GEF Greif, Inc.

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Greif, Inc. Q4 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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Conference Operator
Operator
Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Grice fourth quarter 2026 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star 11 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising that your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker, Bill D'Onofrio, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Please go ahead.
Bill D'Onofrio
Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development
Good morning, and thank you for joining Grice's fiscal fourth quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Today, our CEO, Ole Rosgaard, will provide a strategy and market update, followed by our CFO, Larry Hilsheimer, with a review of our financial results and fiscal 2027 guidance. Please turn to slide two. In accordance with regulation fair disclosure, please ask questions regarding topics you consider important because we are prohibited from discussing material nonpublic information with you on an individual basis. During today's call, we will make forward-looking statements involving plans, expectations, and beliefs related to future events. Actual results could differ materially from those discussed. Additionally, we will be referencing certain non-GAAP financial measures and the reconciliation to the most directly comparable gap metrics that can be found in the appendix of today's presentation. I'll now turn the call over to Ole on slide three.
Ole Rosgaard
Chief Executive Officer
Ole Rosgaard Thank you, Bill, and good morning, everyone. Before we discuss the fourth quarter, I want to start with a bigger picture, how GRIFE has changed over the past two years and what that means for our shareholders. Two years ago, we set out to build a simpler, stronger, more profitable GRIFE. We introduced our solutions-based operating model, brought our global commercial teams together, and committed to taking 100 million of structural cost out of the business. Today, those actions are delivering. We have achieved 105 million in annual run rate cost savings and expanded adjusted EBITDA margins by approximately 160 basis points. We sharpened our portfolio through the Container Board and Timberlands divestitures. We reduced leverage from 3.5 times to 1.2 times at year end. And we have returned capital to shareholders, raising the dividend by nearly 15% over two years and repurchasing approximately 225 million of shares in fiscal 26. This is meaningful progress in a short time. Greif has greater earnings power, a stronger balance sheet, and more room to invest in growth. Our shareholders have participated in that progress, with total shareholder returns of more than 35% over the past two years. And we are not finished. Our priorities are straightforward. Win new customers. grow our share of business with existing customers, invest in high return opportunities in polymers and closures, and keep taking structural costs out of the business. We will remain disciplined with capital, including targeted acquisitions and shareholder returns, while keeping leverage below two times. These results belong to our thousands of colleagues around the world. They have driven this change while continuing to serve our customers. I want to thank them for their commitment and execution. Please turn to slide four. Now, look at what this means for our fiscal 2026. Adjusted EBITDA reached 625.7 million up nearly 12% from last year, despite another year of weak industrial demand. Adjusted earnings per Class A share rose to $4.04, an improvement of 75% from a year ago. Our year-end leverage ratio was 1.2 times. We repurchased 225 million of shares during the year. These are clear signs of stronger earnings and Financial Flexibility. We also announced our exit from coded recycle board through the closure of our sweet water mill. While it may be a difficult decision for those affected, it's the right one for the long-term health of our fiber business. It sharpens our portfolio and supports a more efficient network. The key point is this. We are producing better results through actions we control, we are not depending on an industrial recovery to improve grife. Please turn to slide five. Cost improvements is one of the clearest examples of that approach. At the end of fiscal 25, we had delivered 50 million of annual run rate savings. At the end of fiscal 26, that number reached 105 million. We met our original 100 million commitment a year early. We're now raising the targets to 150 million by the end of fiscal 27. That is 50% above our original commitments and another 45 million of annual one rate savings beyond what we have already delivered. The work is practical, improve operating efficiency, Simplify our network and reduce overhead. These savings are structural. They're designed to make life more competitive and support margin expansion through the cycle. We have earned confidence by delivering. Now we need to deliver the next 45 million. Please turn to slide six for our fourth quarter results. Turning to demand, the industrial backdrop remains difficult. We have not seen convincing signs of a broad recovery. In the fourth quarter, primary product volumes in polymers and metals each declined about 2.3% from a year ago. Closures declined 3.5%. Fiber was the exception, with volumes up 1.3%. Within polymers, intermediate bulk containers grew at a high single-digit rate. while smaller containers faced customer destocking, higher resin costs, and weaker agricultural demand. Metals continue to reflect soft industrial activity across regions. Fiber benefited from steady converting demands. Enclosures experienced lower volumes, but we remain confident in its long-term growth opportunities. We are being realistic about the markets. We do not control when demand recovers. We do control how well we serve our customers, how quickly we win new business, how efficiently we run our operations, and where we invest. That is where our teams are focused. We are strengthening our commercial execution, pursuing growth in attractive end markets, and continuing to improve our cost base. I will turn the call over to Larry to review the quarter, our financial performance, and our outlook.
Larry Hilsheimer
Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Ole. Adjusted EBITDA declined approximately $5 million, or 3.1%, year-over-year in Q4. However, the prior year quarter included $18.2 million of favorable incentive accrual reductions without regard to the sale of container boards. Excluding this prior year item, adjusted EBITDA increased 13 million, or 8.7%, and margins expanded approximately 60 basis points year-over-year, reflecting disciplined price cost management and structural cost optimization. Adjusted EPS increased 50% year-over-year in Q4, driven by lower interest expense from our strength and balance sheet, lower tax expense, and the impact of stock repurchases. Adjusted free cash flow declined $89 million year-over-year in Q4, primarily due to the inclusion of container board cash flows in Q4-25, higher cash taxes, partially offset by better working capital on a year-over-year basis. This brings full-year adjusted free cash flow to $279.3 million. As we discussed in Q3, the Middle East conflict created significant disruption from raw material markets particularly resin. At the time, we expected conditions would allow us to normalize inventory levels during the quarter. However, as supply disruptions intensified and raw material costs remained elevated, we made the decision to maintain higher inventory levels to ensure continuity of supply for our customers. These elevated inventory balances, combined with higher resin costs, increased our investment in working capital and negatively impacted free cash flow relative to our prior guidance. While this created a near-term cash flow headwind, the decision ensured continuity of supply for our customers. Importantly, this is a working capital timing impact rather than a structural change in our cash generation capabilities. Please turn to slide eight for our segment results. In polymer solutions, sales increased due to favorable pricing partially offset by lower volumes. Gross profit percent declined due to product mix and the flow through of higher resin costs. In metal solutions, gross profit dollars and percent improved year over year due to favorable price costs partially offset by lower volumes. In fiber solutions, net sales benefited from higher volumes and the flow through of our previously announced April $60 per ton price increase. While gross profit dollars and 11 million and 230 basis points respectively, both remain below the prior year due in part to the delayed recognition of our June announced $60 per ton price increase. That increase was recognized by RISC in September and we expect the full benefit to begin flowing through the P&L in the second quarter of fiscal 27. In closures, favorable price mix and variable cost management drove approximately 40% year-over-year gross profit dollar growth and a 490 basis point gross margin expansion. This segment continues to benefit from technologically advanced products, new logo growth, and strategic investment. Please turn to slide nine for our capital allocation update. Our capital allocation framework remains unchanged as we enter fiscal 27 with a continued focus on maintaining a strong balance sheet returning capital to shareholders, and investing in high return growth opportunities. Our top investment priority remains organic growth. Our fiscal 27 CapEx guidance is $185 million, up from $160 million in fiscal 26, reflecting increased investment in high return growth opportunities, primarily in polymers and closures, serving our target end markets, as well as investments to drive operational efficiency gains in fiber and metals. Returning capital to shareholder remains an important priority. In fiscal 26, we repurchased 225 million of our shares, representing approximately 6% of the shares outstanding. While our long-term objective remains approximately 2% annually, we took advantage of attractive opportunities to repurchase shares during the year. We will continue allocating capital with discipline while maintaining our commitment to leverage below two times. Please turn to slide 10 for our fiscal 27 guidance. Our fiscal 27 tailwind guidance reflects our consistent methodology of incorporating potential headwinds while recognizing tailwinds only when they are known and highly likely to occur. Our adjusted EBITDA guidance of $645 million assumes $60 million of favorable price costs, including $33 million from improved URB pricing relative to OCC costs. The remaining benefit reflects favorable price cost in polymers and metals based on current raw material trends and continued pricing discipline. This is partially offset by $20 million of transportation and other non-raw material cost inflation. We also assume a $10 million tailwind from incremental emboplast ownership and partial year benefits from the Sweetwater closure, partially offset by a $5 million currency headwind. Our volume assumptions represent an $11 million headwind driven by low single-digit declines in metals. We assume flat volumes in polymers, fiber, and closures with new customer winds offsetting continued industrial demand softness. Finally, SG&A represents an $11 million net headwind as approximately $15 million of structural cost savings are more than offset by $30 million of inflation and strategic investments. Turning to free cash flow, our lowing guidance of $290 million begins with $645 million of adjusted EBITDA and assumes $185 million of CapEx, $50 million of cash interest, $80 million of cash taxes, and $40 million largely related to restructuring and pension costs. We also assume flat working capital, While we expect inventory levels to normalize during fiscal 27, our low-end guidance assumes those benefits are offset by inflationary pressures on working debt. As in prior years, our low-end guidance reflects a conservative view of performance without assuming a broader recovery in industrial demand. Due to our usual Q1 seasonality and the delayed impact of our most recent fiber price increase, which will not fully benefit the P&L until January of 27, Our guidance assumes Q1 will be again our lowest EBITDA dollar and margin contributor of the year at approximately 20% of our total EBITDA guidance and flat EBITDA margins in Q1 of 26. I'll now hand it back to Ole on slide 11.
Ole Rosgaard
Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Larry. Before I close, I want to reinforce the financial progress we've made. As this slide illustrates, we're delivering meaningful improvements in profitability, shareholder returns, and balance sheet strength. These results reflect the actions we've taken to fundamentally strengthen Greif and provide a solid foundation for continued value creation. I'm proud of what our team has accomplished and confident in the direction we are taking Greif. Please turn to slide 12. The progress we've made over the past two years reinforces our confidence in Greif's long-term investment thesis. We have a strong foundation, clear priorities for organic growth and margin expansion, and the financial flexibility to invest in our future while returning capital to shareholders. Thank you for your continued trust and support. Operator, please open the line for questions.
Conference Operator
Operator
Sure. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. Please stand by while we compile our Q&A roster. Our first question will come from the line of Mike Roxland of Truist Securities. Your line is open.
Mike Roxland
Analyst, Truist Securities
Yeah, thank you, Ole, Larry, Bill, and Dan for taking my questions. Larry, first question, just in terms of the $645 million of adjusted EBITDA guidance for 27, you mentioned $60 million of price cost benefit includes $33 million from improved URB pricing versus OCC. Does that $33 million incorporate the $60 per ton September price increase that you mentioned goes into effect in your books in January?
Larry Hilsheimer
Chief Financial Officer
Yes.
Mike Roxland
Analyst, Truist Securities
So that fully bakes in the 60? Yes. Okay, got it. Perfect. Thank you. Second question, back in late 2024, at your investor day, you got into about $1 billion of adjusted EBITDA by fiscal 27. Obviously, Ole highlighted the container board, timberland sales, and you've also rationalized other assets. Can you help us think about what a normalized EBITDA number would mean today, given all those moves?
Larry Hilsheimer
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, essentially, you know, obviously with Container Board gone, I think the simplest thing to think about is if you just backed off the $220 million of Container Board plus the 5 to 10 of Cetera, and then added back in the M&A stuff we've done since then. So, you know, I would say like roughly $750 million kind of thing would be sort of normalized just using that kind of rough math. And that sort of reconciles if you think about how we talk about if we ever got back to normalized volumes, I mean, we would be above that number, but we have inflationary costs that have eaten the other way. So that's how I would think through it.
Ole Rosgaard
Chief Executive Officer
and my guess to add, you know, we remain committed to the long-term earnings ambitions that we outlined at Invest the Day that you're referring to, but we're also being clear that we're not managing the business to a headline number or a fixed timeline. Our focus is building a much stronger drive.
Mike Roxland
Analyst, Truist Securities
Very clear. One last question. I'll turn it over. How should we think about your portfolio and any further moves? Obviously, you recently announced the closure of Sweetwater by end of this calendar year as you focus on your resources on businesses and assets where you have leading market positions. So just realizing that you're always evaluating your assets and performance from a portfolio perspective, what do you think is left to be done? Thanks and good luck in the quarter.
Ole Rosgaard
Chief Executive Officer
We are very happy with the portfolio we have right now. We have leading positions in all our portfolio companies and we also have long runways of growth opportunities, particularly in polymer and in enclosures. When you're number one or you're the leader of the world in particular, like in metals, it's difficult to grow. So as we've outlined, that's where we are focused on really optimizing the business. But we're very, very happy with the portfolio we have now. It's sharp. It's leading edge.
Conference Operator
Operator
And our next question will come from the line of Gansham Panjabi of Baird. Your line is open.
Josh Vesely
Analyst, Baird
Hey guys, good morning. This is Josh Vesely on Fregantium. Thanks for taking my questions. Maybe if I could just start off with a broader volume question. You know, just looking at your guidance, obviously flat to low single or down low single digits depending on the category. I'm just curious what, you know, what you guys think the market is going to do this year or, you know, what your customers are saying about volumes just in context of what you guys have been talking about in terms of, you know, gaining share via your commercial actions.
Ole Rosgaard
Chief Executive Officer
I'm Hi Josh, Ole here. So overall, I mean, demand was consistent with our expectations. First of all, as we outlined, we don't have a crystal ball to give a comment on the whole year. We have assumed basically flat demand like we have experienced here now. But I would say in terms of our organic growth engine, in the year we won more than 4,000 new logos. and we're seeing, you know, business from them starting to come through. So as we said, you know, we're helping ourselves and I'm confident that, you know, we will grow the business. Just to give you an example of this new local growth, we have a customer that we have dealt with for many years, but this is relating to the data center markets. Through the good work of our commercial organization, we won a very large chunk of this customer's business and this is a global chemical producer serving the water treatment markets. And through the focus that we now have, we actually won a significant new contract and this customer is now up 200% compared to the same period last year. and another example is another global customer in the high-end perfume market. We've served this customer for many years with a part of our portfolio, but again, through the intensive work of our new commercial organization, we managed to secure this customer's auto business. In fact, the chief procurement officer named us an official strategic partner. and the result of all that is that our volume with this customer is up 40% compared to the same period last year.
Larry Hilsheimer
Chief Financial Officer
Josh, the thing I would supplement what Ole said is I just remind, this is low-end guidance, so we're taking the most sort of pessimistic view, we're seeing the trend lines continue where You know, the industrial economy just continues to suffer. If you're not tied into that data center business, everything else is off. And, you know, a little even worse in Europe with what's going on there. So, you know, we're really excited about the commercial efforts, and obviously our expectation is we exceed this low-end guidance.
Josh Vesely
Analyst, Baird
Great, thanks for that. And then maybe just for my second question, just curious if you could provide some more specifics on the destocking that you saw on the small plastic volumes. Just more color there on maybe the timing of that and whether or not that's contained in the fourth quarter or if you expect that to kind of linger into 2027. Thanks.
Ole Rosgaard
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, it's really twofold. The increase in cost in resin cost customers to destock hoping that, you know, restaurants will come down again. And that's a big element of that. The other one is the agricultural season, which was very weak so far due to weather events and diesel costs for that matter.
Josh Vesely
Analyst, Baird
And is that supposed to continue into 1Q or is it going to linger or is it kind of contained into 4Q?
Ole Rosgaard
Chief Executive Officer
It's isolated to Q4.
Josh Vesely
Analyst, Baird
Okay, awesome. Thank you, guys.
Conference Operator
Operator
And our next question will be coming from the line of Matt Roberts of Raymond James. Your line is open.
Matt Roberts
Analyst, Raymond James
Hi, Ole, Larry, Bill, Dan, good morning. I have a question on fiber. Volumes seem to be a bright area and recently took some actions on sweet water. We're assuming flat fiber volumes in 27. Are there any offsets within that from the exited tons from Sweetwater? So how much and how do you think about the margin in that business? You spelled out the price cost benefit in 27, but any other considerations from exiting lower margin businesses or potential productivity gains from that Sweetwater announcement?
Ole Rosgaard
Chief Executive Officer
I mean, on Sweetwater, so what The effect there is 120,000 tons that's been removed and 60% of that was CRB. The remaining was URB. We have moved that URB, the profitable part of that, to other mills. I can't give you a percentage of how much that is. Certainly, it's a business we like, and we're still seeing very solid demand in that business. In fact, that's the business that's grown this year.
Larry Hilsheimer
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, the other part, Matt, it's just you asked about other elements of the margin in that business. That one is particularly impacted by the diesel cost and transportation cost increases because you're shipping raw material into the plant and out of the plant at higher levels and maybe in some of our other businesses.
Matt Roberts
Analyst, Raymond James
Right, right. That makes sense. And then maybe relatedly on the cost side, but $15 million in SG&A and the 27 Bridge, I might have missed this on a call, but was that net of the incremental $30 million in savings or how much inflation is absorbed from the prior cost outs and given the announcements? Is it fair to say that incremental $30 million is largely in fiber, or how would you split that?
Larry Hilsheimer
Chief Financial Officer
It's pretty much spread across the businesses. We've got incremental cost saves that are hitting SG&A, about $15 million. The remaining increases will be in our cost of operations. It's offset by, you know, $30 million of SG&A cost increases, labor inflation, medical is just going crazy. So, you know, those are the inflationary costs that we, you know, are working hard to overcome with the cost-out actions.
Matt Roberts
Analyst, Raymond James
All right. Thank you all for taking the questions.
Conference Operator
Operator
And our next question. will be coming from the line of George Staffos of Bank of America. Your line is open, George.
George Staphos
Analyst, Bank of America
Hi, good morning. Thanks for the details. I wanted to cover a bit the waterfall chart, Larry and Ole, on slide 10. And we're familiar, obviously, with your approach now to basically giving us the most pessimistic view that you can have in terms of your guidance. Of those waterfall bars, if you will, Based on what you know in terms of initiatives you have underway, dialogues you have with customers, with employees, within the supply chain, which of those bars would have the most potential upside? Would there be a way to dimensionalize that at this juncture, recognizing that you really want to give us more of the low-end guidance? Second question, in terms of the capital spending this year, the 185, you might have mentioned it, and if you did, I missed it. What is embedded in that number for organic growth high return projects?
Larry Hilsheimer
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, so as to your first question, George, on those walks, the one with the most upside is volume. To the extent our commercial activities drive success, that one's got the most upside in it. Most of the others that The transportation, if somebody could tell us when the Russia-Ukraine and Middle East conflicts would end, we might see some upside there, but I don't think anybody's got high bets on that. So that's the biggest one, clearly the volume. On the capex, we've got our safety investments, we've got our maintenance capex. Those are fairly consistent. What's the number on that? On maintenance, it's around $85 million a year. Then we'll spend another $5 million to $10 million on safety. So then the balance of that is toward high organic growth projects, George. Now, most of those aren't going to deliver any results in this year because we're spending the money now for future, but we're very excited about the number of projects the teams are bringing to us and our ability to execute because of our balance sheet.
George Staphos
Analyst, Bank of America
Thanks, Larry. That makes sense. I don't want to overdo the point, but I just want to come back to the volume trend in polymers. Were you surprised with the performance relative to what your expectation was going into the quarter? And on the destocking, you know, look, recognizing it's behind you from what your remarks pointed to, normally wouldn't you see destocking when raw material prices are going down as opposed to going up? It sounded like your customers destocked because were going up. So maybe it's two sides of the same quarter, but just wanted to probe that.
Ole Rosgaard
Chief Executive Officer
Well, on expectations, it's very difficult to have expectations to the weather and what's going on in the Middle East with terms of diesel costs and all that. But what happened here, George, is it's a seasonal business. and customers are building up stock in sort of an advance of the season because once the season starts, you simply can't do it to order. But what they did, because resin costs were increasing, They delayed the stocking exercise, getting ready for the season, because there was some speculation that the racing costs would go down and then the PAMs would kick in and then they would get it cheaper instead of sitting with high stocks at a high cost. So it's kind of the reverse of what you alluded to.
George Staphos
Analyst, Bank of America
Yeah. Look, I get it. It all depends on the context. Over time, people stock up when costs are heading higher because they're worried about further price hike. Was it related to any particular customer or not?
Ole Rosgaard
Chief Executive Officer
No, generally, it was general to all our ad customers.
Larry Hilsheimer
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, and George, this is one of the things as we've gotten more into the jerrycan business, you can store a lot more of those. You don't store a bunch of big steel drum or plastic drums. But small jerry cans, you can speculate, buy them, get them. And then the weather impacted it as well. So then when they didn't need it, that also contributed to the de-stocked coal.
George Staphos
Analyst, Bank of America
All right. Thank you very much. I'll turn it over.
Conference Operator
Operator
And I would now like to turn the call back to Ole Rosgaard for closing remarks.
Ole Rosgaard
Chief Executive Officer
Thank you. And thank you for your questions today and your continued interest in Greif. We remain focused on disciplined execution and building a fundamentally stronger company. And we have confidence in our ability to continue that progress in fiscal 27. Thank you for your time.
Conference Operator
Operator
And this concludes today's program. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.