IP International Paper Company
$34.48
International Paper Company Q3 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript
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Operator
Good morning and thank you for standing by. Welcome to International Papers, third quarter 2026 earnings call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, you will have an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, press star one again. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one. To withdraw your question, press star 1 again. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Mandi Gilliland, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Ma'am, the floor is yours.
Mandi Gilliland
Senior Director of Investor Relations
Thank you. Good morning and good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to International Paper's third quarter 2026 earnings call. Our speakers this morning are Andy Silvernail, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Lance Loeffler, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Before we jump in, please note that this quarter, in light of the planned separation of the EMEA business and the subsequent UK regulatory requirements, we are no longer including our existing packaging solutions EMEA US GAAP financial guidance in our guidance framework and do not anticipate providing such guidance in the future. The EMEA management team will provide more information at the DS Smith PLC Capital Markets Day on November 3rd. This will include details about the business model, growth strategy, and financial outlook following the separation. I'd also like to remind everyone there is important information at the beginning of our presentation, including certain legal disclaimers. For example, during this call, we will make forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Information about these risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our forward-looking statements can be found in our press releases and reports filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. We will also present certain non-U.S. GAAP financial information. Reconciliation to U.S. GAAP financial measures are available on our website along with our third quarter earnings press release and today's presentation slides. Now let me turn it over to Andy Silvernail.
Andy Silvernail
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Mandi. Good morning, good afternoon, everyone. Let's begin on slide three. In the third quarter, we improved execution and delivered an important inflection in earnings in an environment of weak consumer confidence and rising inflation. Our focus is to control what we can control and execute the three pillars of our strategy, an advantage cost position, superior customer experience, and a high relative supply position in the markets we serve. In North America, we made meaningful progress improving productivity, particularly across our mill system. Better execution helped us deliver results above expectations and offset persistent inflation as we continue to serve customers and strengthen our position in the market. Given performance to date and expectations for Q4, we expect to outpace industry demand by approximately two percentage points for the full year. In terms of improved execution, Pine Hill is a tangible example of our progress. We completed the roof repairs and restarted the mill ahead of schedule. The team's disciplined work and the commitment to safety allowed us to restore operations safely, limit disruption across the mill system, and minimize the impact on customer box shipments. I want to thank everybody involved. Great work. Packaging Solutions EMEA also improved sequentially, although results were below our expectations. Natural gas costs rose sharply and consumers remained cautious. Realization of previously published paper price increases are on track and cost out actions help mitigate rising input costs. We are also advancing preparations to separate the EMEA business, which I'll discuss later in the call. Across both businesses, the progress is encouraging, but there's more work to do. We expect the current market conditions to persist in the fourth quarter and into 2027. Our priorities remain clear, execute with discipline, manage what we can control, and strengthen the three pillars of our strategy. I'm on slide four. Let me spend a minute on demand in North America. Our box shipments declined approximately 2% year over year in the third quarter, one point better than our estimate of industry demand. In the quarter, we experienced headwinds from the disruption in the West Coast fresh fruit and vegetable business and softness in protein that have come from smaller livestock herds, inflation and a strained consumer. In the fourth quarter, we expect to continue to grow above market along with Modest Recovery and West Coast Agriculture, and we expect to see the traditional seasonal increase. We expect to outperform the industry by more than 1% in the fourth quarter and by approximately 2% for the full year. With that, I'll turn it over to Lance to discuss third quarter results and outlook in more detail.
Lance Loeffler
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Andy. Turning to slide five and our enterprise results for the third quarter. Revenue improves sequentially, primarily through realization of previously published price increases. In EMEA, softer demand in a challenging macroeconomic environment continued to weigh on sales. Earnings and margins improved significantly from the second quarter. In North America, the main drivers were price realization, lower planned outage activity, and the absence of spending associated with the now completed Riverdale machine conversion. Higher than expected inflation and softer demand partially offset those benefits. In EMEA, we continued to face softer demand and rising input costs. The team responded by accelerating cost-out actions, which helped mitigate the impact of these pressures. Third quarter adjusted EBITDA increased to $843 million, including $37 million of corporate expense. Of that expense, $30 million was attributable to higher insurance costs. Our adjusted EBITDA margin improved nearly 400 basis points sequentially to 13.6%, and adjusted operating earnings per share was 37 cents. Despite the improvement in earnings, free cash flow was negative $267 million in the quarter. This reflected cash payments for the second quarter's heavy maintenance spending, annual interest payments on legacy D.F. Smith debt, and an inventory build following our planned outage season. For the full year, we expect to generate free cash flow of approximately $100 to $200 million. Turning to slide six, Packaging Solutions North America increased adjusted EBITDA by 56% sequentially. Price realization and stronger operating performance drove the improvement despite softer demand and higher input costs. Price and Mix were $141 million favorable, reflecting faster realization of previously published price increases announced through June. Volume was $46 million unfavorable. The benefit of one additional shipping day was more than offset by softer demand, including food safety-related disruption in West Coast agriculture, weakness in protein, Seasonally lower daily demand and lower exports. Operations and costs were $85 million favorable. Improved mill efficiency was the key driver. Initial benefits from the Riverdale ramp-up and the absence of spending associated with the completed machine conversion also contributed. We also experienced additional benefits from a full quarter of NORPAC earnings, our 80-20 strategic initiatives, and lower ongoing mill costs. Inflation was higher than we anticipated during the third quarter. Higher diesel, OCC, and energy costs drove a $55 million unfavorable impact on input costs. The temporary Pine Hill shutdown had a $20 million unfavorable impact in the quarter, including roof repairs and business interruption that were partially offset by insurance recovery. We received most of the expected insurance recovery during the quarter. In total, Packaging Solutions North America delivered $663 million of adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter. Moving to our fourth quarter outlook for Packaging Solutions North America on slide seven. Price and mix are expected to be favorable, driven by the continued realization of previously published price increases. The September published price increase is expected to begin flowing through late in the fourth quarter based on our normal realization patterns. Volume is expected to be favorable as seasonally higher daily demand is expected to more than offset two fewer shipping days. Operations and costs are expected to be slightly favorable sequentially, supported by the continued Riverdale ramp up, NORPAC synergies, and the absence of the third quarter Pine Hill expense. As a reminder, We also expect this to be the final quarter of XTAC insurance proceeds, as those benefits will not repeat in 2027. Seasonally higher labor and employee medical benefit costs are also expected to partially offset these benefits. Our outlook assumes continued inflationary pressure, with input costs expected to be unfavorable, primarily driven by higher diesel and OCC costs. As noted in the footnotes, our diesel assumptions reflect futures market pricing and U.S. Department of Energy projections published as of September 29th. These items result in an adjusted EBITDA outlook for Packaging Solutions North America of approximately $700 to $740 million for the fourth quarter. Moving to slide eight, I'd like to take you through our updated full year 2026 outlook for our Packaging Solutions North America business. The third quarter improvement was meaningful and our execution confidence and output is improving, but higher inflation and weaker volume expectations have reduced our full year outlook. Our full year adjusted EBITDA outlook is moving to $2.27 billion to $2.31 billion. Since our second quarter call, Incremental headwinds of approximately $145 million have emerged. The largest drivers are higher diesel fuel and distribution costs, along with increased volume pressure. Those headwinds also include approximately $20 million from the third quarter Pine Hill event, net of insurance recovery, which was not included in our prior outlook. The balance primarily reflects higher employee medical costs and an outage move from the first quarter of 2027 into the fourth quarter of this year. Partially offsetting these headwinds is $35 million of price benefit from faster realization of the June increase and partial realization of the September increase. Together, these items reduce the midpoint of our full year North America packaging outlook by approximately $110 million. Our 80-20 initiatives remain on track. We delivered a significant improvement in the third quarter and expect further progress in the fourth quarter from productivity gains, the Riverdale ramp-up and NORPAC synergies. Many of these actions supporting that improvement are already complete and contributing to results. That execution gives us confidence in the expected fourth quarter step-up even as demand and inflation remain challenging. Turning to Packaging Solutions EMEA on slide nine, Third quarter results improved sequentially but were below our expectations, reflecting continued softness in market demand and persistent cost inflation. Price and mix were $27 million favorable sequentially, primarily reflecting the pass-through of previously published paper price increases and higher prices on external paper sales. Higher paper costs pressured box margins, partially offsetting these benefits. Volume was $32 million unfavorable sequentially as demand across the business remained soft and fell below our expectations. Operations and costs were $76 million favorable sequentially, reflecting cost-out actions, tighter management of controllable costs, and lower variable costs associated with reduced volume. Input costs were $39 million unfavorable, primarily due to higher energy costs. All in, Packaging Solutions EMEA delivered $210 million of adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter. As a reminder, considering the planned separation of the EMEA business and the subsequent UK regulatory requirements, we are no longer including our existing Packaging Solutions EMEA U.S. GAAP financial guidance in our guidance framework and do not anticipate providing such guidance in the future. I'll now turn the call over to Andy to provide an update on the separation planning. Andy?
Andy Silvernail
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Lance. Turning to slide 10 and to the EMEA separation. We are advancing the EMEA separation and are on track to finalize execution. Earlier this month, we issued a press release confirming that we are evaluating a potential sale while continuing the spinoff work in parallel. The release was issued in accordance with UK requirements. As a matter of practice, we do not comment on ongoing M&A discussions So I will not elaborate further beyond what we have already disclosed. Work on the potential spinoff is progressing well. Under that scenario, we expect both companies to have investment grade credit ratings, tailored investment and capital allocation strategies, and compelling financial profiles. We plan for international paper to retain approximately a 20% stake in the independent company, D.S. Smith. Regardless of the path we ultimately take, we are moving swiftly forward with the separation. The progress reflects tremendous focus, discipline, and commitment of the teams working on the separation. I want to thank everyone involved for the excellent work they're doing to prepare both companies for success. As noted earlier, on November 3rd, the EMEA management team will host the D.S. Smith Capital Markets Day, providing a deeper look at the business, its growth strategy, and its financial outlook following separation. This will be an important opportunity to showcase how D.S. Smith is preparing for the next chapter. Let me close on slide 11. Our third quarter improvement is meaningful and the trajectory will continue this year and next. Across both regions, we have lowered structural cost, eliminated inefficient capacity, and invested to improve our customer experience. We've made substantial progress and there's more to do. In North America, we expect further improvement in the fourth quarter and throughout 2027 as cost reductions, productivity gains, and price utilization help us offset inflation. We will continue to simplify the business, invest in customers, and build strength in our most promising markets. The upcoming separation creates the opportunity for two focused regional packaging leaders. EMEA will continue to focus on its self-help story with a step function change in cost position and investing to leverage in its market position and customer relationships. The new international paper will drive significant improvements in profitability and returns in Q4 and in 2027 by building on the progress we've made in cost transformation and commercial depth and breadth. Following the separation, we'll share more details on our financial outlook, capital allocation framework and strategic priorities. Our confidence in future profitable growth is grounded in what we have accomplished and the actions already underway, not an assumption that the environment will get easier. We will be disciplined in execution and focused on creating lasting value for customers, our teammates and shareholders. With that, Let's open the call up for questions.
Conference Operator
Operator
Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, simply press star 1 on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, again press star 1. As a reminder, to ask a question, press star 1. To withdraw your question, again press star 1. We will now pause a moment to compile the Q&A roster. We do ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up question. Your first question comes from Phil Ng with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Phil Ng
Analyst, Jefferies
Hey, guys. Well, Andy, great progress in 3Q in terms of the operations and commercial side of things. That's pretty encouraging. But in terms of the outlook, what are you seeing in terms of what your customers are saying, whether it's North America and Europe, appreciating 3Q got impacted by Some of the ag dynamic, but have you seen that kind of bounce back? Just curious what kind of trends you're seeing in October, November and the opportunity on the commercial side, perhaps to win some new business in 2027 for North America as well.
Andy Silvernail
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, first of all, good morning, Phil. So as I look at North America, what I would say is the market is stable. If I think sequentially, the market is generally stable. and we expect it's going to take some time to work through the fruit and vegetable issue on the West Coast. And what I mean by that is obviously you're starting to see demand at the consumer level picking back up, but that'll take its time to work itself all through the supply chain and then the growing season is next year. So it'll take a little bit of time there, but we don't see any big issues. Protein was a little soft. And if you look at the beef folks as an example, they're getting squeezed right now and consumers appear to be trading down. We're seeing that certainly in the marketplace. And so you're seeing softness there, but generally I would say pretty flat sequentially. Across the board, the biggest issue both on the inbound side and hitting the customer is inflation, right? That's the thing that they're wrestling the most with. And obviously we are wrestling the most with input costs and we're now seeing price flow itself through and becoming positive there. but we expect that to continue. In Europe, it's much the same, just more volatility. I think that's just fair to say. More volatility on the input costs and more volatility that the customer is experiencing in the marketplace and everyone has seen the news of what's going on over there. So there's hesitancy in the marketplace. But generally, North America, pretty flat sequentially. Europe, very modest uptick that we have seen thus far in October but I wouldn't say anything to get real excited about at that stage.
Phil Ng
Analyst, Jefferies
Okay, helpful. And appreciating, you know, some of the dynamics you're seeing in North America is timing, right? I mean, you've got a pretty good box price realization in 3Q and that will continue to build. You know, I think at one point you were talking about aspirationally 20% plus type EBITDA margins in North America. Is that still, you know, a realistic goal for 2027 given the pricing you've realized already or do you need kind of more help on that for it to kind of get to that type of profitability in that business.
Andy Silvernail
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, we're not doing anything in terms of guidance for 2027 at this stage. I think that's prudent given what we're seeing happening with inflation in the marketplace. But I think the trajectory that we're on and our ability to get to something with the two in front of it, I still very much believe that that's possible in the business. And just across the board, we're starting to see traction operationally, which is really good. And if I go back in time, really throughout this entire year in the mill system in particular. It's been clouded a little bit with a couple of events in terms of the ice storm and with Pine Hill. But if you look at the underlying operational improvements over the past year, the team has just done a terrific job. And we're now seeing that momentum. If I think back to this time last year, we were talking about a lot of the issues that had been consistent in that mill system from under investment. and we're seeing fewer of those. They're not zero and I don't expect them to be zero because the investments take time to build, but I really like what we're seeing there. And if you look across the entire system, right, we've in the US, you know, we have closed 20 facilities in total, box plants and mills. And we've really lost no business along that process. And in fact, we've won business. And most importantly, we're seeing the kind of productivity that we talked about in the second quarter and the first quarter. We saw it again in the third. We believe we're going to see it in the fourth, and we'll see it significantly into next year as we lap some of the big projects that we did this year as we bring up NORPAC as Riverdale continues to ramp. And so we feel good about the trajectory that we're on in terms of margin improvement.
Phil Ng
Analyst, Jefferies
Okay. Appreciate the call, Randy. Thank you so much. Thank you. You bet. Thanks, Bill.
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Mark Weintraub with Seaport Research Partners. Please go ahead.
Mark Weintraub
Analyst, Seaport Research Partners
Thanks. Andy, you sort of got in front of my question a little bit, saying you don't want to provide any guidance for next year or to understand. Everybody's trying to work that out. So maybe the controllables and what, as we think about, obviously, where costs go, that's very hard to predict. but we still have a lot of the flow through from price. And is it fair to say that you don't have a lot of the September increase baked into box prices for the fourth quarter? Is that? That is correct. Okay. That's correct. And I think you mentioned Riverdale, you mentioned NORPAC as something that can continue to ramp higher. Are there other things in terms of actions you've done and or have already signaled that we should be contemplating in terms of what can happen drive earnings higher next year in North America?
Andy Silvernail
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, Mark, it's not kind of big nameplate things like facility closures that we've mentioned in the past, but we're now moving to really aggressive reinvestment in productivity. And that's what we're seeing show up now, right? And so our expectation is that we are going to be delivering kind of trendline productivity here into 2027 and feel very good about that as I think about The investments and the costs that we've had in 2024, 25, now 26, we're definitely seeing that ramp in productivity. So you should not expect to see kind of, again, big name plate things, but you should expect to see, you know, meaningfully above trend line improvements in productivity.
Lance Loeffler
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, I'd also add, Mark, that, you know, next year, too, also be the continuation of eliminating the tails on that operating cost for the facilities that we have closed as we continue to sell the real estate and actually fully exit a lot of those decisions that will continue as well so those layers mean a lot maybe not in isolation but as you stack up 20 of them on a monthly basis it's a meaningful number and so we expect to make significant progress in that area too.
Mark Weintraub
Analyst, Seaport Research Partners
Okay that's that's helpful and just maybe If we think about, I guess you're really not talking about Europe at all, but as that process happens, is there anything on like the corporate expense side as you run North America separately that we should be thinking about that would change in 27 versus 26?
Lance Loeffler
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, Mark. So there's an extensive part of this, right, that's aimed at watching the stranded costs. and eliminating those as we go into the course of next year. So that's something that we have been focused on that we're planning for and that we will continue to execute so that those stranded costs don't become a weight on the new IP. Yeah. Okay. And that's a, let me finish. So like that would also include the impact of GCF too, remember? So we sold GCF earlier this year. And so it's a combination of the stranded costs associated with carrying GCF and our European business as they come off the TSA. Yeah.
Andy Silvernail
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
And we'll give more specific guidance when we execute the separation, whether it's a spin or a sale. We will have more information for everybody to give, kind of help you with the modeling more specifically. Correct.
Mark Weintraub
Analyst, Seaport Research Partners
Fair enough. Thank you, guys.
Andy Silvernail
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
You bet. Thanks, Mark.
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of George Staffos with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
George Staphos
Analyst, Bank of America
George Staffos Hi everyone, good morning. How are you? Thanks for the details. I want to, understanding that you're not going to guide on 27, I want to come back a little bit to maybe some of the individual buckets in terms of the bridge. And in particular, Let's call it the 80-20 cost piece or productivity piece as we look out. Is there a way to size what in North America that benefit was this year, 26, and what it could look like in 27? And what the ongoing cost inflation that you've got to hurdle every year might look like and what it looked like this year?
Andy Silvernail
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
So, George, if you take a look at everything we've published so far to date, including the third quarter today and the expectations of the fourth quarter, if you go back and put those bridges together, that will answer the first part of your question really explicitly.
George Staphos
Analyst, Bank of America
But in 80-20, you do include some commercial, I think. So just on the cost outside of where I was going with that, Andy, what you would look like.
Andy Silvernail
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
I think that's trying to parse it too finely, right? Because you really need to look at cost as a total. And I would break it down between input cost and structural cost. And that's how we have it broken down by light item in the DEX. So you can see kind of all that. And so to ascribe a specific number to a specific action, I don't think is the right thing to do because these things are tied together in all the different work that we're doing. and as a specific to 2027, again, we'll guide 27 when we do the fourth quarter call at the end of January.
George Staphos
Analyst, Bank of America
Okay. Appreciate the thoughts on that. Let me try a different area or topic. So looking to the fourth quarter, you guided to what you should do from a volume standpoint in North America and where you think the market is. And You're dealing with significant inflation and raising pricing, and we understand that point. What impact do you think is occurring to your volume or maybe the market as a whole from the impact of pricing on demand? And as you think about the next couple of years in North America from a demand standpoint, what do you think the algorithm looks like? You know, if traditionally we grew one and a half percent How much do we shave off because of inflation at the consumer level or GLPs? What can that growth rate look like given all the work that you're doing to try to raise pricing understandably? Thanks. And I'll turn it over there.
Andy Silvernail
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, George. Appreciate that. A few things in there that I think are important. So number one, I think the question is, what do we believe the long-term demand profile looks like in the business? and our view is it's somewhere in the neighborhood of a half a point to a point of volume growth. That's our view. Right now, because of the inflation that is out there and the pressure on that mid-level and lower level consumer, we expect the markets to be pretty flattish. That's our expectation as we stand here right now. But they certainly are pressuring it. So if you think about that K-shaped economy that all of us have talked about so much, you know, the bottom of the K is hurting. There's no doubt about it. And those folks are making really specific choices about their goods purchases. So I think, you know, as I kind of think about the near term, you know, the next quarter into the early certainly part of 2027, all indicators would say that folks are going to continue to be under pressure as we think about elevated energy costs, whether it's oil, it's natural gas, it's diesel, you pick it. There's no reason at this stage to believe that that's going to fall off in a meaningful way. And that's how we're planning the business is to expect that we'll be living in an elevated level. To be clear, the gyrations around the energy equation have been I mean, really incredible since, you know, since February. If you go to look at the ups and downs and obviously we're all reading the news and hearing about, you know, what may or may not happen post-election in the Gulf. Obviously, we have no control over that, but that volatility is what we're managing and I think managing quite well, actually. But I expect there to be continued pressure on the consumer, which will create pressure on the customer. And we need to continue to drive cost out of our system and raise prices appropriately as we see as the market forms and how we think about the business. So that's how I would characterize it.
George Staphos
Analyst, Bank of America
Well, we would have liked a little bit more color on the cost outs. You're certainly doing a really good job on that, both in terms of EMEA and North America. You did a great job there managing against that. And we'll mark the progress in 27. Thanks very much. Thank you. Thanks, George.
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Detlef Winkelmann with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Detlef Winkelmann
Analyst, J.P. Morgan
Hi guys, good morning. Maybe to start just with your free cash flow guidance that you've given us, I know it's now down to, call it $100 million to $200 million. Are you able to kind of talk through the moving parts? Because if I'm looking at it, you know, obviously we've got an EBITDA line item, we've got tax and interest, we've got your CapEx guidance, but there still seems to be a bit of a gap of, call it, I don't know, three to four hundred million dollars. Is that just working capital? Anything else I might be missing on that side? And then I've got one fuller, if you don't mind.
Lance Loeffler
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, I think that's the one filler. And for us, particularly in the third quarter, right, what you saw in our free cash flow number was the catch-up, right? So on inventory and the build that we have been trying to, you know, that did not happen. So remember we had a huge... Turnaround quarter in the second quarter. Normally we would be preparing for that and building inventory in the first quarter. We were unable to do that because of the winter storm. And so the third quarter is really that the catch-up quarter for us from an inventory perspective. So working capital was a big draw. As you think to the fourth quarter, two perspectives, Detlef. One is The outlook change, which I'd say fundamentally is driven off of a direct result of the lower earnings outlook for the business for the year, based on the things that we've already discussed on the call. But in terms of cash flow itself for the fourth quarter, I would characterize it as stronger operating results, generally speaking, with a big working capital swing back to the positive, now that we've got that inventory build behind us. and then this will be probably the lowest capex quarter for us for the year. So all those events sort of combined a much stronger free cash flow profile in the fourth quarter.
Detlef Winkelmann
Analyst, J.P. Morgan
Okay, great, thanks. And then maybe just one technical question in terms of EMEA, nothing regarding the outlook, just in terms of where do you have your carrying value for EMEA now? I mean, my calcs are saying it's about $3.6 billion, but I just want to confirm.
Andy Silvernail
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
No, let's get back to you to make sure we get that accurately, but that number is going to be very low. Yeah. Okay, great. Thank you. You bet.
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Anthony Pitaneri with Citi. Please go ahead.
Anthony Pettinari
Analyst, Citi
Good morning. Good morning, Anthony. Hey, just following up on CapEx, you know, I understand you're not giving guidance on 27, but As IP becomes kind of North American standalone, I was just wondering if you could kind of talk about sort of the CapEx needs of the North American business as you see it. At the analyst day, I think you gave kind of a 6.5% of sales kind of benchmark out there. But I'm just wondering how we should think in the future about where you are from kind of a CapEx cycle perspective.
Andy Silvernail
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, Anthony, I think the 6.5% you're remembering was specific to Europe, to EMEA. We've said that we're going to be elevated in North America here for a couple more years. And I think that the range that we're in right now, we should expect to see this year, next year, and we'll figure out 28 based on the capitalization needs and the opportunities. But I would say generally the range that we're going to have this year will be similar in 2027. Okay.
Anthony Pettinari
Analyst, Citi
Okay. Okay. That's very helpful. And then just as a follow-up, I don't know if I missed this, but how much of a headwind was West Coast Ag on volumes in the quarter? And then did you mention how volumes have been in October from a North American box size?
Andy Silvernail
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, we haven't broken out the impact of West Coast Ag specifically. We've just noted it in more general terms. We see it within, you know, our book of business customer by customer. So we can kind of see it like that. But we haven't aggregated it as a singular piece and said it's X percent. So we haven't broken that out, you know, to that discreet a level. And then as you look right now, what I would say is, look, things are generally kind of similar in the U.S. As I look through the month, it just doesn't look a whole lot different, right? It feels like the consumer and therefore the customer is generally cautious and dealing with inflation.
Anthony Pettinari
Analyst, Citi
Okay, that's helpful. I'll turn it over. Thank you. Thanks.
Conference Operator
Operator
The next question comes from the line of Hilary Cacanando with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Hilary Cacanando
Analyst, Deutsche Bank
Hi, thank you for taking my question. In terms of pricing, when would you expect to have substantially all of the September price increase reflected in Vax pricing?
Lance Loeffler
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, Hilary, just for us, it's probably fully realized probably the beginning of Q2. End of Q1, something like that. It takes us about four or five months to fully realize and work it through.
Hilary Cacanando
Analyst, Deutsche Bank
Got it. Thank you. And then in terms of the expectation to have outperformance versus the industry, is it primarily share gains or is there a mixed component there as well?
Andy Silvernail
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
It's mostly share gains. So it's business that we've won in prior periods that are now flowing through. between large and small customers. So it's been pretty consistent there.
Hilary Cacanando
Analyst, Deutsche Bank
Got it. Great. Thank you very much.
Andy Silvernail
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you.
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Anoysia Shaw with UBS. Please go ahead.
Anoja Shah
Analyst, UBS
Good morning, everyone. Good morning. Good morning. Morning. I wanted to ask about your tons in the back of your deck. So I noticed that on a sequential basis, your boxed tons fell by about 5%, but your container board tons increased by about 14%. Can you just tell me about what's happening?
Conference Operator
Operator
Pardon the interruption, Ms. Shaw. Your connection, we cannot understand you.
Anoja Shah
Analyst, UBS
How is this? Can you hear me better now?
Andy Silvernail
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
No, it's broken up. Let's have her come back on at the end.
Conference Operator
Operator
Understood. Your next question comes from the line of Mike Boland with Truist Securities. Please go ahead.
Mike Boland
Analyst, Truist Securities
Thank you, Andy, Lance, Mandi, and team for taking my questions. Lance, if I heard you correctly, you mentioned that 4Q should benefit from $35 million of faster realization of the June price increase and also partial realization of the September price increase. Yeah. In terms of the faster realization for June, what has allowed you to realize the June price increase at a faster pace?
Lance Loeffler
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
I think it's just the way that we have forecasted the business. We look at traditional patterns and the way that we realize it. I think our teams have done a really good job of working the contracts, being forward with the customer, and just Executing quicker.
Andy Silvernail
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, if you think about it, Mike, right? You know, these things are generally written into contracts and then you have to have a piece that's written into contracts and then you have a piece that is not right. And when you get faster realization, one of two things tends to happen. Either with a piece that isn't contractual, right? You're able to get it into the market and you're able to get it to stick quicker, which is, again, to Lance's point, we've done that a little bit faster than what our expectation would be. Not enormously faster, but a little bit faster. and on the contract side what it really is is just diligence of making sure that you execute to the contract right because if not it can take longer right that can lag and so we've got to make sure that we go we're working with our customer base and executing with the contract so those two things typically are the are the levers and we're just seeing a little bit better uptake on the first piece and on the second we're just keeping a discipline with the execution within the contract language.
Mike Boland
Analyst, Truist Securities
Got it. And Andy, would it be fair to say that maybe there could be some upside with the September price increase as well? I know Lance called out, you know, late 1Q, early 2Q. Could that be even pulled forward if you guys are on top of enforcing?
Andy Silvernail
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
I think what we've guided, we feel pretty good about, you know, generally. So I think that's the number I would use.
Mike Boland
Analyst, Truist Securities
Got it. Great. Perfect. And one quick follow up. In terms of Riverdale, how is that mill operating? When do you expect to be at full utilization? And can you just remind us what the startup costs were in 3Q and when those should wind down?
Lance Loeffler
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Startup costs, do you have that handy?
Andy Silvernail
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Startup costs in 3Q was, yeah. I'll have to get back to you on that, Mike. Sorry, don't have that number specifically. But in terms of the ramp, right, if you recall, it basically ramps up through first quarter and second quarter of next year in a full ramp. But what I'll say is the team is doing a really nice job. We are on schedule, kind of no major issues. And so kudos to the team. Those of you who are really familiar with this stuff, this is very complex. And the team has done an excellent job. And same thing on Pine Hill, right? That mill operations team, if you think back over the last six months or nine months, what they have handled and handled very, very well. and Jason Handel, who is the leader of the business. He's just done an exceptional job, he and his team, and so real kudos to them.
Mike Boland
Analyst, Truist Securities
Thanks very much.
Conference Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our question and answer session. I would now like to turn it back over to Andy Silvernail for closing comments.
Andy Silvernail
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Well, thank you. Thank you very much. And Anosha, I'm sorry you got cut off, but we look forward to talking to you separately in our one-on-one sessions. Just thank you to everybody for your attention to IP and your interest in IP. And really, thank you to the teams. This has been an incredibly turbulent time over the last couple of years in terms of what's happened in the external markets and how the teams have focused and executed and we're seeing that start to ramp now and hit in the sequential numbers that we've seen and what we believe will happen in the fourth quarter and as we look forward into 2027. And so look, the markets are going to be soft. We're going to be dealing with accelerated inflation. We all know that at this stage. We don't believe there's anything that's going to change that. But our focus is controlling what we can control and that is the main thing is commercially and operationally is for us to be laser focused on the things that we can control and the levers that we can pull and enable us to get the kind of operating leverage that we know is possible in the business. So again, thank you to everybody involved and we look forward to talking to you in a quarter. Thank you.
Conference Operator
Operator
Once again, we'd like to thank you for participating in International Papers third quarter 2026 earnings call. You may now disconnect.