LGND Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated
$317.33
Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Q3 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript
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Operator
Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us and welcome to the Ligand Third Quarter Earnings Call. After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star one again. I will now hand the conference over to Melanie Herman, Head of Investor Relations. Melanie, please go ahead.
Melanie Herman
Head of Investor Relations
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Ligand's third quarter 2026 earnings call. With me on the call today are CEO Todd Davis, Chief Financial Officer Octavio Espinoza, Vice President of Portfolio Strategy and Investments Lauren Hay, and Paul Hadden, Senior Vice President of Investments and Business Development. During the call today, we will review the financial results released earlier today and provide commentary on our recent business development activity and partner portfolio, followed by a question and answer session. Before we get started, I would like to point out that we will be discussing non-GAAP results, which exclude certain items such as stock-based compensation, amortization of intangible assets, amortization or impairment of financial royalty assets, transaction costs, and gains or losses from derivative assets and marked market changes in investments, amongst others. I encourage you to review the reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures, which can be found in today's release available on our website. Thank you for joining us today. This call is being recorded and the audio portion will be archived in the investor section of our website. On today's call, we will make forward looking statements regarding our financial results and other matters related to the company's business. Please refer to this safe harbor statement related to these forward looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties. We remind you that actual events or results may differ materially from those projected or discussed and that all forward looking statements are based upon current available information. Ligand assumes no obligation to update these statements. To better understand the risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ, we refer you to the documents that Ligand files with the Securities and Exchange Commission or SEC that can be found on Ligand's website at ligand.com or on the SEC's website at sec.gov. And with that, I'd like to turn the call over to our CEO, Todd Davis.
Todd Davis
Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Melanie. And good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today. The third quarter was an important one for Ligand, with royalty revenue growing 51% year-over-year to approximately $70 million. Vilspari, O2 Ver, and the addition of the Zoma Commercial Assets Babaismo, Ojemda, and Maiplaifa led that growth, with the Filspare launch at FSGS being a primary growth driver as well. We are also raising our adjusted diluted EPS guidance to a range of $9.50 to $9.75 per share, up from our previously stated range of $9 to $9.50 per share. We have scaled our portfolio meaningfully over the past few months, closing the Zoma acquisition on July 14th, which added three key commercial assets and more than 100 pipeline programs. We also made two new investments this quarter, Avancel, an investment in a next-generation CAR-T platform technology, and Rijunia, a commercial royalty investment in Santan's pediatric myopia product. We have scaled our investment team, expanding our deal capacity while continuing to apply a disciplined approach to every investment. Our pipeline remains strong with more than 180 opportunities reviewed so far this year. We are entering an extremely catalyst-rich period at Ligand and anticipate up to seven pivotal readouts across the portfolio through 2027, five of which came from the Zoma acquisition. I'll use the next few slides to cover the team we've built, what we've accomplished over the past several years, and then Tavo will walk you through the financials. Lauren will provide an update on our portfolio, and Paul will provide you an update on new investments and the origination pipeline. Over the past few years, we have built an investment team with deep relationships across the biopharmaceutical industry and extensive investment experience in the space. Those relationships are a meaningful part of how we source opportunities, and the team's technical, clinical, and legal depth is what supports the rigorous diligence we apply to every investment. The team was expanded this year to add two new deal leads, Dr. Pete Renahan and Lee Brown. We also built out a systematic portfolio management system led by Lauren Hay to drive value into our development stage partnerships. and doing what we do best, identifying new opportunities within the portfolio, which may offer attractive investment opportunities as well as increasing portfolio yield and the probability of success on existing portfolio assets. Over the past three years, Ligand has committed more than $1 billion across more than 20 investments using three distinct approaches. Royalty Monetization, Project Finance, and Special Situations. The third quarter built on that momentum with the $730 million ZOMA deal, which is the largest transaction in our history, as well as the Rejunia and Avancel investments. This slide shows the results and growth that our strategy has delivered. In 2022, we began shifting to a pure royalty aggregation model by spinning out the OmniApp platform and then Phenix, a recombinant protein expression platform now referred to as Primrose Bio, which we spun out in 2023. This pivot transformed us into a capital light business model with an efficient cost structure built around a seasoned deal From 2022 to the midpoint of our 2026 guidance range, we anticipate royalty revenue would grow at a compound annual growth rate of 34%. Over the same period, adjusted EPS would grow at a compound annual growth rate of 41%. This growth was achieved while simultaneously cutting our core OPEX from $92 million in 2022 to an expected $50 million in 2026. With that, I'll turn the call over to Tavo for the financial update.
Octavio Espinoza
Chief Financial Officer
Tavo? Thank you, Todd, and good morning, everyone. Before I get into the numbers, there is one change I want to share with you. Starting this quarter, we're reporting earlier than we have in the past, and we plan to keep that schedule through 2027. The reason is that many of our royalty interests are accounted for as financial royalty assets. In fact, after the Zoma acquisition, our financial royalty asset balance has increased from approximately $200 million as of last quarter to $800 million this quarter. For those assets, the income we recognize each period is driven by our long-term forecast of the royalty cash flows over the life of each asset, rather than by a single quarter of partner reported sales. So waiting for every partner to report adds little information. There's more detail on that accounting in our Form 10-K. For partners that had not yet reported product sales when we closed the quarter, our royalty revenue and income for partners is based on our estimates. which are informed by sell side consensus and may differ from actual results. If results differ, they will be adjusted in the following quarter. I'll begin with our third quarter results and the drivers behind the year over year changes, and then turn to our balance sheet, including our convertible notes and our guidance. Royalty revenue was $70.3 million in the quarter, An increase of 51% over the prior year, reflecting the contribution from Zoma and continued momentum across our legacy portfolio. Adjusted diluted earnings per share was $2.67, compared with $3.09 in the prior year quarter, which included $24.5 million of one-time SELZUVME Outlicense income, On a GAAP basis, we reported a net loss of $1.43 per share, which I'll walk through shortly. We ended the quarter with approximately $450 million in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments, compared with approximately $734 million at December 31, 2025. Thank you for watching. Looking at royalty revenue, legacy royalties grew 25% to $58.1 million, and the Zoma acquired assets added $12.3 million in the roughly 11 weeks since the July 14th close. Filspare is now our largest royalty asset at $16.8 million, estimated for the quarter, up 85% a year ago and overtaking Kypralis at $10.5 million. The Fosfari estimate is based on sell-side consensus. Travere has not provided us with a royalty amount or Q3 revenue yet, as they report Monday, November 2nd, after market close. Any difference from our estimate will be trued up in the fourth quarter. We expect growth to continue across IGIN and FSGS, which was approved in April. Ojemda and Otuver followed at $7 million each. Turning to our detailed financial results, Total core revenue was $78.7 million, down 9% from $86.9 million last year, which included $24.5 million of sales of me outlicensed income recorded on the sale of the Pelphos business. Excluding that, core revenue grew 26%. Research and development expense was $2.8 million compared with $21 million in the prior year, which included a $17.8 million charge related to the R&D funding arrangement for the AVIM therapy royalty rights we acquired from Orchestra Biomed. G&A expense was $72.6 million compared with $28.4 million Of that increase, $35 million related to one-time ZOMA transaction and integration costs, with the remainder reflecting our expanded business development and investment team. Non-operating expense was $28.3 million, primarily non-cash, mark-to-market adjustments on our equity investments, which are excluded from adjusted net income. As a result, gap net loss was $28.5 million, or $1.43 per share, compare with net income of $117.3 million, or $5.68 per share last year, which included $53.1 million of Pelto's divestiture-related income. Adjusted net income was $57.5 million, or $2.67 per diluted share, compared with $63.8 million, or $3.09 in the prior year. The decline reflects the absence of last year's $24.5 million sell-zoom-me-out license income. I'd like to highlight that while GAAP GNA rose this quarter on ZOMA transaction costs, our core cash operating expenses for 2026 remain on track at approximately $50 million, including ZOMA. On our convertible notes, we have $460 million of 75 basis point notes due 2030 and $700 million of 0% notes due 2031. Both were paired with call spreads and our net share settled. So principal is repaid in cash and dilution comes only from the warrants and only above their strike prices of roughly $294 for the 2030 notes and $524 for the 2031 notes. at a $400 share price, for example, the warrants would add about 600,000 shares or approximately 3% of shares outstanding. Turning to guidance. We are reaffirming our full year 2026 revenue guidance. Royalty revenue of $225 to $250 million, total revenue of $270 to $310 million, cap to sell revenue of $35 to $40 million, and contract revenue of $10 to $20 million. We are also raising our adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance to $9.50 to $9.75 per share, up from $9 to $9.50 per share. I want to point out that we expect our 2026 revenue to be weighted more heavily towards the fourth quarter. There are two reasons. First, Q4 will include a full quarter of royalties from ZOMA, whereas Q3 included only a pro rata portion following the July 14th close. Second, many of our royalty arrangements include tiered rates that step up as sales grow, and the higher tiers are typically not reached until later in the year. I would also note that timing remains the most challenging variable in providing guidance. The timing of customer orders affects capital material sales, and the timing of milestones across our growing portfolio can shift revenue between quarters. Our updated EPS range reflects our strong results through the first nine months while keeping appropriate room for that timing. With our expanded portfolio following the Zoma acquisition, there are also a growing number of clinical and regulatory events whose outcomes and timing are inherently uncertain. and which we do not rely on in setting guidance because many of these events carry milestone payments. Positive outcomes would represent potential upside to our guidance and we look forward to updating you as they occur. Finally, as we noted last quarter, the business today is materially different from the one we reflected in the five-year framework we introduced at our 2025 Investor Day, which targeted a 23% royalty receipt category. We are not updating that outlook today. We'll do so at our investor day on December 8th. Three major developments will factor into that update. First, the ZOMA acquisition, which will shift a larger amount of future expected royalties from the future investment section of the chart to the commercial and farm team sections of the chart. Second, the approval of Filspari in April as the first FDA-approved treatment for FSGS, which expands its opportunity beyond IGN and is already contributing to Filspari royalties. And third, Palvelas NDA Acceptance and Priority Review of Cuturian Repamycin and Microcystic Lymphatic Malformations. The FDA has assigned it PDUPA target date of February 28, 2027. Ligan will earn a tiered 8% to 9.8% royalty if approved. With that, I'll turn the call over to Lauren for an update on the royalty portfolio and pipeline.
Lauren Hay
Vice President of Portfolio Strategy and Investments
Thank you, Tavo, and good morning, everyone. Following the acquisition of Zoma Royalty and our September investments in Raijunia and Avancel, our portfolio now includes more than 200 commercial, clinical, and preclinical royalty assets. I'll start with our commercial programs, then turn to the pipeline and the catalysts ahead. The Raijunia acquisition adds our 16th key program to the commercial portfolio. Of these 16 programs, 10 stem from royalties tied to new approvals or investments made since 2022 when we pivoted to a lean royalty aggregation model. Together, they span a wide range of therapeutic areas and partners, reflecting a diversified, durable, and growing royalty revenue stream. There were several updates from our commercial partners in the quarter. Ojemda was approved in Japan in September, as announced by Ipsen. We expect Filspare to continue its strong launch in FSGS and show sustained IGAN growth, and Otuver and Zilsuvime continue to show significant growth in product sales as well. Pelphos reported that more than 25,000 patients have been prescribed Zilsuvime since its launch in July 2025. Turning to a snapshot of our key partnered pipeline programs, this slide highlights what we believe are the most significant late-stage opportunities, though it's just a subset of our broader development stage portfolio. As these assets advance through clinical development toward approval, they will further contribute to our growth and portfolio diversification. Importantly, every program on this slide represents a new or follow-on investment we have made since 2022. We often get asked which assets are the most exciting in the ZOMA development stage pipeline, so I'd like to touch on a few of those here. Starting with the Takeda programs, mozogetamab is being developed in both ITP and IG nephropathy with phase three results expected between late 2027 and early 2028. Peak sales are estimated at more than $1.5 billion, which would represent a royalty of more than 30 million to ligand. Osovampitor, which is being developed by Neurocrin under license from Takeda, is in phase three in major depressive disorder, with results expected in the second half of 2027. Based on limited available analyst estimates, peak sales are estimated to be between 500 million and 1.8 billion, representing a royalty of up to $80 million to Ligand. The Lixabet, which Mirim is developing under license from Takeda, was granted breakthrough therapy designation for primary sclerosing cholangitis in August. A pre-NDA meeting has been held and additional discussions are planned before a potential NDA submission in the first half of 2027. In primary biliary cholangitis, enrollment is complete in the pivotal Phase IIb Vantage study, with top-line results expected in the first quarter of 2027. Peak sales are estimated above $1 billion, representing a peak royalty of more than $45 million to Ligand. and finally Ojemda which is marketed by Servier and Ipsen has a phase three trial in frontline pediatric low-grade glioma with results expected in 2027. That indication is estimated to represent peak sales of approximately $500 million or a peak royalty of approximately $25 million on top of the royalty we already earn on the marketed indication. Next, I'd like to discuss some of the positive developments we have seen in 2026 across our portfolio. First, PhilSparry's FDA approval and commercial launch in FSGS has been one of the largest growth drivers in the second and third quarters of this year, and we expect that momentum to continue. Additionally, PhilSparry's marketing partner, Chugai, announced regulatory submission in Japan. Second, yesterday, Calvella announced NDA acceptance and priority review for cuturin rapamycin in microcystic lymphatic malformations. The FDA assigned a PDUFA target action date of February 28th, 2027. If approved, Palvella is expecting a U.S. commercial launch in the first half of 2027. We congratulate our partner, Palvella, on this important milestone, which brings this potential new treatment one step closer to patients who currently have no FDA approved therapies. Additionally, in May, Palvella announced initiation of its Phase 2 trial of cuturin rapamycin in clinically significant angiokeratomas and also plans to begin a Phase 3 trial in cutaneous venous malformations in the fourth quarter of this year. With our tiered royalty of up to 9.8% on all cuturin rapamycin indications, we expect this pipeline and a product to be a sizable near-term growth driver. Third, at Orchestra Biomed, the FDA granted Avim therapy a second breakthrough device designation in patients with uncontrolled hypertension despite antihypertensive medication who are indicated for a pacemaker. And on October 1st, Orchestra announced that the BackBeat Global Pivotal Trial surpassed its full enrollment target of 316 randomized patients. We look forward to top line results from ORCHESTRA in the second quarter of 2027. I'd also like to highlight new additions to the portfolio this quarter. The acquisition of ZOMA, including three commercial assets, Ojemda, Vapizmo, and Maiplefa, and two new royalty investments, Avancel and Santens Reginia. Our interest in Sotiklistat was also revitalized in August. Ovid announced that Mistral Bio, a newly formed portfolio company backed by Perceptive Advisors, acquired global rights to the asset from Takeda. Sotiklistat narrowly missed its primary endpoint in the Phase III Dravet Syndrome trial. Ligand is entitled to a share of royalties and milestones received by Ovid. We are excited to see this new investment in this asset by Perceptive and are reminded that one of the benefits of royalty investing is that our interest stays with the asset, even as it moves from one clinical development partner to another. We are also pleased that our partner, Emetica, announced that they will advance the development of IV Ganoxalone for the treatment of refractory status epilepticus and plans to initiate a new phase three study in 2027. RSE is a life-threatening neurological emergency in which ongoing seizure activity does not respond to at least two different anti-seizure medications. There is a significant need for therapies that could rapidly control seizures and reduce the need for escalation to IV anesthesia. Amedica acquired the global rights to Canoxalone through its acquisition of Marinus Pharmaceuticals in 2025. The decision follows an extensive review of the available clinical data and productive interactions with the FDA, which have provided a clear regulatory path forward for the program. and Medica is now progressing the activities required to prepare and operationalize the new study, including finalization of the study design, manufacturing of clinical trial material and clinical site planning. Looking forward to the remainder of the year and into 2027, we believe we are in the most catalyst rich period in our company's nearly 40 year history. Through 2027, we anticipate up to seven pivotal trial readouts, including important assets from the legacy ligand portfolio, as well as programs more recently added through the ZOMA acquisition. We also have the potential FDA approval of Keturin Rapamycin and MLM, which if approved, would be a major growth driver, as well as potential geographic expansion for commercial stage products already generating royalties today, including Filspari and Otuvera. Of course, biopharmaceutical development carries inherent binary risk, and we do not expect every one of these studies to be positive. The strength of Ligand's model is that we have intentionally built a diversified portfolio that is resilient to that risk so that no single readout or approval determines the outcome for our shareholders. With that, I'll now turn the call back over to Paul for an investment update.
Paul Hadden
Senior Vice President of Investments and Business Development
Thank you, Lauren. Turning to our investment activity for the year, our pipeline of investment opportunities remains robust. We have reviewed more than 180 investments so far in 2026, which puts us on track to exceed prior years. Of those, 115 moved to sign a confidentiality agreement, a 60% conversion rate, and the highest number of CDAs signed in the past four years. What matters just as much is our discipline on the other end of the funnel. We closed six investments, or roughly 5% of the CDAs we signed. That selectivity is deliberate. We look at a very wide set of opportunities precisely so that we can be selective about where we commit capital. The six we closed this year are Zoma, Zerion, H&S Primrose, Avancel, and Sidenexus. Some were large in size, while others were smaller follow-on or platform investments. but each fits the profile we've described before. Differentiated assets, experienced management teams and structures that give us attractive economics. We expect our review activity to continue at this pace through the fourth quarter and remain confident in our ability to deploy capital at the same standard. In September, we acquired a royalty and milestone interest in Santens Raijunia from SideNexus for 23 million upfront. Ryjunia is a once nightly low dose atropine eye drop and is the first and only approved pharmacologic treatment to slow pediatric myopia progression in the European Union and the United Kingdom approved by the European Commission and the UK MHRA. Under the agreement, we acquired 100% interest in SideNexus' payment rights under its San10 license, which includes a tiered low double digit to high teens royalty on net sales in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, plus certain milestones. SideNexus retains the U.S. and all other non-San10 territories. Myopia is a large and growing condition. Santan estimates that 14 million patients in Europe were affected in 2025, and Santan has identified myopia as a key strategic growth area with a strong ophthalmology presence across Europe. That gives us confidence in the long-term commercial potential of Reginia, and it becomes the 16th key program in our commercial portfolio. Also in September, we entered into a financing agreement with Evans Health Therapeutics for up to $47 million, which includes up to $41 million of royalty financing and up to $6 million in a concurrent Series C investment. The first tranche includes both royalty and equity for an initial investment of $9 million. What makes this transaction distinctive is that it is a platform royalty. In exchange for our commitment, we receive a mid-single-digit to low-double-digit royalty on worldwide net sales of all current and future Evansdale Pipeline assets with the applicable rate determined by the total amount ultimately funded. The capital is deployed in four tranches, the first to closing and the remaining three tranches tied to clinical milestones and other conditions which aligns our capital with the progress of the programs. The lead asset, AVC201, is an anti-CD123 CAR-T in a Phase 1B expansion study in relapsed refractory AML, one of the most acute and fatal cancers, and one for which there are no approved cell therapies. Avancel is also advancing AVC203, a Phase 1A program in B-cell malignancies. The platform combines CRISPR-engineered allogeneic CAR-T cells with a switchable feature that enables the therapy to be turned off, providing greater control over CAR-T activity. It is an off-the-shelf approach with potential across hematologic malignancies and other diseases. We were encouraged by the data generated to date with ABC201 and look forward to working with the Avancel team as they advance the pipeline. For both of these profiled investments, our team had longstanding pre-existing relationships. And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Todd for closing remarks.
Todd Davis
Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Paul. Stepping back, this quarter marks an important moment for Ligand. Our results demonstrate the strength of our business, now including the Zoma portfolio. We have achieved a 51% year-over-year growth in royalty revenue, constructed a diversified portfolio of more than 200 assets, and have $750 million of deployable capital to continue building our portfolio. Put simply, we have the capital, the people, the process, all focused on a very robust market opportunity. We believe that positions like Yan to drive growth well into the next and our partners whose progress in developing treatments for patients is what ultimately drives our success and results. Thank you for joining us today. I will now turn the call back over to the operator for questions.
Conference Operator
Operator
We will now begin the question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star one again. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow up. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Matt Hewitt with Craig Hallam Capital Group. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Matt Hewitt
Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital Group
Good morning and congratulations on the strong quarter. Maybe first up, now that you've kind of had some time to dig through the Zoma portfolio a little bit deeper, I'm just curious if there's incremental assets. I think initially when you valued the transaction, it was just on a handful. Obviously, it's a much larger portfolio than that. So as you've dug in deeper, are you finding maybe some hidden gems, and how does that transaction feel today?
Todd Davis
Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Matt. That's a great question. There is. I mean, when you are valuing a portfolio the size that Zoma had created, you really use a triage approach to valuation around those assets that you have the most information on that carry value. So that was really a small subset of their total asset base. And as we have begun to dig through that over time, Of course, there's a number of news flow on things that we had underwritten, frankly, to zero that are developing quite nicely and have positive information. We believe that it has come out. There are real shots on goal. And other portfolio assets that Zoma had, that we have the follow-on capital capability to support those companies which improves their probability of success as well as represent very good investment opportunities for us. So we are farming through that portfolio carefully with Lauren in the lead there and assessing each asset and we are uncovering a lot of I would say option value on things like the Resolute Assets, Biloxibat, etc.
Matt Hewitt
Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital Group
That's super helpful. And then maybe just kind of sticking with the ZOMA, I think initially your guidance contributed 50 cents to ZOMA to earnings this year, $1.50 to next year. As you've gotten a little bit more comfortable with the portfolio, do you still see that as being the contribution or Has there been any changes to that initial thought? Thanks.
Todd Davis
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, no changes to that. I'll let Tavo follow up here. But significant changes in our views on the viability of very promising assets within the portfolio.
Octavio Espinoza
Chief Financial Officer
Tavo? Yeah, that's right, Todd. No changes to what we've said in terms of Thank you for joining us. are updates to the contribution next year when we meet at Investor Day. We'll talk about it more specifically at that point.
Matt Hewitt
Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital Group
Great. Thank you.
Octavio Espinoza
Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Matt.
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Dave Reisinger with Lerink Partners. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Dave Reisinger
Analyst, Leerink Partners
Yes, thanks very much. Just wanted to add my congrats on the quarterly results. So my question relates to the news flow ahead. So specifically, can you talk about the Q-Torin, Rapamycin, Padufa, and the prospects for the sales for that drug over the long term and remind us about the royalty opportunity for Ligan, please? Thanks very much.
Todd Davis
Chief Executive Officer
Sure. As everybody may have seen, they yesterday got very good news at Palvella and are expecting a PDUFA date in February. That's very big news for us. The sales potential here is, you know, high several hundred millions to a billion dollars in kind of when you take all territories into consideration in our royalty rate. on this scales pretty quickly at lower levels of sales up to just under 10% at 9.8.
Dave Reisinger
Analyst, Leerink Partners
Great. Thank you very much.
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Jason Zemenski with Bank of America. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Jackie
Analyst, Bank of America (on behalf of Jason Zemansky)
Hi, this is Jackie on for Jason. Congrats on the quarter and thank you so much for taking your call. So as you look towards 2027, how are you thinking about the pace of capital deployment? And given the growth of the existing portfolio, how much do you need to deploy annually to sustain it? Thank you.
Todd Davis
Chief Executive Officer
Yes, thank you, Jackie. Thank you for joining us. Thank you for joining us. They've come on board very rapidly, are highly productive along with the other three folks that are leading deals. And so the pace probably does increase and that will increase our option value. The pace could go up or the selectivity could go up. But either way, I think that works very well for us.
Jackie
Analyst, Bank of America (on behalf of Jason Zemansky)
Great. Thank you so much.
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Glenn Santangelo with Barclays. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Glenn Santangelo
Analyst, Barclays
Good morning and thanks for taking my question. Just two quick ones for me. I just want to focus on the royalty revenue guidance. I mean, you basically just maintain that guidance on what was a pretty strong quarter here. And if I look at the implied sort of royalty revenues in the fourth quarter, I think it's 64 to sort of 89 million. And given the things, Tava, that you sort of talked about, Thank you for joining us. And then secondly, you know, as we look to the Analyst Day coming in December, I'm just kind of curious, you know, how you think about this, this PDUFA now in QTOR and, you know, all the data readouts that we're expecting in 2027 and how that shapes your thinking in providing that updated five-year guidance at Analyst Day. Thanks so much.
Octavio Espinoza
Chief Financial Officer
Go ahead, Bill. Thanks for the question. You do raise a good point, in particular the lower end of the implied royalty for Q4. I agree, it does imply a measured approach. We definitely have a certain amount of confidence, a high level of confidence that we'll you know, approach the mid to higher end, if not even exceeded. We are being a little cautious in part as I announced in my prepared remarks. We are still waiting for many of our partners to report. And, you know, we feel good about the range, in particular the upper side of the range. So we'll leave it at that.
Glenn Santangelo
Analyst, Barclays
Any thoughts on the analyst day and how you formulate that five-year plan given all the data that we're expecting?
Octavio Espinoza
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, so we'll update our long-term outlook. Like I mentioned in also my prepared remarks, there's a number of number of positive events, news flow, and catalysts that have happened throughout the year, and in particular, the Palvela news, the Zoma acquisition obviously will inform that. But yeah, we're very much looking forward to updating that long-term outlook when we present that on Investor Day on December 8th.
Glenn Santangelo
Analyst, Barclays
Okay, thank you.
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Annabel Samimi with Stifel. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Annabel Samimi
Analyst, Stifel
Hi, all. Thanks for taking my question and congratulations on the progress. Had a couple here. So thinking about Zoma and some of the capabilities that they brought, I'm curious if this changes The technological complexity level of innovation or clinical risk that you're going to take in some of the deals that you're pursuing right now. And I guess the second question goes to the deal flow. You signed 115 CDAs, six investments were closed. So I'm curious to know what results in those other deals not closing. And if there's any level of competition that you're seeing, that could be a reason for that. Thanks.
Todd Davis
Chief Executive Officer
I think that in terms of our investment strategy and the addition of Zoma, the strategy has not really changed at all. We're focused on positioning our capital in late stage clinical development, sub $100 million deal sizes, where we're going after very high end clinical need. We're therapeutically and scientifically agnostic on the approach and focused really on the risk Thank you for joining us. Your capabilities on the inside when you're assessing opportunities and calling through your pipeline. But we always go outside of ligand in our confirmatory diligence stage to some of the deepest expertise in the world around a given therapeutic area, around a given scientific base, etc. So that's best practices. And the acquisition of Zoma hasn't really changed that. And in fact, you know, there's They did a great job kind of building the company, but this is just such a highly synergistic business with us that we really brought over two employees, one full-time and one in a consulting arrangement. So the synergies around that acquisition are very high, and our capabilities are quite broad. And on the deal flow front, Paul, if you're... On the mic, I'll let you take that one.
Paul Hadden
Senior Vice President of Investments and Business Development
Yeah, thanks, Todd and Annabelle. Yeah, I think the deal flow is definitely upticking. I think you can see from the CDA sign, I think we signed about 69 last year, so it's quite up quite considerably, and I think that's reflective of the additional deal leads we've brought on. So we're quite comfortable with the activity level and also just the pace of deployment and We're anticipating having a very good year next year, so we're excited for what's to come.
Annabel Samimi
Analyst, Stifel
Okay, thank you.
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Yigal Notomovitz with Citi. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Yigal Nochomovitz
Analyst, Citi
Hi, thank you very much for taking the questions. Just a question on the risk model. and how you think about probability weighting success. Obviously with the Palvella Priority Review and the PDUFA, you've passed a certain mark in terms of risk reduction. So do you embed that in your forecast now in terms of probabilities? And then how do you think about the option to acquire royalty in a different topical candidate? Now that you've got a little bit more confidence with respect to Palvela's path to approval. Thank you.
Todd Davis
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I think that the original Palvela investment was done relatively early stage for us. but there was significant third party evidence and evidence of potential safety and efficacy on that particular drug. What we really invested in there originally was the formulation risk and the team, which is outstanding. So that's kind of how we looked at that, the risk originally. It was earlier, but de-risked in many ways and typically, you know, earlier stage compounds or not. But we're constantly assessing both the probability of success, which we defined as an approval and launch, and then obviously discounting the commercial risk over a significant period of time. And in general, that's how we approach that. And what was the second part of your question you called?
Yigal Nochomovitz
Analyst, Citi
I was just curious about, you know, how you think about options, acquiring additional options on some of the other topical candidates, given the royalty you have there.
Todd Davis
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, there's no tangible discussions ongoing right now. And Pavel has very strong, significant access to capital. But of course, we're always engaged with our partners. You know, we work hard on the origination effort with the deal teams to meet new management teams, assess the assets and the team's ability to execute. And of course, we're doing that within our own portfolio as well. And the Palvella team is outstanding. So of course, we're always willing to engage with partners like Palvella and put follow on capital. In fact, Since the original investment, which don't quote me on this, I could be wrong, I think it was 2019 that when Ligand came into the deal, we have followed on in every single round of investment, including the equity rounds. So we're using, we're not really an equity finance strategy. Got it. Thank you.
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Leland Gershel with Oppenheimer. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Leland Gershell
Analyst, Oppenheimer
Terrific. Good morning. Thank you for taking our questions. Just wondering, in terms of the cost synergies, Post, Zoma. Just wondering, I think maybe it was on your last earnings call you had mentioned that those may be even better than you had originally expected. So just curious, you know, if you could give us a sense of what you see to be kind of the quarterly ongoing run rate for G&A, you know, as you remove, you know, 1x costs and transaction integration costs and so forth. You know, where do you stand on on the Zoma Plus energies. Thank you.
Octavio Espinoza
Chief Financial Officer
Go ahead, Tavo. Thanks, Elon, for the question. So we acquired a business that had a cash operating expense run rate above $25 million. When we announced the acquisition and then reaffirmed when we closed the deal that we would bring that down to approximately a $5 million run rate post acquisition. What we're seeing today is that that's gonna perhaps be a tad better than that. So modeling out the future, I'd keep it to just under $5 million per year in additional incremental cost as a result of the acquisition. So it's been very nice outcome in that regard.
Leland Gershell
Analyst, Oppenheimer
Okay, great. And then just want to ask another question with respect to Q4. Does CME are being conservative here on the top line? Just wondering if there's any particular driver for that conservatism. Is it just estimates from the sales side that may change with the true up? Just wondering what's driving your conservatism in Q4? Thanks.
Octavio Espinoza
Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, you know, we have line of sight on a lot of the below the line items, operating expenses, share count, tax rates, and things that we have more direct control in. And that's what inspired the move in the earnings per share guide. On the top line, like I mentioned in my prepared remarks, the order flow from Capasol customers, the regulatory clinical milestones, there's some uncertainty there. And so, again, just taking a bit of a measured approach there and also seeing what we learn from our partners here over the next year. That's the primary driver behind our measured approach on the top line.
Leland Gershell
Analyst, Oppenheimer
Great. That's very helpful. Thank you.
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Sahil Dhingra with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Sahil Dhingra
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets
Hi, good morning. This is Sahil for . Thank you so much for taking our questions. My questions are related to your two recent acquisitions. So first on BrightJunior, so we are aware there is an adcom for the drug in the U.S. despite the clinical trial meeting both endpoints. So my question there is, does the U.S. regulatory skepticism pose any read-across risk to European prescriber confidence or any reimbursement negotiations for the drug? Or do you view that EU and EUK approval are sufficiently independent? And also, is there any risk of unregulated compounded atropine the Regents granted as approved. Go ahead, Paul.
Paul Hadden
Senior Vice President of Investments and Business Development
Yeah, so Sahil, thank you for the question. To answer the first part first, no, we don't view any read-across as a risk. The product has been approved in Europe for a few quarters now, independent of what's been happening in the U.S. Obviously, the outcome will be on Friday, but we feel comfortable and have conviction that Santin will continue to roll out the product. And with respect to your second part of the question, There are compounding pharmacies that have been distributing atropine, but that dynamic is moot now that they have an approved product that's regulated and obviously being distributed by a very formidable ophthalmology company in Santan, so we feel comfortable there.
Sahil Dhingra
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets
Okay, thank you. That's helpful. And then my second question, It's related to the IRR and risk profile. So could you speak to the targeted IRR on the two acquisitions and how does the risk return compare to a preclinical stage asset and the commercial product for Bidra Jr.? And I'll leave it there. Thank you.
Todd Davis
Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. Yeah. So on every deal, we basically are... Thank you.