NAMM Namib Minerals

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$1.30

Namib Minerals Q2 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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Dan
Investor Relations
Thank you, operator, and thank you to everyone for joining us today for Namib Minerals' first half 2026 earnings call. Joining me today are Tulani Sikwila, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Siphesihle Mchunu, Chief Financial Officer of Namib Minerals. Please note that we will be making forward-looking statements based on current expectations and assumptions, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. These include statements about our production and cost guidance, the commissioning and ramp-up of the expanded milling plant at Hau Mine, the timing and scope of the restart of Red Wing Mine, our financing plans, and the implementation of Zimbabwe's mining policy framework. These statements reflect our views only as of today and should not be relied upon as representative of our views of any subsequent date. These statements are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. A discussion of these factors can be found on SEC filings, including our Form 20F, filed on April 2nd, 2026, and the report on Form 6K, furnished today, containing our 2026 first half results, as well as the risk factors and forward-looking statements language contained in our other public disclosures. We undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, except as required by law. Today's remarks also reference certain non-IFRS financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA, C1 cash costs, and all-in sustaining cost per ounce. These measures are intended to supplement and not substitute our results presented in accordance with IFRS. Definitions and reconciliations of these measures are available in our filings with the SEC and our other public disclosures. Additionally, mineral resource and reserve estimates are subject to uncertainty and mineral resources may not convert to mineral reserves, ultimately result in mined gold. Investors should not assume that any mineral resources will be economically or legally mineable. Please refer to our public disclosures for complete definitions and cautionary language in accordance with SEC regulation SK 1300. With that, let me turn the call over to Tulani.
Tulani Sikwila
Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
Thank you Dan and good day everyone. Thank you for joining us for NAMIB Minerals first half 2026 results. I want to begin with an overview of the progress NAMIB Minerals has made since our last call and provide updates on how mine, Red Wing, our development strategy and how we are funding our plan and our priorities for the remainder of the year. I will then turn the call over to Spey to walk through our financial performance in greater detail. The first half of 2026 was a period of both progress and continued investment across Namib Minerals. Financially, the business benefited from a significantly stronger gold price environment, while the cost and efficiency initiatives we have implemented across the organization also began to show tangible results. The company delivered a step change in underlying earnings. Revenue was up 40% to $50.8 million. Gross profit doubled to $27 million, a margin of 53%. And adjusted EBITDA was up 76% to $19 million. That was driven by a significantly stronger gold price and it was achieved with production costs that were lower in absolute terms than a year ago. Operationally, Howe Mine produced 11,373 ounces in 2026 H1, 11% below the 12,741 ounces we produced in 2025 H1. The main cause was the grade at 1.7 grams per tonne against 1.9 a year ago on broadly the same tonnage. Because of that first half and the expanded meal will now contribute only part of the fourth quarter. We are revising our full year production guidance today. I will provide the numbers and the reasoning in a moment. Strategically, 2026 H1 and the week since have moved the company forward. We completed dewatering at Red Wing on September 21, 2026, ahead of the fourth quarter target we published in July. We have published development timelines and milestones, which are called the development milestones with regard to Red Wing's development. We are now bringing forward the restart of production at Red Wing, which I will discuss in more detail shortly. The restart will be funded from internally generated cash flows with the first goal targeted for no later than January, 2027. We have also maintained our disciplined approach to funding, engaging with local banks to secure facilities for development milestones without issuing new equity. Howmine remains the operating foundation of Namib Minerals and the principal source of production for our portfolio today. During the first half of the year, production was affected by lower grades and a slight dip in tonnage. While throughput and recovery remain relatively stable, the mine has been constrained by its mill. In the first half, we milled 233,000 tons, which is close to everything the existing plant can process. When grade falls, as it did, there is no spare capacity to make up the ounces with tans. The mill expansion removes that constraint. It lifts our processing capacity from approximately and many more. The installation of the processing capacity is substantially complete. The mill is installed. The pre-commissioning checks are underway. We expect to commission mid-October. That is within the second half timeline we gave. It is however later than the production plan and behind our original guidance assumed. We expect a ramp up period of six to eight weeks, which means the expanded plan should be running at its full rate by the end of December. This is an important milestone in our business. The additional capacity will support a meaningful increase in throughput and will allow us to spread our existing cost base across greater production volumes. Our guidance for 2026 was 28,000 to 31,500 ounces. Reaching even the lower end of the range would require more production in the final months of the year. and the expanded plant can deliver at full capacity. And it will not be at full capacity until later in the quarter. We are therefore revising our full year 2026 production guidance to 26,500 to 27,000 ounces. That range assumes commissioning in mid October. A ramp up of six to eight weeks and head grades of 1.7 to 1.9 grams per ton. Spey will cover what this means for our cost guidance. The revision is about timing in 2026. It's not about the capacity of the asset. Once the expanded plant is at full rate, Howe Mine is capable of producing an annualized rate of more than 30,000 ounces at the grades we are mining today. That is the rate at which we expect to enter 2027 and we will give formal 2027 guidance in the first quarter. As Spey will set out in detail, we have also made good progress on the cost side by tightening our approach to procurement and driving efficiencies across the operation to streamline the underlying cost base. A meaningful portion of our mine's cost base is fixed. Lower production in the first half of the year spread those costs across fewer ounces, so the savings we have made in absolute terms have not yet shown up on a per ounce basis. We expect unit costs to improve as the expanded plant ramps up through the fourth quarter and into 2027. Turning to Red Wing, where we have an important update. In July, we published the development milestones as a restart pathway for Red Wing, whereby we say the production would follow completion of the definitive feasibility study. We will now bring production forward. I want to explain why, because this is a change from what we communicated previously. Recently, Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines and Mining Development announced a policy framework that foreign-owned operators are required to be operating above prescribed production and capital investment thresholds by January 1, 2027. How mine already operates above these thresholds? Red Wing and Mazowe due to being in care and maintenance do not meet these specifications. The policy sets a clear timeline and we have chosen to meet it. We are targeting first production at Red Wing in January, 2027 at an initial reduced capacity and at a rate above prescribed thresholds. Two things make that possible. First, dewatering finished ahead of schedule, which gives us access to the underground workings now. Second, Red Wing went into care and maintenance with developed mining areas available for mining, underground infrastructure and processing plants already in place. The initial restart re-establishes mining in areas that were developed and mined before. It uses the existing plant. It does not depend on the outcome of the feasibility study. The restart program runs for three months starting in October. We will complete a full geotechnical audit of the historical mining areas before any mining resumes. Initial inspections have been encouraging, but the audit is the gates. We will re-equip those areas, refurbish the existing processing plant and mobilize the workforce. Three questions I would like to address directly. Are we bypassing the feasibility study? No. Stages 2 to 5 of the development milestones pathway are unchanged. The fully funded technical feasibility study program remains on track to conclude in early Q1 2027, with the resource definition and DFS work being expected to conclude in Q4 2027. Together they will define Red Wing as a large-scale operation. No decision on that larger development or capital for it is being taken ahead of the study. The initial restart is an additional work stream alongside the pathway, not a replacement for it. How is it funded? We are funding the restart from our cash flow resources. No new equity issuance is planned to fund the initial restart. Does it change the 2026 guidance? No. The initial restart is not expected to contribute materially to 2026 production and the revised guidance I have just given is how mine only. We will include Red Wing's expected contribution when we give the 2027 guidance. We have also strengthened the leadership and governance of the company in July. Spe Mchunu was appointed Chief Financial Officer in addition to the role of General Counsel. Spe has been closely involved in Namib and its predecessor companies since 2020 and played a central role in our business combination and NASDAQ listing. We also welcomed Wendy Luhabe to the board as Lead Independent Director. Wendy brings more than three decades of board leadership and significant experience in development finance and the deployment of capital into mining and industrial projects across Africa. As we look to the remainder of the year, our priorities are clear. First, successfully commission the expanded milling plant at Hau in mid-October and ramp it up to full capacity. Second, deliver our revised production guidance with a focus on increasing throughput while maintaining the cost discipline we have established across the operation. Third, execute Red Wing Restart program safely behind geotechnical audit for the first production in January, 2027, while the study work continues. And fourth, keep funding the plan in a sequence non-dilutive way. We have a producing mine whose capacity is about to increase by more than a third. We have a second mine returning to production earlier than planned and we have funded both in a non-dilutive manner. With that, I'll turn the call over to Speer to walk through our first half financial performance and outlook in greater detail. Speer. Thanks Tulani and hello everyone.
Siphesihle Mchunu
Chief Financial Officer & General Counsel
I will cover the following matters. Revenue and Production, Costs and Margins, Adjusted EBITDA along with the non-cash items in our reported results, Cash Flow, the Balance Sheet and Liquidity, and finally, I will then close with Guidance. All comparisons are within the 6 months ended June 30th, 2025. Revenue and Production Starting with Revenue Revenue for the first six months of 2026 was 50.8 million, an increase of 40% from the 36.4 million, the main driver being the gold price. Our average net realized price, which is stated after royalties, increased by 48% to $4,195 per ounce from the previous year of $2,827. As volumes were lower, we sold 11,357 ounces compared to the previous year's 12,226 ounces, a decrease of 7%. We produced 11,373 ounces compared with 12,741, a decrease of 11%. Tons milled were 233,000 against 236,000, broadly flat. Average grade was 1.7 grams per ton against 1.9 grams per ton. Recovery was 88% against 89%. Accordingly, the gold price added far more than volume took away. That matters for what comes next, because it shows the earnings leverage in this business to every additional ounce, and additional ounces are what the mill expansion is designed to deliver. I will move on to costs and margins. Production costs were 17.9 million, down 3% from the 18.5 million of the previous year, despite a 15% increase in power tariffs. As a percentage of revenue, production costs fell to 35% from 51%. Whereas royalties increased 70% to 3.1 million, reflecting higher revenue and the higher royalty rate that has applied since January 1, 2026, when the gold price exceeds $5,000 per ounce. C1 cash cost was 1,576 pounds. compared with 1,510. Our costs fell in absolute terms. However, a large part of the cost base is fixed and we sold fewer ounces. So the cost per ounce rose by 4%. Our all-in sustaining cost for the group was $3,078 per ounce compared to $2,462. That is above our guidance range and I want to explain what is in it. At Howe Mine alone, all in sustaining costs was $2,534 per ounce, compared with $2,265. The group figure also carries corporate overhead and the care and maintenance costs of Red Wing and Mazowe, all divided by Howe Mine's ounces. The increase over last year reflects fewer ounces, higher royalties and higher corporate costs, which I will come to. Sustaining capital was lower at $3.5 million against $4.4 million. Gross profit doubled to $27 million from $13.5 million, a gross margin of 53% compared with 37%. Administrative expenses. The administrative expenses were $13.7 million compared with $15.7 million. Both periods contain one-off items, so let me give you the underlying picture. The prior period included $10.2 million of transaction costs for our business combination and NASDAQ listings. The current period, however, includes 3.2 million of one-time costs, of which include 2.6 million in one-time restructuring costs. Excluding those, the underlying administrative expenses were approximately $10.5 million, compared with $5.5 million. They have roughly doubled. That increase is the cost of being a Nasdaq-listed company for a full period. Executive hires, directors and officers insurance, investor relations, legal and professional fees, and $1.2 million of non-cash share-based payments. The restructuring we completed in the first half is expected to reduce the run rate on an annualized basis. Thus, we expect second half administrative expenses to be below the first half. Non-cash SPAC costs. Two non-cash items affected reported earnings. Firstly, the earn-out liability. Under our business combination agreement, founding shareholders may receive additional shares on achieving operational milestones. The fair value of that liability increased from $9.9 million at December 31 to $18.4 million at June 30, a loss of $8.5 million through the income statement. Secondly, our warrants are classified as derivative liabilities and marked to market, which produced a further loss of $2.7 million. Together, that is $11.3 million. Both liabilities move primarily with our share price, which rose from $1.01 to $1.88. Investors should expect that at a higher share price It shall produce further non-cash losses on these lines and the lower share price will produce gains. Neither affects cash. The earn-out settles in shares and both are excluded from adjusted EBITDA. After these items, we reported an operating profit of 2.2 million compared with a loss of 7.4 million and a profit before tax of 1.3 million. After taxation expenses of 6.1 million, the loss for the period was 4.8 million or 9 cents per share compared with a loss of 11.9 million excluding the 11.3 million non-cash fair value losses. The business was profitable after tax. Adjusted EBITDA. Adjusted EBITDA was 19 million, an increase of 76% from 10.8 million. The adjusted EBITDA margin was 37% compared with 30%. A reconciliation to the reported losses included in our results release. The improvement came from a higher gold price and the resulting expansion in the gross profit, partly offset by higher corporate costs. Cash flow and capital investment Net cash generated from operating activities was 9.3 million, up 61% from 5.8 million. It's important to note that we reinvested all of it. Net cash used in investing activities was 10.7 million compared with 5.6 million, reflecting the mill expansion and production ramp up at Howe Mine and the restart program at Red Wing. Financing activities contributed 1.4 million, being 3 million of new borrowings, less 1.5 million of repayments and 0.1 million of lease payments. We opened the year with 1.9 million of cash and closed the half with 1.8 million. Balance sheet and liquidity. At June 30, we had 1.8 million of cash, current assets of 20.4 million and current liabilities of 63.3 million. That is a working capital deficit of 42.9 million, and I want to take you through what comprises of this number, because the headline overstates the near-term cash claims on the business. Of the 63.3 million, 7.5 million is the current portion of the earn-out liability, which settles in shares and not cash. Approximately 15.9 million sits in the Red Wing and Mazowe entities, which are on care and maintenance at this stage. Those obligations are ring fenced to those entities and are not secured on how mine. Trade and other payables across the group were 37.3 million, which is half a million lower than at year end. Current tax was at 8.9 million, excise tax 3.6 million, which is matched by an indemnification asset of the same amount and borrowings due within a year were 5.6 million. Our financial statements are prepared on a going concern basis. Management's cash flow projections through June 2027, including sensitivities on the cold price, indicate that the group will continue to generate positive cash flows and meet its obligations as they fall due. Those projections have been updated for the revised commissioning date and production guidance, and the conclusion is unchanged. Since June 30, liquidity has improved. We drew the 5 million ecobank facility in full in July. That facility has a 36-month term to May 2029 and is repaid in monthly installments from gold sales. On September 29, 2026, we announced an agreement with Bank ABC to increase our existing facility by $6.5 million from $6.7 million to $13.2 million. We were in compliance with all debt covenants at June 30. We also had $3.8 million of purchase commitments for property, plant and equipment at that date. We can confirm that at this stage we are in compliance with all covenants under the respective finance documents. Guidance. Let me close with our guidance. As Tulani has said, we are revising our full year 2026 production guidance to between 26,500 to 27,000 ounces, down from 28,000 to 31,500. The revised range assumes the expanded mill is commissioned in mid-October and ramps up over six to eight weeks. The top of the range assumes a quicker ramp up and grades toward 1.9 grams per ton. The bottom assumes a slower ramp at first half grades. On C1 cash costs, we are maintaining our range of $1,400 to $1,650 per ounce. First half C1 was $1,576 and we expected to improve in the second half as volumes rise. On group oil and sustaining costs, our range was $2,400 to $2,700 per ounce and the first half was $3,078. With fewer ounces for the year than we originally planned, we now expect full-year group all-in sustaining costs of $2,650 to $2,850 per ounce. We expect the second half to be materially lower than the first as the restructuring savings come through and more ounces absorb the fixed costs. We expect to provide 2027 production and cost guidance, including Red Wing's anticipated contribution in the first quarter of 2027. In summary, revenue is up 40%, therefore gross profit doubled. Adjusted EBITDA is up 76% and operating cash flow is up 61% on fewer ounces. While production was below plan, and we have reset guidance to reflect that in the timing of the mill, costs are lower in absolute terms at the mine and higher at corporate level where we have already acted. Furthermore, we have funded the next steps with bank debt. Our financial priorities remain unchanged. Grow production, manage costs, generate cash, and invest with discipline without diluting the shareholders who own the company today. With that, I will turn the call over to Jonathan for Q&A.
Analyst
Analyst
What is the status of Mzoe in relation to the policy framework from the Zimbabwe Ministry of Mines?
Tulani Sikwila
Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
We are presently working towards ensuring the mine meets the necessary specifications, as outlined in the Ministry Directive, which is consistent with our approach with Red Wing.
Analyst
Analyst
Is the outstanding amount of the BMC purchase price solely an obligation of Mr. Kumalo and the Southern Sullivan Trust as guarantors, with no payment obligation for Namib Minerals, Greenstone or BMC? That is correct. There are no payment obligations for Namib Minerals Greenstone or BMZ. Is the previously discussed aggregate development capital range of approximately 300 to 400 million US dollars for Red Wing and Mzoe still relevant and should investors view this as capital deployed progressively over several stages rather than a single upfront requirement?
Tulani Sikwila
Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
That range was an early aggregate indication for both assets which always required validation through a feasibility study. The capital will therefore be confirmed through the completion of the DFS. On the second part of your question, Yes, this was never a single upfront requirement and the way we are developing Red Wing now shows that. The initial restart uses existing development areas and existing plants and is funded through internally generated cash flows. The capital for the larger scale operation will be defined by the feasibility work. No decisions on that capital is being taken ahead of the study. Each stage has its own decision point and has its own funding. And our approach so far has been bank debt rather than equity.