KTB Kontoor Brands, Inc.
$81.96
Kontoor Brands, Inc. Q3 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript
AI Conference Call Analysis
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Conference Call Operator
Greetings. Welcome to the Contour Brands Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are on a listen-only mode. A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. Please note this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Erin Murphy, Global Head of Finance and Operations. Please proceed.
Erin Murphy
Global Head of Finance and Operations
Thank you, Operator, and welcome to Contour Brands' third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Participants on today's call will make forward-looking statements. These statements are based on current expectations and are subject to uncertainties that could cause actual results to materially differ. These uncertainties are detailed in documents filed with the SEC. We urge you to read our risk factors, cautionary language, and other disclosures contained in those reports. Amounts referred to on today's call will often be on an adjusted dollar basis, which we clearly define in the news release issued earlier this morning that can be found on our website at contourbrands.com. Reconciliations of gap measures to adjusted amounts are available in the supplemental financial tables included in today's news release. These tables identify and quantify excluded items and provide management's view of why this information is useful to investors. Unless otherwise noted, revenue growth rates referred to on this call will be on a constant currency basis, which excludes the translation impact of changes in foreign currency rates. Reported results and our outlook are stated on a continuing operations basis unless otherwise noted. Joining me on today's call are Contour Brands Chief Executive Officer and Chairman, Scott Baxter, and President and Chief Financial Officer, Joe Alkire. Following our prepared remarks, we will open the call for your questions. Scott?
Scott Baxter
Chief Executive Officer and Chairman
Thanks, Erin, and thank you all for joining us. I want to begin my remarks by acknowledging a defining milestone for the Contour organization. On Monday, we successfully closed the sale of the lead business to Authentic Brands Group. The culmination of this transaction reflects the tremendous amount of work and commitment across both organizations, and I want to thank everyone who contributed to a thoughtful and professional transition. For Contour, the closing of this transaction meaningfully strengthens our portfolio and financial profile. It enables us to entirely focus our talent, investment capacity, and execution against our greatest value creation opportunities in Wrangler and Helly Hansen. It also improves our capital allocation optionality. This morning we announced that we intend to repurchase $450 million of shares, including a $400 million accelerated share repurchase program. Joe will cover the details shortly, but this underscores our financial strength and confidence in our organization and the future growth opportunities. So where do we go from here? The vestiture of Lee is one of several intentional moves we have made to simplify our portfolio and shift the organization towards a more growth-oriented mindset, including the sale of non-core assets like Rockin' Republic, the optimization of our own manufacturing in Mexico, the execution and completion of Project Genius, and the acquisition of Helly Hansen. These deliberate moves will enable us to accelerate growth, create investment capacity, and drive stronger returns moving forward. Our strategy has evolved. We are entering this next chapter as a more focused company built around two iconic brands with distinct roles in our portfolio. Wrangler is our balanced grower. We will protect and build the core business while accelerating growth in women's, D2C, and non-denim categories. We expect this to support years of durable revenue growth, gross margin expansion, and strong cash generation. Helly Hansen is our growth engine. We will accelerate growth in the U.S., win in premium outdoor, and power workwear globally. The brand has significant white space across geographies, categories, and channels, with the potential for double-digit growth in meaningful gross and operating margin expansion over time. We also know that both brands will benefit by being part of Contour. Our multi-brand operating platform provides scale and expertise that each brand could not replicate as effectively on its own. I'd like to highlight another important milestone our teams achieved. In September, we welcomed investors and analysts to Norway for Heli Hansen's first ever Investor Day. The event was an important opportunity to introduce the depth of the leadership team, demonstrate the strength and authenticity of the brand, and provide a clear roadmap to unlock its global potential. Results in the third quarter were in line with our expectations and provided further evidence of the progress we are making against this strategy as we build the foundation for growth. Our workwear and sport businesses both grew in the quarter, and performance reflected improved full price selling, gross margin expansion, Expense Synergies, and Disciplined Inventory Management. Turning to Wrangler, in the third quarter, growth was led by direct-to-consumer, female, and international. Revenue growth was also supported by new distribution gains as we reach new customers within our workwear and female businesses. We will continue to build on Wrangler's authority in Western and core male bottoms while increasing investment in future growth opportunities in areas such as female, and a focused full-price retail and digital experience. With our team now entirely focused on Wrangler, I am confident our best years are ahead. Last quarter, we discussed our primary initiatives, build Wrangler momentum from a position of strength and sharper focus following the lead divestiture, integrate and accelerate Helly Hansen, and finish Project Genius strong. We continue to make meaningful progress against these initiatives while funding our investment roadmap Through project genius, integration synergies, and an always-on cost excellence mindset. As we look to 2027, I am confident we are well-positioned to translate these priorities into faster execution and stronger returns. Before turning it over to Joe, I want to recognize our teams around the world. We have asked a great deal of the organization this year. Our people have managed a significant portfolio transition, continued the integration of Helly Hansen, Invested behind our brands and executed through a dynamic consumer and operating environment. Through it all, we expect to deliver consistent revenue growth, over 300 basis points of gross margin expansion, and more than 30% earnings growth. We are strengthening our capability to fund growth, invest in our brands, and position Contour to win in any environment. Our team's focus, resilience, and commitment give me great confidence in Contour's future and the opportunities ahead. Joe?
Joe Alkire
President and Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Scott, and thank you all for joining us today. I'd like to start by extending my appreciation and gratitude to our teams around the world for the significant effort that went into completing the divestiture of Lee. The closing of the transaction was the culmination of many months of hard work and commitment to prepare the business for a very complex global separation with multiple parties involved. With the support of our partners, our teams delivered a successful outcome for Lee, Authentic Brands Group, and Contour. For Contour, it represents an important milestone on our value creation and transformation journey and positions us for stronger growth within our core addressable markets of denim, outdoor, and workwear. With the divestiture of Lee, we have solidified our foundation. We are concentrating our focus, resources, and investment where we have the strongest right to win. while evolving our operating model and building more robust enterprise capabilities to unlock accelerated growth moving forward. As Scott mentioned, in September we hosted our first Helly Hansen Investor Day. We outlined a focused strategy built around three priorities, supercharge the U.S., win in premium outdoor, and power workwear. Our 2030 financial commitments reflect our confidence in the Helly team and the global opportunity for the brand. We expect to grow revenue at a double-digit CAGR to more than $1.1 billion, double the operating margin of the business, and deliver more than $500 million of cumulative cash flow. We're off to a great start as Heli continues to perform ahead of our acquisition plan. Looking forward, we're pleased with the growth of our spring-summer 2027 order book in sport, and we just kicked off our fall-winter 2027 selling season, and feedback from the marketplace has been strong. Within Workwear, we're bringing new technical innovation around heat stress, cooling technologies, and weather protection, which will continue to drive our momentum. From an integration perspective, we remain on track to complete the majority of non-IT activities by year end. At the same time, we're progressing the IT systems migration, advancing supply chain and planning improvements, Building dedicated sport and workwear capabilities and investing in the talent and marketing to support Heli's growth acceleration. Now let's review our third quarter results. Revenue from continuing operations was $685 million, increasing 3% compared to prior year, driven by 3% growth in both Wrangler and Heli Hansen. Within Wrangler, global revenue was $485 million, an increased 3%. Growth was led by direct-to-consumer, female, international, and distribution expansion. U.S. revenue increased 2%, driven by 7% growth in direct-to-consumer and 2% growth in wholesale. New distribution gains contributed to growth, while the core business continues to navigate a more dynamic consumer environment and conservative inventory management by our largest retail partners. International revenue increased 7%, driven by 26% growth in direct-to-consumer and 5% growth in wholesale. During the quarter, revenue in our denim and non-denim bottoms business increased at a mid-single-digit rate, consistent with our year-to-date results. That said, we saw POS trends in our men's bottoms business soften from 3% growth July year-to-date to 1% growth in September. Despite POS variability, which we have navigated throughout the last two years, the Wrangler brand continued to gain market share over the last 12 months and in September, the latest data we have available. Our largest retail partners continue to manage inventory levels conservatively in light of the consumer environment. At the end of the third quarter, inventory levels at these partners were down at a high single-digit rate compared to the prior year. This is not a new dynamic for us. The Wrangler brand is strong. Through operational discipline and execution excellence, we remain confident in our ability to drive consistent, profitable growth in our largest points of distribution. Our strategic focus remains on protecting the core men's bottoms business, maintaining the brand's leadership in Western, scaling female and non-denim categories, and expanding full price brand enhancing DTC. As we approach the holiday season, were balancing near-term execution and disciplined marketplace management with the investments required to accelerate Wrangler growth over time. Turning to Helly Hansen, global revenue was $191 million, an increased 3%. Helly's performance during the quarter was consistent with our expectations, and year-to-date, revenue increased 8% on a reported pro forma basis ahead of our acquisition plan. Sport revenue was $147 million and increased 2% compared to prior year as growth was led by our core categories, including sailing and winter sports. Workwear revenue was $44 million and increased 4% compared to prior year. Workwear was particularly strong in the U.S. and the Alps regions. Moving to China. As a reminder, Helly Hansen's revenue results exclude the direct contribution of the China Joint Venture as the results are not consolidated under the equity method of accounting. Third quarter results were strong with revenue increasing approximately 65% along with strong profitability. Moving to the remainder of the P&L, adjusted gross margin increased 230 basis points to 48.1%. The increase was driven by project genius and the impact of favorable business mix and pricing net of changes in product costs. Adjusted SG&A was $229 million, or 33.4% of revenue. The increase in SG&A expenses was driven by incremental overhead and other expenses previously allocated to LEED, increased investments in direct-to-consumer, demand creation and technology, partially offset by the benefits from Project Genius. Adjusted operating income was $101 million, an increase of 6%. including incremental overhead and other expenses previously allocated to Lee as compared to the prior year. Adjusted operating margin was 14.7%, an increase of 40 basis points. Adjusted EPS from continuing operations was $1.50, an increase of 40%. Reported EPS from continuing operations was a loss of 62 cents including a $1.73 non-cash charge related to the migration of Helly Hansen intellectual property supporting integration synergies, a simplified operating structure, and a more optimized tax platform moving forward. Turning to the balance sheet, inventory at the end of the third quarter was $570 million, down 6% compared to prior year, driven by lower inventory at Helly Hansen. During the third quarter, we began to see increased supply chain volatility and longer lead times resulting in delays of product deliveries. We remain focused on disciplined inventory management while making the appropriate investments to support our future growth plans and maintain service levels for our consumers and our customers. We finished the quarter with $1.1 billion in long-term debt and $56 million of cash on hand. Our $500 million revolver remains undrawn. During the quarter, we repurchased $20 million of common stock, and year-to-date, we repurchased $95 million of common stock. We ended the quarter with $680 million remaining under our existing share repurchase authorization. And as previously announced, our board declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.54 per share. Moving on to tariffs. As of the end of the third quarter, we've received essentially all IEPA tariff refunds. As a reminder, during the first quarter of 2026, we recognized a net receivable of $54 million for IEPA tariffs previously paid. We have not recorded a receivable for Section 122 tariffs, which have also been ruled invalid, and continue to monitor ongoing litigation related to the potential recovery of these tariffs. The global trade environment remains dynamic. We are currently subject to tariff rates of between 10 and 12.5% under Section 301. Based on current visibility, our outlook now assumes a 12.5% Section 301 tariff rate in the fourth quarter. As a reminder, our outlook excludes the impact of the 2025 related IEPA tariffs and associated refunds. Before turning to our updated outlook, a few details related to the divestiture of Lee. We closed the transaction on November 2nd and received $698 million in net proceeds. including networking capital and other closing adjustments. The net proceeds received exclude the tax on the gain on sale, which we expect to pay in the second quarter of 2027, and also exclude the $250 million earn-out opportunity we have in future years based on the performance of Lee under ABG's ownership. We are deploying the net proceeds and our free cash flow toward $450 million of share repurchases in the fourth quarter along with $280 million of voluntary debt payments as capital allocation remains an important part of our value creation framework. Now turning to our updated outlook, which now reflects the final terms of the divestiture of LEED. In addition, we are also updating our full year outlook to reflect stronger gross margin expansion and earnings growth, as well as increased inventory investments to support our future growth plans and navigate current supply chain volatility. Our updated outlook now includes the following assumptions. We now expect revenue to approximate $2.68 billion, representing growth of approximately 12% compared to the prior year, including the impact of the 53rd week in 2025. Fourth quarter revenue is expected to increase approximately 2%, excluding the impact of the 53rd week. We continue to expect Helly Hansen revenue to increase approximately 5% in the fourth quarter, consistent with our previous expectations. We now expect Wrangler revenue to increase approximately 1%, reflecting a moderation in POS trends and more conservative inventory management by our largest retail partners. As a reminder, the 53rd week in 2025 benefited Helly Hansen revenue by approximately $3 million and Wrangler revenue by approximately $40 million. Full-year adjusted gross margin is now expected to be in the range of 50.0 to 50.2%, representing an increase of 350 to 370 basis points compared to prior year. Our updated outlook primarily reflects stronger-than-expected year-to-date results, partially offset by higher freight expenses and the foreign currency transaction impact of the strengthening U.S. dollar. Adjusted SG&A is now expected to increase approximately 25%, driven by incremental overhead and other expenses previously allocated to Lee as compared to our prior outlook. Our outlook continues to include a full year of Helly Hansen expenses and the previously announced brand building and growth enabling investments. Adjusted operating income is now expected to approximate $400 million, an increase of approximately 12% compared to the prior year. This compares to our prior outlook of $413 to $420 million. The change in our operating income outlook is primarily a result of $15 million of incremental overhead and other expenses previously allocated to the Lee, which are largely offset by fees expected to be received for services we will provide in support of the transition of the Lee business and classified as other income in our P&L moving forward. For the full year and based on the final terms of the Lee divestiture, We expect overhead and other expenses previously allocated to Lee to approximate $55 million. We continue to expect to fully offset the impact of these costs over a 12-18 month period through mitigating cost actions, including restructuring, and fees expected to be received for services we will provide in support of the transition of the Lee business. Adjusted EPS is now expected to be $5.40, representing growth of 31%. For the full year, we now anticipate an effective tax rate of 18.5%, reflecting higher than expected tax synergies from the Helly Hansen integration. With the divestiture of Lee completed, we now expect to repurchase $450 million of common stock in the fourth quarter, including $400 million through an accelerated share repurchase program. As a result, the full-year weighted average share count is expected to approximate $54.8 million including less than 50 million shares outstanding at the end of the fourth quarter. Total cash from operations is now expected to approximate $325 million. Our updated outlook reflects the loss of Lee operating cash flow for the remainder of the year and higher one-time costs to separate the business, incremental overhead, and other expenses previously allocated to Lee and additional inventory investments. Our outlook now assumes Voluntary term loan payments of $280 million, and we continue to anticipate returning to less than 1.5 times net leverage by the end of 2026. For the full year, including the use of proceeds from the divestiture of Lee, we expect to return approximately $1 billion of capital through a combination of share repurchases, dividends, and voluntary debt payments. Before I wrap up, I want to provide some initial perspectives on 2027. With our planned share repurchases in the fourth quarter and our plans to mitigate the expenses previously allocated to Lee, we have strong visibility to 2027 adjusted EPS from continuing operations of at least $6.60, representing more than 20% growth. Additionally, we're confident in cash flow from continuing operations of at least $325 million for next year. which reflects the strong cash generation of both Wrangler and Helly Hansen. Our initial cash flow outlook for 2027 includes elevated one-time costs to support the Helly Hansen systems migration and anticipated restructuring and other costs required to fully offset the expenses previously allocated to Lee. Beyond 2027, we expect our cash flow profile to normalize and exceed $400 million. While we will provide a more detailed 2027 outlook on our Q4 earnings call, we expect revenue growth at Helly Hansen to be consistent with the plan presented at the investor day. We have good visibility into the spring-summer 2027 order book for sport, continued momentum in workwear, as well as solid growth plans for fall-winter 2027 across the business. For Wrangler, We expect a positive impact from recent distribution gains and continued momentum in female, international, and DTC. And we expect our recent brand building and growth enabling investments to contribute more meaningfully as we move through 2027. That said, we are taking a prudent approach in planning the business and anticipate more moderate levels of POS to continue through at least the first half of next year and expect our retail partners to continue to manage inventory levels conservatively. Regarding product costs, we have good visibility into the first half of 2027 and expect a modest inflationary environment, excluding the impact of tariffs. We expect freight costs to remain elevated and expect gross margins in the first half of 2027 to be impacted by higher tariff rates as we anniversary the IEPA tariffs that were invalidated following the Supreme Court ruling. Assuming current Section 301 tariff rates remain in effect, We expect approximately $30 million of incremental expense on a full-year basis, primarily in the first half, from higher tariffs as compared to 2026. We expect product costs in the second half of 2027 to be more inflationary relative to the first half based on current visibility. Despite these headwinds, we have strong mitigating actions in place, including the work we've done in the area of pricing analytics, synergies from Helly Hansen, and other cost actions and efficiencies within the supply chain, in addition to our structural mix-related gross margin drivers. Contour has a proven track record of winning and delivering strong TSR regardless of the environment, and execution excellence along with disciplined capital stewardship remains a critical focus of our organization. Now, a few closing comments. I'd like to take a moment and recognize the entire Contour organization. We've been executing against an ambitious growth and transformation agenda while continuing to deliver strong results in a difficult and at times unpredictable operating environment. Our organization has displayed incredible resolve, passion, and excitement for the opportunity ahead, and I couldn't be more proud of our people and what they've accomplished. We've reached an important inflection point in Contour's evolution. Project Genius, the first iteration of our transformation program, is complete. The lead transaction is complete. Helly Hansen is performing ahead of its acquisition plan and has a clear strategy to accelerate growth and expand margins. Wrangler is strong and remains a steady, highly profitable, and cash-generative global brand positioned to accelerate growth over time. We're bringing greater focus and clarity to the enterprise, investing behind our highest return opportunities and leveraging cost excellence to fund sustainable growth while maintaining capital allocation optionality. Together, these actions further enhance Contour's long-term TSR model. As I look forward, I'm confident in our strategy and our transformation, the organizational agility we're creating, and the optionality embedded in our model as we position Contour for its next chapter of growth and success. This concludes our prepared remarks and I'll now turn the call back to the operator.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. We will now conduct a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment as we pull for the first question. The first question comes from Ike Burchell with Wells Fargo. Please proceed.
Ike Boruchow
Analyst, Wells Fargo
Hey, good morning Scott and Joe. Two from me. I was going to ask about the 4Q and it sounds like the early part of 27 on the outlook seems to be a little bit below What you guys had kind of expected maybe three months ago, it seems like it's largely Wrangler POS. Maybe Joe, just a little bit more, or Scott, what you saw over the past couple months and why you're expecting that to kind of continue for the next several quarters.
Joe Alkire
President and Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, sure. Morning, I'll start. So on the outlook, we narrowed the revenue range we previously communicated. Heli is on plan. The growth outlook for Wrangler is more tempered based on What we saw towards the end of Q3 and a little bit more caution heading into November and December, but our revenue range is squarely at the midpoint of what we provided at the beginning of this year, despite what's been certainly a more dynamic environment. On the profitability side, we raised our gross margin outlook. We raised our EPS outlook again, which includes incremental expenses from the divestiture of Lee, as well as higher freight costs and effects that we've seen Start to hit us late in the third quarter and into the fourth quarter. So with the lead transaction now closed, we've updated the outlook to reflect the final accounting of that, including the higher stranded costs, the TSAs, and some mitigating actions we have in place in addition to stronger capital allocation as a result of the higher proceeds. When you put it all together, our outlook reflects about 12% revenue growth and about 30% EPS growth, and we'll leave this year with our balance sheet in really good shape.
Scott Baxter
Chief Executive Officer and Chairman
And, Ike, I would add that we kind of lined everything up relative to the current inventory levels that we have, the POS that we've seen through October, and how we think the business is going to play out through the rest of the year. So I think we've done a really nice, prudent job as far as looking at our business and understanding all the inputs. But the thing that probably has me the most excited is that, you know, and you heard me say this last call, and I think this is really important, talked about spending half of our intellectual capacity on Lee. And, you know, about 24 hours ago, that switch flipped. And now we're at 100% of our energy now here is on Wrangler from a denim standpoint. And I would tell you, Ike, I think the one thing that I've come to realize over the last couple of weeks is that it really wasn't a 50-50 split. As you have two brands that are really performing differently, you know, Wranglers performed very well for the last years, and Lee had a little bit more of a struggle. But then we went ahead and spent an incredible amount of time, energy, and money the last couple years to put it in a much better place, and then obviously we sold it during that time. But what I came to realize is we were spending 60% to 65% of our capacity on Lee to get it to that position. So from my vantage point, I couldn't be more optimistic heading into 27 because I know the talent that's in this organization and what we can do with that talent fully focused now going forward. And back to Hellie and Joe's comments there, you know, Hellie's in a really interesting position. This year, we've already seen snow out west. We've seen it in the Rockies. We've seen it in the Tetons. We didn't see snow out west until the beginning of the year last year, January, February. and I've been in this outdoor business for a really long time and I will tell you snow this early really matters. People are setting their trips up now, they're getting their skis ready, they're preparing to head out and go out early and maybe get two or three trips out And Ike, I'll take your 27 question.
Joe Alkire
President and Chief Financial Officer
You know, which is a really important point that we want to make sure that people understand. So we committed to fully offsetting the EPS dilution from the Lee transaction over a 12 to 18 month period, and we remain fully committed to that. When we announced the sale of Lee, our earnings per share outlook was about $6.75. So the floor we set next year of 660 gets you almost all the way there on the earlier end of that timeline, given the all the moving parts to our business with the divestiture of Lee. We thought it would be helpful to set a floor on 2027 EPS. And the bridge to that 660 is really just the impact of the buyback and the fees we expect to receive in support of the transition to the business, which will immediately begin to offset the stranded costs in 2027 before any other mitigating actions we plan to take. So the 660 is a floor. We would ask you to think about it. You bet. Thanks, Ike.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Next question comes from Matthew Boss with JP Morgan. Please proceed. Matthew, your line is live. Next question comes from Brooke Roach with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.
Brooke Roach
Analyst, Goldman Sachs
Good morning and thank you for taking our question. Scott Joe is hoping you could provide some additional color on Helly Hansen as you begin to build into new distribution. Can you share any details on how your early expansion in the House of Sport is going and the expectations for the number of doors there, the impact that this has on your fourth quarter 26 outlook, and how you're thinking about building into new distribution as you build into the 150th anniversary of Helly Hansen into 2027?
Scott Baxter
Chief Executive Officer and Chairman
Yeah, yeah, for sure, Brooke. Very excited about being in the House of Sports, and I would tell you for several reasons. One, it's a go-to destination, Dick's Sporting Goods and House of Sports, for all those ski enthusiasts and outdoor, winter outdoor activities. So being there, you have to be there if you're a player. So you've got to have prominence on the floor. I've been in the business a long time, and I can't tell you, and I hope that you have a chance to go see how impressed I was with the merchandising and the set that we've put out. So Our product on the floor looks terrific. Now, it just got there, so we're in time for the season to start, so I feel really good about that. We'll be in 18 stores when we're done. I feel very confident how we're going to do because I've had a chance to look at the floor and see the set, so I feel really good about that. And I think the thing that's most important for me is we've just hired CJ King to be our general manager for North America. As you know, we've just kicked off an equity campaign and haven't had one in a very long time. We're bringing a lot of energy to Helly Hansen in this North American region, specifically the United States. And that is all dovetailing together at the right time. And it just feels really positive moving forward. So what we need to do and what we need to have is really good weather out west, which has started early, which is, and I can't tell you how important that is to outdoor business. You know that. So that's come into play, which is really important. Our product looks good. and I think that we'll get a very good read, Brooke, and we'll be able to talk about this in our February call on how that product has done in the fourth quarter, which we will make sure we do, and how that has helped us to see more product going forward, and we'll have some more updates for you on that in the February call, but I would sit back and say that I am Very optimistic on Helly Hansen in the fourth quarter. Optimistic even more in 27. And feel good that lots of really good things are lining up relative to what's most important. Our technical ability there, how the product looks, the team and leadership that we have in place, the campaign, the investment that we're making, the focus in the business. And you know what? It really matters, but snow in the mountains. So for me, feel pretty good.
Joe Alkire
President and Chief Financial Officer
and Brooke, I'll take the number. So for the full year, we continue to expect high single-digit growth for Heli on a reported basis. That's got a little bit of a FX benefit in it. Most of that is behind us. Really, all of that's behind us now as the majority of that impacted the first part of the year. For Q4, we expect growth of about 5% X to 53rd week. That has not changed in terms of our expectation. October was actually ahead of our of our internal plans, and the growth we have contemplated is supported by our order book visibility, current demand trends that we're seeing from an at-once perspective, and expanding distribution. So we expect the growth going forward to be very well balanced across both sport and workwear, across geographies, and across our product categories, and we expect 2027 to be right in line with the investor day that we presented in September.
Brooke Roach
Analyst, Goldman Sachs
That's really helpful, Collar. Maybe just one quick follow-up for you, Joe. Can you unpack the change in your cash flow outlook a little bit more and talk to the specific one-timers and the sizing of those that you're seeing in both 26 and 27?
Joe Alkire
President and Chief Financial Officer
Yep, sure, Brooke. So on the cash flow, we now expect total cash from operations of about $325 million, including the contribution from the lead business through October. That compares to to our previous expectation of $450 million. So we've lowered the outlook for the following reasons. There's about a $50 million additional inventory investment in both Wrangler and Helly Hansen to support our future growth plans and maintain service levels in light of the recent supply chain. Volatility that I spoke about in the prepared remarks, we view this investment as transitory. There's nothing structural here. We expect to carry higher inventory levels through the first half of 27 as the supply chain heals. This is core inventory, so we see very minimal risk. From a Lee perspective, that accounts for about $50 million. That's lower than expected cash contribution from Lee year-to-date, as well as the lost operating cash flow from Lee for November and December. And then we've got about $25 million of higher one-time costs to support the separation of Lee on what became a more expedited close timeline. So we did receive higher than expected net proceeds from the sale. That was due in part to networking capital and other adjustments, which the proceeds get classified in cash from investing, as you know. So net-net, the changes for Lee are mainly geography-related, and we expect to have a higher cash balance by the end of the year. We're confident in the initial cash flow outlook that we provided of $325 million. That does carry some elevated one-time costs as we support the Helly Hansen IT migration, as well as the restructuring costs required to fully offset the stranded costs from the sale of leads. So by the time we get beyond 27, you'll start to see a more normalized cash flow, cash generation for Contour going forward, which we expect to exceed $400 million.
Brooke Roach
Analyst, Goldman Sachs
Great. Thanks so much. I'll pass it on.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Thanks, Brooke. The next question comes from Matthew Boss with JP Morgan. Please proceed.
Matthew Boss
Analyst, JPMorgan
Great. Thanks. So, Scott, maybe relative to the 3% growth across both Wrangler and Heli in this quarter, could you elaborate on drivers of the fourth quarter acceleration at Heli versus the moderation at Wrangler? But more so, if you could touch on current underlying demand trends versus sell-in at each of the brands.
Scott Baxter
Chief Executive Officer and Chairman
Sure. Thanks, Matt. Thanks for the question. So from a Heli standpoint, real high level of confidence. I think that we're heading into the fourth quarter in a really good spot because I think our product is spot on with the consumer right now. I think we're getting the weather trends that we need to be successful. And all I mean by that is I think everybody that is going to head out west, they're going to get two or three chances to head out west now this year instead of just one like last year. And one of the things that I've learned in the business is that when you only have one chance to go out, you don't replace your jacket, your pants, you don't replace your outerwear. But when you know you're going to go ahead and use it two or three times in a season, you go ahead and replace it. So that's really, really important to us. I think the other thing, Matt, is people are going to see our product now in a much more highlighted area, and that would be the House of Sports. So they haven't seen it there before, people shop in that area, and when they see that Thank you so much for joining us. All dovetails nicely with our equity campaign. Feel real good about that. From a Wrangler standpoint, we're in line with kind of how we're thinking right now and how we're seeing the business. But I do go back to my commentary about how we're just going to be so focused now on Wrangler. And to me, it's probably the most exciting thing I think that's happened in the company in a long time. There's a brand that has permission to grow in such a significant way. I mean, Matt, We haven't even touched the opportunity that lies out there with female. It is so significant and so big. And every time we do something, I'll give you a great example, Bespoke. Every time we do something like that and we put out really good product, the female consumer just takes to it immediately. So they really want to see us do more. We know the clientele and the opportunity is out there. We know there's a huge opportunity for Wrangler and non-denim, so we're really focused in that too. and then Workwear also. So feel real good about that and more importantly feel good about the fact that we're getting more in line from an inventory standpoint. I think everybody here saw that our inventories were down 6% for the quarter. We need to go ahead and be a little bit stronger than that. We've been very prudent in how we've been running it and supply chain's been a little bit bumpy but I think you're going to see our inventories get more in line with where we think business is going to be and we're going to support the business that way. So optimistic going forward but I'll tell you If I think about this, my optimism really lies in 27 with both of these brands. We have done so much work to position this company from the standpoint of we are ready to accelerate this company next year from a focus, from an investment standpoint, from a talent standpoint. So that's kind of where I'm at. Joe, would you add anything there?
Joe Alkire
President and Chief Financial Officer
Matt, just some additional color on growth for Heli. I'll give you just the full year numbers, but Q4 would certainly be representative. We've got mid to high single-digit growth across both sport and workwear contemplated. You've got high single to low double-digit growth in regions like the U.S. and the Alps, for example, which are obviously focuses of the strategy. You've got really balanced growth across both wholesale and retail. So the growth we're seeing at Heli is really broad-based.
Matthew Boss
Analyst, JPMorgan
Great color. Now, Joe, just on the bridge to your earnings floor of 660 next year, what level of revenue growth are you embedding relative to low single digits to exit this year? And just your overall confidence in this guide, given the current order book visibility and idiosyncratic portfolio growth opportunities for next year?
Joe Alkire
President and Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, Matt, I certainly appreciate the question. We're not going to get into specifics. We tried to give you guys some incremental shaping as we sit in November on both brands relative to the top line. I think fair to assume we expect growth in both brands. We expect Heli growth to be consistent with the investor day that we just outlined in September. And for Wrangler, you've got some puts and takes. We expect D2C to continue to grow nicely. We expect good momentum in female. We expect the impact of some of our distribution gains to wrap. On the other side, we're assuming a more moderate level of POS based on what we've seen more recently, and we expect inventory levels at retail to continue to be managed very tightly. But in terms of the 660, Matt, again, I mentioned a floor. You should think about it as a floor. I just reiterate, you know, the earnings power of this business post the divestiture of Lee is $7 plus. That's really what we see over the next 12 to 18 months.
Matthew Boss
Analyst, JPMorgan
Great, Keller. Best of luck.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Thanks, Matt. The next question comes from Adrian Yee with Barclays. Please proceed.
Angus Kelleher
Analyst, Barclays
Hi, this is Angus Kelleher on for Adrian Yee. Thanks for taking our question. So congrats on closing Lee. I think you mentioned to Ike You are spending a healthy portion of your capacity on Lee, and now it's all shifting to Wrangler. So my question is, what do you do with that extra capacity and then kind of a related follow-up? With POS expected to remain a bit pressured, what do you think gets Wrangler back to low single-digit plus, and what should we be watching to know it's working?
Scott Baxter
Chief Executive Officer and Chairman
So I would tell you that from a capacity standpoint, what you have now, and I can kind of break it down into the businesses a little bit. You know, when you're going through what we went through from the sales standpoint and also even more importantly, the lead up to the sale, you're you're. And I mentioned a little bit of this. You're thinking about things like our collaborations and our licensing agreements, and you're splitting the baby on both, right? So both brands are having to get equal opportunities with the great opportunities that are there with the brands from a collab standpoint and or licensing. Now we're going to be focused on one. Product team focused on one. Relationships with our wholesale customers focused solely on Wrangler. Before, when we went in, presented the line for the year, talked about planning for the year, it was all a split, 50-50. So now a complete focus there. That gives me an incredibly great deal of confidence. POS, from the standpoint of just growing, we need to be back in line. We're going to grow our inventories a little bit on the key styles to make sure that we're supporting the wholesale customer and also our direct consumer customer on a go-forward basis. And then we're doing other stuff that I'm really kind of excited about. We have some new distribution. Right now, we're rolling out pretty significantly with Lowe's in the workwear category. And I think Lowe's has done an amazing job relative to not being in that apparel business before and how they're merchandising and how they're learning. I'll tell you, they're learning very quickly on how to merchandise apparel in their stores. It's been very impressive. And then Target's doing really well. And we're getting back in this much stronger position with Target going forward. So as we look in the next year, I look at things like female and the opportunity there, the new distribution that I just mentioned. The heightened inventory that we're going to have on key and core styles going forward. And then all of that combined with the focus that we'll bring to the business going forward. And I think that's what really does it for me relative to how I think about the business and how we can just focus on the results of one business and one brand in the denim category relative to how we had to before.
Joe Alkire
President and Chief Financial Officer
And I just add some color, which I think will give you a better sense for the underlying strength of Wrangler. So on a year-to-date basis, the Western business is up high single digits. Our DTC business is up low double digits. Our female business has increased at a high team rate. We've seen really solid growth on the international side. So the drag has been the inventory reduction from our largest retail partners, which I mentioned in our prepared remarks, declined at a high single-digit rate, which has impacted our shipments in. POS has certainly moderated, but there's a lot of strength behind the Wrangler brand right now.
Scott Baxter
Chief Executive Officer and Chairman
And I'll tell you, I'll add one last thing. We haven't talked about it, but something, it isn't as big, but it's something that I think in my years of experience and watching how a brand really grows, and that is the D2C stores that we're going to be adding in 2027. We have one right now in Fort Worth, and it does exceptionally well. I think everybody here knows that Texas is an incredibly important market for the Wrangler brand. So in this coming year, we're going to be adding stores in Austin, Houston, El Paso, and several others in the state of Texas. So we're really going to own that state of Texas. It just helps us be able to launch new products, to bring females in, and to bring others into the brand in a really great setting that's 100% Wrangler-focused from a D2C standpoint in key, key Wrangler markets, big, key Wrangler markets. and I think it's really important for our brand and how we think about it going forward and we're really going to get after that in earnest for the first time because we've got some capacity in the organization to do that and we didn't have that before when we had the monobranded stores if you remember so the Lee and Wrangler stores that we had before in the outlet so now we're focused on that and I do think that's an unlock going forward and I think that when we as an organization look back years from now and think about some of the great breadcrumbs that we put out there as an organization we're going to go back to are key store strategy in key markets with that Wrangler brand, and I think we're going to feel really good about those decisions.
Angus Kelleher
Analyst, Barclays
That's really helpful. Thanks a bunch, and best of luck with holiday and ski season for Heli.
Scott Baxter
Chief Executive Officer and Chairman
Thank you. Appreciate that.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
The next question comes from Blake Anderson with Jeffreys LLC. Please proceed.
Brian
Analyst, Jefferies LLC
Hi, this is Brian on for Blake. Thanks for taking our question. Good to hear about the early snow out west. I'm just curious with Expectations for a warmer northern U.S. this winter and expected El Nino impacts. How much of Q4, Hallie, is already locked in through the order book, and how should we think about Hallie's durability with warmer weather than prior years, especially with the December quarter, a pretty good chunk of full-year revenue the last few years?
Joe Alkire
President and Chief Financial Officer
Thanks. I can take that. So about 80% of the sport business in the second half of the year is order book driven. So you can assume that that's locked in at this point. There's an at once component, which our at once business has been really strong. From a weather standpoint, I mean, look, we don't know, right? It's been, I think, a little bit better than what we expected thus far, but it's early and we've got two of our larger months ahead of us.
Scott Baxter
Chief Executive Officer and Chairman
And I wouldn't underestimate the amount of folks that ski out west versus the amount of folks that ski out east. When you have a good season on the west, it's a difference maker.
Brian
Analyst, Jefferies LLC
Got it. Thanks. And maybe if we could squeeze in one more. International D2C for Wrangler continues to be really strong. Just wondering if you could just unpack a little bit more in terms of what's been driving the strength there. How does the women's assortment look relative to the U.S. and maybe any more context in terms of how we should be thinking about that momentum rolling into Q4 next year? Thanks.
Joe Alkire
President and Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, I can start. So really two markets I would call out. Europe, the strength in Europe for Wrangler has been building for a number of quarters now. And we've started to focus more on Canada in particular, particularly on the digital side. We're seeing Really strong growth for that business right now.
Scott Baxter
Chief Executive Officer and Chairman
Yeah, I would ditto that. I think it's back to the focus again. And there is a real core group of consumers that have loved Wrangler for a long time. And I'll tell you the other thing that's been very helpful for us is there's a real Western component in Europe right now that's been happening. Lots of artists are touring throughout Europe right now, bringing a lot of excitement to the continent. And our product is really resonating. And if you follow the business, you know, the Wrangler business has been pretty strong in Europe over the last few years. And Joe's comment about Canada, I think, is really important because we're really doing well with our workwear business in Canada, too. And some of the product that we see that we've had, some of the product that we've kicked off, you know, for instance, we just kicked off Tough Light. And that's been very successful in Canada so far. And it's really nice to see. So that Canadian business is important to us. It's a smaller business that's getting bigger but growing quickly, so we're pleased with it. So again, I go back to new product introductions, focus on the business, and bringing in those new customers. And I think our international business can do really well with Wrangler.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
The next question comes from with BTIG. Please proceed.
Bob Drbul
Analyst, BTIG
Hi, this is Bob on for Bob. I guess if we could just sort of drill down a bit on Wrangler. In terms of what's happening with the market, with some of the more tempered expectations, you talked about Western still being high single. Any change in the Western trends that you see coming? And then just in terms of market share positioning, around, you know, the U.S. business. You know, is it competition that's slowing, you know, the performance? Is it just the consumer? Can you just expand a bit more on those pieces? Thanks.
Joe Alkire
President and Chief Financial Officer
Yes, sir. Bob, it's Joe. I can take that. So Wrangler Q3 Wrangler year-to-date up 3%. Within that, our denim and non-denim bottoms business, which is about You know, 80% of the business was up at a mid single digit rate. I talked about the growth that we saw across the different aspects of the business. Our outlook did not contemplate any changes to POS trends or inventory levels at retail. We've been positioning our outlook that way for probably two years now. And we saw POS run plus 3% in men's bottoms through July. So POS slowed to about 1%. in the business in September. It was about flat for Q3. And in addition to that, you know, more importantly, we saw inventory levels at retail come down in a high single digit rate. So that really impacted our shipments in beginning in the third quarter. For the fourth quarter, we've tempered our growth expectations for Wrangler and now expect 1% growth driven by expanded distribution and continued momentum in DTC Western and and female, but we've assumed no improvement in terms of POS or inventory levels at retail relative to what we saw in Q3 and into September. And our October results were in line with that outlook.
Bob Drbul
Analyst, BTIG
Great. And I'm just going to follow-up question. On stranded costs, can you just expand a bit more? I think the $15 million higher number I think it's 55 versus 40. Is that the right way to think about it?
Joe Alkire
President and Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, I can take that, Bob. So there's about $55 million of expenses previously allocated to Lee that have now been reclassified to continuing operations. This is a little higher than what we previously communicated based on final terms and transaction structure with ABG as the deal was closed, and we negotiated really the best transition support structure possible. for the business going forward. There's no impact to us economically as we received higher net proceeds as a result and we'll receive higher fees in terms of the support we're going to provide over the next 12 months or so. As we sit today, we will offset about 30 million of those costs alone from the TSA fees and we've got mitigating cost actions underway to fully offset the structural burden of these costs over the next 12 to 18 months. There's no change to our commitment to fully offsetting the stranded costs from the LEED transaction in fairly short order.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. At this time, I would like to turn the call back over to management for Mr. Scott Baxter for closing comments.
Scott Baxter
Chief Executive Officer and Chairman
Thank you very much. Well, folks, thank you for participating in the call. Really appreciate the interest in our company and all the great questions. Look forward to seeing you in February and sharing our business with you. and I wanted to wish everybody a happy holiday season. So thanks again for everything and we'll look forward to talking to you soon. Have a nice day, everybody.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation and have a wonderful day.