EQPT EquipmentShare.com Inc.
$13.54
EquipmentShare.com Inc. Q3 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript
AI Conference Call Analysis
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Operator
Hello everyone. Thank you for joining us and welcome to the Equipment Share Q3 earnings call. After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star 1 again. I will now hand the conference over to Rhett Butler, VP of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Rhett Butler
Vice President of Investor Relations
Good morning and welcome to EquipmentShare's third quarter 2026 financial results conference call. Joining me today are Jabbok Schlacks, founder and chief executive officer, Willie Schlacks, founder and president, and David Marquardt, chief financial officer and chief accounting officer. Not with us today is Mark Wopata, Chief Data Officer and EVP of Finance, who was recently promoted to the title of father. We wish him well and look forward to his return next quarter. We have issued our earnings press release and posted an earnings presentation to our investor relations website. Thank you for listening. Please refer to our earnings press release, presentation, and SEC filings for a discussion of those risks. Equipment Share has no obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements made on this call. We will also reference certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in our earnings press release and presentation. Non-GAAP measures should be considered in addition to and not as a substitute for GAAP measures. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jabbok.
Jabbok Schlacks
Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Rhett, and good morning, everyone. We delivered another strong quarter with 32% year-over-year growth in OEC, producing 49% growth in rental segment revenue and 52% growth in rental segment adjusted EBITDA. Strong customer demand and our ability to deploy fleet efficiently across our network drove that performance, with rental segment margins expanding approximately 70 basis points year-over-year and 130 basis points sequentially. That 49% year-over-year rental revenue growth compares with 36% year-over-year growth in the prior year quarter. We are accelerating growth while continuing to expand rental margins. Strong customer demand and disciplined execution during the quarter gave us the confidence to raise our full year outlook again. Since the start of the year, we have increased our rental segment revenue outlook by more than $450 million and our adjusted core EBITDA outlook by more than $310 million. Thank you for watching.
Jabbok Schlacks
Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you for joining us.
Jabbok Schlacks
Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Given the multi-year nature of these projects and the projects we are winning for 2027, in addition to the continued maturity of our sites, we see a supportive backdrop into next year and expect our growth and margin expansion to continue. Our ability to deliver across those needs is helping us expand relationships with existing customers and win new projects. With 448 operational locations, including 408 full-service rental locations, 31 building materials locations, and 9 dealerships, and 10.7 billion of fleet under management at quarter end, we have the scale and reach to support them. As we discussed in Q2, more than 75% of first-year revenue at new locations came from customers already doing business with us elsewhere in the network. With national and regional customers representing 63% and 29% of our customer mix, respectively, we evaluate customer commitments, project schedules, and our ability to redeploy equipment when deciding where to add fleet and locations. Our mature rental locations generated 54% rental segment adjusted EBITDA margins on a trailing 12-month basis while continuing to scale. We put nearly 900 million of equipment on rent for the first time this quarter, with more than half going to locations over 24 months old. Our locations typically reach margin maturity after approximately 24 months, with rental margins above 50%. The margin maturity is only one milestone in a location's growth. We continue adding fleet as customer demand grows. Our organic approach is what makes that possible. We choose each property for its location, size, and layout so we can fully integrate our technology, deploy fleet efficiently, and expand as demand grows. Our organic model supports approximately 35 million of OEC per yard by year four, an estimated two to three times the OEC per site of our rental industry peers. It allows us to continue growing revenue and EBITDA per yard while maintaining rental margins above 50%. Slide 7 shows the earning potential of our existing locations at maturity. Based on the performance of our locations open more than four years, our mature state model calls for approximately $15.2 million in annual rental segment revenue and $9.8 million in annual core EBITDA per location. That includes $8.7 million of rental segment adjusted EBITDA and $1.1 million of sales segment adjusted EBITDA. Across the 408 full-service rental locations included in this analysis, those mature state economics translate to approximately $4 billion in annual core EBITDA. From that $4 billion of core EBITDA, we deduct approximately $2.75 billion for own program payouts, fleet replacement, cash interest, and cash taxes, leaving approximately $1.25 billion of annual free cash flow. This assumes no additional locations or improvement in own program economics or mature site returns and excludes capital for location growth.
Jabbok Schlacks
Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Slide 7 also shows what our fleet and capital structure could look like at maturity.
Jabbok Schlacks
Founder and Chief Executive Officer
We estimate approximately $14.7 billion of total rental fleet OVC split evenly between our balance sheet and the OWN program. Against that, We estimate approximately $4.3 billion of net debt and approximately $4.65 billion of appraised value in the own program fleet. The main assumption behind these figures are appropriate depreciation on the fleet, which is why the appraised value is lower relative to cost than it is today, and continued debt pay down. At a long-term target of 700 full-service rental locations, the same illustrative economics imply approximately $2.2 billion of annual cash flow. This return profile is why we continue investing in organic growth to meet customer demand. Our T3 powered rental operations generate strong margins and, as our locations scale, significant free cash flow. We control the pace of growth investment and can moderate it to prioritize free cash flow. All of our success starts with our teams. I recently visited one of our rental locations to celebrate the team reaching a significant financial milestone. I make these visits a regular part of my schedule and each visit reminds me that we have the best teams in the industry. The branch manager, a veteran with more than 30 years in the industry, told me he has never worked for a rental company so focused on solving customer problems and operating efficiently. He credited the transparency and accountability built into our processes and technology. His team can see how they're performing, take ownership of results, and address problems quickly. That is how we put operating discipline into practice across our network. He also shared how the team is supporting a major engineering and construction customer on large technology projects. including providing cooling through our advanced solution divisions. Earning more of that customer's business requires both technical expertise and disciplined execution. Getting the right equipment to the site, keeping it productive, and responding quickly when needs change, our team earns that trust through the work they do every day. The cooling work that team is doing is one example of the demand driving advanced solutions. Thank you for joining us. To serve that demand, we announced a multi-year agreement with Cummins to expand our natural gas generation fleet to nearly one gigawatt of capacity, which our teams will combine with T3 and our nationwide service network. We see a significant opportunity to grow advanced solutions by meeting more of these needs for customers we already serve, and you can find more details at equipmentshare.com forward slash energy. Before I turn it over to Willie, I encourage investors and shareholders to review the business and governance overview we posted to our investor relations website on October 19th, 2026. Among other topics, it provided additional details on our related party relationships. Equipment ownership by those parties in the OWN program is now zero, down from less than 1 million at the end of the second quarter. We continue to make progress towards eliminating property leases with those parties and are working to complete the remaining transactions in the months ahead. I will now turn the call over to Willie.
Willie Schlacks
Founder and President
Thanks, Jabbok. Our product teams are constantly delivering capabilities across our tech portfolio. And I want to highlight a few for you guys that we've been developing for some time that we anticipate scaling into next year. First, our latest access control technology brings touchless experience to equivalent access. This is something that most folks are familiar with within the consumer world where you can pull out your iPhone and unlock a lock, pay for goods and services, etc. But to have this within the construction equipment environment is quite unique. And it really reflects the investment for the last decade that we put into the access control market. With this product, we've got demand that consumes all of our production capacity for the next couple of years. So I'm really excited to see the impact this is going to make. Second, we've begun field testing machine-mounted 360-degree camera capture and safety systems. We see two primary benefits here, helping operators work more safely and reducing that operating risk at the edge and capturing that visual information that gives customers a much clearer picture of what's happening across a project. And this really becomes another node in our suite of vision systems. David Marquardt, Jabbok Schlacks, Mark Wopata, We've seen immediate interest from particularly the larger enterprise customers who prioritize that risk reduction. And I see this ultimately scaling to every category of applicable rental fleet that would be using a type of camera safety system like this and creating substantial value that is really only offered by equipment share. Third, our next-generation telemetry device has entered early production. This brings substantially more compute power, greater capacity to connect with machines, systems, sensors, and a far more robust operating system at the edge, and the ability to support these increasingly sophisticated AI applications that we're certainly deploying and investing in. As a reminder, we design and build our own telemetry. So this is manufactured by us for industrial and construction markets. And our deployed fleet really provides one of the largest continuous data sets on machine failure patterns, signals that are really coming from the edge around structured data of service events and unstructured information that might surround that. And that translates to simply more uptime. and lower costs for our customers. This is a small sampling of what our teams are working on and deploying. Thank you, Willie. The operating trends we have discussed are reflected in our financial performance. Strong customer demand and continued geographic expansion are
David Marquardt
Chief Financial Officer and Chief Accounting Officer
drove another quarter of accelerating growth while reinforcing the scalability of our business model. For the third quarter, total revenue was nearly $1.5 billion, an increase of 55% year over year. Net income and adjusted net income were $20 million and $46 million respectively, as compared to net income and adjusted net income of $6 million in the prior year period. Rental segment revenue was approximately $1.1 billion, up 49%, and rental segment adjusted EBITDA was $491 million, up 52%. Rental segment adjusted EBITDA margin increased nearly 70 basis points year-over-year to 44%. We delivered approximately 380 basis points of SG&A leverage, reflecting scale, cost savings, and operating efficiencies. That exceeded approximately 310 basis points of margin impact related to additional costs incurred to serve customer demand, which is primarily derived from three areas. The first is ancillary services, which had a margin impact of approximately 90 basis points. Ancillary services often lead to larger project rental revenues on customer job sites and produce a high return on minimal invested capital, but generate lower margins as compared to the mix of our other rental revenues. The ancillary services we offer help us serve more of our customers' needs, expanding those relationships. The second area is fuel and delivery costs, which together had a margin impact of 112 basis points during the quarter. higher fuel prices and related logistics costs increased our direct operating expenses this year. While we have passed a significant portion of those increases onto customers, that revenue carries a lower margin that impacts our overall margin percentage. It is also notable that we placed approximately $900 million of equipment on rent for the first time during the third quarter, as compared with approximately $550 million placed on rent a year ago. Getting that additional equipment into customers' hands brings upfront fuel and delivery costs before it generates a full period of rental revenue. Those initial deployment costs together with higher fuel and logistics costs overall explain the margin impact. And the third area is re-rent or equipment re-rent from another provider and then rent out to our customers to meet demand. This had a margin impact of 108 basis points during the quarter. We increased re-rent volume to meet strong customer demand where equipment availability was tight. particularly in certain categories of equipment that our customers need. Rerenting equipment supplements the fleet under our management and allows us to serve customers as we continue to scale but generates lower margins as the third party rental expense runs through our direct operating costs. As we expand the fleet under our management, we expect to fulfill a greater share of customer demand directly further enhancing our margins over time. Rerenting equipment to supplement our rental fleet helps us meet customer demand, which ultimately generates attractive returns. Our sales segment revenue was $294 million, including $243 million of sales to OWN program participants, reflecting our discipline and selective process for equipment sales into the OWN program. Sales segment adjusted EBITDA was $44 million for the quarter. Adjusted core EBITDA, which is the combination of our rental segment and sales segment and excludes $59 million of new market startup costs, was $594 million, increasing 40% year-over-year. Turning now to our capital allocation strategy, we remain focused on supporting customer demand while maintaining substantial liquidity and financial flexibility. At quarter end, total available liquidity was approximately $2.3 billion, consisting of $359 million of cash and $1.9 billion of availability under our ABL credit facility. Net leverage was 3.4 turns as compared to 3.7 turns a year ago. We continue to target year-end net leverage in the low three turns. Share repurchases are also an important part of our broader capital allocation strategy. When there is a severe dislocation of our share price in the market and we are permitted to trade outside of blackout periods, we are prepared and have the flexibility to repurchase shares within our financial policies. Turning to our outlook, we are reiterating the guidance announced on October 19th. At the midpoints, we expect total revenue of approximately 5.9 billion and adjusted core EBITDA of approximately 2.2 billion. Excluding approximately $284 million of sales segment adjusted EBITDA and $216 million of implied full-year new market startup costs yields approximately $1.7 billion of rental segment adjusted EBITDA on approximately $3.9 billion of rental segment revenue. Our guidance implies 32% growth in average OECs, Supporting 43% growth in rental segment revenue and 47% growth in rental segment adjusted EBITDA. The resulting full year rental segment adjusted EBITDA margin in our outlook is approximately 43%. representing more than 100 basis points of expansion over 2025. Specific to the fourth quarter, our guidance implies approximately mid 40s year over year growth in rental segment revenue and in rental segment adjusted EBITDA with upside potential in margins. We held the midpoints of our gross and net rental CapEx guidance unchanged while increasing expected year-end managed fleet OEC by $400 million to approximately $11.5 billion. That incremental fleet is expected to be sold directly into the Yonge program, so it does not affect our net rental capital expenditures. Those equipment sales also contribute to the increase in our sales segment adjusted EBITDA guidance. Strong customer demand and oversubscribed own program demand allow us to expand our managed fleet in the second half without increasing planned CapEx. At the midpoint, our full year net rental CapEx guidance is approximately $1 billion, as compared with $1.1 billion year-to-date through Q3. Consistent with our normal capital planning and historical performance, we expect to execute sales of equipment selectively into the OWN program for equipment purchased earlier in the year and absorbed in our rental fleet. The equipment sales proceeds are expected to exceed fourth quarter equipment purchases, reducing our full-year net capex target. Our net capex and equipment sales guidance reflects strong oversubscribed demand across own program channels and our confidence in completing those transactions. In summary, customer demand continues to drive our organic site expansion with additional full-service branch facilities and equipment fleet under our management. We are executing our expansion strategy prudently, mindful of building the business while maintaining a strong balance sheet and flexibility to provide optimal returns on the allocation of capital and looking ahead We believe there is a meaningful opportunity to outperform as we exit 2026. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Jabbok.
Jabbok Schlacks
Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Dave. To summarize the quarter, OEC grew 32%, rental segment revenue grew 49%, and rental segment adjusted EBITDA grew 52%. We are meeting strong customer demand, generating more revenue from our fleet, and expanding rental margins as we grow. We also have substantial growth ahead within the locations we've already opened. As those sites scale, we expect them to contribute more earnings and free cash flow. That gives us confidence in the investments we are making today and the business we are building for the long term. Thank you to our customers for trusting us with their work, to our employees for delivering these results, and to our investors for their continued support. Operator, we're ready for your questions.
Conference Operator
Operator
We will now begin the question and answer session. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star 1 again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question is from the line of Rob Wertheimer with Mellius Research. Rob, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Rob Wertheimer
Analyst, Melius Research
Thank you. Good morning, everybody. I wanted to sort of start out with PowerGem, which I think is an interesting expansion and I'm not sure it's not been replicated elsewhere. So, Jabbok, it seems like a gigawatt could be something close to a billion dollars in OECs. It's a little less flexible than some rental equipment, but I assume you have reasonable line of sight into placing it. So I wonder if you could give us any sense as to how much either rental revenue or EBITDA or timeline or, you know, how you see that business evolving. Thank you.
Jabbok Schlacks
Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, thanks, Rob. Great question. So power is something we're excited about. As you saw, it fits within our advanced solutions, which is consistent with the specialty with some of the peer sets. And we grew double year over year on that division. The power as we see, and it's not just, I think everybody talks of AI. It's really not just AI. You have a lot of tailwinds, especially large projects. Having really power sovereignty on job sites is very, very important. John Griffin, David Marquardt, that we're doing. We are in the short to midterm power. So that's the difference between a lot of competitors and peers that are signing 10, 15, 20 year contracts with large players. You make a lot less money being locked into a long term contract that you cannot change. When you have short term to midterm power, you can take advantage of a really good return on that capital. And that is the place we serve our customers. That allows us to get a great return on those assets. But to your original question, power, incredibly important to our customers across all sectors. It is an important thing as we're building the scale.
Rob Wertheimer
Analyst, Melius Research
And if I may, should we think about the Cummins slash Prime Power as being a sort of 28, 29 opportunity? Or you said multi-year in the press release. I just don't know when to start thinking about putting in the numbers.
Jabbok Schlacks
Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I think as you've probably read in a lot of the planning has to be done years in advance. We saw this about three years ago, that excess demand for different power solutions. And you'll hear more announcements from us. It is a multi-year going forward, the relationship with Cummins. And you'll start seeing some of that impact maybe as soon as the latter part of this quarter, which we're about halfway through. And as we roll into 2027, Your next question is from the line of Jamie Cook with Truist Securities.
Conference Operator
Operator
Jamie, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Jamie Cook
Analyst, Truist Securities
Hi, good morning. I guess just my first question, I appreciate the color on some of the headwinds you saw this quarter, whether it was fuel delivery, ancillary. Can you just talk to you know, what what what's embedded in your numbers sort of for the fourth quarter? And do you expect this to be a headwind in 2027? Or can can pricing offset that? And then my second question is, it looks like you're making fairly good improvement on your rental segment margins. Can you just talk about how you're thinking about the fourth quarter and whether we expect that trend should continue into next year? Thank you.
Jabbok Schlacks
Founder and Chief Executive Officer
I think I'll answer the second part of that question. Rental segment margins, absolutely. We do see significant opportunities from a margin standpoint. and then the headwinds from the macro. Dave talked about that on the prepared marks. We've been able to get, as we scale, and you saw that, there's efficiencies you get. A lot of that is driven by our tech stack, being able to use the data to run a more efficient company as we scale, not only for our customers, but also for us internally, operationally. So headwinds there. I think, again, to double click on those verticals, Rhett Butler, William Schlacks, Mark Wopata, Amy Susan, Rhett Butler, William Schlacks, Mark Wopata, Amy Susan, Rhett Butler, William Schlacks, More money flows through to the bottom line, but it does have a margin impact, and I think that's why it was relevant to call those out as well.
Jamie Cook
Analyst, Truist Securities
Okay, and then just, sorry, one follow-up question again, just following on with the power theme and the announcement with Cummins. Should we expect, like, is this relationship with Cummins exclusive, or could we expect you to announce additional relationships with other OEMs out there. Just wondering if this is a bigger opportunity besides Cummins. Thank you.
Jabbok Schlacks
Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, it's a great question, Jamie. There's not enough power by any one manufacturer. Cummins is a very, very important relationship with us at EquipmentShare, and we're integrating and growing with them. There is a lot more than one gigawatt of power needed. If you think of the U.S. today, you think of the studies made, even if you take out AI, all the other projects, megaprojects and things being built in the macro in the U.S., there is by 2030 to 2035 almost a doubling of the need of power if you look at the reports. So if you think of that, that is 500 to 600 gigawatts. We work with multiple partners, and you'll see announcements on a go-forward basis. Again, each one, and specifically as we're talking about comments, is very, very important for us.
Conference Operator
Operator
Thank you. Your next question is from the line of Aaron Kimson with Citizens JMP. Aaron, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Aaron Kimson
Analyst, Citizens JMP
Great. Thank you, guys, and congrats to Mark and his family and their growing family. My first question is the rental line was up 47% year over year. John Griffin, David Marquardt,
Jabbok Schlacks
Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Actually, you're exactly right. The owned economics on a go-forward basis. We dug into that really in Q2. So you saw a lot of the details, the institutional demand, the oversubscription of the owned program. That shows from a pricing as well, the 7% cost of capital. You're now seeing that flow through, and you saw that specifically in third quarter, and you'll see that on a go-forward basis as well.
Aaron Kimson
Analyst, Citizens JMP
Got it. Thank you. and then as a follow up, you've called out a number of tailwinds driving the demand for rental equipment at a scale only four players can really meet. I feel like a disproportionate amount of investor focus goes to data center bills relative to the low double digit proportion of revenue that comes from data centers for you guys. So can you give us a line or two on what you're seeing from some of the other tailwinds driving your business and what the pipeline looks like between money coming in from the eight year infrastructure bill passed in 2021 on-shoring medical campuses and biotech manufacturing and then electrification.
Jabbok Schlacks
Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, it's a great question. For us, if AI went away tomorrow, we see the same growth pattern and the same actually increased margins as we scale. So similar growth patterns we see today. And I think you called it out specifically. When you think of things that didn't really exist four years ago, that there's only Effectively four companies in the world that can serve the U.S. market on projects where you need to deploy 2,000 to 3,000 machines within a relatively short amount of time. Healthcare peptides, GLP-1, healthcare campuses, the scale and scope of these projects really didn't exist three to four years ago. Huge tailwind. Onshoring, same thing. We saw that really in the 80s with a lot of the car manufacturers. The U.S. didn't really do much for 30, 40 plus years. And then the last two or three years, the amount of 10, 20, 30, 50 billion dollar projects specifically in manufacturing here in the U.S., because it's riskier for manufacturers to build really anywhere else, even closer partners, a huge tailwind for our industry and specifically the top four. Electrification, even if you take out A.I., When you think of electric vehicles, semi trucks, others, huge, massive pull on the grid, and we think of clean energy, that's a better way to get clean energy directly to where you need it. So from that standpoint, we support the equipment, support the projects to build those. And infrastructure, it's about a trillion dollars with the infrastructure bill. That happens over time, going from the federal government to the state to the local to municipalities. Those tailwinds we're seeing A lot more drivers and again, very large projects that only a few players in the world can support this U.S. market.
Aaron Kimson
Analyst, Citizens JMP
Understood. Thanks so much.
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question is from the line of Sean Wondrak with Deutsche Bank. Sean, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Sean Wondrak
Analyst, Deutsche Bank
Good morning. Nice quarter. It's a question. You know, you had 49 percent growth on 32 percent OEC growth. How sustainable is that improvement in fleet productivity? And if you could give us just kind of a rough idea of what's happening with utilization and price, just directionally, that'd be super helpful.
Jabbok Schlacks
Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I think, and I'll turn to Dave here so he can jump in. But yeah, the 49% growth really reflects the strength of the model that we've built. and that's built on a tech stack that serves customers differently. So when you deploy 32% OECs, that's a clear number deployment, 49% growth. And then on top of that, 52% from a core unit standpoint, really it's a couple vectors happening there. So it's one pricing. We're in a good, if you kind of think of economics 101, we're in an environment where there is more demand and less supply. which pricing does go up. So that is absolutely a tailwind for us. And we're also increasing the productivity for our customers. So the question is, why do customers choose you and don't choose your competitors when you're able to increase their productivity utilizing a better tech stack in a demand environment when there's not enough equipment available? You do have that from a fleet productivity. They're able to get done more with less and I'm able to charge more, which you see flowing through for them through the margins. So it's a good macro and specifically where we fit in is super helpful. Dave, you want to add?
David Marquardt
Chief Financial Officer and Chief Accounting Officer
Yeah, just to add to that, of course, our rental revenue is supported by the 32% growth in our fleet OEC, strong fleet absorption, high utilization, and positive pricing. And we're seeing that demand across mature and newer locations, but particularly on mega project sites where We are providing a broader range of services to help serve our customer needs and expand those relationships. Also, I wanted to just recall again that we placed approximately 900 million of equipment on rent for the first time during the third quarter. And that compares to about 550 million placed on rent for the first time a year ago. So really strong absorption.
Sean Wondrak
Analyst, Deutsche Bank
That's very helpful, thank you. And just as we sit here, you know, it's sort of mid-November, have you had any initial thoughts about CapEx in 2027? And do you expect the OWN program to sort of stay at the same percentage of the overall fleet?
Jabbok Schlacks
Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I think we give, we try to make sure we have a long-term vision of where the company is on 2030. and we do see that at 50-50 with the data we have today on a go-forward basis. CapEx, I think we're looking at currently, and Dave talked about that a little bit, on Q4 as a standalone quarter, we have a CapEx reduction. And what's interesting, and I think this shows the strength of our capital structure, Q4 in a standalone, if I look forward, we expect about 400 million of free cash flow. And as we look at the markets at any moment in time, if the macro and the data shows that we can enter into harvest mode and a go forward basis run rate produce about a billion dollars of free cash flow while opening zero more locations. So that is good from a reflection standpoint on the flexibility of our capital structure.
Sean Wondrak
Analyst, Deutsche Bank
That's very helpful. Jabbok, just to that one point, how long do you need to cancel orders? Like, what is your visibility, you know, let's say the market turns pretty dramatically. You know, how much visibility do you require to sort of alleviate the capex burden there?
Jabbok Schlacks
Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I think what's fascinating is we have more visibility at the edge, which is the fancy way of saying at the equipment. Willie talked about the devices we have and the data. And data is incredibly powerful, even more so in the age of AI. We're able to see that. We saw that in 2020, and we were able to move dramatically quicker than really any of the peer set within our industry. So we do not see a reason to at this point. We've talked a lot about peers being options, not obligations. That is how we structure it. But from a data and a go forward, we have really good visibility in 27 and as we move into 28. And that is really the strength of the mega projects across the different types of projects that we actually see today.
Conference Operator
Operator
Thank you very much. Your next question is from the line of Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer. Scott, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Scott Schneeberger
Analyst, Oppenheimer
Thanks very much. Good morning. Just curious, I mean, a lot of increases to guidance this year. Business is clearly very strong, and I believe it was cited that there's potential upside still even to the existing guidance. Could you just speak to what the primary drivers would be to achieve that, and then kind of the flip side of the question of what are you on the watch out for that could push you toward the lower end of the guidance, and not just the coming quarter, but how you view the business out of two quarters? Thanks.
Jabbok Schlacks
Founder and Chief Executive Officer
I think watching out for, just starting with the last question there, we're always looking at the macro. We can control the controllables. If something happens in the macro that we need to go from growth mode to harvest mode, we will do that immediately. And you'll see that again from a counter cyclical nature and from a cash flow production, that's very meaningful from a cash flow. The upside from the guidance We are very conservative. I think you've seen that over the last three quarters. We're a New Republic company. We don't want to get over our skis on guidance. It is a strong business, and we do see meaningful upside when you're thinking of margins on a go-forward basis. But again, we want to be conservative as we discuss with you, our shareholders, on the guidance on a go-forward basis.
Scott Schneeberger
Analyst, Oppenheimer
Great, thanks. And then... Just curious, when Dave was mentioning re-rent, and I think it was over 100 basis points margin impact, could you just speak a little bit about what are the primary asset classes where you're re-renting? I assume maybe a lot in specialty, and it sounds like you're looking to internalize that, which would be logical. Is that something that would occur maybe via acquisition or is that more of an organic play? Thanks.
Jabbok Schlacks
Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I think it's a broad spectrum. We have about 3,000 categories that we supply equipment to our customers. When you have that breadth of offerings and a customer only wants to use you, equipment share, because of the tech stack, because of the service that enables, that's where we want to say yes to customers. So it's pretty broadly distributed. We did support almost a billion dollars, Dave talked about that, deployed in one quarter. So it is that excess demand, which happens the next quarter or two, and that's where the margin, slight margin drag is transitory. You'll see that replaced by unbalance sheet, please. But to answer the question, it is pretty broadly based across those categories. Great, thanks.
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question is from the line of Jerry Revich with Wells Fargo. Jerry, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Kevin Uherog
Analyst, Wells Fargo
Morning. This is Kevin Uherog on for Jerry. Just had a question on how should we think about OEM capacity heading into 2027? Have lead times stretched out and are you still able to get the equipment you need?
Jabbok Schlacks
Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yes, we're able to get the fleet we need. And a lot of that is the strength of the partnerships with OEMs built over the last decade. There is less fleet available with a high demand environment. Those partnerships is where those are meaningful to us and allows us to serve our customers, which may not be with other rental companies.
Kevin Uherog
Analyst, Wells Fargo
Understood. And then you talked about manufacturing strength in your prepared remarks. Semi-Fab CapEx is expected to roughly double in 2027. As we get closer to then, what have you delivered so far and what does the delivery schedule look like over the next few quarters?
Jabbok Schlacks
Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, maybe a little bit of clarification on the question. The 2030 goal, we feel confident we've had a little bit faster Fleet Absorption, we talked about in Q2, we're talking about it now. So we expect to exceed that and actually happen faster. Maybe there's some more details that would be helpful there.
Kevin Uherog
Analyst, Wells Fargo
Talking about the semi-fab capex as we think about it expecting to double into 2027, have you seen any kind of preloading of the fleet and whatnot? Just wanted to see what you're seeing on the ground.
Jabbok Schlacks
Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, on the ground, we see, I know there's a lot we hear from the macro. We see no slowdown. I think just to make it simple, across every single cohort, what's also interesting is the type of customers. When you think of residential, commercial, when you think of the local customers, the regional and the national, we have some information in the presentation on those. I think it's a little bit of a rising tide with some of these customers and some of these projects because there is not enough fleet. We see very, very good demand across all cohorts. And that may be more us than other companies, but that's what we're seeing today in the market.
Kevin Uherog
Analyst, Wells Fargo
Okay, great. Thank you.
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question is from the line of Ken Newman with KeyBank Capital Markets. Ken, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Ken Newman
Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets
Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the question. You know, Jabbok, for the first one, you know, it feels like utilization has surprised to the upside for both you and most of your peers in the industry over the last few quarters. And I know you don't quantify time specifically, but just from a higher level, I'm curious how much more structural room is there for time utilization to go higher on a same store basis? And just, you know, I guess from a higher level, how do you think about Your ability to raise the OEC per branch from here, or if that would incentivize you to maybe accelerate branch openings from here.
Jabbok Schlacks
Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I think time utilization, what's an interesting thing, and you can see the cohort analysis, and I would, we kind of talked about with the governance and business update, gives even more detail on that transition from the less than 12 months to 24 months, the over 48 months. and even as the stores are in longer and that increase in margin, which does show both time and financial utilization as those margins increase. So I think that's probably the most helpful way to look at it. We're always, we do have high growth. We look at current cash flow and future cash flow because that's a metric we judge ourselves on. But we do it in a very, very disciplined manner. So making sure as we scale the stores, that we are getting margin increase across all cohorts. And as they're in longer, they do become more mature. You have clustering, you have similar customers, and we've seen that margin expansion over time. And you'll see that. We think that's going to be consistent on a go forward basis.
Ken Newman
Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets
Got it. Okay. And then for my follow on, you know, I guess I was a little surprised that the third quarter EBITDA flow through margin in the rental segments was only modestly higher in the second quarter, despite sales being 10 points higher year over year versus last quarter. I'm guessing that's mostly being driven by some of the ancillary headwinds that you guys pointed to earlier in the call. But, you know, I know you don't want to guide to 27 yet, but just from a higher level, how do you think about the trends for rental segment flow through for, you know, through an up cycle if demand remains this strong? Obviously, you get the benefits of the mix from The mature branches kind of becoming a larger proportion, but can you get closer to like the high 40s, low 50s on EBITDA flow through for that segment? You know, call it 12 months from now.
Jabbok Schlacks
Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Dave, you want to start with that?
David Marquardt
Chief Financial Officer and Chief Accounting Officer
Yeah. I mean, we believe that there's continued support for SG&A leverage as we move forward. and that will be offset by higher cost to serve customers in particular on the mix of services that we provide to some of the large national customers on mega project sites. That will still be positive to EBITDA margin, but it may have a different margin profile. And so you'll see that in our margin mix going forward.
Jabbok Schlacks
Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I think to answer the 2027, as we get more mature stores, those mature stores, as we've talked about, have a much higher margin profile. When you start, you deploy a billion dollars to the fleet. Half of that fleet went to mature stores. Half of that went to new stores. New stores start at zero. So I think that's always understand the strength of our model is organic. That gives us some huge advantages. Stores do start at zero. So when you're starting getting location, you're bringing in fleet, the deployment of that almost billion dollars worth of fleet for the first time. There are some short-term costs there, which is why you see that margin improvement dramatically as it goes from year one to two to three to four. So yes, you will see that margin improvement overall with the company as we go into 2017.
Joe Ritchie
Analyst, Goldman Sachs
Very helpful. Thanks.
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question is from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Joe, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Joe Ritchie
Analyst, Goldman Sachs
Thank you. Good morning, guys. So look, clearly the demand environment remains strong. Your value proposition seems to be being taken well by the market. We kind of skipped over the data center demand picture at this point. You know, given kind of changing politics, particularly in Texas and concerns that the moratorium might create an air pocket for data center development there. I'm just curious, you know, if you maybe want to just talk a little bit about your exposure and your just your thoughts around, you know, what's happening specifically in that region.
Jabbok Schlacks
Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I think we talked about that on the repair remarks. I think it helps repeating, but we have about 10% exposure to data centers. We don't think AI is going away. We see no indication. I think any of us who utilize AI, which is probably 99% of Americans, this is something that is changing the way we work. It's increasing productivity. What it is showing is the importance to have continuous new data at the edge. That edge is either human or, in our case, the machines as well and the materials. So, it strengthens our model and what we're actually doing. With the difference in America, what makes America great is we do have political parties and we can have changes at the state level. I think it reemphasizes the question I think Rob was asking about the power generation. We are absolutely mobile power. We can deploy that anywhere in the US in 48 hours. What's interesting about AI, which is different than a lot of these other large trends, if you go back the last couple hundred years, electricity with railroads, with fiber, it doesn't really care where it is. Latency is less specific. So whether you're in North Dakota, whether you're in Texas, whether you're in Nevada, that's less important because latency is less of an issue. You need space. You need power and having the ability to deploy that power to deploy that coin, which we haven't talked about as much, but as a huge tailwind for us. And we're one of the best in the industry from a support standpoint. Uh, it is definitely a net benefit, uh, to us as a cause as a company, as we support our customers.
Joe Ritchie
Analyst, Goldman Sachs
Okay. Got it. That's helpful, Jabbok. And I guess just a quick near term question. You guys referenced conservatism and the guide. Clearly you guys have been beating numbers all year. If you had to point to whether it's fleet absorption, pricing, maybe some alleviation of those margin headwinds that you guys discussed earlier, where do you think that there is maybe potential upside in how you guys have laid out the guide for the rest of the year?
Jabbok Schlacks
Founder and Chief Executive Officer
I think I would say, again, we don't want to get ahead of our skis. I know we're conservative as a younger public company, even though we've been around for over a decade as a Your next question is from the line of Seth Weber with BNP. Seth, your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Seth Weber
Analyst, BNP
Hey, guys, good morning. I just want to ask, you know, the local markets continue to be kind of just, you know, bumping along here. Are you starting to see any equipment kind of bleed from the local markets into the busier markets? Whether from just a competitive perspective, or the national guys just moving fleet out of the local markets into some of these more robust areas? Thanks.
Jabbok Schlacks
Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I think the context around the question is, thanks, Seth, for the question. Local markets are interesting. They're more, if you think of local customers who serve local markets, something like an interest rate change or inflationary can have a much bigger, faster impact on a local market, whether it's housing, whether it's commercial, than you would with a project which is 10 to 20 billion supported by the largest, most profitable companies in the world. So you'll see that with us. We think local customers are extremely important. And the tech that you can help to manage 3000 machines on a job site is fundamental and changes labor productivity. It's actually even more fundamental when you have one or two machines because understanding who's using it, how they're using it, what they're doing, when you have the job going, change your productivity, that really helps in the local markets. But I think as we talked about on the call, it's kind of a rising tide environment. as you have less equipment more demand it's putting pressure on the local markets you do have some local markets players supporting some outside projects that would be considered infrastructure or mega projects so it is a little bit of a mix right now on some crossover when you think of the different cohorts or the customers that we're serving today that's helpful thanks and then maybe just for Dave the I appreciate the net the net leverage
Seth Weber
Analyst, BNP
Commentary. Can you just give us any sense of timing for hitting that low two turns target that you guys have talked to? I know it's obviously dependent on CapEx and the macro, but how you're thinking about the two turns right now?
David Marquardt
Chief Financial Officer and Chief Accounting Officer
Yeah, thanks for the question. So we have a our policies are to maintain leverage in the near term in the low three turns. And we expect to be there by the end of the year as we exit 2026. Longer term, as we get toward 2030, we would expect to continue to de-lever and get into the mid to high two turns. So that's part of our plan and strategy as we continue to grow in a prudent way.
Seth Weber
Analyst, BNP
Got it. Thank you guys. Appreciate it.
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question is from the line of Stephen Fisher with UBS. Stephen, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Stephen Fisher
Analyst, UBS
Thanks. Good morning. Clearly, the 49% growth you delivered is pretty robust growth, but there was a slight tick down in the number of new full-service rental locations you added this quarter. Any reason for that? and what's your expectation for the full service location as in Q4 and maybe even kind of thoughts on Q1 at this point?
Jabbok Schlacks
Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, we do, we're about halfway through, we're getting close to halfway through the fourth quarter, so we feel confident in our guide on locations. If you think of permitting and site openings, you do have a little bit of difference quarter by quarter, but we do feel confident in the year end guide. And then we'll talk about 27. Excited to talk about that within the first quarter of 27.
Stephen Fisher
Analyst, UBS
Okay. And then your Q4 rental revenue implies around, I think, 34%, 35% growth down from the 49%. I know you said you're being conservative. And I know in the general topic of conservatism, you mentioned to Joe Ritchie about sort of margins. I guess I'm just kind of curious with the mindset going into Q4 that you are being conservative, how hard would it be to accelerate from the 49% growth that you're talking about you had this quarter given that you had the conservatism mindset last quarter and you actually accelerated from the 39%. So is this an environment where you think you can still even accelerate from here?
Jabbok Schlacks
Founder and Chief Executive Officer
I really appreciate the question. I think what's really interesting is, as you're pointing out, the 49% growth. This really hasn't been done in history from a billion-dollar base, and it really speaks to the strength of our model. And then the quality of growth, I think, is really important. We only put in 32% increase in OEC, and I'm saying only, but that's fantastical from an organic growth standpoint. On that 32%, we grew 49% revenue. That rolls off the tongue. That has not happened in history. And it causes you to look, why is it different? That's the strength of our model. That's the data. That is the technology we provide our customers. And on top of that, we grew 52% core EBITDA. That is a growth model and a growth engine that produces more dollars. So, and then when you look at that enablement for the flexibility of our capital structure, That enables a fourth quarter on a standalone basis for 400 million of free cash flow. And if we move into harvest mode, a billion dollars on a run rate and a forward run rate. That is a powerful, powerful engine and model. So I think it's helpful. And we do see significant upside to kind of answer the original question within Q4. We think it's a very, very good opportunity for upside.
Stephen Fisher
Analyst, UBS
Thank you very much.
Conference Operator
Operator
This concludes our question and answer session. I will now turn the call back to Jabbok Schlacks for closing remarks.
Jabbok Schlacks
Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, thank you all for joining. Have an amazing day. Thank you.
Conference Operator
Operator
This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.