impact on Doncaster's. We expect GE to be a long-term customer for Doncaster's. We're good at what we do. We deliver on time. And that, you know, they were very happy that we took the 50% of MPP, very supportive of that transaction. So, you know, so that's one thing. In terms of opportunities to pick up work based from CPP, based on their acquisition by GE, we have our own pipeline already ready. And, you know, we have massive opportunity long before the CPP GE thing happened. We've got more than enough on our table and in our opportunity pipeline to deliver the growth that we've shown you guys going out in the medium to long term. So if we end up getting work from CPP over time, that's just the way the market operates. And we'll review those opportunities if and when they happen. And if they don't, it's going to have no bearing whatsoever on our long term growth forecast.
Lucy Sharma
Head of Investor Relations, DPC Holdings
Thank you. I've got a question on the Strategic Customer Partnerships asking, what is the logic of entering into 10-year contracts? How fixed is the pricing over that term? And what protections does Doncaster's have against cost escalations or even if something like another COVID happened?
Mike Quinn
Chief Executive Officer, DPC Holdings
Well, again, let me address the easy one. I'm really hoping COVID doesn't happen because if it does, it's not, I want it to be aerospace and IGT. Look, the easy ones to knock off first. So the protections, you know, for those of you that have been with us on the journey since 2020, our commercial contracts were pretty poor back then. We have really strengthened our contracts, right? So all of our contracts have inflation escalators and they cover things like transportation costs, labour costs, energy costs, etc., etc., So I think we're in pretty good shape on that. And those inflation adjusters happen on an annual basis, right? So I think we're in pretty decent shape on the protection side. Why the length of the contracts? Well, look, we're in this to generate long-term visibility of our growth. These contracts, 10, 15 years, the strategic partnership number one, David John Egan, Jason Mays, Joe Lane, Michael Joseph Quinn, Indy Rattu, Claire Davies, Joe Lane, Michael Joseph Quinn, In terms of the pricing mechanisms, some of the longer contracts have five-year pricing resets. We'll get an opportunity to reset back to market pricing. That's in keeping with our normal contracts. So these strategic partnerships are the long ones. There's five of them now. But you must remember we have multiple other long-term agreements with our customers that are still in the normal cycle of LTA renewals, which is those five-year periods. Again, we've been very careful about how we structure these long-term contracts, and I think they're fairly commercially robust.
David Egan
Chief Financial Officer, DPC Holdings
The other build is that we've said in the past that one of the key margin drivers for us is operational efficiencies. It's something that we're continuing to ramp up, investing in the business, improving our efficiencies, reducing our scrap rates, et cetera. So that is also margin for us to maintain and keep. from each of the custom partnerships and also the duration of them.
Lucy Sharma
Head of Investor Relations, DPC Holdings
And I think many of the other questions that have come online we've already answered. If you don't think you have, then please come back to me. But one last quick one. Is the Auburn Super Alloy Facility Partnership for MPP stroke GE or is that just excess capacity and the partner is someone else?
Mike Quinn
Chief Executive Officer, DPC Holdings
Great question, but one I'm not going to answer, right? So look, just on that, you know, super alloy is becoming very prominent in the casting world these days, right? It's becoming a very serious constraint. We're in a very fortunate position to have our own in-house super alloy capacity, which is a huge demand from the market. The facility business case has been underwritten by strategic partnership number four. I'm not going to disclose who that customer is. What I will tell you is if you go there today, lots of activity on site. The furnace has been ordered. It's on schedule and the overall project remains on schedule. So again, pretty excited about that. It's our first greenfield since I've been involved and everything remains on track. Thank you. Okay, thanks. Thanks, Lucy. That is the end of our earnings update today. Again, I'd just like to thank you all for your interest in Doncaster's and thanks for attending our call today. Thank you.
Alexandra
Conference Operator
This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.