FLNG Flex LNG Ltd.
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Flex LNG Ltd. Q3 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript
AI Conference Call Analysis
Sign in or subscribe to read.Marius Foss
CEO
Welcome back to Flex LNG third quarter result presentation. My name is Marius Foss, I'm the CEO of Flex LNG and today I'm joined by our CFO Knut Traaholt who will take you through the financials later in the presentation. Today we will cover Q3 results, give you an update on the LNG market and as always conclude the earnings presentation with a Q&A session.
Knut Traaholt
CFO
If you'd like to ask a question, please use the chat function in the webcast or send questions by email to ir.flexlng.com. And before we begin, a quick attention to our disclaimer. Today we will be using some non-GAAP measures such as TCE, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income. These are supplements to the earnings report reported in accordance with US GAAP and the reconciliations of these are available in the report. As there are limitations to the completeness of today's presentation, we encourage you to read the quarterly report together with the presentation. And with that, over to you, Marius.
Marius Foss
CEO
Thank you, Knut. Let's begin with the highlights of the quarter. We are happy to present our strongest third quarter results ever. We sailed in revenues of $97 million or $95 million, excluding the EUAs. The fleet average TCE during the quarter ended up to close to $79,000 per day. Net income for the third quarter came in at $42.8 million, implying an earnings per share at 79 cents. Adjusting for the analyzed gain of interest rate swaps and FX, we ended up with an adjusted net income of $35 million or adjusted earnings per share of 65 cents. Flex Artemis and Flex Volunteer continue to contribute our solid quarterly results with strong spot market earnings. Today we are pleased to announce a new financing and amended terms under existing financing for two hour vessels. The lease financing of the Flex Artemis and the Flex Amber have been amended by reducing the margins and extending the repayment profiles. For the Flex Enterprise, we announced today that we have signed a new sale and lease back financing at very attractive terms. Our CFO will provide more details on this financing later in the presentation. We maintain our full year guidance from the previous quarter end and based on the strong third quarter results, solid financial position and contract backlog, the board has declared another dividend of 75 cents per share. This is the 21st consecutive dividend of 75 cents per share, and we have now distributed over $900 million since 2021, including special dividends. Our last 12 months dividend is $3 per share, implying a dividend yield of around 11.5%. Looking at our total contract coverage, we have 48 years of minimum firm backlog, which may grow to 75 years if all options are declared. In the near term, we have Flex Volunteer in the spot market into Q1 next year, while the Flex Artemis remain available. In addition, the two vessels trading the spot market, we expect to have the Flex Ranger back in Q1 next year. We are marketing this vessel for both spot and new contract terms. The current charter of the Flex Freedom has the option to extend beyond the firm period. This option is due later in the quarter. Our full year guidance presented earlier this year was revenues between 345 to 370 million dollars, a TCE between 73 and 78 thousand dollars per day and adjusted EBITDA between 255 and 280 million dollars. With one and a half month left of the year and the current spot market, we expect the full year result to come in to the mid to the lower end of our guidance. Let's have a look at the dividend and decision factors. On the back of the strong quarter results, the Board have declared a dividend of 75 cents per share for the third quarter. The dividend will be paid out 10th of December for shareholders on record of 27th of November. On the decision factors, we maintain the orange level for market outlook. This reflects a soft spot market and heavy schedule of new building deliveries during the next year to come. Confidence in the long-term structural demand story remain in full, supported by the third wave of US LNG export capacity currently under construction. We have changed backlog and visibility to orange level due to having two vessels in the spot market and potentially more spot exposure from next year. We keep other considerations in orange given the continued elevated geopolitic risk This is still uncertainty around the duration of the conflicts in the Middle East and the timing of normalization of the Qatari supply. With this, over to you Knut for the financial results.
Knut Traaholt
CFO
Thank you Marius and let's have a look at the key financial highlights for the quarter. Third quarter revenues are our strongest ever. The revenues for the quarter were 97.4 million, or 95.2 million, excluding E-rays. The decrease compared to the second quarter was mainly related to the flex volontaire, which traded on a higher spot rate for the majority of the previous quarter. That decrease was partly offset by no off-hire days related to the dry dockings in the quarter. On the cost side, OPEX for the quarter was 19.5 million, equivalent to OPEX per day of about 16,300. The average OPEX per day for the first nine months is close to 16,200, and our previous full year guidance was $16,000 per day. Today we update the full year OPEX guidance per day to 16,200. The increase is driven by, among others, higher costs related to travel and crew changes following the conflict in the Middle East. On a quarterly basis, the interest rate expenses is fairly stable. However, compared with the first nine months of the year, we now see significant reductions reflecting our refinancing initiatives and active management of our RCF facilities. We booked 10.2 million in gains on our interest rate derivatives of which 2.4 million was realized gains and 7.7 million was unrealized gains. Net income came in at 42.8 million or 79 cents per share and adjusting for non-cash items like unrealized gains from the interest rate derivative portfolio the adjusted net income was 35 million and adjusted earnings per share of 65 cents. Overall this was a very strong quarter impacted by high revenues from the spot market activity, no off-hire days and continued cost controlled and improved financing efficiencies. During the quarter we generated strong cash flow from operations of 56 million down from 63 million in the second quarter. The decrease was mainly driven by lower revenues as explained on the previous slide. and this includes 13 million in negative change in working capital. The increase in receivables during the quarter was related to the timing of advanced charter hire payments. We repaid 28 million in scheduled debt installments and distributed 41 million to our shareholders. In sum, that left us with 371 million of cash at the end of the quarter. Looking at our balance sheet, We maintain a robust and clean balance sheet with mainly chips and approximately 370 million in cash. Our debt financing comprises a combination of bank loans which gives us flexibility and attractive long-term leases. Our interest rate swap portfolio is unchanged and was valued at 30 million at the end of the third quarter. The notional value of the portfolio is 775 million dollars with an average fixed rate of 2.46%. We expect to maintain a net hedge ratio of around 70 to 75% into mid next year. The book equity ratio is reversed to 28%, and as noted before, our book values reflect historical costs adjusted by regular depreciations. Today, we are also pleased to announce the refinancing on Flex Enterprise with the new Jolko lease and amendment of the lease financing for the Flex Artemis and the Flex Zambro. With these transactions, we continue to optimize our funding and reduce the cost of debt. We expect to free up approximately 34 million in liquidity from the new Jolko and the transaction is expected to be closed in the fourth quarter. The new lease comes with a very attractive blended cost of debt of so far plus 25 basis points and addresses one of the 2029 debt maturities. On the Flex Artemis and the Flex AM release, we are cutting the margins significantly from 250 basis points to 140 basis points. Furthermore, we extend the repayment profile and reduce the quarterly repayments for the two ships from $4.3 million to $3.5 million per quarter. We are grateful for the trust and support from our financing partners, both the new incoming and the ones that have provided previous financing for the Flexed Enterprise. And with that, I hand it back to you, Marius, for the market section.
Marius Foss
CEO
Thank you very much, Knut, and congratulations for the new financing. Let's have a look at the markets. Global energy trade volumes are close to flat this year, down only 2% compared to the same period last year. On the supply side, the key development remains the significant reduction of the Qatari exports, down around 45 million tonnes or close to 65%. This shortfall has to a large extent been offset by strong growth and high utilization from the US, where exports are up 20% or close to 80 million tonnes. We continue to see growth from both Australia and Russia and in addition other exporters have contributed strongly and are up 30 million tons from last year. These includes LNG Canada but also West Africa exporters such as the Nigeria. On the demand side far is cut back on LNG imports as JKM spiked. Europe are down compared to last year and storage levels remain very very low. At the same time India and other importing markets such as Egypt has continued to grow. Egypt is now one of the largest importers of US LNG. The key takeaway is that despite of significant reduction from one of the world's largest LNG exporter Qatar, global trade volumes have remained resilient. and more importantly for shipping, this growing share of US supply means more LNG coming from the Atlantic Basin. This will likely have a positive ton-mile effect if these volumes move into Asia. Let's look closer to the supply side. The reduction of Middle East volumes has been significant. Combined exports from Qatar and the UAE are currently down around 65% compared to normal levels. As you can see on the left, exports dropped very sharply early in the year, and while volumes have started to recover, they remain far below historical levels. Today's volumes, we see export intra-basin and exiting via Strait of Hormuz to go outside to Oman for a ship-to-ship transfer. At the same time, the US have continued to ramp up the LNG production. U.S. liquefaction capacity is up around 18 million tons so far this year, or 20%, supported by the ramp-up of new capacity, particularly from plucky mines. In addition, we see that Golden Pass volumes are slowly but steadily entering the market. This strong U.S. growth continues to mitigate the loss of volumes from the Middle East. Let us have a look at the demand side and the competition between Europe and Asia for U.S. exports. Europe's gas inventories have remained low through the year and are today at 73% full, the lowest level in almost 15 years and below the EU thresholds. This increases Europe's reliance on LNG supplies to meet peak seasonal demand and could leave the region particularly exposed for cold snaps and supply disruptions. US LNG is highly flexible and can move between Europe and Asia depending on the relative pricing. Looking at the chart to the left, there has been historical seasonal competition of US export between the two regions. So far this year, Asia have attractive additional US volumes, while Europe has stayed close to flat compared to 2025. This is reflected in the low European storage levels. We are now facing the tug of war between Asia and Europe for US volumes during the upcoming winter. The tide supply, this is evident in the current high natural gases. Let us move on to the gas to the spot market for the modern two strokes tonnage. In the third quarter, we saw increasing vessels availability both in west and east of Suez, and that is now putting pressure on the spot market. As we move into the winter season, we have started to see indications of seasonal tightening with fewer vessels available and a gentle increase in the spot rates. However, the historical seasonal winter market has not yet materialized. We have one vessel trading in the spot market which are exposed to the positives and negatives from the near-term shipping markets. The soft spot market comes at the time when the LNG fleet is growing. As we can see in the chart on the left side, the order book remains material with around 290 vessels to be delivered going forward, equivalent to roughly 35% of the existing fleet. This year, we had a substantial addition to the fleet and we expect next year to be impacted by new building deliveries. However, most of the vessels are already tied up by Qatar and other long-term projects. During the summer, we passed a milestone where more than half of the existing fleet today are now modern two-stroke vessels. Despite Korean new building prices at around $245 million per ship, term rates at moderate levels, ordering of new buildings remains strong. We have seen 77 new buildings being contracted so far this year. A number of these vessels are now contracted speculatively. The speculative orders tell us that there is significant confidence in the long-term LNG shipping market going forward. This year's orders are well above the last year's figure of 35 vessels in total. At the same time, high new building prices continue to provide support for the value of modern existing tonnage, including our fleet. On the next slide we will highlight some of the most significant LNG export volumes expected to come into the market next year. From next year we will finally see some first material US export capacity ramping up. Golden Pass has already started exporting volumes from train 1 and train 2 and 3 are coming on stream next year. Note that 70% of these volumes are contracted by Qatar Energy and is likely to be transported on their own ships. In the second half of the year, we expect to see significant ramp up of the three major projects. Port Arthur, Rio Grande and Venture Global CP2 are expected to be nameplate capacity for close to 40 million tons per year in production. We expect these volumes to gradually ramp up and that will add additional requirements for tonnage. In addition to these volumes, we have new LNG coming from Australia, Nigeria and Canada, also expected to enter the market next year. Although dependent on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, it's also worth mentioning that the first train in Qatar's North Field East project is expected first half next year. All these 2027 and 2028 volumes entering the market support future LNG shipping. With that, let's turn over to the Q&A session. Thank you, Marius.
Knut Traaholt
CFO
And thank you all for submitting questions through the webcast and our IR email. And let's kick off with the topic on the market. We have a couple of questions regarding Q4 and also 2027. We are highlighting here the projects that come on stream, in particular for the second half of the year. But there are more questions on other factors that you see can impact and more shipping demand in Q4 and next year.
Marius Foss
CEO
Thank you. That's a very good question. I wish I had the crystal ball so I can tell everybody what's going to happen in the next 12 to 18 months. But it's for sure going to be a choppy year going forward and the expectations are fairly low for the shipping of LNG. However, if you saw five years ago, we saw a similar situation where the market was very bearish in expectations of new buildings coming into the market. At the same time, we saw one of the best shipping year for Two Strokes ever, where we saw the arbitrage open during the coming year. I think it's also a few other X-factors we should mention that could change the spot market on the near term. And we have our friend Super Nino, who's been knocking on the door and expected to be in full force in 2027. We will have very mild and very hot weather, normally followed by a cold snap, which will increase both the cooling season and also the heating season. We also seen that Panama have reduced the number of daily transit going forward because of the heat in El Niño. So that's one of the part and also I think that we should mention that the Russian gas will be sanctioned by Europe after January 1st. So that gas cannot come into Europe from January 1st. That means that we need to find supply elsewhere. And given that the European storage levels are still on the low, and Russian can supply gas from January, That could have an impact over a stronger shipping market with supply from the US. Also, as you mentioned in the presentation, we will have more volumes coming in next year from the US. I expect there will be more shipping term requirements entering next year. And also that when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, we expect that the Qatari fleet trading in the worldwide market today will probably go back to the market where they belong. So there are a few X factors that could change the next 12 months or so. We also have a lot of new buildings coming at the same time, so we need to balance this out. But if we see that the Strait of Hormuz reopen next year, we also expect that the scrapping activity on the old autonomous will automatically kick in, which we need to balance the markets.
Knut Traaholt
CFO
And there are some questions there on Qatar and the Strait of Hormuz. First of all, it's our fleet and trading in that area. The question relates to do we have ships on the inside or are we trading there? And the second part is related to the opening and normalization of Qatar supply. Do you have any insight on opening there?
Marius Foss
CEO
Yeah, thank you for that. Now we have similar question on the last presentation. The Charter who have flexed tonnage on Charter, they have other markets that they are instructing and ordering our vessels to trade. So neither of the 13 ships that we have has been transiting the Strait of Hormuz or have been inside since the invasion end of February. And we are very happy that we have been able to trade safe and not been exposed for that. As I said, if and when the Qatar supply will be back on the normal, exiting through the Strait of Hormuz, we expect at least the Qatari tonnage will disappear from the spot market. And also, as I said, scrapping will pick up again for steamers and maybe first-generation tri-fuels that are now doing ship-to-ship shuttle traffic in this area. So we are hoping that the Strait of Hormuz will open soon.
Knut Traaholt
CFO
Then we have a couple of questions related to our financings that we have announced today and also about our next step maturity in 2029 when that will be addressed. As always if we find attractive opportunities to refinance the debt We will act earlier than scheduled. The 2029 maturity is still a bit early to address, but if there are attractive opportunities, we will act on it. We have also some questions about the dividend and guidance on future dividends. We have had that questions in the past as well. We don't guide on dividends. It's a decision that are made by the board at each quarter. We are fairly transparent on the decision factors and today we have downgraded one element to it, but at the same time this is balanced to the revenue visibility we have, the backlog, but also our financial position and debt maturities and capex liabilities. For the next 12 to 18 months we don't have any capex dry dockings after the 10-year dry docking in 2028 and our depth maturity is in the 2029. So on the total we will have to make a new decision and evaluate these decision factors when we are done with the fourth quarter and ready for the fourth quarter presentation in February. That concludes most of the questions.
Marius Foss
CEO
Perfect. Thank you Knut and thank you everybody for attending our Q3 presentations. We are looking forward to welcome you back to Q4 presentation in February. Thank you.