EXEL Exelixis, Inc.

NASDAQ
$66.20

Exelixis, Inc. Q3 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript

AI Conference Call Analysis

Sign in or subscribe to read.
Tawanda
Conference Call Operator
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Exelixis Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call. My name is Tawanda, and I will be your operator for today. As a reminder, this call has been recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the call over to your host for today, Mr. Andrew Peters, Senior Vice President of Strategy and Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Andrew Peters
Senior Vice President, Strategy and Investor Relations
Thank you, Tawanda, and thank you all for joining us for the Exalexis Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call. Joining me on today's call are Mike Morrissey, our President and CEO, Chris Senner, our Chief Financial Officer, Dana Aftab, our Executive Vice President of Research and Development, and PJ Haley, our Executive Vice President of Commercial, who will review our progress for the Third Quarter 2026 and the September 30th, 2026. During the call today, we will refer to financial measures not calculated according to generally accepted accounting principles. Please refer to today's press release, which is posted on our website, for an explanation of our reasons for using such non-GAAP measures, as well as tables deriving these measures from our GAAP results. During the course of the presentation, we will be making forward-looking statements regarding future events and the future performance of the company. This includes statements about possible developments regarding discovery, product development, regulatory, commercial, financial, and strategic matters, potential growth opportunities, and government drug pricing policies and initiatives. Actual events or results could, of course, differ materially. We refer you to the documents we file from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which under the heading Risk Factors, identify important factors that could cause actual results differ materially from those expressed by the company verbally and in writing today, including, without limitation, risks and uncertainties related to product commercial success, market competition, regulatory review and approval processes, conducting clinical trials, compliance with applicable regulatory requirements, our dependence on collaboration partners, and the level of costs associated with discovery, product development, Business Development in Commercialization Activities. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mike.
Mike Morrissey
President and Chief Executive Officer
All right. Thank you, Andrew, and thanks to everyone for joining us on the call today. XOX has had a strong third quarter and continues to advance the key components of our business. The company is well-positioned to deliver on our strategic objectives and tactical goals for 2026 and beyond, as we aspire to become a company with a diverse pipeline of potential oncology franchise assets and opportunities. Most importantly, zanzalintinib is positioned to drive the next phase of growth for Exalexis as our second franchise molecule, potentially first with a third-line plus CRC opportunity. followed by several waves of pivotal trials that we'll highlight today. Cabo's strong third quarter performance reinforces our confidence in its long-term revenue growth trajectory. We saw solid year-over-year growth in both the RCC and net indications in Q3 and are excited with the potential of the Cabo net indication, which serves as the foundation of our future expanded net franchise with Zanza and other molecules in our pipeline. The bottom line today is that we remain laser-focused to advance XL to the next level with numerous opportunities as we build new oncology franchises through discovery, development, commercial, and business development activities while we reinforce our existing Cabo franchise. Key highlights for the third quarter of 2026 include, first, ZANSA is in the spotlight as our next potential franchise opportunity. Zanza remains our number one R&D priority, and we are advancing key objectives across the program. Beyond our current pivotal trials, we are actively advancing a second wave of potential pivotal trials that could further expand scope, reach, and long-term value of Zanza in GU, GI, and other indications. Our goal is to build a durable franchise with stacking capabilities that could drive growth for years to come. Second, we continue to see substantial growth from the Cabo Sanford franchise. Cabo remains the leading TKI for RCC and the market leader for the Oral Second Line Plus net segment. Third quarter, 2026, U.S. Cabo franchise net product revenues grew approximately 11% year-over-year to $605 million. continuing its role as the worldwide leading TKI, Global Cabo Franchise Net Product Revenues, generated by ExoLexis and its partners grew approximately 11% year-over-year to $818 million in the third quarter, 2026. Third, our commitment to rigorous expense management and capital allocation is unwavering as we invest in our mission-critical R&D priorities while returning cash to shareholders with our share repurchase program. We believe our expense management and capital allocation strategy is an important corporate differentiator and positions us to create both short-term and long-term shareholder value while maintaining strategic flexibility. Third quarter and year-to-date progress underscores the strength of our oncology franchise strategy as we advance ZANZA towards becoming a major franchise, develop our broad portfolio, go to the composition of business, and maintain disciplined capital allocation. So with that, please see our press release issued an hour ago for our quarterly financial results and a comprehensive summary of key corporate milestones achieved during the period. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Chris.
Chris Senner
Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Mike. For the third quarter, 2026, the company reported total revenues of approximately $659 million, which included Cabo's Antidote franchise U.S. net product revenues of $605 million. KabaMedxNet product revenues were $603 million and included no clinical trial sales. As a continued reminder, clinical trial sales have historically been choppy between quarters, and we expect this to continue into the future. Gross net for the KabaZantiter franchise in the third quarter was approximately 29%, which is lower than the gross net we experienced in the second quarter. This decrease in gross net deductions in the third quarter is primarily due to lower 340B discounts when compared to the second quarter. Additionally, we're updating our estimate for full year 2026 gross to net deductions, and we're now projecting that'll be approximately 30%. Our Cabo Medics trade inventory was down at 1.8 weeks on hand at the end of the third quarter when compared to the second quarter. Total revenues in the third quarter also include approximately $52 million in royalties earned from our partners Ipsen and Takeda on their sales of Cabo Zantes. Our total operating expenses for the third quarter of 2026 were approximately $390 million compared to $380 million in the second quarter. The sequential increase in these operating expenses was primarily driven by higher legal and advisory fees, marketing expenses, and higher cost of goods sold, which were offset by lower license and other collaboration costs. Provision for income taxes for the third quarter of 2026 was approximately $64.7 million compared to approximately $50.6 million for the second quarter of 2026. The company reported GAAP net income of approximately $218 million, or $0.88 per share basic, and $0.85 per share diluted for the third quarter of 2026. The company also reported non-GAAP net income of approximately $240 million, or $0.97 per share basic, and $0.94 per share diluted. Non-GAAP net income excludes the impact of approximately $22 million of stock-based compensation expense net of the related income tax effect. Cash and marketable securities for the quarter ended September 30th, 2026, were approximately $1.4 billion. During the third quarter of 2026, we repurchased approximately $250 million of the company's outstanding common stock, resulting in the retirement of approximately 4.5 million shares of the company's outstanding common stock at an average price per share of $55.77. As of the end of the third quarter of 2026, we had approximately $348 million remaining under the $750 million stock repurchase plan authorized for the company's board in May 2026. And finally, we're updating the full year 2026 financial guidance, reflecting changes to our cost of goods sold and our tax rate estimates, which are detailed on slide 13 of our earnings presentation. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Dana.
Dana Aftab
Executive Vice President, Research and Development
Thanks, Chris. Our unified strategy in R&D is focused on developing multiple franchise molecules in oncology. Therefore, we continue to be focused on maximizing our productivity with disciplined investment in high-value opportunities for Zanza as well as the rest of our portfolio. Our strategy is based on our experience with CABO, where 14 completed pivotal trials and eight approvals firmly cemented its franchise status and brought tremendous value to patients across a spectrum of different cancers. We're taking a similar approach with ZANSA, where we now have seven ongoing trials that are potentially label-enabling, which we refer to as Wave 1. Those trials address just a subset of the potential opportunities for ZANSA, and we are now well underway on planning and executing our Wave 2 pivotal studies for ZANSA. All of these activities are aligned with our strategy, which prioritizes development of ZANSA as a multidimensional, solid tumor oncology franchise molecule. The STELR 316 trial is a key component of this strategy and is designed to entrench ZANZA in the GI franchise. This is a pivotal phase 3 trial investigating ZANZA with and without subcutaneous pembro in patients with resected stage 2 or 3 colorectal cancer who, following definitive therapy, have tested positive for molecular residual disease and have no radiographic evidence of disease. I'm happy to say that sites in this trial are now activated and enrolling participants. We are particularly excited about this trial, not only because of its potential to improve outcomes in CRC patients at an earlier stage of disease than was addressed in the Stellar 303 trial, but also because it utilizes the Signatera test to select patients with the greatest need. Regarding the NDA based on Stellar 303, our updated PDUFA action date is March 3rd, 2027. In the neuroendocrine tumor indication, STELR311 is our global phase 3 trial evaluating ZANSA compared to Everolimus as an initial oral therapy in patients with pancreatic or extrapancreatic neuroendocrine tumors. STELR311 positions ZANSA to potentially become the first and only small molecule to be randomized against an active control in a pivotal trial in this indication. which, depending on the data, could potentially position ZANSA to broadly displace other oral agents in the frontline setting. Thus, we are very enthusiastic about Stellar 311, and that sentiment is also shared by investigators and patients based on the continued, robust enrollment we've observed in the trial since its activation. In the GU tumor franchise, Stellar 304 is our first pivotal trial for ZANSA in kidney cancer, evaluating the combination of ZANSA plus nivolumab versus sunitinib in patients with non-clear-cell renal cell carcinoma. We completed enrollment in Stellar 304 last year, and we now expect top-line results from the study to be available in the first quarter next year. If positive, those results could lead to our second NDA filing for ZANZA. In clear-cell RCC, progress continues with regard to the two pivotal Phase III studies that Merck is running to evaluate ZANZA in combination with Belzudafan. with LightSpark 033 investigating the combination in the frontline setting and LightSpark 034 in the second line plus setting. Finally, for our wave one trial updates, STELR 201 is our phase two trial evaluating ZANSA in patients with recurrent meningioma who are no longer responsive to or eligible for local therapies. And enrollment in the trial continues to exceed our initial projections. This indication represents a very high unmet need in neuro-oncology which we believe is a factor in the robust enrollment we've observed. Pending favorable results and given the absence of any approved systemic therapies in this setting, the STELR-201 trial could be an important opportunity for ZANSA to become the first systemic therapy that could improve outcomes for these patients. We're excited to see these seven ongoing wave one trials continuing to move forward and we believe that ZANSA's differentiated profile has the potential to translate into meaningful benefit for patients and other tumor settings and or combinations with additional molecules and mechanisms of action. To realize that potential, we are actively pursuing the next wave of potential pivotal trials or wave two for ZANSA. A primary focus for wave two is to continue investigating ZANSA combined with established immunotherapies given the demonstrated clinical differentiation we've observed with ZANSA paired with the TEZO in CRC and with NEVO in RCC, which we believe strongly supports ZANSA's potential to be the TKI of choice for combinations with immune checkpoint inhibitors. A clear fit within this strategy is STELR-202, our phase two trial in squamous non-small cell lung cancer. That's investigating the addition of Zanza to Pembro in the maintenance phase after induction with Pembro plus chemotherapy. I'm happy to announce that STELR-202 is now initiated in enrolling participants. In addition to STELLAR-202 in lung cancer, we're also planning combinations with established checkpoint inhibitors in other tumor types in wave 2, including bladder cancer. We are especially interested in and planning for a potential trial for bladder cancer patients previously treated with enfortumab-vidotin plus a PD-1 immune checkpoint inhibitor. Our cohort in STELLAR-002 evaluating ZANZA in this setting has enrolled extremely quickly affirming the substantial unmet need in this setting. Beyond established IO molecules, the mechanism of action of ZANZA clearly supports combinations with newer generations of IO-based therapy as well. To that end, we've begun enrolling a cohort combining our novel bispecific immunotherapy, XB628, with ZANZA in our XB628 Phase 1 trial. The primary focus of this cohort is safety, and patients across a range of cancers are being enrolled. We expect to begin enrolling expansion cohorts soon to focus on our key tumor franchises, including GU and GI. We've also been engaged in discussions with potential collaborators to plan studies combining ZANSA with their novel molecules and mechanisms of action to address unmet needs across a spectrum of cancers, primarily focused in GU and GI indications. And we plan to give further updates on these activities as we get closer to launching the trials. Beyond immunotherapies, we're also exploring the combination of ZANSA with chemotherapy, specifically docetaxel, in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer who have measurable disease. This combination is being investigated in an expansion cohort in stellar OO2, which is actively enrolling patients. The rationale for this cohort is based on data with CABO, where a small Phase II study showed favorable outcomes when CABO is combined with docetaxel in patients with metastatic CRPC. If Zanzibar in combination with docetaxel is shown to be safe and active, that could open up a number of opportunities across a range of solid tumors where docetaxel, other chemotherapies, or ADCs carrying cytotoxic payloads remain the standard of care, such as second-line non-smell cell lung cancer and CRC. Accordingly, other studies combining Zanzibar with cytotoxic modalities to be potentially included in Wave 2 are in the planning stage to allow us to move quickly dependent on the data that emerge. Finally, our early clinical pipeline continues to progress, and we're also advancing new small molecule and ADC programs toward IND filings and development candidate nominations. In this regard, I'm happy to announce that we have a new development candidate in our pipeline, XL558, a selective somatostatin receptor 2 agonist, which has recently been nominated and for which we plan to submit an IND later this year. I look forward to sharing more details on this and other pipeline programs as they advance. And with that, I'll turn the call over to PJ. Thank you, Dana.
PJ Haley
Executive Vice President, Commercial
The Cabo Medix franchise continues to show strength after more than a decade since its initial launch. With seven indications predominantly in the GU and GI solid tumor space, Cabo Medix is a best-in-class TKI across these therapeutic franchises. ExoLixis has built and refined significant commercial capabilities throughout this time, including a foundation of success in the community setting. As Dana detailed, the Zanzalintinib franchise is positioned to build on the foundation of CaboMedx in both GU and GI oncology and beyond with its extensive development program with what we believe to be a superior molecule. We are excited about the potential approval of Zanza in colorectal cancer as our first indication in a large tumor type significant unmet medical need. CRC is largely treated in the community. provides an opportunity to leverage the strength of our capabilities in that setting. We're thrilled with the results of Stellar 303. Sending regulatory approval, we believe that these data would provide Exelixis with a compelling commercial opportunity in one of the big four tumors. The Third Line Plus CRC setting consists of approximately 23,000 patients in the U.S., represents an overall market opportunity of approximately $1.5 billion in terms of contemporary pricing. Our market research and advisory boards demonstrate positive feedback and excitement for the Stellar 303 data. Physicians reiterate the significant unmet medical need for patients in the third-line setting and are excited for the potential to have a regimen available for the broader population of CRC patients. The analysis of CRC prescribers demonstrates a significant overlap with CaboMedx prescribers at approximately 70%. And when including co-location of addresses, the overlap increases to 90%. This overlap and the fact that the majority of CRC is treated in the community position us well for the potential launch of ZANSA. Turning to Cabo Max, net product revenue grew 12% year over year for Q3 2026 compared to Q3 2025, while showing strength across all facets of the business. RCC continues to grow as we have a strong promotional focus on our first line 9ER data, where we maintain a high market share as the number one TKI plus IO combination, in addition to being the number one prescribed TKI, and renal cell carcinoma. The net business continues to grow as CaboMedx continues to be the number one prescribed oral therapy in the second line plus setting. The prescription data in the oral TKI market basket of Cabo, Avatinib, Citinib, Sunitinib, and Pazopinib convey the strength of Cabo relative to the competition. Looking at the TRX comparison, Q3 2025 to Q3 2026, Cabo Medics grew three share points from 46% to 49%. Additionally, Cabo Medics TRX volume grew 13% in Q3 2026 compared to Q3 2025, outpacing the growth rate of the market basket, which was 6% for the same period. In RCC, Cabo Medics continues to show strength with demand growth and first-line combination market share, where Cabo Medics plus Novolumab is the number one TKI plus IO combination. The Checkmate 90R data continue to resonate with prescribers across the various clinical characteristics of RCC patients. The Cabo Medics business showed continued strength in the community setting, which is reflective of oncologists' comfort and experience with Cabo. With regard to NET, we are pleased that demand continues to grow and we see further penetration into the community setting. Cabo Medic's Second Line Plus new patient oral market share continued to increase and is now greater than 50%, extending the brand's leadership position in the space. We continue to see the benefit of more patients on therapy as refills are driving more demand and given the higher new patient market share, We expect residual to continue to increase going forward. Our expanded GI sales team has now been deployed in the field for a second full quarter, providing greater reach into the community. In addition to driving continued momentum and new patient market share, the team is increasing the breadth of prescribers with now over 1,000 unique net prescribers activated since launch. The CaboMedics business remains strong and many more. Our team's sole focus is maximizing the impact of our promotional efforts across all customers and tactics. HABA remains well positioned as the number one TKI and TKI plus IO combination in RCC, as well as the number one oral therapy in the second line plus net market. Looking forward to Zanza, our internal team is in full launch preparation and the excitement around these efforts is palpable. I look forward to the opportunity to launch the next Exelixis franchise to be able to help appropriate patients with colorectal cancer. Beyond Stellar 303, we are enthusiastic about the significant development plan for ZANSA, which could position the ZANSA franchise to far exceed CAVO in terms of the number of patients who could be impacted across similar types and settings. And with that, I will turn the call back over to Mike.
Mike Morrissey
President and Chief Executive Officer
All right, thanks, PJ. I'll close by thanking the entire Exalexis team for a strong first nine months of 2026. As we finish the year and look ahead to 2027, we're proud of our progress and focused on achieving more. It's a potentially transformational time for Exalexis, with Zanza taking center stage in development and commercial planning. We're proud to be part of one team United in Improving Outcomes for Cancer Patients and Building Value for Shareholders. Advancing Zanza as our second potential franchise remains our top priority, supported by revenues from CAVO's growing business as we invest in our pipeline and return value to shareholders through our share repurchase program. I want to thank everyone at Exalexis for their great focus and unwavering teamwork as we work together to advance our mission to help cancer patients recover stronger and live longer. We look forward to updating you on our progress in the future. Thank you for your continued support and interest in Xlexis. And we're happy to now open the call for questions.
Tawanda
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, to ask the question, please press star 11 on your telephone, then wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. We ask that you limit yourself to one question only. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from the line of Annie Shea with William Blair. Your line is open.
Andy Shea
Analyst, William Blair
Great. Thanks for taking our question. Great performance overall across all the different business units. So congratulations on all the progress there. One bigger picture question, if you don't mind, can you comment on the 340B program? It seems like there is some evolution there and just how that would impact the obviously the existing Kappa franchise and also the NANZA going forward. Thanks.
Mike Morrissey
President and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, Andy, it's Mike. Yeah, there's a lot going on in the 340B world. It has, to our knowledge, very little impact on us, so we continue to have our integrity agreement in place. to make sure that we can track claims and reduce essentially double counting when it comes to other programs. But we're really on top of that, and our market access team is obviously very engaged there in doing the full court press across the board. But we're seeing that stabilize in the business, which is great to see, and we continue to, again, make it a focus as we go forward.
Tawanda
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Yaron Werber with TD Cohen. Your line is open.
Yaron Werber
Analyst, TD Cowen
Check to see if your line is on mute.
Tawanda
Conference Call Operator
Yaron, your line is open. All right, we'll move to the next person. One moment, please. Our next question comes from the line of Astika Gonwardhani with Lirik Partners. Your line is open.
Andrew Peters
Senior Vice President, Strategy and Investor Relations
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my questions and good to speak to you from the new platform. I just want to talk about the ZENZ-UP FDA discussions that are underway right now. Have you reached labeling discussion stage of the interactions with the FDA? Thank you.
Mike Morrissey
President and Chief Executive Officer
Ashoka, thanks for the question and great to hear from you again. Dan, I want to take that one.
Dana Aftab
Executive Vice President, Research and Development
Sure. Yeah. You know, beyond what I said in the prepared remarks around our PDUFA date now being in March next year, I'm, you know, for obvious reasons, I'm not going to speculate further on anything, especially regarding our interactions with the agency during an ongoing review.
Tawanda
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Akash Tiwari with Jefferies. Your line is open.
Andrew Peters
Senior Vice President, Strategy and Investor Relations
Hey, this is Manoj for Agass. Just two from our end. Are the overall and arm-specific adverse event-related dropout rates in Stellar 3 or 4 tracking in line with your original design assumptions? And also, you previously mentioned about five to eight-month median PFS in the control arm. Is that still unchanged given the delay in the readouts?
Mike Morrissey
President and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, you know, we had a hard time hearing you. I think the first question was around event rates and then the control arm estimates. Dana, why not? This is in 304.
Dana Aftab
Executive Vice President, Research and Development
In 304, yeah. Yeah, so thanks for the question. So first of all, I'm really excited about the 304 study. It represents the first phase three global randomized controlled trial for patients in this in this setting. So, you know, it really has the potential to not only establish a level one evidence-based standard of care for patients, but also to set new standards because, you know, all of the data right now that exist are from small single arm studies, regionally restricted studies. So, you know, just regarding our announcement today about the top line results being available in Q1, You know, we're not going to get into details around enrollment or event rates or anything like that other than to say that based on the events coming in, we're now close to a clinical cutoff date and that's driving our expectations around Q1 for the top line results.
Tawanda
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Sean Lawman with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
PJ Haley
Executive Vice President, Commercial
Hey, Mike and team. Hope everyone's well and congrats on the numbers.
Andy Shea
Analyst, William Blair
Just on 304, so there's been a bit of a delay there, but how large could non-clear cell RCC ultimately become within the broader Zanza franchise relative to CRC?
Mike Morrissey
President and Chief Executive Officer
Sean, thanks for that question. Great to hear from you. PJ, want to take that one?
PJ Haley
Executive Vice President, Commercial
Yeah, thanks for the question, Sean. You know, Dana mentioned we're really excited about the 304 study. particularly since it's the first randomized phase three to really look at this patient population. This population is about 20% of the renal cell carcinoma population. So we're excited about it, but I think it's important to note that when we think about all of our ZANSA studies, Dana talked about in wave one, this is actually the smallest of those. So our excitement for the program is really great. And I think the other thing we think about with regards to 304 is it's really just our first study in kidney cancer, which is obviously something we're very focused on. We have the two LightSpark studies with Merck ongoing, and, you know, I think we're very focused on other combinations with Zanza, as Dana referred to, with orthogonal MOAs. You know, if you look at the LightSpark 12 study being negative, which was reported at ESMO, that leaves an opportunity in the first line setting. So we're very much looking at that as a potential opportunity going forward. And, you know, we've been very successful, as I referred to in my remarks with Cobometics, you know, with our market share, et cetera, you know, being the market leader in the 20s. and our vision and our goal is to make ZANSA the market leader in the 30s and I think with the renal program, the GI program we're working on wave one and now the trials we're working on in wave two and beyond set us up very well to do that.
Tawanda
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Schmidt with Guggenheim. Your line is open.
Mike Morrissey
President and Chief Executive Officer
Oh, hey, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. I had another one on wave one ZANTA opportunity, this one in clear cell RCC. And I'm just trying to understand the size of the LightSpark 034 opportunity, which could be the first study to read out perhaps relative to Merck's LightSpark 011, which is similar in some ways. And then also on LightSpark 033, the other study, Yeah, I'm curious how you think about the recent adjuvant, both SUDIFUN approval and how that might impact that patient population. Thanks so much. Thanks, Michael. PJ, you want to take a shot at that?
PJ Haley
Executive Vice President, Commercial
Yeah, thanks for the question, Michael. You know, as I was just referring to, we're really excited about, you know, the ZANSA program broadly. You know, ESMO, lots of excitement and engagement with KOLs there about it, generally speaking. With regards to those LightSpark studies 33 and 34, LightSpark 33 is in the front line in the post-adjuvant setting, so more and more patients are receiving adjuvant therapy. As far as the LightSpark 22 study, we'll have to see how those data evolve with further follow-up and see what the impact of that is on the adjuvant setting, but I think generally speaking, with more options, you can only have more patients treated. and then certainly we're excited about light spark 34 or you know the design of that is adding Zanza to Belzudafan so I think you know in that sense it's a bit differentiated from some of the other studies out there and could really you know has the potential to have some good data and be impactful in the second line plus population in kidney cancer, which we've proven before with Meteor and beyond that you can have a very substantial business in that setting.
Tawanda
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Sylvan Turkin with Citizens. Your line is open.
Andrew Peters
Senior Vice President, Strategy and Investor Relations
Yeah, hello. Congrats on the great quarter with Cabo here, and thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to ask maybe if you can give us your ESMO 2026 kind of overview here, kind of what you thought wasn't exciting, or maybe the Cabo franchise in RCC and any learnings that you might have had from the failed light spark studies there, and maybe Evon Esimap, the bi-specific here that's coming late line, and then also have you learned anything at ESMO for ZANZA and colorectal where we had that CMAP ADC data from APPE in Lateline as well. Any call will be helpful. Thank you.
Mike Morrissey
President and Chief Executive Officer
Ah, Sylvain, yeah, thanks for the question. Great question, actually. So let's, PJ, Dana, why don't you guys tag team that one. PJ, why don't you start?
PJ Haley
Executive Vice President, Commercial
Yeah, thanks for the question, Sylvain. You know, certainly, and I was referring to it earlier, ESMO was a great meeting for us, really busy. Lots of discussions with KOLs, with investigators, both on the GU and the GI side, which is always, you know, rewarding as we've kind of continued to build these relationships. You know, the feedback we're hearing generally about, you know, the VANZA program, the excitement about it is, you know, is really a lot of excitement and very palpable as these studies are enrolled quickly and as we move closer to potentially to market with Stellar 303. Overall, from the data presented, I think there wasn't really a lot new there. in terms of impacting Cabo today. I think significantly we did see the data from LifeSpark 12, which we knew was negative, as I referred to earlier, which I think is providing basically the fact that there's an opportunity now in the broad first-line population with those triplets failing to have the potential to to have a regimen raise the standard of care beyond doublets in first-line RCC. So that's something we're very interested in and thinking a lot about in terms of our development plan.
Dana Aftab
Executive Vice President, Research and Development
Great. Dana? Yeah, so Sylvan, thanks for that question. You know, we were obviously at ESMO and tracking all the developments there very closely. And, you know, we feel that all the data coming out, especially on sort of some of the newer IO mechanisms, all of these are mechanisms that are orthogonal to xanthelitinib. It feeds right into our strategy for developing Zanza as the TKI of choice to really become the backbone of any IO combination across the spectrum of GU and GI and even in some indications outside of those key franchises. So from a development perspective, we're really focused on that aspect of evaluating any potential combination partner with vanzalitinib, and especially in wave two, we're considering lots of potential combinations there. So I'd say stay tuned, but we were certainly looking at those data.
Tawanda
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jason Gerberry with Bank of America Security. The line is open.
Jason Gerberry
Analyst, Bank of America Securities
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Just one on Stellar 304 and just a question on the protocol, which says, I think Pat's right that patients who drop out will continue to be followed for OS. And so I'm just trying to get a better sense of whether those patients would be censored or not for OS. If a lot of patients on suit and discontinue randomization, if they want to get on a PD1 TKI, I'm just wondering if that would at all be a factor confounding the OS analysis. So just wondering if you could comment on that protocol point. Thanks.
Dana Aftab
Executive Vice President, Research and Development
Yeah, so thanks for the question, Jason. This is Dana. You know, so regarding Stelios 304, as I mentioned, we're excited about this because of the opportunity to deliver the first level one evidence for these patients and, you know, patients with high unmet need without any type of Thank you.
Tawanda
Conference Call Operator
Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Gregory Renza with Truist Securities. Your line is open.
PJ Haley
Executive Vice President, Commercial
Hi, guys. It's Anish on for Greg. Congrats on the quarter, and thanks for taking our questions. Just on CABO and NETS, I know you guys gave some color on the call with oral plaster now above 50%, but we wanted to know how starts and time on therapy are translating into patient accumulation. relative to last quarter and perhaps your previous expectations, and what is the maintained revenue guide assumed for that build in the fourth quarter? Thanks so much.
Mike Morrissey
President and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks for the question. PJ, want to take that one?
PJ Haley
Executive Vice President, Commercial
Yeah, thanks for the question. You know, as you mentioned, referred to in our prepared remarks, we're really excited and pleased with the business with regards to our net indication. We had, you know, continued demand growth. and as you referred to now our new patient market share in that second line plus oral setting is now over 50% which is great and obviously you know we're seeing continued refills and with increased patients on therapy we expect to see more continued refills going forward you know we talked about you know last quarter the the kinetics of patients coming on therapy that's just really a function of the disease you know it continues to be but I think the flip side of that more indolent nature of the disease is that you tend to have really strong duration of therapy in the net setting so we're pleased with that and we see continued strength and growth going forward with the net business.
Tawanda
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Leonid Temeshev with RIBC. Your line is open.
Leonid Timashev
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask on Steller 316 and maybe how you're thinking about expectations there. I mean, given that there's a Pembro arm and then a Zanza Pembro arm as well, how are you thinking about the relative signal that you might see between those two arms and then how physicians or how you'd envision physicians might want to choose if both are successful? Thanks.
Mike Morrissey
President and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks for the question. Dana, take that one.
Dana Aftab
Executive Vice President, Research and Development
Sure. Thanks, Leonid, for the question. Yeah, so, you know, the cohort design in STELR 316 is really designed to address contribution of components. So, you know, this is in a microsatellite-stable population of CRC patients, so there really isn't an expectation of PEMBRO alone being active. We could see activity of vanzalitinib as a single agent, but certainly and then Pembro plus Zanza, we expect to perform the best, obviously. So it really just comes down to the data. We can't really speculate on data we haven't seen. But once those data come out, that will really help drive adoption of, you know, either single agent Zanza or Zanza plus Pembro. But again, we can't get ahead of ourselves and try to game, you know, the potential readouts from those various cohorts.
Tawanda
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Kalpit Patel with Wolf Research. Your line is open.
Mike Morrissey
President and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, hey, good afternoon and thanks for taking the question. With Cabo sales growing about 6% quarter-to-quarter and the continued momentum you have in net, I guess, can you comment on the decision to maintain the guidance for fiscal year 26? and does the guidance include any impact potentially from the LightSpark 011 regimen? Thank you.
Chris Senner
Chief Financial Officer
Chris? All right. Thanks, Kalpit. So, you know, thanks for the question. You know, as you heard from PJ today, you know, the business is doing really well. You know, as you heard from Dana today, the pipeline continues to grow. So, you know, the business continues to be strong. But, you know, as we talked about last quarter, When we adjusted our revenue guidance down, it was because of the temporal nature of the net indication and the revenue growth associated with that. So, you know, and that continues today.
Tawanda
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Edsa Dorout with Barclays. Your line is open.
Yaron Werber
Analyst, TD Cowen
Thanks for taking a question. Just one quick one for me. Just curious, you're thinking about metastatic CRC versus, you know, adjuvant CRC. If you can maybe talk through the relative contribution you see longer term for zenzolitinib in an adjuvant CRC population relative to, you know, the metastatic CRC population would be great. Thank you.
PJ Haley
Executive Vice President, Commercial
Right. PJ? Yeah, thanks for the question, Etzer. You know, in terms of the metastatic setting, I think the main things we think about there are kind of, you know, the significant unmet medical need in that third line plus setting where we're bringing, you know, potentially bringing with approval the first IO plus TKI combination where, you know, many others have failed in this setting. So that's exciting. Patients and physicians are very much looking forward to the opportunity to have access to immunotherapy in that broader CRC population. As I mentioned, that's 23,000 patients in the U.S. and in current contemporary pricing dollars, about a $1.5 billion TAM. Now, you know, in terms of that, you know, post-adjuvant population, the stellar 316 population, it's a very exciting study, as Dana referred to it, you know, area of significant unmet medical need. You know, these patients, studies have shown, who have, you know, this increase in circulating tumor DNA, you know, sadly their disease is recurring very quickly, you know, six to eight months. So with the opportunity to potentially prolong that disease-free survival, that would be highly meaningful and clinically meaningful to these patients. And they could be on therapy for quite some time. So it's a significant population there and a potential significant patient impact. But as Dana said, we'll have to really wait to see the data there.
Tawanda
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Liebowitz with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Mike Morrissey
President and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you very much for taking my question. I have a question actually on guidance specifically, and I apologize if I missed it earlier. What's happening with the effective tax rate in the fourth quarter that's led to the shift in guidance, and how should we look at that going forward after the fourth quarter?
Chris Senner
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, thanks, David. So, you know, every year, you know, The month's turn and you get past your tax return filing in October and you're able to essentially take into your tax rate items that you had reserved for in prior periods. And we did that this year. We did that last year. I would say that we're not giving guidance longer term, but our longer term expectation is tax rate will be at the federal rate or thereabouts.
Tawanda
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ash Verma with UBS. Your line is open.
Ash Verma
Analyst, UBS
Oh, hi. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask about the ZANZA launch opportunity in CRC. So it seems like in earlier line CRC, there's quite a bit of activity. We saw the paracetamab plus chemo data from GenMab, Adesmo, and there are a few upcoming PD-1 VEGF agents that have data as well. When you think about these programs in earlier line, could that change the 23,000 addressable patient population that you outlined for ZANZA as an opportunity? Thanks.
PJ Haley
Executive Vice President, Commercial
Yeah, thanks for the question, Ash. You know, I think the patients are there as it is, and I think, you know, folks are really excited to have the opportunity, as I mentioned, for this potential regimen to be approved. We're excited about it, and as I mentioned, physicians and patients are excited about it, and it's sizable. We have the opportunity to really leverage the capabilities we've built with Cabo Medics over the last decade. We have a strong presence and focus in the community setting, and the majority of colon is treated in the community setting. And as I mentioned, we have... Prescriber overlap estimated with our CRC targets with regards to Cabo Medics of about 70%, and it goes to 90% if you include the same addresses. So the way we're looking at it, it's a very big opportunity, and we're excited to bring this to patients where there is a significant unmet medical need.
Tawanda
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Yaron Weber with TD Cohen. Your line is open.
Andrew Peters
Senior Vice President, Strategy and Investor Relations
Great. Thanks so much. Sorry about that before. Maybe just a couple of questions.
PJ Haley
Executive Vice President, Commercial
The first one is, with the ARC-20 data being presented at ESMO, it showed a really favorable 15-month PFS and 44% ORR with Cascavo in second line. What do you draw from that data, both as potential Impact, maybe even a tailwind on Cabo and Second Line with longer duration of therapy in RCC, or potentially to DeBell, Cabo, and Frontline. And then secondly, for the next slew of Wave 1 studies with ZENSA, can you give us maybe just a little bit of a view of what dose of ZENSA are you testing?
Andy Shea
Analyst, William Blair
Are you going down to 60 megs as a starting point? Thank you.
Mike Morrissey
President and Chief Executive Officer
Okay, so let's parse that out. PJ, you want to start with the first one?
PJ Haley
Executive Vice President, Commercial
Yeah, thanks for the question, Yaron. You know, I think with regards to the data, it's obviously early data, and there's multiple combinations there. I think, you know, simply put, if there's a positive study that includes Cabo in the regimen, we would, you know, certainly be excited about that. And obviously, you know, a positive study and an approval could provide, you know, incremental opportunity for Cabo in the space.
Dana Aftab
Executive Vice President, Research and Development
Yeah, and sorry, this is Dana. I was just regarding your question on dose. A lot of work goes into selecting dose for a trial based on extensive modeling from the perspective of exposure response, looking at either tumor response or safety. And we really have to look at each indication separately based on what combination partner we're using, what's the tumor indication, what line of therapy. So, you know, I can't tell you right now what the different doses are and, you know, it really depends on each individual case and situation.
Tawanda
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Andy Shea with Wimbledon. Your line is open.
Andy Shea
Analyst, William Blair
Thanks for taking the follow-up. Just a quick one for stellar 002 in the bladder cancer post-PAD-7 PEMBRO. Very interested in the new and growing opportunity. I'm just curious about, you know, what is the standard of care there, just given the rapidly evolving field there, and what is the clinical efficacy bar? And then maybe another one with XL0558, the oral SSTR2, just given the different mechanism, small molecule versus peptide. Curious if you could tell us about your TPP versus the injectables out there. Obviously, the injection site reaction might go away, but any other things that you're looking for, just given the different way of antagonizing that receptor? Thank you.
PJ Haley
Executive Vice President, Commercial
Great. PJ? Yeah, I can start with the bladder piece, Andy. I think, obviously, EVPEM, great data there. It's done very well for patients with Static Bladder Cancer and you know I think Dana alluded to we're very excited about you know looking at ZANs in that space and that cohort is enrolling well it's really you know it's kind of a new data-free zone so you know that's a great opportunity to pursue from a development perspective and and, you know, folks that are just getting typically, you know, different single-agent chemo or chemo regimens, but again, those are just older therapies that they're using because they've been approved, you know, for some time.
Jason Gerberry
Analyst, Bank of America Securities
Okay.
Dana Aftab
Executive Vice President, Research and Development
Yeah, and this is Dana. Just to opine on that a little further, you know, EVP is really being used a lot in the adjuvant setting as well, in the muscle and basis setting, and there was some new data presented at ESMO on another regimen there, so you know EVP or IO EV is moving earlier and earlier creating a lot of opportunity both in the frontline setting post adjuvant therapy as well as in the metastatic setting so as I mentioned in my earlier remarks we've seen that there's a tremendous unmet need for these patients this is one of the fastest enrollments we've ever seen in a phase one cohort which really kind of validates that that these patients really have nothing out there So we're doing everything we can to address that need with some really innovative ideas using, again, using ZANZA as a backbone for either combinations or as a single agent. Okay, thank you.
Tawanda
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, there are no further questions. And so I will turn the call over to today's host, Andrew Peters. Mr. Peters?
Andrew Peters
Senior Vice President, Strategy and Investor Relations
Thank you, Tawanda, and thank you all for joining us today. We welcome your follow up calls with any additional questions you may have that we were unable to address during today's call. Have a great rest of the week.
Tawanda
Conference Call Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.