MUR Murphy Oil Corporation
$35.94
Murphy Oil Corporation Q3 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript
AI Conference Call Analysis
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Conference Operator
Good morning. My name is Erica and I will be your conference operator today. Welcome to Murphy Oil Corporation third quarter 2026 earnings call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the presentation, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star 1 followed on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press star 1 again. Thank you. I will now turn the call over to Atif Riaz, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer.
Atif Riaz
Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer
Thank you, Erica. Good morning and welcome to our third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Joining me today are Eric Hambly, President and CEO, Tom Mireles, Executive Vice President and CFO, and Chris Laurino, Senior Vice President of Operations. Yesterday, after market closed, we issued our third quarter earnings release, a slide presentation, and a stockholder update. These documents can be found on Murphy's website, and we will reference them today throughout our call. As a reminder, Today's call contains forward-looking statements as defined under US securities laws. No assurances can be given that these events will occur or that the projections will be attained. A variety of factors exist that may cause actual results to differ. For further discussion of risk factors, please refer to our most recent annual report filed with the SEC. Murphy takes no duty to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements except as required by law. Throughout today's call, Production numbers, reserves, and financial amounts are adjusted to exclude non-controlling interest in the Gulf of America. I will now turn the call over to Eric for opening remarks.
Eric Hambly
President and CEO
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. When we spoke in August, I mentioned that years of technical work were starting to translate into multiple pathways for growth. This quarter, several of those opportunities materialized across our portfolio. Over the past three months, we advanced the appraisal program at Bubal, made a new discovery in Vietnam, delivered first oil at Lac de Vang, brought Chinook 8 online, and beat the top end of our production guidance. Our letter and earnings release cover these results in detail. What I want to focus on this morning is how these results and the strategy behind them are creating lasting value for our shareholders. Starting in the Gulf of America, We acquired the Pioneer FPSO in 2025 with opportunities like Chinook 8 in mind. On September 22nd, Chinook 8 came online through the Pioneer facility, adding oil-weighted production without the cost or lead time of new infrastructure. Because we own the FPSO, those incremental barrels now benefit from stronger economics and higher returns. Five days after bringing Chinook 8 online in the Gulf, we achieved first oil at Lac de Vang in Vietnam. This was our first operating development in the country, and not that I was counting, we brought it online in two years, 11 months, and 23 days from project sanction. Safely, on time, and on budget. Beyond that strong project execution and initial startup, Lac de Vang creates value for Murphy in multiple ways. It gives us local operating and development experience that we can build on as we grow our business in Vietnam. Second, it adds attractive oil barrels with some recent cargoes selling at a premium of more than $10 per barrel to dated Brent. As production ramps up, Lac de Vente's cash flow contribution becomes material. And third, Lac de Vente establishes the infrastructure to support our broader hub and spoke strategy in the country. With a hub now in place, our Lac du Tronc North, White Camel North discovery and other nearby opportunities can benefit from a lower economic threshold and a more capital efficient path to production. Turning to Cote d'Ivoire, the Buval West 1X well confirmed oil in the Turonian Reservoir down dip from the original discovery and also encountered hydrocarbons in the deeper Albion Reservoir. We were encouraged by the Buval exploration, appraisal, and analysis work completed so far. The information from the Bubal West 1X well give us even more confidence that the likely range of resources in the Turonian Reservoir supports an economic development of the Turonian and help narrow the range of uncertainty in the recoverable resources. I think it will help investors if I characterize the Turonian Reservoir at a high level based on the data we have from the two Bubal wells and our seismic data set. The Turonian Reservoir is a generally east to west trending deepwater channel system. which is narrower at the discovery location and widens to the west and down dip toward the West 1X location. Pressure data from the wells indicate likely reservoir continuity between the two wells. Recall that the two wells are about eight miles apart and the West 1X well is about 1,100 feet structurally down dip from the discovery well. The Tironium appears to be a high quality reservoir that contains high quality oil. The Turonian oil is 37 degrees API and the gas bill ratio is around 1,500 to 2,000 cubic feet per barrel. We collected a whole core at the discovery location and are analyzing the core now. The preliminary work indicates that the average reservoir permeability is in the 100 to 100s of millidarcy range with some reservoir over a darcy. More work is necessary to determine the variability of reservoir quality throughout the field. The West 1X well encountered oil-bearing and water-bearing Turonian reservoir sands. The water encountered in the West 1X well may represent a definitive Turonian-wide oil-water contact, but we need to do more work to confirm that. The fluid PVT properties suggest that the reservoir does not have a gas cap. In addition, as we previously disclosed, we encountered high-quality oil in the deeper Cenomanian and Albion reservoirs, which will need to be appraised. We clearly know much less about the Sennemanian and Albion reservoirs at this point, but here's how we're thinking of them. The Sennemanian is the same type of channel system as the Toronian, and it widens up-dip to the north and is narrower at the discovery location and down-dip to the south. The Albion extends up-dip to the northeast and down-dip to the southwest from the West 1X location. We believe the West 1X well encountered an oil-filled sand at the edge of the Albion channel system. We're currently working to incorporate all the Santa Mania and Albion well and seismic data to improve our understanding of the reservoir and help determine the optimal locations for future appraisal wells. I recognize that's a fair amount of technical detail, but many of you have asked for greater visibility into what we're seeing at Buval. We want to be transparent about what we know today and what we're still working through. There is more work ahead, but each appraisal well gives us a clearer picture of what we have and helps guide where we go next. Our key achievements this quarter are not isolated events, and I'm proud of what our teams delivered. We were simultaneously bringing offshore projects online on opposite sides of the world, exploring and appraising in shallow and deep water across multiple basins and operating our producing assets above expectations. This breadth of execution reflects capabilities built over decades, and those capabilities are creating significant value. At $80 Brent, Locke DeVong and Chinook are expected to generate approximately $1 billion of combined free cashflow over the next five years. While the exploration and appraisal opportunities we advanced this quarter represent resource potential roughly twice the size of our current offshore reserves. The base business also continues to deliver with Eagleford, Gulf of America and Tupper Money all contributing to production above the high end of guidance and $515 million of operating cashflow in the quarter. Our results this quarter add both cash flow today and a broader set of investment choices for the future. As those opportunities mature, we will remain selective, prioritize the investments with the most compelling returns, sequence capital with discipline, and maintain an uncompromising commitment to financial strength. With that, we're ready to take your questions.
Erica
Conference Operator
We will now begin the question and answer session. At this time, I would like to remind everyone in order to ask a question, press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, press star one again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Arun Jayaram with JP Morgan. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Arun Jayaram
Analyst, JPMorgan
Eric and team, good morning. Appreciate some of the key technical details around Bubali. I was wondering if you could maybe think about the bigger picture here. You mentioned that you believe that you've already reached a minimum threshold for development. I was wondering if you could maybe help us think about your big aerial extent about the size of the recoverable resource range and a little bit more on the next steps in the appraisal program.
Eric Hambly
President and CEO
Arun, thanks for that. I know everyone is anxious for us to give a new resource range for Bubal. What I'll tell you is from where I'm sitting, we have two wells in the reservoir and still a fair bit of remaining uncertainty about the range of resources. Like you pointed out, I think we have quite a bit of confidence that we have de-risked through our appraisal program a volume that clears an economic development threshold, but I'm not really yet ready to describe a new range of resources from the Toronian. And we have a lot of work to do before we're ready to talk about the other reservoirs. and so what I expect is as we progress our appraisal program over the next 18 to 24 months we'll be in a better position to give a new updated resource range I just don't know it yet there's still quite a bit of uncertainty that we have obviously from our release materials and my comments just now we've learned quite a bit about the Turonian but there's still quite a bit of uncertainty how much of the and many more. I'm excited that the Tyronean system is filled in a lateral extent. It's still something that we have to think about. As we indicated, we don't expect that the reservoir above the discovery location in Tyronean should contain anything other than oil, but we have two data points. We expect in these type of systems that we would have variability of reservoir thickness, quality, et cetera, and we need to know more before we pin down our resource range. We believe that we're at the point where we have a project to develop here, but I don't have confidence in a new range yet, so we'll be working on that. Obviously, we haven't described that we have an active appraisal program coming up. There are quite a few remaining things to learn. I anticipate that we will, between now and probably the second quarter next year, we will kind of hone in on the most impactful and helpful wells to drill to reduce our remaining uncertainty in all the reservoirs so the things that we're thinking about you know we have about five six locations that make sense today to learn more and we're continuing to incorporate the data that we have recently collected from the wells we're re-looking at our seismic data set and incorporating the well data into the seismic data set and doing additional work to decide where to put the well locations to continue to reduce uncertainty in the most capital-efficient way. And so the kinds of wells we may drill in next year's program, the things that make most sense would likely be an up-dip Cenomanian that would be heading north of the discovery location. In the Albion, we could move up-dip or down-dip in the Albion from the West 1X location. In the Turonian, there's still a potential to have a well North or south of the West 1X location, so testing lateral extent of the channel system. There's a possibility of a Turonian well between the two, the Discovery and the West 1X location. And there's still a possibility of a down-dipped Turonian well, although I think that's less likely now with the results of our West 1X well. It's still possible that it's something we would pursue if we conclude that we have not encountered a definitive Turonian-wide oil water contact. We might be chasing oil down-dipped in some of the and Taronian Channel Sands. So there's still a lot of work to do. The team I'm really proud of. They're doing a great job of incorporating all the data, but we just are not yet ready to give a new resource range. And we're trying to, as you heard from us this morning, we're trying to tell everybody what we know, what we don't know, and be pretty transparent about it. And I know it's closely watched for the company. It's a really big deal for us. We're excited that this field, as we learn more about it, is looking more and more, giving us more and more confidence that we have a project here because the project here is significant for our shareholders as we exit this decade, head into the next decade, as we're likely looking to bring it online about six years from discovery to coming online first oil.
Arun Jayaram
Analyst, JPMorgan
Great. Thanks for that color. My follow-up is in Vietnam. You're approaching an FID decision in about 12 months from now at Hai Su Vong, Golden Sea Line. Can you give us a little bit of an update on just general thoughts around how that project is developing?
Eric Hambly
President and CEO
That's a really great question. What I'm really happy to tell you is that we are advancing our assessment and working with our partners and government at a faster pace than we have seen other companies be able to accomplish in the past in Vietnam. We have indicated that Vietnam is very supportive of our work there and they want to push to move things faster and we are seeing that happen. There are several steps in the process of going from discovery to an approved development and then executing it. The steps that we're executing there, we're moving through very rapidly. So I think we're on track for a project sanction at the end, let's say the fourth quarter of 2027. It's moving along very well with partners in government and no reason to have anything but happiness about how it's progressing.
Arun Jayaram
Analyst, JPMorgan
All right, great. Thanks, Eric.
Eric Hambly
President and CEO
Thanks, Arun.
Erica
Conference Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Doug Legat with Wolf Research. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Doug Leggate
Analyst, Wolfe Research
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Eric, a lot of geometry in your description this morning. I wonder if I could ask you to go a little deeper, pardon the pun, on the Albion feature. You haven't really talked to anything about the extent of how that compares to the shallower tests you've already done. So can you offer any color? It sounds like you're saying it's an oil-filled sand, so it sounds like No oil water contact on the Albion. What does that feature look like in terms of the scale?
Eric Hambly
President and CEO
The aerial extent of the Albion and the Cinnamanian, assuming that they are filled and our current seismic interpretation is correct, which is a big leap from where we are today, are similar in extent to the Turonian. We think the Turonian is potentially longer and narrower. and the Albion can be shorter and wider. We did sample oil in the Albion. Like we indicated, we think it's on the edge of a channel system. We confirmed that there'll be sampled oil. It's a nice looking oil with a low GOR or moderate GOR.
Doug Leggate
Analyst, Wolfe Research
I hate to press on this a wee bit, but you did give some permeability data on the Toronian, but you didn't mention anything about the sand quality in the deeper sections. Can you offer anything there? And I wonder if it was behind my question really is as we think about this moving towards a commercial development, one of the big challenges that that area has had in the past was the number of wells required to develop. So I'm trying to just thinking in terms of what, you know, what the capital intensity would be to bring something like this to market. So any color you can offer there would be great. Thank you.
Eric Hambly
President and CEO
Doug, so we are thinking about the same things that are on your mind, and that's why we're working through all the data. I'm not yet ready to share the data on the deeper horizons because we haven't yet done the work. So we've collected core. We will analyze it. It's being analyzed. We haven't yet done that work. I think it is normal to expect in many cases that you would have lower reservoir quality the deeper you go. I think we have some indication that the Sandemanian while not comprehensively yet assessed, the cinnamanian may be lower permeability than the tyronian. The limited data we have from the Albion, very limited data we have from the Albion, suggests that we found what maybe surprised us as even better reservoir quality than we would anticipate at this depth. So still a lot to learn, not yet ready. I'm very encouraged by the reservoir quality we've encountered in the Toronian with respect to how to efficiently and economically develop the field. We have more work to do before we have that same confidence in the other two reservoirs.
Doug Leggate
Analyst, Wolfe Research
Eric, would you mind if I just tagged on a quick follow-up? In your original range, was the Albion included in your original resource range?
Eric Hambly
President and CEO
So the range that we provided, the only range we provided so far, was our pre-drill range for the centimanian. And what we have said so far is we're not, I don't want to reference that range anymore. That was, before you had any data drilled here, we said the centimanian might have a certain range of mean to upside volumes, not the range, the full range. And that was for one reservoir. Like I said earlier, we don't yet know what a new range is. We contemplated one reservoir that was significant in its potential extent, and we encountered that reservoir, which is still significant in its potential extent, along with a Geronian and now an Albion that are significant in their extent. So we have a lot of work to do. What I would hesitate to say or have anyone think is we gave you a range for one that was a mean to upside, and now we have three reservoirs, and it's going to be three times that big. I don't expect that to be the case. I think we're We're honing in on a commercial scale development with a very large range of uncertainty of how large this resource is. And I don't want anyone to start multiplying things by three, four, or five. I think we ought to just do the work, make an assessment, progress through the appraisal program, give a new range. Again, I'm excited that I believe we have a commercial development in the Toronian, more resource to be fine-tuned in the other reservoirs. That's kind of what we know now. And we'll tell people more when we know more.
Doug Leggate
Analyst, Wolfe Research
Thanks so much, guys. I appreciate it. Thanks, Doug.
Erica
Conference Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Chris Baker with Evercore ISI. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Chris Baker
Analyst, Evercore ISI
Hey, good morning, guys. Eric, appreciate all the detail. You know, I guess maybe just a different angle on the same topic that's been asked. as you think about sort of a minimum resource you would need for the standalone development, given the encouraging signs that you've seen to date, what would that look like? And I guess in terms of the timeline, when would it make the most sense to potentially bring on a partner given your 85 to 90% working interest there?
Eric Hambly
President and CEO
Chris, great questions. Obviously, as we learn more about the Tironi, it'll influence our exact assessment of the resource we need to be commercial. The better the quality, the more continuous, et cetera, the less wells are required for the development to recover the same volume. So there's certainly work to be done to fine tune. Our screening numbers suggest we need over 150 million barrels, roughly, to make it work. And that's just developing standalone, a typical deep water field with an FPSO and a number of wells. So that's a a fairly low bar, but it's actually a pretty significant amount of volume. So that's kind of where we're sitting in terms of early screening number of what we need to clear a commercial threshold.
Chris Baker
Analyst, Evercore ISI
That's great. And I also wanted to touch base on the Eagle herd. You know, just curious how you're thinking about that within what seems like an opportunity rich 27 outlook here. in terms of a step up in capital and the timing, anything you can share there in terms of what the growth profile could look like and what CapEx cadence could end up being?
Eric Hambly
President and CEO
Yeah, so we indicated a couple of months ago that we were intending to ramp up our Eagleford. We added capital this year to resume drilling, which will allow us to accelerate bringing online wells earlier next year than our original plan for the year. that's the beginning of what I anticipate will be a multi-year ramp up to some new plateau rate for the Eagleford so we we will not bring online this year more wells in the Eagleford than our original plan but we will have wells ready to be completed late this year heading into early next year which will increase our annual average production rate next year materially and we're planning next year to run a steady program which would have a ramp through the year with a peak production in the fourth quarter, which is different than what we've done really for the last five years where we are practically done with our program by the third quarter. So that will lead to more capital deployment to Eagleford. Obviously, we haven't yet formulated our budget. We're going to work on that between now and the end of the year, and we'll present that in our fourth quarter earnings call in late January. But I think directionally, we're looking at Eagleford capital development increasing from sort of the plus or minus $300 million mark in the last year or two to around $500 million, somewhere in that ballpark in 2027. Again, more fine-tuning to be done. That's kind of how we're thinking about it.
Chris Baker
Analyst, Evercore ISI
Thank you.
Erica
Conference Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Leo Mariani with Roth Capital Partners. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Leo Mariani
Analyst, Roth Capital Partners
Hey, I just wanted to follow up on some of the comments that you made around Cote d'Ivoire. If I kind of heard you right, it sounds like still a lot of analysis to go, but perhaps you guys don't get to kind of the next appraisal well, maybe till sometime in the second half of 27. Is that reasonable? It sounded like you guys would really take your time and be thoughtful about where that next well goes.
Eric Hambly
President and CEO
Leo, we are actively working to secure a rig to conduct that appraisal program. We're in an advanced stage on our tender process. We have uncertainty about when specifically it arrives. I expect now that we would start that program sometime in the second quarter of next year, but I'll know a lot more when we actually tender the rig.
Leo Mariani
Analyst, Roth Capital Partners
Okay, thanks. I just wanted to follow up on Lock the Trong North. Have you guys been able to do some more work on that discovery? Obviously, it's a good-sized discovery. Do you have a sense of whether or not you guys need to drill an appraisal well, or do you think at this point it's just going to progress towards a subsea tieback, just any more color would be great?
Eric Hambly
President and CEO
The way we're thinking about it now is it's likely to be progressed as a subsea tieback without an appraisal well. We are likely to drill some exploration wells north of Lac du Trang. in the future, let's say in 27 or 28, that in the LactaCom complex, that's Orange Camel, and depending on how those wells come in, we would either develop LactaTrong, LactaTrongNorth, LactaCom as a new hub, or more likely, they would be tied back to the LactaVong infrastructure. And we'll know more about that as we continue to progress our evaluation. We're happy with our LactaTrong, LactaTrongNorth Discoveries. I think that their nice tieback scale will be developed very capital efficiently and likely will not have an appraisal well on Loc de Tronc North.
Leo Mariani
Analyst, Roth Capital Partners
Okay, that's helpful. And then on Eagle Ford, you obviously mentioned that you're going to spend more money next year. I think that's been very well socialized by you folks for a continuous program. It makes sense. And just how about any of the other kind of moving pieces that Do you see kind of the exploration and appraisal budget up, you know, a decent amount year over year as well in 27? It sounds like you're geared for more activity. It sounds like at least a couple wells in Côte d'Ivoire, maybe two or three there and several more wells in Vietnam. Just kind of any high-level color you can provide on kind of activity set and some of the bigger offshore stuff next year versus this year.
Eric Hambly
President and CEO
Sure. As we're thinking about our program next year, I expect our exploration program, which includes all of our seismic acquisition reprocessing data, all that kind of and drilling wells will be in the 10 to 15% of our total capital program. But our appraisal program at Bubal will be significant investment. The wells that we will drill appraising Bubal are likely in the 80 to $100 million range per location. and that's assuming that we don't conduct an extensive evaluation program. If we conduct an extensive evaluation program, that could easily get to be $110 million type range per location. So depending on the number of wells and how we progress them, there's significant uncertainty about our appraisal spend that will drive the bulk of our range of uncertainty in our capital program next year. What I can tell you as I'm thinking about setting our budget for the year, communicating it in January, we're likely to give capital guidance next year differently than we have historically. We're likely to give you a range that's reasonably tight for sort of our base business and then indicate the range of bootball appraisal spend. Again, because it's material and every well we drill in bootball will inform whether we want to drill more and how much there'll be and just that range of uncertainty is today significant, will likely continue to be significant as we head into the early part of next year. And we'll try to communicate that a bit differently.
Leo Mariani
Analyst, Roth Capital Partners
Okay. Appreciate it. Thank you.
Eric Hambly
President and CEO
Thanks, Leo.
Erica
Conference Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Noah Hungness with Wells Fargo. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Noah Hungness
Analyst, Wells Fargo
Morning. For my first question here, I did want to touch on kind of the central funding requirements for a CDI development and just how you're thinking about that and in the event of a potential farm down or asset sale, if you were to explore those options, could you maybe talk about the decision tree between those and if a farm down would be a farm down of the CDI asset or a farm down of some of your currently producing assets?
Eric Hambly
President and CEO
I would tell you that where we're sitting today, we don't have an answer of our best outcome for our shareholders, but that's how we'll be thinking about it. As we learn more about what we've found in Cote d'Ivoire, we will form a view of, do we want to keep all of the ownership we currently have in Bubal and the associated potential other discoveries on the blocks, or do we want to do something else with our assets? We're coming into this with a great balance sheet, a lot of liquidity, and a really good financial position to figure out what we have and decide the best outcome for shareholders. We're aware that we have assets that other people would like. So asset monetizations are something that we will think about. We're not yet in a position where we need to make those choices. We're conducting an appraisal program over the next 18 to 24 months. And at the end of that program, we'll probably have a better view for funding needs, size of the opportunity, size of the capital program, and then determine Does it make most sense to farm down what we found in Cote d'Ivoire or does it make sense to take on temporarily a bit of debt or does it make sense to sell potentially assets in our onshore business or potentially a combination of all those things? We're looking at that. We're modeling that. We don't have an answer to what the problem is yet, but we're aware that we have quite a few options to do it and we're really excited to have all those options.
Noah Hungness
Analyst, Wells Fargo
And then for my second question, I was wondering if you could talk about some of the exploration projects in the Gulf of America. Would these be greenfield exploration developments, brownfield expansions? Just some of your latest thoughts on that asset.
Eric Hambly
President and CEO
Yeah, great question. So the way we think about our opportunity set in the Gulf, we have a handful of hub scale prospects. and quite a few tieback scale opportunities that are near our existing infrastructure, mostly that we operate. And so you'll see us over the next three, four years in the Gulf conduct a program that occasionally tests a hub scale opportunity exploration well and more often does tieback scale things near our existing infrastructure. As we're thinking about our program next year, we have choices to make. I anticipate next year's program in the Gulf of America will feature a hub scale test, but we haven't formalized that yet. When we announce our budget in January, we'll let you know what our program is, but I think we're likely to test one hub scale prospect in the Gulf and in Vietnam, some tieback scale opportunities in the block that contains Loc de Vang 15105. Great, thanks. Thank you.
Erica
Conference Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Philip Jungwirth with BMO. Your line is open. Please go ahead. Philip? Your next question comes from the line of Josh Silverstein with UBS. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Josh Silverstein
Analyst, UBS
Yeah, thanks. Good morning, guys. Wanted to touch on the cost structure. LOE was very low this quarter, and you reduced the full year raise to the bottom end of that $10 to $12 per BOE range. Can you just talk about how this is trending into next year? I don't know if there were any one-off items in there, but clearly a good result this quarter.
Eric Hambly
President and CEO
Josh, thanks for that. Obviously, we haven't set our program for next year definitively. This quarter, we are choosing to have a pretty active workover program in the Gulf. We identified a number of wells that were either had a potential to produce at higher rates or in the case of one well not producing, that we were able to go in, do some workover activity and add volumes as we either exit this year or head into next year. I think we'll see some of that activity continue into the first quarter of next year, but then the rest of the year is likely not to have significant workover activity. Again, we still haven't set our budget for next year, but I expect that some of the work we're doing in this quarter will carry into the first quarter of next year. And again, we've been communicating probably for a few years now that we anticipate operating expenses to be in the $10 to $12 per barrel range. I would expect that that's a reasonable number for 2027 as well. So, yep, that's kind of where we are.
Josh Silverstein
Analyst, UBS
Okay. Okay. And then just curious about the shareholder return thoughts as well. Obviously, there's a bit of uncertainty as to what the CapEx budget looks like for next year and what the long-term budget may be around potential development there. Are the buybacks on hold for now as you just kind of look to keep the balance sheet in good shape for potential bigger CapEx opportunities for you guys? I know you had previously done that, but you want to make sure the dividend is paid and keep the balance sheet in good shape. So I'm just curious on that front end.
Eric Hambly
President and CEO
Yeah, that's a great question, and it's something that I think about about 12 times a day, Josh. The way I think about it is that we believe that our shares do not reflect the value of some of our expansion opportunities that we see in front of us for Haise Vang, does not reflect any value for Cote d'Ivoire. They probably don't reflect value for Cote d'Ivoire because we haven't been able to tell you how big it is, so how would anyone value it? I understand that. As we learn more, we will probably conclude that we anticipate a period of time between learning about the field and trying to communicate the potential value of it that our share price may not move to reflect that because of discounting, risking, etc. It probably will encourage us to buy our shares because they'll be cheap relative to what we think intrinsic value will be. If we see periods in the next year or so that our share price pulls back significantly lower than even a fairly conservative view of intrinsic value, we're likely to buy back stock. I would like to reward our long holding shareholders by concentrating the value of the company in less shareholders that are long holders and buying back stock is a nice way of doing that. Having said that, We will protect the balance sheet. We'll be careful about debt level. That's very important for us. So we have a bit of tension in the system between funding the appraisal program and understanding what we have, buying back stock. Those are intention and we'll be thinking about that and be monitoring oil price because our share price moves a lot with oil price and be thinking about how do we win for our shareholders.
Josh Silverstein
Analyst, UBS
Thanks, Eric.
Erica
Conference Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Philip Jungwirth with BMO. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Philip Jungwirth
Analyst, BMO
Yeah, thanks. Good morning. You made some really good progress on Eagleford Wellcost this quarter and was just hoping you could hit on the drivers there and then As you look to run a larger and I assume more level-loaded program next year, do you think there could be incremental efficiencies that come out of it as a result? And then just what do you think on the cost side, inflation at the moment?
Eric Hambly
President and CEO
Thanks, Bill. Let me give you kind of high-level view, and I'll ask Chris Larino to provide maybe a little bit of additional color. This year's program, we're really excited about our well costs coming down materially. We reduced our cost per foot to drill and our cost per foot to complete. The drilling work was about five different things the team really focused on. Completion, we are getting very efficient at how we're pumping these frac jobs, and we're also tailoring every stage of the frac job to be the most capital efficient possible, operationally efficient, and 26% reduction year over year in well-cost drill completes. Pretty impressive. As I was prepping for our call this morning, I noted that our completion cost per foot realized in 26 is the lowest completion cost per foot we have seen in our Eagle for business to date. Lower than 2016 when service costs were very low, lower than 21 when service costs were low. We really nailed it out of the park. Part of that is long laterals. It's not just long laterals. It's also operational efficiencies. Chris, I don't know if you have any color to add to that.
Chris Laurino
Senior Vice President of Operations
Yeah, you hit on it. The combination from the longer laterals and the completions efficiency, we keep continuing to be creative on how we get our cost per foot down and really tailoring each pad to the best outcome and the best plan to get the BOEs out. So we continue to see that improve and you think it would flatline start to flatline, but we're continuing to see improvement there by tailoring each one. And it is a combination of the longer laterals with our completions efficiency.
Philip Jungwirth
Analyst, BMO
That's great. And then a bit more frontier than court to bar, but was hoping you could talk about the entrance into Maritania and what drew you to this area next steps after signing the the PSE and just confirm is the objective here oil just because the country does have a large LNG project also?
Eric Hambly
President and CEO
Yeah, great questions. Mauritania is to us what we've been communicating our portfolio needs, which is low cost entry into material opportunities that we can assess relatively cheaply and test relatively cheaply. And we're really happy with our entry here into Mauritania. We are exploring for oil. We do recognize there are gas discoveries in the area. We are looking for oil in the deep water in Mauritania and we think it checks the box of those things. Low cost of entry, low cost to assess, relatively low cost to test, good financial, good fiscal regime, etc. After signing the PSC, which we've just done this week, we'll move forward to do some seismic reprocessing and studies work and will decide at some point if our thoughts around our prospectivity are confirmed by reprocessed seismic and more assessment, and we'll make a decision about a potential well in the future. I would guess at this point that a well being drilled, an exploration well, was probably not something we'd do until perhaps 2029 or that kind of timeframe. So very limited spend, mostly around seismic reprocessing and assessment work. here over the next two years or so.
Philip Jungwirth
Analyst, BMO
That's great. Thanks.
Eric Hambly
President and CEO
Thank you.
Erica
Conference Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Charles Mead with Johnson Rice. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Charles Meade
Analyst, Johnson Rice
Good morning, Eric, to you and the rest of the Murphy team there. I'd like to go back to the question around the Cote d'Ivoire You've got a really interesting challenge here in front of you and probably no one path that's going to please everybody or satisfy all the competing priorities. But I wonder if you could talk about your philosophy for the appraisal. Maybe the relative priority of establishing a minimum threshold in the Toronian versus versus, you know, sizing and eventual development. And I'm really, you know, wondering how that plays into the, you know, your current thinking about perhaps the sequencing of the appraisal wells. Like, if you're more interested in clearing that minimum threshold up front, or rather you're more interested in sizing it perhaps with a, you know, a cinnamonian or Albion test before then.
Eric Hambly
President and CEO
Yeah, that's a really good question. It gives us a chance to talk about how we think about our development strategy here as it relates to appraisal. What we have done with most of our developments over the last two decades at Murphy is appraise enough to get to a point where we have confidence that we're not materially over or undersizing the development to efficiently develop the resource, but also not appraised to the point where we have no remaining uncertainty. So what I would expect us to do here is to learn enough that we can build, we can design an FPSO that is not significantly too large or too small. It addresses a reasonable range of outcomes, both in total resource size and productivity of the wells. And we move forward with development while we continue to learn more about the full potential of all the reservoirs in the field. So we're going to get to a point where we're not committing large capital that is misdesigned for the resource that we have and the rates we can produce it. And if you think about that, we're spending significant money appraising. Let's just say we'll spend another three, $400 million of the ball. That's an estimate. I don't know if we'll do that, but if we keep finding oil, we'll keep doing that. That is a lot of money, but it is not of the same magnitude as a $10 to $20 per barrel capital development of a material resource. So It's important to us to get right the large capital investment by learning enough that we don't make a mistake and be significantly too big or too small. But we're not going to praise and reduce all uncertainty and then commit to a development. We're going to, at some point, decide we have enough that we can be flexible and we can move forward and we'll learn as we develop the field.
Charles Meade
Analyst, Johnson Rice
Got it. That is amazing. That's helpful for the generalities. I'm going to try to drill in maybe one step further. Is your next appraisal going to be that Taronian in between the Discovery and the 1X? You mentioned you prepare comments. You think you're in pressure communication, but I imagine that a test there could confirm that possibly, which really raises the low end of the bar. And perhaps also there is a... There is some potential for appraisal in the Centermanian and Albion if you choose that in between locations. Is that next?
Eric Hambly
President and CEO
So as I mentioned earlier, we don't yet know the sequence of wells or which exact locations. We're doing that work now. By the time we start our appraisal program in the second quarter, we'll have an order that we'll know and we'll act on. I can't yet tell you what the next one will be because we're doing the work. I think, again, restating Sennemanian Up Dip, Albion Up Dip or Down Dip, a Turonian well between a Turonian well north of the West 1X. Those are all likely places where we would drill the first well. Your assessment of the ability to learn more about the Turonian by putting a well in between is valid and we were thinking about it the same way. I don't yet know if that's the next well. It's a well that we're considering doing. We're going to do more work to figure out the optimal thing to advance the project in the most capital efficient way. And I don't have an answer yet, unfortunately.
Charles Meade
Analyst, Johnson Rice
No, that's great color, Eric. It's going to be really interesting to watch this unfold. Thank you for the commentary. Thanks so much.
Erica
Conference Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Jack Cavanaugh with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Jack Cavanaugh
Analyst, Goldman Sachs
Good morning, team. I wanted to start on L'Occitane. You know, it's a great milestone to bring that on in 3Q. but I was wondering if you could speak to the shape of what that ramp looks like to peak production in 28, 29, as well as the timing on when you could develop, you know, any one of these tieback opportunities in the area. At Lac du Vent, we anticipate adding a second well this year.
Eric Hambly
President and CEO
We'll continue to deliver more wells through 27, 28, and 29. Next year, production rate is probably, net to us, probably 3,000 to 5,000 barrels a day. Exit rate is probably in the 7,000 to 12,000 barrel a day range. I'm sorry, exit of 2027 to be clear. And we anticipate peak production of 10,000 to 15,000 barrels a day net to us probably in 28 or 29. Got it.
Jack Cavanaugh
Analyst, Goldman Sachs
I appreciate that. And maybe, you know, reflecting on the Devon Eagleford sale process, I'm just curious what that told you about the market value of your asset and if that changes any of the way you view kind of the optionality of holding that asset within your longer term vision for the portfolio.
Eric Hambly
President and CEO
I think what we learned from Devin's process was that the Eagleford is attractive to even more potential buyers than we might have previously thought and confirms that we have an asset that other people value. We like our asset. We are happy that we have an ability to use the Eagleford to ramp it up to generate more free cash flow to help fund our appraisal program and other priorities for our company. We're very aware that it's valuable and we're happy to have the flexibility that if in the future we chose to sell our Eagleford or part of our Eagleford, it could be a nice place of funding if we determine that's the best outcome for our shareholders and the most value creating. And so, yeah, I think it's interesting to see asset of that scale have so much attention from so many players and reconfirms that we have a great asset here. Appreciate it.
Jack Cavanaugh
Analyst, Goldman Sachs
Thanks.
Erica
Conference Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Betty Jang with Barclays. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Betty Jiang
Analyst, Barclays
Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I want to ask about GOA. You guys delivered a pretty strong quarter in 3Q, but I think 4Q Guide is not. There are some changes in the 4Q Guide. Can you just maybe speak to the quarter-on-quarter variations, how much of the Chinook startup you're baking in, and how should we be thinking about the go-up production trajectory into next year?
Chris Laurino
Senior Vice President of Operations
Yeah, thanks, Betty. I'll let Chris address that. Yeah, so just looking at our offshore only, we do, you know, obviously we're very excited about the Chinook 8 well being online, and it's going to provide about 9,000 barrels of oil per day for the quarter, so really strong well. and excited about that. But that was, as far as quarter on quarter, that was offset a little bit by the weather and the hurricane that happened at the beginning of the quarter, which was around 3,700 BOE. And then in addition to that, Eric mentioned some of the workovers that are happening. Some of them are getting, do have production. So while we work on those wells, they'll be shut in as well. So, and that includes a non-operated workover at Kodiak as well. So that kind of offsets the impact, the big impact from the Chinook 8 well, which kind of gives you kind of a flattish or up about 1200 BOE per day, quarter on quarter for offshore. In addition to that, we also have some planned maintenance at Delta House that kind of also offsets that.
Betty Jiang
Analyst, Barclays
So then I will assume the first half of next year, we'll start seeing the volumes go back to a higher level after the work over?
Chris Laurino
Senior Vice President of Operations
Yeah, so we'll be done. We'll be done, but one of the workovers, one will go into first quarter, and so we'll be done with them, and that'll be early first quarter is what it looks like, so we'll have all that behind us very early in the year, and then we'll ramp back up for our golf production.
Betty Jiang
Analyst, Barclays
Great, thank you. And then my follow-up on LE, I think the production cost management has been coming in consistently lower. Maybe just speak to what's driving that lower LOE cost and how you think about the LOE cost range going forward, especially with now Eagle for expected to ramp into next year.
Eric Hambly
President and CEO
Thanks, Betty. Our operating expenses offshore, excluding work over activity, tend to be very steady. Our onshore teams have been very focused, particularly our Eagle Over team, on continuing to lower operating expenses to be more competitive. I'm proud of the work they've done. They have addressed that across multiple categories. They focus on labor costs. We optimize our labor costs all the time. They're focused on equipment rental, water disposal, chemicals. We have a remote operations center that we deployed in 2017 and continue to enhance its capability every year. They're focused on minimizing downtime by maximizing the best wells coming online when we do have upsets. And all of that's contributing to Eagleford operating costs improving materially. Within the Eagleford from quarter to quarter, we have variability in the dollar per barrel optics, mostly driven by variability in our production profile with a very, very nice effort from our team to lower total dollar operating expenses there. That's really the story.
Betty Jiang
Analyst, Barclays
Right. Thanks. Thanks. What a caller.
Eric Hambly
President and CEO
Thanks, Betty.
Erica
Conference Operator
Again, if you would like to ask a question, press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Hambly, I turn the call back over to you.
Eric Hambly
President and CEO
Thank you, operator. As we close today, I just want to thank our employees for their hard work and dedication. We've done a great job. We had excellent execution throughout the quarter, across our entire organization, and I'm really proud of what we delivered. As always, to our shareholders, we appreciate your continued trust and support, and that concludes our call for today. Thanks so much.
Erica
Conference Operator
This concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.