FLUT Flutter Entertainment plc
$81.79
Flutter Entertainment plc Q3 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript
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Operator
Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us and welcome to Flutter Entertainment third quarter 2026 earnings call. After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question and answer session. If you would like to ask your questions, please press star 1 to raise your hand. To withdraw your questions, press star 1 again. I will now hand the conference over to Paul Tymms, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Paul Tymms
Director of Investor Relations
Hi everyone and welcome to Flutter's Q3 update call. With me today are Flutter CEO Dan Taylor and CFO Rob Coldrake. After this short intro, Dan will set out his immediate priorities alongside the operational progress we made in Q3. Rob will then share an overview of our Q3 financials as well as updated details on our outlook. We will then open the lines for Q&A. Some of the information we are providing today, including our 2026 guidance, constitutes forward-looking statements that involve risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual outcomes or results to differ materially from those indicated in these statements. These factors are detailed in our earnings press release and our SEC filings. In addition all forward-looking statements are based on current expectations and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement except as required by law. Also in our remarks or responses to questions we will discuss non-gap financial measures. Reconciliations are included in the results materials we have released today available in the investors section of our website and I will now hand you over to Dan.
Dan Taylor
Chief Executive Officer
Thank you Paul, good morning everyone and thank you for joining us. I'm pleased to be speaking with you all for the first time as CEO of Flutter and for this opportunity to set out my initial thoughts and priorities. I'm now almost five weeks into my role as CEO but having worked at Flutter and in the industry for many years I know the business well. Building on my experience in international markets I've spent a lot of time in the US with the FanDuel team over the last five months. I've been really impressed with the team on the ground and the time I've spent with the business has been critical in helping me determine our immediate priorities. Across Flutter, we have a portfolio of fantastic brands, unmatched in our category around the world. We have exceptional talent with deep sector expertise and a set of amazing products our customers love. We've built global leading scale over the last five years, but we will be more demanding of the benefits this can deliver. We need to simplify how we operate and move faster. and we need to remove costs so that we can invest more in the right areas that benefit our customer proposition and the opportunities that best position us for growth in the long term. Our Q3 performance shows that the actions we've already taken are the right ones. While sports results went against us, underlying performance in the US was ahead of expectations and in international we delivered market share gains in our core markets. I have four immediate operational priorities which will require clear leadership and tough decisions. We will remain disciplined in our investments, focused on improving our cash flow conversion and deleveraging the balance sheet. My first priority is to build on our US leadership position. I strongly believe we have the best assets to capture the North American opportunity which still has a very long runway of growth ahead. but we need to operate at pace and deliver relentless product innovation while investing with discipline where we see long-term opportunities. The US market is highly competitive but our decisive actions to increase share of wallet by returning more to customer and to accelerate our product roadmap are beginning to pay off delivering market share gains in August and September. I am confident we are taking the right decisions to deliver FanDuel's long-term success. I believe sportsbooks offer a superior proposition versus prediction markets and our consumer research and customer analysis continues to support this conclusion. We are, however, beginning to see an impact on our media costs as prediction market operators increase their spend. The duration of this trend will depend in part on how the regulatory landscape develops. We need to continue investing behind the Found Your Brand in a disciplined way, maintaining competitive levels of marketing intensity. Over the last four years, we have transformed FanDuel Casino from a distant third place into the market leader. We must now ensure we maintain our laser focus on our customer proposition. Player engagement in Q3 was strong. However, revenue growth was impacted by competitive dynamics and market moderation as the US iGaming states move through the maturity curve. Looking forward, the potential for new states to regulate iGaming provides very significant upside. As evidenced by our very strong launch in Alberta in July, we have already achieved more than 20% market share across Q3, significantly surpassing our launch in Ontario. Second, prediction markets represent a very meaningful incremental opportunity for FanDuel. We must build a strong position now, investing with discipline and maintaining flexibility to adapt quickly as regulation develops. In the last few months, the FanDuel Predicts product has been transformed and we're just getting going. The changes have been enabled by our integration onto crypto.com and delivery of our FanDuel one app solution leveraging the core sports code base and experience. While we always have more work to do our product is now genuinely competitive. Our customers are responding very well with retention of frequency metrics already 80 to 85 percent of OSB and we have a clear pipeline of further improvements from here. We will leverage the nationwide strength of the FanDuel brand to acquire customers, and we can now service existing customers nationwide. We are investing at a level that we believe will position us well for the long term, balancing the need to operate at scale in targeted states against the regulatory uncertainty in this space. Initial trading volumes are encouraging, almost trebling in October when compared with July, reflecting our accelerated product roadmap. The behaviour of the customers we require look like typical sportswear customers, giving us confidence in their long-term value. We're also using our leading expertise in pricing sports events to participate as a market maker and help fund our prediction market acquisition spend. We're making excellent progress here and we're on track to deliver our market making guidance for 2026. Third, in international we have built a portfolio of regional powerhouses with number one positions in many of the world's largest regulated markets. Our scale allows us to invest in better products and customer experiences while our diversified business delivers resilient growth when individual markets face regulatory or economic change. My immediate focus is on delivering continued product improvements and customer experiences to drive consistent execution, sustained growth and further market share gains. We've made good strategic progress during the quarter, with market share gains in the UK and Ireland, Italy and across CEE. Our successful integrations in Italy, UKI and PokerStars are unlocking meaningful revenue upside and cost benefits. We're taking share in Italy on the back of an advantage product and having delivered this into SNAI, we see plenty of further upside to come. In the UKI, we saw strong double-digit gaming growth on the back of record engagement during the World Cup. and we believe our recently announced restructuring right sizes the business going forward, persisting as well to take market share gains in the post-tax environment by protecting our investment in the customer. We were clearly very disappointed with the government provisional measure banning online sports betting and gaming in Brazil. With the right regulation, Brazil could still be an attractive market. However, the level of uncertainty and the already challenging regulatory environment that developed prior to the ban mean we're taking a cautious view of the outlook at this point in time, determining the non-cash write-down recorded in our Q3 results. Following the ban, we have acted decisively. We took immediate steps to restructure our business to focus on Bet Nationale as our sole brand in Brazil and are ready to resume operating if and when the market returns. Despite the regulatory challenges we have faced over the last 12 months, I feel very confident that our diversified international portfolio is now well set to leverage the transformations and cost efficiencies we have delivered, to take full advantage of our global scale, to continue to take market share and deliver against our target of 5-10% annual growth. Fourth, simplifying our operating model. The next phase of Flutter will be more streamlined to maximise the benefits of scale and ensure we can do non-customer facing work once. This will help us remove complexity, move faster, reduce costs and improve cash generation allowing us to invest organically in the areas that deliver the highest returns whilst also deleveraging the balance sheet. In addition to our existing international cost transformation and UK gaming tax mitigation programmes We expect to deliver an additional 500 million in gross operating cost and capital expenditure savings by 2029. And the work to deliver this is well underway. In the US, these efficiencies create the room to invest behind our next stage of growth. Internationally, we expect these benefits to support our previously projected long-term 5-10% growth while helping protect adjusted EBITDA margins through regulatory and tax changes. Looking ahead, I am encouraged by the momentum we are building. We're making deliberate choices to secure FanDuel's long-term success. In international, consistent execution and further scale benefits should enable continued profit growth despite regulatory pressures. Realising the full potential of Flutter's exceptional set of assets and opportunities will require hard choices, faster decisions and strong execution. I know confidence is earned through delivery and that is what I'm focused on. While I'm only five weeks into my new role, I'm already clear on my immediate operational priorities. I look forward to sharing more on our strategy alongside our Q4 results in February. And with that, I'll now turn it over to Rob to talk you through the financials and outlook.
Rob Coldrake
Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Dan. And hello, everyone. I'll cover three areas today. Q3 results, balance sheet and capital allocation, and our updated guidance and outlook. Let me start with the Q3 results. US Sportsbook performance was ahead of expectations and we gained market share. In international, consistent execution and the benefits of our transformation programmes delivered share gains across core markets including UKI and SEA. This underlying momentum was partly offset by adverse sports results, resulting in group revenue growth of 2% in Q3. Adjusted EBITDA declined 25%. reflecting our investments in Alberta and prediction markets alongside higher UK gaming taxes partly mitigated through cost actions. While reported EBITDA was down this reflects deliberate investment and specific external factors rather than a deterioration in the underlying trajectory of the business. As Dan mentioned we have taken a prudent view on Brazil resulting in a non-cash impairment charge of 873 million dollars. This charge, together with an increase in legal loss contingencies, drove a reported net loss in Q3. Moving to the balance sheet, we ended Q3 with leverage of 4.6 times. While this is elevated, we expect to deleverage significantly through 2027 and remain committed to returning to our 2-2.5 times target range over the medium term. Our capital allocation priority is clear, continue to invest behind our highest return growth opportunities, deleverage the balance sheet and only then consider returning additional capital to shareholders. As a result, we've decided to pause the existing share repurchase program for the foreseeable future. Free cash flow, including financing capex and excluding player funds, improved by 22% year over year. We also successfully refinanced our revolving credit facility and term loan A, extending our debt maturity profile and providing additional financial flexibility at competitive rates. Now moving on to our updated guidance for 2026 and our early thinking about US investment into 2027. Q4 trading has been in line with our expectations on an underlying basis although sports results have been unfavorable in both the US and internationally. We have therefore updated our four-year guidance to reflect the unfavorable Q3 and Q4 sports results and the closure of Brazil partly offset by further cost actions. This reduces our full year group revenue midpoint guidance of $300 million to $17.61 billion and reduction in full year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $160 million to $2.495 billion. Additionally group transaction restructuring and integration costs will now be approximately 620 million dollars reflecting an increase of approximately 120 million from our previous expectations primarily due to the increase in legal loss contingencies. Additional detail on our 2026 guidance is available in today's release. Looking further ahead to 2027 in the US Improving customer trends and sportsbook performance give us confidence to continue reinvesting underlying growth into the customer proposition. Our promotional spend is expected to remain at similar levels in Q4 and throughout 2027, resulting in a broadly flat net revenue margin year over year. And at this early stage, we expect our 2027 marketing intensity to remain at the elevated levels we've observed for 2026. On prediction markets as Dan outlined we believe we are increasingly well positioned to capture this opportunity. We expect investment in this area to continue at similar or higher levels given the early momentum we are seeing. We also expect cost of sales as a percentage of revenue tracking at 58% for 2026 to remain at the same level in 2027. So while Q3 reported earnings were impacted by investment, sports results and some one-off items, I'm encouraged by the underlying trajectory of the business. We are improving the US proposition, continuing to invest behind our strongest growth opportunities and taking a disciplined approach to capital allocation and deleveraging. Together, these actions give us confidence that we are building a stronger and more valuable flutter for the long term. As usual we will give our full guidance for 2027 alongside our Q4 results in February and with that Dan and I are now happy to take your questions.
Conference Operator
Operator
We will now begin the question and answer session. Please limit yourself to two questions and ask both upfront. To ask your questions, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your questions, press star one again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimal sound quality. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Ed Young from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Ed Young
Analyst, Morgan Stanley
Hello. Two questions, please. First of all, thank you, Dan, for the initial strategic commentary you set out in the shareholder letter and your prepared remarks. Even though it's early, it's very useful framing. Could I ask you to give a bit more color on capturing the prediction markets opportunity? How do you see the relative importance of scaling on the B2C side versus, say, Thank you very much. Thank you for those. I'll take those in turn. So on the predict side, we've talked about three things. The first thing on the product side, which I think is really an important enabler, is being candid, the product when
Dan Taylor
Chief Executive Officer
I first went over to FanDuel in the spring was not competitive. I think the team have made tremendous progress on the product in the last few months and the pace of delivery has really really impressed me and the results we're seeing are very good. We obviously have one up live now It's really only been live at scale to customers since the start of the NFL season. The results we're seeing from that in terms of metrics around retention, frequency, it's starting to look a parlay percentage. It's starting to look a lot like our sports book in terms of those metrics. And we had about 140,000 actives on the platform in October. but look you're right in saying it's early days right and the it's hard to get the balance right in terms of the economics there we're acquiring a materially lower CPAs than our sports book and we can see a pathway to materially improving the LTVs as we go forward we've got our own FCM license now available to us which will be a step in the right direction there so there's lots of things we can do to keep improving the economics but they are uncertain and we need to be disciplined about the returns we get I think we're We're confident about better returns in states where we have a higher prospect of OSB. That gives us more certainty. But as the economics and the player behaviours start to evolve over the next few months, I think we'll get a clearer view on how much we can spend economically on the B2C side. We've only really been going for a couple of months in anger there. on the B2B side with market making this is really at the heart of Flutter's capabilities we've made great progress there we're now trading across multiple exchanges across multiple sports I think our ability on sort of the The complex parlays is a real differentiator for us. We're on track to deliver the guidance that we did and we've only really been live for obviously the second half of this year. So that's a really exciting near term revenue and profit generator. The B2C side is probably a longer term. We need to build leverage the brand for the long term franchise. On Italy, I'm pleased you asked that question. I think it's a it's a great if I look at when we acquired the snide business. One of my hypothesis was is it's an amazing brand. It's probably one of the iconic brands in Italy. But I think the product on it was poor. and I think that we have the very best product in the market on Seasal. The best sports, we have the best gaming products. I feel very good about it. We migrated the Snide product onto the SCA platform in the summer. You always have a bit of a drop in market share at the point of migration and we bounced back to the pre-migration levels faster than any migration we've ever done in Flutter's history. and I think the trajectory is very good from here so you know we we saw a bit of degradation prior to the migration which was on the old product it dropped at the point of migration bounced straight back and is now higher than it was pre-migration and it now has all the same product features capabilities and sort of drivers that has underpinned the C-cell strength so I'm very excited about where we take SNAI over the next 12-24 months and longer I think it's a I think it's a big opportunity for us.
Ed Young
Analyst, Morgan Stanley
Thanks very much.
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Brent Montour from Barclays. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Brent Montour
Analyst, Barclays
Good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking the question. So I want to follow up on the iGaming commentary. I think you said moving through the maturity curve. You guys obviously have a ton of international data and history with iGaming products. What does... The maturity curve look like to you when you look at your historical data sets? Does it feel like a market that can kind of bounce back to growth levels that we saw earlier this year? Or does it, you know, generally follow a pretty obvious curve there?
Dan Taylor
Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Brent. So if you look at Q3, I think the market grew about 13% on a GDR basis, which is below where we saw the growth in H1. And that doesn't hugely surprise us. We think that is, to your point, sort of consistent with this level of moderation in growth that we would expect for what are markets in these states that have been around for some time now. We have seen in international markets, you know, long-term growth at high single low double digits for the long term so I don't see that that wouldn't be the case here but we've um but you know we are seeing that moderation obviously for FanDuel we had some specifics in Q3 last year where we had a very strong uh release of a game which meant that we were lapping that which which put some pressure onto our comps um but look you know we feel very good about our competitive proposition uh and how we sort of you know The other thing I'd add on the gaming side is in the quarter we obviously went live in Alberta. Alberta is the first new gaming state. I know it's a Canadian province but for some time and The success there astounded us. Our pace of customer acquisition was materially faster than Ontario. We've reached 20% plus market share on the gaming side within the first quarter, which is already well ahead of where we thought we would be, particularly given there were existing grey market operators in that state beforehand. so I think the success in Alberta gives us real confidence and conviction about the opportunity for my gaming as we expand the town and obviously we're only penetrating from a town perspective 10% of the US population today and there's a lot more to play for there.
Brent Montour
Analyst, Barclays
That's really helpful and then a follow-up question on maybe for Rob on sports net revenue margin Looking for a number roughly flat year over year and it says, you know, you said reflecting continued promotional level. Can you just maybe double click on that? You know, if we think about promotional level at the exact same level, then, you know, you're not necessarily implying a lift in any structural margin from parlay mix. And so maybe that's not the right way to read that. And if you are going to have a slightly higher promotional spend annualizing what you did in the second half of 2020, 6. What kind of structural parlay lift would you need to see in 27 year-over-year to pay for that uplift in promotional spend? Hopefully that makes sense.
Rob Coldrake
Chief Financial Officer
That does make sense. Hi, Brent. So Yeah, we are seeing the net revenue margin when we look out to 2027 at the moment being relatively consistent. We've always said that we expect further parlay penetration over time and enhancing our structural gross win margins. And we expect that to continue. to continue in in 2027 if you think about levels of generosity in 2026 we deliberately upped our investment um from q2 onwards we're going to need to annualize that spend year on year which means that the promo cost goes up and that's how you kind of get back to a similar net revenue margin i think when you look out Longer term, I think we are confident that we can still grow the overall structural margins and the net revenue margin within the business. I think we see this as more kind of temporary to medium term, given some of the dynamics that we're seeing in the market at the moment.
Conference Operator
Operator
Great. That makes sense. Thanks, everyone. Your next question comes from the line of Barry Jonas from Tuist Securities. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Barry Jonas
Analyst, Truist Securities
Hey guys, thank you for taking my questions. Any early thoughts on potential implications from the U.S. midterm elections, whether that's OSBRI gaming legalization, further PM regulation, or really anything else that can impact you? Thank you.
Dan Taylor
Chief Executive Officer
Hi Barry, I'll take that. So obviously we were disappointed with the result in Nebraska, where the sort of The ballot didn't go in our favour, but I think we'll take something from that. When we look at the broader opportunities, I think we feel good about the prospect of future OSB and iGaming regulation over the coming years. We know that there's a need for the tax dollars and we know that We can deliver through regulation the protection for consumers that is required. And so without reminding us, we're slowly at half of the US with OSB and 10% from our gaming perspective. And I'm not going to try and tell you which states in which order, but we feel good coming through this that there is a strong pipeline of further state openings.
Barry Jonas
Analyst, Truist Securities
Great. And then just for a follow up, I just wanted to ask a little bit more about market making. Just given the early success you're seeing there, curious if you can give any thoughts on how big that business could ultimately get for Flutter and also how to think about the level of risks present around unfavorable sporting outcomes. Thank you.
Rob Coldrake
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, hi Barry, I'll pick that one up. I think as Dan said earlier, we're making really good progress with the market making piece. And I think with our expertise, particularly on correlated events, markets, parlays and complex products, we certainly see an advantage for us in this space. I think that at the moment, we're focusing on delivering our forecast for this year. we're still very confident that we'll deliver on the market making guidance that we set out at Q2 in terms of $50 million revenue being around circa $40 million EBITDA for this year and then we see that building next year we're not putting specific numbers on it at the moment we are working with more exchanges now and that will give some more opportunity but we're really pleased with the progress that we're making Thank you
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Jordan Bender from Citizens JMP. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Jordan Bender
Analyst, Citizens JMP
Hi, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for the question. you gave the original increase in marketing last quarter for the back half of this year you know the messaging was more around your customer acquisition activation in your prepared remarks you said you know some of the media costs that you're seeing or the media piece from prediction markets is basically intensifying the environment you know i'm just trying to understand has the investment spend that you guys laid out last quarter kind of turned from being more opportunistic for the company to more defensive just given what you've seen during the NFL season, and then Rob, maybe on the follow-up here, the share buyback program now paused. Is this kind of a conversation that we start to have once you get leverage back into the two to two and a half times range, or is there some sort of level where this discussion starts up again? Thank you.
Dan Taylor
Chief Executive Officer
Thanks Jordan. So I'll take the first one then Rob will pick up on the second here. The change that was communicated by the team in Q2 was an uplifting promotional spend. It wasn't a marketing dollar media spend. So the uplifting promo is something that we're really pleased with the response to. I think that's underpinned the improvements we've seen in amps, in frequency, in bet count and ultimately share of wallet and so I'm pleased with that and that's been a core part of the proposition the team have I think lent into that and done an excellent job and we expect therefore to continue that posture going forward that's brought us from a promotional spend in aggregate level broadly in line with the market. I think that is what sets us up for the long term to be at that posture. With regard to the market, the elevated marketing media cost, I think we have seen in Q3 this year in particular, elevated media spend across the category. and the thinking here about brand marketing, digital marketing, etc. That was as a category was up more than 60% year on year in September, up more than 50% more than year on year. in October primarily driven by investment from some of the predicts operators and candidly that does put pressure on asset costs it also puts pressure on some of our share of voice and we need to be disciplined about how we spend our marketing dollars but we also need to protect and grow our our brand reach and you know we're very lucky with the amazing brand that we have that We can amortize that spend across the whole country now. So there are two different points, I think, specifically just to be clear on the promo investment and then on how we're seeing the marketing environment in particular.
Rob Coldrake
Chief Financial Officer
with regards to the share buyback I think we've been quite clear about our capital allocation priorities in the short term and it will continue to allocate capital efficiently and where we see the highest returns at the moment there's lots of organic opportunity within the business to do that we're very focused on bringing the leverage down as we said it's it's 4.6 at Q3 we think we've got excellent free cash flow generation into 2027 and we will de-lever at pace and move back towards the quoted leverage range in a in a medium term I think as as and when we get there and you know I do realize that at the moment there is a compelling case for buybacks but our focus is definitely on the organic capital allocation and deleveraging and as of when we get back towards our quoted medium-term leverage ratio it's definitely something that's on our list we've always said that you know we will look at shareholder returns as well so it is something we'll continue to consider. Thank you very much
Conference Operator
Operator
As a reminder, we request that you ask both of your questions up front. Your next call is from the line of Bernie McTiernan from Needham & Company. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Bernie McTernan
Analyst, Needham & Company
Great. Thanks for taking the questions. Maybe first, just would love to talk about the sustainability of this U.S. acceleration growth and handle, and how you're thinking about retaining those gains. And then second, Can you talk about the early results from FanDuel Rewards and is the higher promotional activity that we're seeing right now concentrated in this program or is it beyond that in other areas as well too? Thank you.
Dan Taylor
Chief Executive Officer
I'll take the second one first I think so you know we're we launched the FanDuel rewards program to the full base from the start of the NFL season I think that's landed very well with our customers we've seen a seven percent uplift in perception of rewards and recognition from our FanDuel customers and that isn't just through the awards program but but that has clearly been a very important part of that I think beyond that we've been leveraging some of the smart promotions and capabilities we've had around the group we've got deep experience of how to deploy generosity from our different brands across the international business and we've been taking a lot of that capabilities into FanDuel to be really scientific and thoughtful about how we deliver it to the right customer at the right time as well so I'd say it's both of those things and it's clearly resonated very well with customers with regard to sort of Handle Uplift. I'm pleased to see the underlying customer momentum. I'm pleased to see the momentum in amps. I'm pleased to see the growth in bet count. We're seeing on average now each customer betting twice more per week. It's good to see that frequency improvement. It's testament to the share of wallet. I think there's further opportunities for us to grow that share of wallet. I'm not going to try and predict handle trends. Ultimately, we're focused on the revenue generation from the business. But look, I think we're pleased with the early signs from the changes the team have made and credit to the team for the way they've lent in and made those changes very quickly.
Rob Coldrake
Chief Financial Officer
and I think just to add to that point I think as we mentioned earlier I think we feel vindicated in terms of the investment that we laid out at Q2 and how that's working and we've definitely seen a stabilization of market share and so we've taken some market share into Q3 you know we've definitely built on the momentum off the back of the World Cup I think we're Seeing the levels of growth in the market that we anticipated at kind of mid-single digits on Sportsbook and that's something that we'd expect to continue into next year We'll obviously come back at Q4 and talk in more detail about our guidance for 2027 but it's important that we get a bit more of the key Q4 trading period under our belt as well with NFL in full flow and the NBA season having just kicked off just to understand where the momentum's taken us into next year. Great. Thank you both.
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question is from the line of Ian Moore from Bernstein. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Ian Moore
Analyst, Bernstein
Thanks for taking my question. Just picking up on that last thread on the NBA, viewership's been super strong so far this season, but there's been some pretty notable, I guess, star player injuries. How are you thinking about NBA handle this season and engagement versus last year, given that? And has player availability had any noticeable impact on parlay mix or hold?
Rob Coldrake
Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Ian. It's pretty early days on the NBA, as you know. I think there was some momentum held over from last year, where there's a really exciting end to the season and the Knicks win. So I think we started the season in a good place and there was some Thank you very much. we are seeing quite a competitive market in terms of player injury insurance and the products that are out there we've had some strong product offering in that in NFL and we continue to monitor that space as we go into the season Thanks, appreciate it
Conference Operator
Operator
In the interest of time, we ask that you limit yourself to one question moving forward. Thank you. Your next question is from the line of Robert Fishman from Robert Nathanson. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Robert Fishman
Analyst, MoffettNathanson
Hi, good morning. With increased costs for the media and marketing in the US that you've talked about, would you be reevaluating your go to market strategy and even willingness to work with some of the media partners like a fox in a different way? and if you could just comment on whether you're shifting more of your spend nationally away from the local state advertising market. Thank you.
Dan Taylor
Chief Executive Officer
I think the way we think about our brand spend is in a very disciplined way. I mean it's not going to be my job to decide the precise channel mix but we are very focused on delivering the right economic returns, the right paybacks and as media costs change you know of course we have to keep re-evaluating all of the assets that we have but you know we we see we still see good returns albeit as we've acknowledged the the competitive intensity is materially higher the costs therefore are under pressure in places and it's putting some of the pressure on some of the share of voice metrics so Thank you. Your next question is from the line of Dan Pulitzer from JP Morgan. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Dan Politzer
Analyst, JPMorgan
Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for the question. Uh, I just wanted to go back to, to kind of how you're thinking about the sports growth in the U S um, you know, if your net, your NGR margins are going to be flat there, obviously you're more reliant on handle growth from here, which I think is driven by that elevated promotional level. So I guess the question is how sustainable is this strategy and maybe how differentiated is it, especially as we enter an environment, which as you guys have said, it's an increasingly competitive.
Rob Coldrake
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, hi Dan. So as we said, we're not specifically guiding on 2027. I think when you think about some of the building blocks for next year and how we're thinking about them, we've talked about the fact that we expect there and anticipate there to be a Thank you very much. Thank you very much. we're pretty confident that we're making the right steps in terms of product development, customer proposition and we've really kind of moved forward in that space as well over the last course which I think will stand us in good stead as we go into next year and as I said we'll come back in February our Q4s and talk about 2027 in more detail Thanks so much
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question is from the line of Joe Stoff from Susquehanna. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Joe Stauff
Analyst, Susquehanna
Good morning, Dan. I was curious to see if you could share any more details on the retention and the engagement metrics of the very large cohort of new World Cup customer acquisitions you had. It was about 2.3 million. And if you could share in terms of The participation, what you've been able to convert, whether it be in football, US football and or basketball in October.
Dan Taylor
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, so in the World Cup was about 6% of Q3 handle. And it was a big customer acquisition event. As you said, we had 2.3 million customers on the World Cup, about a third of those were reactivated. and we exited July with 600,000 more customers than we had in the previous two years and the retention was very strong. We saw MLB engagement through July and August benefiting from that and I think that's helped us as we carry through into September increasing player frequency as I said that's been up by 4%, bet count up 15% into the quarter and I think it's contributed to the strong start of the NFL season so we acquired a lot of customers in the World Cup and I think that's put us in good stead as we as I said started the NFL season Thank you
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question is from the line of Jed Kelly from Oppenheimer & Co Inc. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Jed Kelly
Analyst, Oppenheimer & Co.
Hey, great. Thanks for taking my question. Just if we look at the overall combo volumes and in the sports volumes on prediction markets, and we kind of assume like low double-digit share, It should imply your market-making revenue should be pretty well above the $50 million you're calling out. So can you just kind of talk about some of the puts and takes? When we look at the public volumes, we can see how we should think about how you're competing against other market makers. Thanks.
Rob Coldrake
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, I think with that kind of maths, Jed, we should get you onto the team and it'd be helpful for the overall forecast. As I've said, we are very much confident in the forecast that we've got for this year. We're not coming out and saying that we're going to be materially better than that at this stage. Thank you very much. we're not upping the guidance for this year on market making you'll recall as well there are market maker fees to be paid as well so there is a cost to sale associated with market making we're confident in our guidance for this year and we'll look to continue to improve that into 2027 thank you your next question is from the line of Ryan Signal from Craig Hallam your line is now open please go ahead
Ryan Sigdahl
Analyst, Craig-Hallum
Hey, good day, Dan, Rob. How much of the increased competitive intensity do you think is a direct result of FanDuel, which you guys as the leader, everyone else has to work harder to compete against you guys. So it feels like this could just be a negative feedback loop of promos, lower industry profitability, and that ultimately driven by FanDuel. And then kind of second part of that, what gives you confidence? I guess that you can ultimately wean players off of hire for longer generosity. and ultimately moving that wind margins higher over the medium term after being flat for a period over the near term.
Dan Taylor
Chief Executive Officer
Thanks. I'll take that. So look, I think when the increase in generosity was communicated, to be clear, that was to bring FanDuel in line with the market, not ahead of the market. where we are today we believe is in line or slightly below the market in aggregate not ahead of the market so this for us was about ensuring that we had the right firepower and then we will use the science and smarts that we have to deploy that Thank you very much. and that's a reality of where we are right now in the market with some of the uncertainties that we have and that will as Rob has said I think be a temporary position we wouldn't expect that to be at that level forever but it is the nature of the market we're in today thinking more broadly if I look out the levels of overall generosity spend are Thank you very much. many many years and the science between how you think about your pricing, your gross margins, your generosity through margin there's a lot in that so I think we feel good about the long term ability to drive overall net revenue frankly and net revenue margins but we need to be flexible on the different levers that sit behind that to serve the customer in the right way Thanks Dan, good luck guys
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Clark Lampin from U.S. Bank BTIG. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Clark Lampen
Analyst, BTIG
Thanks for taking the question. Good morning. Dan, I wanted to see if you could elaborate on the comment in the shareholder letter around accelerating the U.S. product roadmap and innovation. I'm going to guess that includes first-party prediction product, but would be curious, I guess, for Core Sportsbook and iGaming where you see opportunities for innovation and improvement. Does some of the sportsbook growth that's been topical in Q&A thus far hinge on further parlay penetration via new products and theoretical margin improvement maybe that's tied to product and for iGaming? Does product potentially allow you to manage greater competitive intensity right now? I would just be curious, I guess, what the playbook looks like. Thank you very much.
Dan Taylor
Chief Executive Officer
it's a great question I think that on the product side it's one of the things I've been really really impressed with the team on the pace with which we are improving the product experience for customers now I think is the fastest that I've ever seen 80% or more of our code in FanDuel has been driven by AI we're deploying at six times the rate in terms of product development that we were 18 months ago and that's really picked up in the last you know quarter i would say so i'm feeling good about the pace of development and we're privileged because we've got no shortage of ideas from around the group of how to serve our customers even better. During the period we saw a step change in our cash out availability, we saw some core improvements on things like market uptimes but we also saw some more differentiated features on the social side of things and how we allow customers to share bets on personalization and we are leveraging FanDuel Labs to test and iterate new ideas and that's giving us whilst early days powered by our sort of unique betting capabilities different ways to create bets for customers that we don't think anyone else can do we'll continue iterating those with customers and see what lands well but I'm excited to test and learn quickly there again to the previous point the previous question really I think that the we know that there is further upward scope for driving parlay penetration we know that there is scope to drive frequency and bet count and to deliver new products you know this is a in the US is a by international standards a young market and there's lots of demand for our product that we've been you know and customer journeys and experiences that we haven't yet captured that we've seen from other parts of the world. So I'm excited about that for the team. And as I said, I'm really pleased and impressed with the way that product and tech teams are driving that innovation for the customer at increasing pace.
Clark Lampen
Analyst, BTIG
Thank you.
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question is from the line of Monique Pollard from Citigroup. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Monique Pollard
Analyst, Citigroup
Hi everyone. Thanks for taking my question. Dan, I just wanted to pick up on you know what you were mentioning around you know the ways in which you can think to promote etc and generosity and generosity through margin so Rob I think at the last set of results you talked to promotional spend in the second half being about six percent of handle um I just wanted to understand how much of that was going to come via straight generosity and how much via a kind of odds boost pricing dynamic I was thinking particularly of the bet protect that you had in September that was given away for free and you know what the uptake is like when you do the straight promotions versus generosity versus the kind of pricing dynamics and how to think about that.
Dan Taylor
Chief Executive Officer
Hi Monique, look so I mean we think about the overall bucket of generosity in one I think there are ways that's reported right in terms of different promos get reported in different ways but that's not something that we split out of the way we think about it you know we need to be flexible to deliver the right promo to the right customer at the right time sometimes those come through as free bets sometimes they come through as price boosts sometimes they come through as uh Injury Protect or Super Sub. And we have all sorts of those in our armory. I think the aggregate level of 6% is the right way to think about it. But we're not going to be tied and the team would be wrong, frankly, to try and tie the team to any particular way of distributing that. rather than what works for the customer at that point in time in the market. And we're very, very dynamic and responsive. These plans are constantly evolving. So, yeah, we think about it as one bucket and how to deliver the best experience for the customer. And that's the same way we do around the world. You have the same complexities when we think about super sub across the UK or across the Italian market. or many of the promotions we run in Australia. Many of those run through gross margin, some run through the free bets line but I don't really focus on splitting those out and I don't think it would be right for the team to do so.
Monique Pollard
Analyst, Citigroup
Understood, thank you.
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question is from the line of Chad Beynon from Macquarie. Your line is now open, please go ahead.
Chad Beynon
Analyst, Macquarie
Morning, afternoon, thanks for taking my question. wanted to ask about I guess the mitigation or the UK iGaming mitigation journey thus far kind of what you've learned and as you think about you know how to navigate that business when sports betting implements the higher margin in 27 if you have you know different views versus original expectations based on your success thus far in iGaming thanks hi so look I think
Dan Taylor
Chief Executive Officer
Thank you very much. Thank you very much. on marketing generosity etc and we think that is underpinning the share gains we've seen and we think it will underpin further share gains going forward so i think that's sort of strategically something that i think is very important for us not just in the uk but actually across flutter more broadly we have unparalleled global scale We have the ability therefore to drive more operational leverage than any other operator in this sector anywhere in the world. We haven't always taken full advantage of that for lots of good reasons but that's available to us in a way that I don't think it's available to anybody else. I think that positions as well to navigate these sorts of regulatory tax pressures you know better than others they will all be painful and the choices in the UK were very painful but they're the right ones for the health of the business and they'll set us up well and I think that we're starting to see the results and that and I have to say credit to the leadership of that business because they've done an admirable job of dealing with that was a very challenging situation positioning us for the long term
Chad Beynon
Analyst, Macquarie
Thank you for that Dan, appreciate it.
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question is from the line of Paul Ruddy from Davey. Your line is now open, please go ahead.
Paul Ruddy
Analyst, Davy
Hi Dan and Rob. It's actually a bit of a follow on from that question and it's really about the growth paradigm in international. I think you've referenced 5-10% annual revenue growth rate paradigm. Just thinking about 2027, is that an appropriate level for 2027 from a revenue perspective? And just when we think about the puts and takes, You know you've referenced very strong Italy but we've some tax headwinds in the UK and we've Brazil coming out. Would you be able to give us a sense of kind of what level or what range of EBITDA growth we could expect next year if that five to ten percent revenue growth paradigm is kind of appropriate for 27?
Rob Coldrake
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah hi Paul it's Robert. Good question and yeah ultimately for 2027 we are pretty confident about the ability to continue growing the EBITDA in our international business and we'd expect to be at the higher end of the range that you quoted there of five to ten percent. I think when you look at revenue and many more. performing particularly strongly. We've not talked a huge amount about Italy today, but we're really, really pleased with the performance in our Italian business. And, you know, we continue to grow our market leadership there. So, yeah, overall, we'd expect to be at the high end of that range that you mentioned from an EBITDA perspective.
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question is from the line of Charlie Muir-Sands from BNP Paribas. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Charlie Muir-Sands
Analyst, BNP Paribas
Charlie Muir- Dan, Rob, thank you very much for taking my question. Given the context that you've talked about, Thank you very much. Thank you very much.
Rob Coldrake
Chief Financial Officer
hit that number um if not a number slightly below and then into 2027 we're focused on reducing that further you know we're looking at capex across the business as as part of the simplification measures that that Dan's laid out and and bringing that down over time so um you know you can expect to continue to see capex come down over time and with regard to the portfolio I think you know
Dan Taylor
Chief Executive Officer
I'm a big believer in the scale that you need to win and we have got on unrivaled global scale in our category. We will always take a disciplined look at any of the assets around the world but right now I think there's more opportunities to get more benefits from the scale that we have rather than going the other way.
Conference Operator
Operator
We have reached the end of the Q&A session. I will now pass the call back to Dan and Rob thanks everyone and goodbye this concludes today's call thank you for attending you may now disconnect