MWA Mueller Water Products, Inc.
$24.63
Mueller Water Products, Inc. Q4 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript
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Operator
Good morning, everyone.
Whit
Investor Relations
Thank you for joining Mueller Water Products' fourth quarter and fiscal 2026 conference call. Yesterday afternoon, we issued our press release reporting results for the quarter and year ended September 30th, 2026. The release is available on our website, MuellerWaterProducts.com. Joining me this morning are Paul McAndrew, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Mike Morgan, our Executive Vice President of Finance and future Chief Financial Officer. After our prepared remarks, we will take questions about the information covered on the call. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up and then return to the queue. Today's call is being recorded and webcast live on the internet. The accompanying slides are available on our website and include our forward-looking statements and non-GAAP disclosures. Please turn to slide two, which identifies the non-GAAP financial measures referenced in our press release slides and remarks. and explains why we believe these measures are useful to investors. Reconciliations of non-GAAP measures to GAAP measures are included in the supplemental information in our press release and on our website. Slide three addresses forward-looking statements made on this call. This slide includes cautionary information identifying important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those included in forward-looking statements. Please review slides two and three in their entirety. Unless otherwise noted, all references to years and quarters on this call refer to our fiscal year, which ends September 30th. A replay of this morning's call will be available for 30 days at 1-800-819-5743. The archived webcasts and corresponding slides will be available for at least 90 days on the investor relations section of our website. I'll now turn the call over to Paul.
Paul McAndrew
President and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Whit. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our fourth quarter and fiscal 2026 earnings call. 2026 was an excellent year for Mueller. We delivered record results and made meaningful progress in strengthening the business. Full year net sales increased 3.2% to approximately $1.5 billion, supported by enhanced commercial execution and resilient end market demand. Higher pricing was partially offset by lower volumes. Adjusted EBITDA grew 14.1% year-over-year to a record $372 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 240 basis points to 25.2%, bringing our cumulative expansion over the past three years to 940 basis points. Adjusted net income per share reached a record $1.57, an increase of approximately 20% year over year. Free cash flow was strong in the fourth quarter and for the full year, totaling $207 million for the year. This cash generation enabled us to return $74 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. We recently announced a $300 million increase in our share repurchase authorization and a 14.3% increase in our quarterly dividend to $0.08 per share. These actions reflect our confidence in Mueller's strategy and our ability to continue investing in the business. Three things drove our progress. First, operational improvements through greater productivity and disciplined cost management. including SG&A Productivity. Second, commercial execution through improved service levels, strategic pricing and strong growth in specialty valves. Third, a stronger organization built around leadership accountability. Together, these efforts have made Mueller a more profitable business and positioned us well for fiscal 2027. These results reflect the hard work and dedication of our employees across Mueller. I want to thank our teams for their commitment to our customers and to making the company stronger. I am proud of what we have accomplished together. I also want to highlight an important announcement about our metering business. We have entered into an agreement to transition the business, which operates through our Mueller Systems subsidiary. to Zener USA, who is part of the Manal Zener Group. Following a comprehensive portfolio review, we believe that exiting this business will improve earnings quality, simplify operations, strengthen returns on invested capital, and allow us to direct resources towards areas with stronger growth potential. This transition is another decisive step in strengthening Muir. Metering requires scale and technology investments that a more specialized company is better positioned to provide. Zener is an established global metering company with extensive industry experience and compatible technology. We believe these capabilities will support a smooth transition for our customers. This decision reinforces our focus on building a stronger, More profitable Mueller through disciplined execution of our strategy, supported by the Mueller operating system. As we expand margins, accelerate growth, and create long-term shareholder value. We will begin the transition immediately and work closely with our customers and suppliers to maintain service continuity and ongoing support. We expect most of the transition to occur in 2027. Although some activity and associated costs could extend beyond this year. The timing of customers migration to the XANA platform will be the main source of variability in the phased transition. In connection with the agreement, we expect to incur approximately $26 million of one-time expenses in fiscal 2027. These primarily relate to the outstanding warranty liability, operating and customer service costs, transaction related costs and severance. The transition impacts will be adjusted as appropriate in our key financial metrics. The one-time and ongoing transition activities will be included in net sales, cost of sales, and strategic reorganization and other charges. The majority of the expenses will be incurred during the first quarter, with most of the remaining expenses incurred prior to the end of the year. Finally, the financial impacts and benefits will occur in the water management solutions segment. For 2026, we generated approximately $40 million in metering-related sales with a negative adjusted EBITDA margin. We expect the transaction to support adjusted EBITDA margin expansion with a 100 to 140 basis points annualized benefit, primarily beginning in the second quarter of fiscal 2027. At the midpoint of the range, this would be approximately $8 million favorable to EBITDA on an annualized basis. Taking the one-time expenses and annualized benefit into account, we believe the cash return on investment of completing this transition is very attractive relative to other opportunities. I would like to welcome Mike Morgan, who joined Mueller on October 28th and will become our Chief Financial Officer on or about November 19th, following the filing of our annual report. He most recently served as Chief Financial Officer of Indicor and previously held senior finance roles at LabCorp and Timpkin. Mike is a proven industrial finance leader with an extensive track record working with management teams and boards to improve performance and drive profitable growth. Here we cap our fourth quarter and full year performance and I'll provide more details on our annual guidance for 2027.
Mike Morgan
Executive Vice President of Finance and incoming Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Paul. Good morning, everyone. It's an exciting time to join Mueller. Over the coming months, I look forward to meeting many of you and working with Paul and the leadership team to strengthen execution Support Discipline Investment, and Advanced Mueller Strategy for Profitable Growth. Fourth quarter net sales decreased 1.1% versus prior year to $376.5 million with water management solutions up 1.4% and water flow solutions down 3.0%. The year-over-year decrease in consolidated net sales was primarily driven by lower volumes partially offset by higher pricing across most product lines. In the quarter, gross profit of $139.3 million decreased 0.5% year over year, and gross margin expanded 20 basis points to 37.0%. We incurred $600,000 of Decatur Legacy Brass Foundry cost in the water flow solution segment. Excluding these costs, our gross margin was 37.2%. This was down 100 basis points compared with the prior year, excluding the $5.6 million warranty charge at Water Management Solutions in the prior year. The decrease was primarily driven by lower volumes, product mix, and inflationary pressures, including the impact of higher Section 232 tariffs, partially offset by higher pricing and manufacturing performance. For the full year, we achieved a record gross margin of 37.9%, an increase of 180 basis points compared with the prior year. Excluding the impact of tariff refunds, portfolio optimization costs, and Decatur foundry closure costs, adjusted gross margin was 37.8%. Gross margin expanded 100 basis points compared with the prior year, excluding one-time items in both periods. This increase was primarily driven by manufacturing performance and price costs. Total SG&A expenses for the quarter of $57.3 million decreased $9.4 million year-over-year, primarily due to lower incentive-based compensation, favorable personnel-related costs resulting from productivity actions, and reduced foreign currency headwinds, partially offset by inflationary pressures. We incurred $8.9 million of strategic reorganization and other charges, which has been excluded from adjusted results. These costs primarily relate to closure of our legacy brass foundry in Decatur, Illinois, and severance. Strategic reorganization and other charges and the brass foundry closure cost and gross profit have been excluded from adjusted results for the fourth quarter. For the quarter, adjusted EBITDA of $95.5 million increased 4.0% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 130 basis points versus prior year to 25.4%, setting a new fourth quarter record. Our strong margin performance was driven by higher pricing, lower SG&A expenses, and manufacturing performance partially offset by inflationary pressures, lower volumes, product mix, and tariffs. For the full year, adjusted EBITDA increased 14.1% year over year to a record $372.2 million, representing 25.2% of net sales. For the quarter adjusted net income per share was 38 cents, which was flat compared with prior year. Our fourth quarter effective income tax rate was 28.0% compared with 23.4% in the prior year quarter. The fourth quarter income tax rate was within our expectations as our annual guidance for the full year effective tax rate was 21 to 23%. For the full year, The effective income tax rate was 22.7% as compared with 24.6% in the prior year. The lower effective tax rate for the full year was primarily due to a one-time tax benefit resulting from the recognition of a loss on a foreign subsidiary investment. This benefit was in the third quarter and equates to a one-time cash tax benefit of six cents per share. Full-year adjusted net income per share increased 19.8% year-over-year to a record $1.57 per share. As a reminder, full-year earnings per share included a combined $0.09 benefit from tariff refunds and the one-time tax item associated with the ITO business exit. Turning now to segment performance, starting with Waterflow Solutions. Fourth quarter net sales decreased 3.0% year-over-year to $210.9 million primarily due to lower iron gate valve and service brass volumes. These declines were partially offset by higher pricing across most product lines and increased specialty valve volumes. Adjusted EBITDA increased 7.0% year-over-year to $67.1 million and adjusted EBITDA margin improved 300 basis points versus prior year to 31.8%. This improvement was driven by manufacturing performance, higher pricing, and lower SG&A expenses, which more than offset lower volumes, product mix, inflationary pressures, and tariffs. For the full year, adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 430 basis points year over year to 33.0%, a record for the segment. Moving on to water management solutions, fourth quarter net sales increased 1.4% year over year to $165.6 million driven by higher pricing across most product lines and volume growth in repair and natural gas distribution products. These were partially offset by lower volumes of applications and hydrants. Adjusted EBITDA decreased 8.4% year over year to $41.2 million and adjusted EBITDA margin of 24.9% decreased 270 basis points. The decrease was due to lower volumes, tariffs and inflationary pressures partially offset by higher pricing and lower SG&A expenses, including reduced foreign currency headwinds. For the full year, adjusted EBITDA margin was 24.6%, slightly below the prior year. Moving on to cash flow. For the year, free cash flow increased $35.3 million to $207.3 million and was 84% of adjusted net income. Free cash flow exceeded our expectations primarily due to favorable working capital and lower capital expenditures. Net cash provided by operating activities for the year increased by $43.6 million year-over-year to $262.9 million, primarily driven by higher net income and lower cash taxes Partially offset by changes in working capital. We increased our capital expenditures by 17.5% year over year to $55.6 million or 3.8% of net sales, primarily driven by investments in our iron foundries. We ended the year with $566 million in cash and cash equivalents and $454 million in total debt. Our balance sheet remains exceptionally strong, providing significant flexibility for organic investment and strategic growth opportunities. We have no debt maturities until June, 2029. Our senior notes total $450 million at a favorable fixed interest rate of 4% and we had no borrowings under our ABL facility. Total year end liquidity was $731 million, including $165 million available under the ABL facility. This positions us to reinvest in the business, return cash to shareholders, and pursue acquisitions in existing and adjacent markets that create value. I'll now turn it back to Paul to discuss the outlook for 2027.
Paul McAndrew
President and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Mike. I now review our fiscal 2027 outlook, which excludes all metering-related financial results. We expect consolidated net sales between $1.44 and $1.47 billion. In fiscal 2026, the metering related sales were approximately $40 million. Excluding the portfolio optimization headwind, our net sales would range between flat and approximately 2.5% higher year over year. For price realization, we are assuming a low single to mid single digit benefit for the year. This includes carryover pricing and new price increases sometime in Q2, which we have not yet announced. The year-over-year volume headwinds are mainly driven by the prior hydrant backlog benefit at Water Management Solutions. Excluding this impact, we anticipate consolidated volumes will be flat at the midpoint. This includes double-digit specialty valve growth and benefits from commercial initiatives. These benefits will be offset by slower new residential construction activity and cautious purchasing behaviour from municipalities in terms of repair and replacement. We expect our adjusted EBITDA to range from $378 to $388 million. At the midpoint of our guidance range, adjusted EBITDA achieves a 26.3% margin for the year, reflecting a 110 basis point year-over-year improvement. This would be a 150 basis point year-over-year expansion, excluding the prior year tariff refund benefit. The expansion is driven by the metering and I2O portfolio optimization actions, higher pricing, Manufacturing Performance, and SG&A Productivity, partially offset by inflationary pressures, lower volumes, and product mix. Similar to the prior year, we expect our second half net sales and adjusted EBITDA margin to be higher than the first half of the year, with the first quarter lower than the second quarter. This is driven primarily by the seasonality of our business, where construction activity ramps up in the spring, and the timing of the benefits from the portfolio optimization and operational improvements. For the water flow solution segment, we expect net sales growth in the low single to mid single digits range, supported by higher pricing and volume growth from specialty valves, partially offset by lower volumes of iron gate valves and service brass products. We anticipate adjusted EBITDA margin will be up slightly versus the prior year, excluding tariff refunds. Benefits from higher pricing and specialty valve volume growth will be partially offset by lower volumes of iron gate valves and service brass and inflationary pressures. For the water management solution segment, we anticipate net sales to decrease in the high single-digit range, reflecting lower sales associated with the metering portfolio optimization and the prior year hydrant backlog benefit. We expect strong adjusted EBITDA margin expansion, even with the lower sales, primarily driven by higher pricing, lower SG&A related to the portfolio optimization benefits, and manufacturing performance. Partially offset by lower volume of hydrants, inflationary pressures, and higher tariffs. We expect total SG&A expenses of $228 to $233 million, reflecting portfolio optimization benefits, including the metering business transition. We expect an effective tax rate of 24 to 26%, reflecting a more normalized rate of the prior year one-time tax benefit. We expect free cash flow to exceed 80% of adjusted net income, including higher capital expenditures of 60 to 70 million dollars. We will continue investing in growth, operational efficiencies and domestic capacity with a focus on our IOM foundries. Before opening it up for Q&A, I want to provide a few closing comments. We delivered strong results in an uncertain operating environment by focusing on customer service, disciplined execution and investments in capabilities that support long-term value creation. Our fiscal 2027 priorities are straightforward. Protect the strength of our core business, improve operational returns and invest in the best opportunities to create value. Our balance sheet gives us capacity to invest as we pursue above market sales growth and continued margin expansion. While we remain mindful of market uncertainty, we enter the year with a clear agenda and confidence in our ability to take another step forward in margin performance. The Mueller operating system supports these priorities with tools, processes, and management disciplines that strengthen execution, accountability, and continuous improvement across the company. This quarter provides further evidence that the system is taking hold. I want to thank our employees worldwide for their extraordinary commitment to our customers and communities. They are the reason for our success and why Mueller has been a trusted partner for more than a century. That concludes our comments. Operator, please open the call up for questions.
Conference Operator
Operator
Thank you, sir. At this time, if you would like to ask a question, you may press star 1. Please unmute your phones and state your name when prompted. To withdraw your question, please press star 2. One moment, please, for the first question. Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs, your line is open.
Keshav Chaudhary
Goldman Sachs
Hey, guys. This is Keshav Chaudhary on for Brian Lee. Thanks for taking my question. Firstly, your 2027 sales guidance implies some growth, even excluding the metering business. Can you maybe walk us through what you're assuming for residential construction versus municipal repair and replacement and specialty walls within that outlook? Thank you.
Conference Operator
Operator
One moment please. Please continue to stand by. We're experiencing technical difficulties. Please continue to stand by. Please continue to stand by. We're experiencing technical difficulty. Please continue to stand by. Brian Lee, you may go ahead and ask your question again from Goldman Sachs.
Keshav Chaudhary
Goldman Sachs
Yeah. Hey, guys.