HIW Highwoods Properties, Inc.
$29.21
Highwoods Properties, Inc. Q3 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript
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Conference Call Operator
Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us and welcome to the Highwood Properties Q3 2026 earnings call. After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star 1 again. I will now hand the conference over to Brendan Maiorana, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Brendan, please go ahead.
Brendan Maiorana
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Joining me on the call this morning are Ted Klink, our Chief Executive Officer, and Brian Leary, our Chief Operating Officer. For your convenience, today's prepared remarks have been posted on the web. If you have not received yesterday's earnings release or supplemental, they're both available on the Investors section of our website at highwoods.com. On today's call, our review will include non-GAAP measures such as FFO, NOI, and EBITDAIR. The release and supplemental include a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures. Forward-looking statements made during today's call are subject to risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties are discussed at length in our press releases as well as our SEC filings. As you know, actual events and results can differ materially from these forward-looking statements, and the company does not undertake a duty to update any forward-looking statements. With that, I'll turn the call over to Ted.
Ted Klinck
Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Brendan, and good morning, everyone. This quarter's operating results reflect the strengthening fundamentals we have anticipated across our portfolio and our markets. Demand for high-quality office space continues to be strong while supply continues to shrink, a powerful combination. The lack of high-quality office space with limited to no new construction in the strongest BBDs across the Sunbelt is driving a significant rent growth and higher occupancy in our portfolio. During the quarter, we posted gap rent growth of 29% and cash rent growth of 4% on over 1.2 million square feet of second-gen leases. and delivered the second highest second gen net effective rents in our company's history. Further, our portfolio occupancy increased 130 basis points since the end of June and our lease rate is now over 90%. Strong lease economics combined with a positive occupancy trajectory bolsters our positive outlook for organic NOI growth over the foreseeable future. In addition to our robust operating performance, we also made progress improving our portfolio quality during the quarter by selling 85 million of non-core properties in Richmond, Atlanta, and Raleigh. Year to date, we have sold 386 million of properties at an average cap rate below 8%. This total is approximately 150 million more than our original target at the beginning of the year. Plus, we continue to market additional non-core assets for sale and expect to close at least $100 million more by year end. These disposition proceeds provide us with meaningful dry powder for future investments. As we continue to recycle out of older, non-BBD-located properties and invest in commute-worthy office buildings in the strongest locations across the Southeast, We expect a corresponding increase in our long-term FFO and cash flow growth rates. Turning to our financial results, we delivered FFO of 89 cents per share and once again increased our outlook for the full year, which is now $3.51 to $3.70 per share. At the midpoint, this is 2.5 cents higher than our prior outlook, and six and a half cents higher than the beginning of the year. We are especially pleased with the increase in our outlook since the beginning of the year, given four cents of higher than anticipated dilution due to increased disposition activity. With our strong operating results, our GAAP same property NOI outlook has also strengthened. These strong trends illustrate the quality of our portfolio and the health of our markets and gives us confidence the gains we've made during the past several quarters will sustain into future periods. As I mentioned earlier, our leasing performance was excellent in terms of both volume and economics. We once again posted strong net effective rents. In the past five quarters, we have recorded three of our four highest net effective rent quarters in our company's history. New leasing volume was healthy with 300,000 square feet of new second gen deals, which helped drive the lease rate to 90.1%. Our high lease rate, combined with limited expirations and known move outs, gives us confidence we'll continue to drive occupancy higher. On the disposition front, we sold 85 million of non-core properties in the third quarter. We sold a portfolio in Richmond for 53 million, a building in our Century Center Park in Atlanta for more than 20 million, and two buildings in Raleigh for nearly 12 million. As reflected in our outlook, we expect to sell an additional 100 to 250 million of non-core assets by the end of the year. Going forward, we will continue to prune our portfolio and redeploy that capital into higher quality, more resilient investments. Turning to development, we are finishing up our current development pipeline with 23 springs. Our 460,642,000 square foot office tower in Dallas is uptown BBD, where we have a 50% JV interest. 23 Springs is now 95% leased and projected to stabilize by the second quarter of next year. We expect to replenish our pipeline and have included 100 to 400 million of new development announcements in our outlook for the remainder of the year. To this end, we have received interest from Build a Suit and sizable anchor prospects for potential new projects. which is further evidence of the lack of available high quality blocks across our markets. Companies are willing to pay premium rents, in many instances substantially more than current top of market rents, to secure space they need to recruit and retain their talent. With construction timelines typically extending two to four years, any near term development announcements will take time to show up in our financial results. However, in the current environment, we believe new development with manageable leasing risks presents attractive risk-adjusted returns that will lead to higher FFO and cash flows, a faster growth rate, and better quality portfolio over the long run. We remain active in identifying and evaluating potential acquisitions. To date, we haven't found opportunities with strong risk-adjusted returns like last year when we closed on nearly $600 million of best-in-class properties across Dallas, Raleigh, and Charlotte. Before I turn the call over to Brian, I want to reiterate the priorities we are focused on to drive long-term value creation for our shareholders. First, we will continue to drive occupancy towards stabilized levels in our operating portfolio. Second, we will capture strong rent growth and attractive economics on second-gen leasing. Third, we will recycle out of non-core CapEx intensive assets in non-BBD locations and invest in properties with better cash flows and higher long-term growth rates. and fourth, we will do all of this while maintaining a strong and flexible balance sheet. We made meaningful progress on each of these priorities during the first three quarters of the year and believe we have an opportunity to significantly improve our growth rate, BBD mix and portfolio quality over the next few years. We believe the focus on these four areas combined with a strong fundamental backdrop and our core BBDs due to healthy demand, limited new supply, and increasing rents will drive significant growth in cash flow and long-term value over the next several years. Brian?
Brian Leary
Chief Operating Officer
Thanks, Ted, and good morning, everyone. Kudos to our team for another standout quarter. Ted touched on the supply and demand setup in our BBDs, and the national data shows just how broad it has become. Major brokerage houses are now telling the same story. Nationally, CBRE reported a 10th consecutive quarter of positive net absorption, with vacancy declining for a fifth straight quarter to 18.2%, and national asking rents growing 3.1% year-over-year, the fastest pace since 2016. JLL added that each of the past four quarters saw more leasing than any single quarter since 2019, with tenants now growing their footprints by an average of 13%. At the same time, the office supply pipeline has all but dried up. CBRE projects 2026 will deliver 76% less square feet year over year and would represent the lowest year of deliveries since it began tracking the figure in 1990. Piling on, JLL reported that 9.6 million square feet was removed from the national inventory this quarter alone, and a total of more than 45 million square feet has been taken out of service since late 2023. Describing landlord leverage in the trophy and new construction segments as extreme. The result is pricing power for what Cushman & Wakefield calls workplaces that are driving engagement and facilitating employee development, or what Highwoods defines as commute-worthy environments and experiences. Amidst this backdrop, our team posted its largest quarterly leasing volume since 2024. And coupled with greater renewal success and consistent new leasing, Our occupancy gains continue to track ahead of our original guidance earlier this year. Turning to our markets, three once again stood out. Charlotte, Dallas, and Nashville. In Charlotte, the flight to quality is turning into a scramble for space in the nation's fastest growing city for the Census Bureau. Of the region's 2.9 million people, approximately 1 million live in the city of Charlotte, almost doubling in size since 2000. CBRE reported the fourth consecutive quarter of positive net absorption, 456,000 square feet, and for the second quarter in a row, every class of office posted occupancy gains. At the top of the market, what CBRE calls prime, vacancy has dropped more than 650 basis points year over year to 7.7%, while asking rents in turn have climbed nearly 20%. With more than 1 million square feet of already leased space set to take occupancy market-wide over the next year and new construction 78% pre-leased, Charlotte is essentially out of the very best space. Our uptown and South Park portfolio is capturing that scarcity directly, as evidenced by gap roll-ups of 77% and cash roll-ups of 19% during the quarter. In Dallas, Demand keeps getting stronger. Following nearly 920,000 square feet absorption last quarter, CBRE reported more than 1 million square feet of positive net absorption in the third quarter. Demand is most concentrated in the BBDs we've built our Dallas strategy around. Preston Center posted the lowest vacancy in all of Dallas-Fort Worth at 5.2%. Uptown was among the market's absorption leaders. and average asking rents in both submarkets are now well above $60 a square foot triple net. Third to Nashville, which was once again our leasing volume leader in where we signed 455,000 square feet across 24 deals in the third quarter. 15 of these represents 111,000 square feet of new leasing, furthering the occupancy build back Nashville is achieving this year. Year-to-date, our Nashville team has now signed nearly 1 million square feet of leases, including more than 360,000 square feet across 41 new deals. The quarter was buoyed by two renewals, a 203,000 square foot commitment in Brentwood and a 77,000 square foot lease in the West End. At Westwood South in Brentwood, a building we've highlighted on recent calls, we signed 38,000 square feet of new leases in the quarter and are now 88% leased. Up from 0% at the beginning of the year. Our leasing activity in Music City is happening amid the recurring refrain of a dwindling supply and development pipeline. Last quarter, we noted active construction was limited to 450,000 square feet. Today, CBRE notes that same pipeline has shrunk to just 60,000 square feet across the entire market, while prime asking rents rose nearly 8% in a single quarter to $62 a square foot. With virtually nothing new on the way, commute-worthy space across our core BBDs of downtown, West End, Brentwood, and Cool Springs is becoming scarce, reinforcing the organic growth embedded in our Nashville portfolio and pipeline. We also saw encouraging results in Atlanta and here at home in Raleigh. In Atlanta, we signed 111,000 square feet across 12 deals with cash roll-ups of 10% and gap roll-ups of 25%, and in Raleigh, we signed 105,000 square feet across 15 deals with gap rents up 15% and net effective rents above our portfolio average. With no new construction underway in either Atlanta or the Triangle, our well-located assets in both markets are positioned to benefit. In summary, with a commute-worthy portfolio, a vanishing supply picture and a trophy asset team operating the nation's most business-friendly states and markets, Highwoods is well positioned to keep delivering on occupancy gains, rental growth, and long-term value creation. I'll now turn the call over to Brendan.
Brendan Maiorana
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Brian. In the third quarter, we delivered net income of $31.8 million, or 29 cents per share, and FFO of $100.1 million, or 89 cents per share. It was a relatively clean quarter as we did not record any land sale gains, and there were no significant or unusual items to highlight. Our balance sheet is in excellent shape. We made significant progress lowering our debt to EBITDA ratio from 6.7 times at the beginning of the year to 6.1 times in the third quarter. We have nearly 280 million of cash on hand and nothing drawn on our $750 million revolving credit facility. During the quarter, we closed a $56 million secured mortgage at our 50-50 Midtown East JV, repatriating over $44 million from this recently stabilized development back to Highwoods. We also closed a $370 million delayed draw secured mortgage at our 50-50 23 Springs joint venture, which refinanced an existing construction loan at the joint venture level and repatriated an additional $55 million back to Highwoods. The only debt maturity we have between now and Q1 2028 is our March 2027 bond, which has a remaining balance of $286 million. This debt can be repaid at par starting on December 1st of this year. Given our strong cash position, we don't anticipate a need to raise capital to address this maturity. We are working on one additional JV financing that we expect to close later this year or early next year, which will repatriate even more capital back to Highwoods and further strengthen our liquidity and unencumbered debt to EBITDA ratio. Based on our current projections for NOI growth, we expect debt to EBITDA to be modestly lower at year end and continue to decline throughout 2027 assuming otherwise leverage neutral investment activities. We agreed to sell 1,056,000 shares on a forward basis through our ATM program at an average gross price of $32.24 per share for total net proceeds of $33.5 million. Given our strong cash position and no balance outstanding on a revolving credit facility, we have not yet settled these forward sale agreements. We expect to use this dry powder as we deploy capital into future investments. As Ted mentioned, our occupancy improved 130 basis points from the end of Q2, and our lease rate is now 90.1%, up 50 basis points sequentially. We tightened our year-end occupancy outlook to 87.0% to 88.0%, with the midpoint remaining 87.5%. Given our significant backlog of signed but not yet commenced leases, we remain confident occupancy will move higher by year-end. As you know, for the past few years, we have set a 300,000 square feet in new leasing second-gen volume as a good quarterly marker for us to drive occupancy higher. Given our lease rate is now above 90% and we have a more manageable forward lease expiration schedule with limited large known move-outs, we expect new leasing volumes will moderate going forward. We expect to continue pushing occupancy higher in future years, although it will obviously be more difficult to replicate the 250 basis points of improvement we expect in 2026. As Ted discussed, we had strong financial and operating results during the quarter, with FFO of 89 cents per share. Same property NOI growth, occupancy, and rent growth are all trending better than we originally anticipated. As expected, cash flow has been below normalized levels during 2026 as we spend upfront leasing capital to build occupancy before realizing the benefit of higher cash revenues. This is a normal part of the office business cycle. As occupancy increases, Free rent periods will burn off and leasing capex will normalize and ultimately result in a significant jump in free cash flow and dividend coverage more in line with our annual metrics earlier this decade. Before I turn the call back to the operator for questions, I'd like to give some color on our financial outlook. We updated our 2026 FFO outlook to 351 to 370 per share, which is up 2.5 cents per share at the midpoint since our prior outlook in July, and includes the possibility of 14 cents per share of land sale gains at the high end and none at the low end. We have one possible transaction that could close prior to year end and result in a large gain. At this point, it's difficult to know whether this transaction will close in 2026 or move into a future year. Excluding land sale gains already recorded this year, we've increased the midpoint of the outlook by 4.5 cents. Stripping out all land sale gains, the midpoint of our outlook implies FFO of more than 90 cents per share for the fourth quarter. which puts us in strong position as we head into 2027. Consistent with our typical practice, we plan to provide our 2027 FFO outlook in February at the same time that we report fourth quarter 2026 results. Our Q4 outlook obviously doesn't factor in the potential impact of any capital recycling activities. As Ted mentioned, we have 100 to 250 million of potential additional dispositions that could close by year end. Overall, given our implied FFO outlook for the end of 2026, combined with ample cash on hand available for future deployment, we're upbeat about the trajectory of FFO and cash flow for the foreseeable future. Operator, we are now ready for questions.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
We will now begin the question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star one again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Your first question comes from the line of Seth Berge with Citi. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Seth Berge
Analyst, Citi
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to go to your comments about kind of the potential to do more dispositions and then, you know, continue to recycle capital into higher quality acquisitions. Just given the movement and the tenure, can you just talk a little bit about the transaction environment? Have pricing expectations changed and debt costs have gone up? How do you kind of think about your required return expectations?
Ted Klinck
Chief Executive Officer
Hey, Seth. Thanks for the question. Yeah, look, as we mentioned, we have about 100 to 250 million more of dispos. That's the guidance through the rest of this year. and look, I think everything's with the interest rates going up. I think everything's just taking more time, right? I think just the uncertainty there, but I will tell you every one of the deals is under contract and we're working through due diligence. So we haven't lost anything. Nothing's been dropped yet. And it's really a mix of assets. It's Atlanta, Raleigh, Nashville, Tampa, Richmond, and one asset in Pittsburgh as well. So We've got a pretty good insight on what's going on just given the number of transactions we have. So, you know, I think we're waiting and seeing, but so far everything's holding together. It's just taken longer to line up the capital stack from a disposition standpoint. Now, in acquisitions, I think it's slowed down. I think some of the assets around the market have been pulled, and I think, again, just everything's harder. So I think our return requirements have probably gone up a little bit. But not materially, but we continue to look and we look and we just haven't found anything this year. You know, last year we successfully bought about 600 million of assets. We just haven't found acquisitions that meet our risk return requirement this year, which is, again, one of the reasons we're sort of shifting towards development where we think there's better risk return requirements.
Seth Berge
Analyst, Citi
Great. And maybe kind of. One more on your comments towards the end of the prepared remarks around just kind of the capex spend, just what's kind of where you are in the office policing cycle. How should we kind of think about the levels of capex as we think about the fourth quarter and then just maybe as we think about kind of the trajectory into 2027 relative to 2026?
Brendan Maiorana
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. Hey, Seth, it's Brendan. Maybe I'll take that one. So, yeah, we have been spending a lot of capital on the leasing side in 2026, kind of as expected. I think year to date, I believe we're north of 140 million of total leasing capex. That number is high, and I think it will moderate a little bit in the fourth quarter from where we've been for the first three quarters of the year, but still be pretty elevated for all of 2026. We still think that on a normalized basis, as occupancy stabilizes and then as we look at the forward lease expiration schedule that we have, that our leasing capex, both in terms of TIs and leasing commissions, is going to moderate kind of into the low $100 million range, so probably $110 million, $115 million, maybe $120 million. So that reduction in leasing capex on a go-forward basis combined with the significant embedded cash and away growth that we have as leases commence and cash commence is going to create a pretty big jump in terms of free cash flow over time. So we feel good about that. My expectation in terms of 27 is it'll be an okay year from a cash flow perspective, but certainly not back to what we think of as normalized levels. We think that that's more likely in 2028 and thereafter.
Seth Berge
Analyst, Citi
Thank you for taking my questions.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Blaine Heck with Wells Fargo. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Blaine Heck
Analyst, Wells Fargo
Great, thanks. Good morning. With 23 springs now essentially stabilized and the outlook contemplating up to $400 million of development announcements. Can you just talk about what yields you're targeting given today's construction costs and whether the interest rate elevation and volatility is impacting your decision to commit to a development? And then maybe just expand on how you weigh the delayed NOI from developments against acquisitions where you're getting immediate contribution. Do you think You know, you can achieve enough of a spread in development yield versus cap rates to compensate you for that delayed NOI recognition.
Ted Klinck
Chief Executive Officer
Hey, Blaine, this is Ted. Maybe I'll take the first part and then Brendan can jump in. Look, I do think higher interest rates are, you know, it's impacting our decisions a little bit, or at least we're weighing it. I do think that, you know, the headwinds with the higher interest rates are somewhat offset by tailwinds of just the fundamentals. I think the demand is so good that we're seeing out there since we started looking at some of these developments that we're feeling a lot of conviction that we can meet our underwritten yields. It sort of weighs off each other a little bit. But in general, I think it's not going to stop us from doing anything, at least right now. Again, our developments that we're looking at, some of them are build-to-suit and they're open book. So really, there's no real interest rate risk on that because it is an open book contract with the developer or with the tenant. And then on the multi-tenant deals, again, the fundamentals seem really, really strong to us. Again, as we look at the yields, The development yields we can achieve are far in excess of acquisition cap rates, so we like that spread that's there today.
Brendan Maiorana
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
And then Blaine, it's Brendan. Just in terms of how we think about the NOI near term with acquisitions relative to development, where obviously the time cycle on development takes time for that NOI to show up in financial results, We really look at risk-adjusted returns and think about where the highest risk-adjusted returns are, including everything associated with development and acquisitions. Those development returns that we look at include that carry that we have over the time frame, so we think about that there. We don't get too hung up in terms of the near-term financial impact if the risk-adjusted returns are higher on development. The one thing that I would point out, though, is We've sold 150 million more in terms of dispositions this year than what we thought at the beginning of the year. That capital is sitting in cash, has not been reinvested. And at the same time, we've increased our outlook for FFO as we've migrated throughout the year. So I don't think we're too concerned about the negative impact, the negative carry in terms of disposition assets being recycled into development in the near term. if we feel like those are going to be good projects and good risk-adjusted returns upon delivery and stabilization.
Brian Leary
Chief Operating Officer
Hey, Brian, one little thing on maybe a color into the users or anchors who we're talking to about potential developments or build-to-suits. The question comes up as to the rate volatility impacting their strategic capital decisions. And what we continue to hear, and I know I'm a bit of a broken record on this, is that it's really a strategic talent decision as much as it is a capital decision. which is their greatest investment. And this week, everyone's down in Miami for ULI and the emerging trends report has come out. And the number seven trend that they highlighted is AI and the human premium. And so we are seeing that while the interest rates are definitely impacting the broader economy, folks who are pretty convicted around getting their people under one roof and growing, they're not rate agnostic per se, but they're not rate sensitive in getting their folks together.
Blaine Heck
Analyst, Wells Fargo
That's all really helpful. Thanks, everyone. Brendan, maybe sticking with you, same property cash NOI was essentially flat at 0.2%, while GAAP NOI grew 4.1%. Straight Line Rent jumped to $14 million versus $5.5 million a year ago. I guess, can you just walk us through how much of that gap is the free rent associated with the large amount of new leasing you've done, and whether there are any specific leases where the free rent burn-off is going to meaningfully change that cash same-store trajectory?
Brendan Maiorana
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, Blaine, I mean, the most of that delta is attributable to the occupancy bill that you've seen, which initially carries that free rent that's there. So the delta between GAAP and cash is principally driven by that. And we've said this before, but there's a structural advantage or that cash NOI growth, cash same property NOI growth has over GAAP same property NOI growth, principally because of development, a little bit of because of acquisitions. So anytime GAAP is higher than cash, that is a very strong indicator that cash and OI growth is set to increase meaningfully in future periods. So we expect that will be the case as we go forward as a number of these leases that are under free rent today, that free rent burns off and then they start cash paying. So we've got, you know, there's a number that are out there that will move into cash pay in 27. And then there's even some that will Commence in 27. That will be in 28. So I think we feel good about the outlook in terms of cash, same property, NY growth for the foreseeable future.
Dylan Burzynski
Analyst, Green Street
Great. Thanks, guys.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Rob Stevenson with Huntington. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Rob Stevenson
Analyst, Huntington
Good morning, guys. Ted, if you exclude the non-core markets, how much of the portfolio today is outside of your BBDs and are likely recycling candidates over time?
Ted Klinck
Chief Executive Officer
Maybe I'll answer it a different way, I think. We have this $250 million or so that we want to get that's sort of most of it's under contract or all of it's under contract. And then once we get done with that, that's $250 million, we'll have still a few remaining assets in our Century Center in Atlanta. And, you know, those are, you know, one's a long-term single-tenant deal, government-leased building, a couple are multi-tenant buildings. and then it's really what we have in Pittsburgh and PPG primarily. And so after that, I think it's the 250 and then it's Century Center in Pittsburgh.
Rob Stevenson
Analyst, Huntington
Okay, that's helpful. And then given Brian's positive comments on Raleigh and access to capital from the sales, is there any reason why you wouldn't exercise your option at Block 83?
Ted Klinck
Chief Executive Officer
No, the answer is no. I think the nice thing about it is we do it. It's an ongoing option. So we can just, it's based on timing. Again, if we can get some of the DISPO proceeds in the door and if we can figure out these development opportunities. So it's really more just a timing thing. We will absolutely, we've been thrilled with that acquisition and how it's performed over the past year. So it's definitely going to happen. It's just a timing thing.
Rob Stevenson
Analyst, Huntington
Okay. And then last one for me, Brendan, what is the magnitude of the signed not open backlog that you talked about in your comments?
Brendan Maiorana
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
It's about 800,000 square feet. So that will come on over time. But again, I mean, I would don't expect that occupancy is going to move to 90% over the next several quarters, like in line with that lease rate, right? There's going to be puts and takes that come there. But I think the spread, which is 310 basis points today, is wide versus where we historically operate. Usually it's 200 or less. So we expect that that lease to occupied spread will narrow over time. But we do feel good just given that we've got roughly 800,000 square feet of new leases that are set to come into occupancy over time. And we think that creates a positive trajectory in terms of our occupancy outlook as we go forward over the next several quarters.
Rob Stevenson
Analyst, Huntington
Okay. I guess one follow-up to that would be any sort of incremental known move-outs at this point versus what you guys have talked about in the past? that we need to be aware of as we're thinking about 27?
Brendan Maiorana
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Nothing major. I mean, I think we feel good about the expiration outlook. And we've talked about this before in terms of kind of I think often you and others ask about retention levels. I think we feel good about the retention levels both for where we are for fourth quarter and then as we think about 2027. What's remaining there is which excludes all of the early renewals that we've done and pushed out into future years. I think we're around 50% or so retention on the remaining expirations for the next five quarters. That's higher than where we historically are. So that feels good to us and is another reason why we feel optimistic about the occupancy trajectory as we go forward.
Rob Stevenson
Analyst, Huntington
Okay. Thanks, guys. Appreciate the time this morning.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Nick Fillman with Baird. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Nick Fillman
Analyst, Baird
Hey, good morning, guys. Maybe commenting a little bit and looking into 27 for a run rate, adjusting for these potential disposition buckets. Ted, you made the comment that blended sales today around 8% on a cap rate basis. You kind of alluded to some of the markets like Richmond, Century Center. How should we be thinking about the bucketed assets in that $100 million to $250 million of potential sales in fourth quarter for a cap rate basis? Is it closer to that 8%? Is it lower than that with the Bridgestone assets, or is it more to that upper end of the low double digits that we saw in third quarter?
Ted Klinck
Chief Executive Officer
Hey, Nick. Really, it's all of that. As I mentioned, it's really in six. The $250 million is really in six different markets. It's a mix of assets. I think if we sold all $250 million, the cap rate would be, call it low to mid nines, just a tick below mid nines cap rate.
Nick Fillman
Analyst, Baird
That's helpful. And then Brendan, you made the comment on new leasing. You had put that bogey out there, $300,000 per quarter to continue to build occupancy. But now with the progress you've made on that front, that number might be a little bit lower just given availability within the portfolio. I guess what's the target that we should be looking at here? Is it closer to $200,000? Just some commentary there would be helpful.
Brendan Maiorana
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, Nick, it's probably, I think, to achieve the occupancy levels that we talked about a quarter ago, which is kind of, you know, let's say up 100 basis points or so as we migrate throughout 27. So, you know, for 87.5, give or take, at the end of this year, you know, kind of in that 88.5 context by the end of next year, it's probably around 250 a quarter, give or take. Again, depends probably a little bit on where some of the Trentham, and Brian Leary.
Nick Fillman
Analyst, Baird
And then maybe just following up on a question Blaine asked earlier on development yields, if we look at some maybe your newer acquisitions with market rents, say maybe block 38s or the tariffs, I guess, how do those rents compare to the rents that you're talking with on build-to-sue projects? Is the differential 20%, 25%? I'm just trying to get a gauge on some of the opportunity there to push rate.
Ted Klinck
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, Nick, so our most recent acquisitions where we've done subsequent leasing, I would tell you, 600 try-on we acquired roughly a year ago. So we leased up I think the building is like 83% leased when we bought it. And we're now in the mid-90s. We leased it up quicker and at much higher rents, over 10% higher rents than what we underwrote. So the market rents are really moving quickly. And I'd tell you today, if we did a lease today, it'd be even quite a bit higher than that. Then in the terraces, I think we've just done one lease, and it's like 23% or 24% higher than our underwriting. Again, we bought that building in January. So rents continue to move both in Charlotte and Dallas very quickly. Different cadence through all of our markets, but more so in Dallas and Charlotte. In Raleigh, we just did one renewal there, and I think it was maybe 4% or 5% higher, not quite the level of Dallas and Charlotte.
Brian Leary
Chief Operating Officer
One clip on it, that's just to our underwriting, but to mark the markets even more than that, right, Ted, in terms of that.
Nick Fillman
Analyst, Baird
Very helpful. Thank you all.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Peter Abramowitz with Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Peter Abramowitz
Analyst, Deutsche Bank
Yeah, thank you for taking the question. So you've seen a nice acceleration in pricing power reflected through the leasing spreads over the past couple of quarters. Just wondering if you could talk about your updated thoughts on how you see mark-to-market across the portfolio, and specifically if you could help us frame how you're thinking about that in terms of lease trade-outs for 2027 and how that will impact the earnings trajectory.
Brendan Maiorana
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Hey, Peter, it's Brendan. Maybe I'll take that. So just to answer the question directly, it's probably up about, let's call it about plus 10%, I think, plus 7% mark to market across the portfolio. I think if you look at market rents across our portfolio, we're probably up about 10% kind of year on year. And then we've got in place annual escalators that, you know, call it up around three. So you take that three off of kind of the in place that's gone up that much versus 10 of market rents. And you kind of get to about a plus seven compared to roughly flat a year ago. That's on a cash basis. Cash spreads in any given quarter are going to kind of bounce around a little bit. So, you know, we'll see where those numbers shake out as we go forward. Obviously, on a gap basis, we've been successful pushing term out longer and we've been successful with pushing annual bumps. and free rent has come down a little bit. So all of those things benefit the gap spread. So I think that's part of the reason why you've seen those gap spreads accelerate faster than where we've seen the cash rent spreads.
Nick Fillman
Analyst, Baird
All right. That's all I had. Appreciate the time.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Tom Catherwood with U.S. Bancorp. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Tom Catherwood
Analyst, U.S. Bancorp
Thanks, and good morning, everybody. Just wanted to go back to your answer to Nick's question and get a little bit more specific on the development rents. So maybe in your strongest markets, like your Nashvilles and Dallas and Charlottes, what rents do you need to justify new development, and what is that gap to kind of the market rents right now?
Ted Klinck
Chief Executive Officer
Sure. Look, Dallas... Dallas is currently getting market rents in that, call it $100 net, call it maybe $90 to $100 net, or $85 to $100 net rate. And that is what you need to justify new development today. So Dallas, we're there, right? So second, Charlotte probably needs $90 on a more of a gross basis, $90 to $95 probably, highest rents achieved. probably in the 70s, low 70s today. So what's that? Maybe 20% off, if you will. And then Nashville's probably in that same ballpark as well.
Tom Catherwood
Analyst, U.S. Bancorp
Perfect. Perfect. All right. And then last one for me. In general, with space getting tighter in your markets, how much are tenants coming to you for early renewals? And could that have a benefit to cash flow in the coming years if you're able to do more renewals instead of new leasing?
Ted Klinck
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, look, you hit on a trend that we're seeing. I might even mention, I can't remember if it was last quarter, but we are absolutely seeing customers that have expirations. Typically, the larger customers have expirations. It used to be maybe two years out. Now, I'd say it's three to five. coming to us, and they're seeing that there's not going to be any new supply in the next several years. So they want to renew, probably lock in favorable economics, but also make sure they've got space that accommodates their needs if they want to upgrade their space. So without a doubt, we are seeing and we are renewing certain customers that have expirations that are well before their natural expiration date.
Brian Leary
Chief Operating Officer
Thomas Bryan here real quick. And I think we've mentioned this in the past. We haven't been shy about being proactive kind of in this space where the majority of our assets are unsecured with regard to debt. We don't have a debt partner. We can reach forward with certain anchors and larger customers to secure them now and extend them. At the same time, many of them are expanding, too. So they want to go ahead and take care of that before they run out of space.
Tom Catherwood
Analyst, U.S. Bancorp
That's great. Appreciate it. Thanks, everyone.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Dylan Burzynski with Green Street. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Dylan Burzynski
Analyst, Green Street
Hi, guys. Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. Brendan, I think you mentioned, I joined late, so excuse me if I'm misquoting you, but I think you mentioned marker rents are sort of up 10% year-over-year across the portfolio. I know you sort of walked through some of the markets versus underwriting, but could you sort of walk through sort of how that 10% shakes up across the various markets in which you own assets in?
Ted Klinck
Chief Executive Officer
Sure. Look, I think our strongest two markets where you've seen well in excess of 10%, again, it's Dallas and Charlotte. And I'd say Nashville's moving at a pretty good pace as well. And then, you know, after that, you know, I think Tampa, we're seeing some real movement there. The interesting thing about Tampa is there's no new space, first gen space that may temper some of the rent growth for a bit. But again, it's flight to quality. So I think owners are going to have a good headwind or tailwind there as well. And then I think you're seeing smaller rent increases in maybe Atlanta, Raleigh. and Orlando, I would say. But I think you're going to start seeing we're starting to see a lot of momentum in Raleigh. There just happened to be a lot of first gen space is still being absorbed. But the demand has been pretty good. So I think that's going to pick up. So, again, all of our markets are increasing. It's just it's just the pace is different across the markets.
Dylan Burzynski
Analyst, Green Street
And I guess with that in mind, I know, you know, a lot of focus on the capital markets environment has been related to higher rates. But as you think about or as you look at or if you've seen buyer underwriting, right, as you guys are out in the market, are you seeing people lean into that rent growth story as they look out the next two, three years? And how has that maybe impacted pricing?
Ted Klinck
Chief Executive Officer
No, I think they have, Dylan. Again, we look at all the acquisitions that are out there and Thank you.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Ronald Camden with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Ronald Camden
Analyst, Morgan Stanley
Hey, great. One, just looking for some breadcrumbs on FameStore NOI as we're thinking about sort of this year and how it could play out. Obviously, occupancy has been building, so it should be a tailwind next year. I'm just curious if you could provide some high-level comments on either any known explorations or commencements or free rents. How do we think about the puts and sakes with same store and why as we start to flip the calendar?
Brendan Maiorana
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Hey, Ron. Yeah, it's Brendan. Yeah, I mean, I think the biggest indicator, as I mentioned earlier, is just when gap is high, and it's higher than cash, then that's a strong signal that you're going to see cash have a corresponding increase in future periods. So there is likely to be a lot of conversion of current free rent, non-cash rent into cash. This year, I think our straight line guidance is mid $40 million range. That number is normally kind of low to mid 20s. So that gives you a pretty good indication of how much higher we are in terms of Noncash Rent or Free Rent. So a lot of that will come online combined with some occupancy gains. I think we'll drive same property outlook on a cash basis and probably in all likelihood on a GAAP basis next year to above trend levels would be expectations, at least as we sit here today.
Ronald Camden
Analyst, Morgan Stanley
Great. And then my second one, and sorry if this was asked, but on the acquisitions, The potential, obviously, number went down. The ones that flipped away, what happened there? Was it pricing? Was it competition? Just curious what happened to those deals that you guys thought could be possible but are no longer possible. Thanks.
Ted Klinck
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, Ron, you might be referring to when we took the guidance down from $85 million at the low end to zero, and that is solely the timing of the acquisition process. on Block 83, where we have an ongoing option to acquire. We currently own 10% of that asset with our partner, and we have an option to buy up to 50%. And it's really just a timing issue. We don't know if we'll actually exercise that option late this year or sometime next year. There's not a question of if, it's just when right now.
Ronald Camden
Analyst, Morgan Stanley
Got it. And that's what drove the revision downwards. Okay. That makes sense. That's it for me. Thank you.
Ted Klinck
Chief Executive Officer
Thank you.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Ted Klinck for closing remarks.
Ted Klinck
Chief Executive Officer
Well, thank you all for joining the call this morning, and thank you for your continued interest in Highwoods. We look forward to seeing everybody at NARATE, and we will be having a bus tour, so if you're interested, just reach out to Brendan and get on the schedule. Thanks, everybody.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.