NI NiSource Inc.

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NiSource Inc. Q3 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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Conference Operator
Operator
Hello everyone. Thank you for joining us and welcome to the third quarter 2026 NYSource Earnings Conference call. After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star one again. I will now hand the conference over to Durgesh Chopra, VP of Investor Relations. Durgesh, please go ahead.
Durgesh Chopra
Vice President, Investor Relations
Thank you. Good morning and welcome to NiceSource's third quarter 2026 investor call. Joining me today are President and Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Yates, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Shawn Anderson, Executive Vice President of Technology, Customer, and Chief Commercial Officer Michael Luhrs, and Executive Vice President and Group President of NiceSource Utilities, Melody Birmingham. Today, we'll review NYSource's financial performance for the third quarter, share updates on operations, strategy, and growth drivers, and walk to our extended long-term plan. Following our prepared remarks, we'll open the call for your questions. Slides for today's call are available in the investor relations section of our website. Some statements made during this presentation will be forward-looking. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the statements. Information concerning such risks and uncertainties is included in the risk factors and MDA sections of our periodic SEC filings. Additionally, some statements made on this call relate to non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to the supplemental slides segment information, and full financial schedules for information on the most directly comparable gap measures and a reconciliation of these measures. With that, I'll turn the call over to Lloyd.
Lloyd Yates
President and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Durgesh, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin on slide three. At NYSource, our strategy remains grounded in delivering safe, reliable, and affordable energy while creating long-term value for our customers communities, and shareholders. This quarter, we are extending our long-term plan through 2033, providing a seven-year view of the investment opportunity we see across our footprint and the growth it supports. That plan rests on two complementary platforms, our base business, six regulated utilities situated across multiple states, delivering natural gas and electricity to 4 million customers, Our growing Genco business has differentiated growth, delivering power and capacity to large load customers, supporting national security through data center operations. The complimentary nature of these segments provides stability, diversification, and long runway of needed investment that have supported a consistent record of delivering on our commitments. With our recently announced Microsoft Agreement, Janko now serves three of the largest technology companies in the world and brings our signed agreements to an expected $1.75 billion in savings to existing NIPSCO electric customers. Turning to slide four, we continue to advance our regulatory priorities in support of the financial plan while AI-enabled tools and Project Apollo are strengthening efficiency and productivity across the business. Today, we reported third quarter consolidated adjusted EPS of 27 cents, bringing our year-to-date consolidated adjusted EPS to $1.49. This performance keeps us firmly on track to deliver on our full-year growth commitment. As a result of our progress, we are narrowing our 2026 Consolidated Adjusted EPS Guidance to the upper half of our previously stated range of 2002 cents to 2007 cents. We are also initiating 2027 Consolidated Adjusted EPS Guidance of 2022 cents to 2030 cents and expanding our growth commitments through 2033. supported by an increased consolidated adjusted EPS compound annual growth rate of 10 to 11%. Shawn will take you through our growth drivers, financing plan, the $40 billion capital plan, and the associated financial commitments later in the call. Moving to slide five, safety remains our top priority and the foundation of how we serve our customers. This quarter tested our system, our people, and our communities. On August 11th, a derecho moved across northern Indiana with wind speeds of up to 110 miles per hour, one of the most severe weather events in NIPSCO's history. Additional rounds of severe weather in the following days brought even more significant damage to our system. The weather pattern evolved rapidly, and while we were prepared for what was forecasted, The weather severely accelerated in the hours before the storm crossed into our system. We activated our incident command structure, suspended non-critical work, and placed contractor resources on standby. Within 24 hours, more than 1,700 external personnel had joined the internal teams, including Columbia Gas employees, contractor partners, and mutual assistance crews from across the region. By August 25th, We have completed our broad restoration effort without injury, reflecting our ongoing focus on strengthening our safety culture, discipline execution, and consistent application of critical safety behaviors. I want to thank our employees, mutual assistance partners, and the local officials and first responders who worked alongside us. We have an improvement mindset and are focused on learning from this event. We are completing a full internal after-action review, which we expect to finish by late November, and we are hiring a third-party expert to conduct an independent review of our response over the next several months. Meanwhile, we are participating fully in the reviews by the IURC underway in Indiana. NIPSCO will learn from this event and act on the lessons learned as we look to build a stronger and more resilient system for our community. Turning to slide six in our regulatory agenda, I'll start with Ohio. Building on the tracker approvals we received this year, Columbia Gas of Ohio filed its first three-year forward-looking rate case under the framework which took effect earlier this year through Senate Bill 103. This forward-looking structure reduces regulatory lag and better aligns recovery with the continued safety and modernization investments for our communities. Our Kentucky and Virginia rate cases remain on schedule and continue to progress constructively with new rates in Virginia effective October 12, subject to refund, and decisions expected in both cases in the first half of 2027. In September, NIPSCO received a fourth federal order requiring continued operation of the Schaefer coal units. We continue to comply, and we are pursuing recovery of compliance costs through the FERC-approved MISO Tariff Schedule, having submitted Section 205 filings for each order period. We are evaluating a potential extension of the unit's operations through our Integrated Resource Plan. NIPSCO's IRP will also evaluate near-term capacity needs, evolving MISO accreditation rules, and changes in the federal tax credit eligibility. Later this month, we held our second public stakeholder meeting, focused on the 20-year low forecast, updated seasonal peak methodology, resource adequacy needs, existing unit assumptions, and stakeholder portfolio concepts. Our financial plan contains a point of view on the necessary generation requirements to support expected low growth while maintaining flexibility as the IRP evaluates the appropriate resource mix and timing of those investments. We will continue to share further updates with you through our ongoing stakeholder process. Affordability remains a key focus across our jurisdiction, and we continue to engage constructively with regulators and policymakers. In Pennsylvania, the Commission's Rate Making Working Group is evaluating ROE methodologies Ray Case Processes, and the D6 Framework as part of the state's broader affordability dialogue. We are participating constructively and our financial plan retains flexibility to navigate these processes while continuing to invest for our customers. We are also engaged in Indiana through the IURC's broader affordability review, including proceedings on authorized returns and tracker mechanisms. We will remain actively engaged as those proceedings advance, focused on maintaining affordability while enabling investment necessary to serve Indiana's growing economy. We are already seeing meaningful progress. The IURC's 2026 residential bill survey shows our electric customers' bills declining year over year, and our data center agreements are expected to deliver meaningful savings to NPSCO electric customers. Together, These reinforce our view that Indiana remains a great place to do business with significant investment potential. And more broadly, that economic development can be a driver of savings and support affordability solutions across our footprint. Speaking of savings, our new partnership with Microsoft reflects our third Genco customer and fifth agreement we've reached in just over one year. This also represents the latest agreement served through the pool strategy we introduced in May. We're proud of the work we are doing to bring meaningful savings to our customers in Northern Indiana. We have brought ingenuity and commercial acumen to a problem many states and regions in this country have not been able to figure out. This has unlocked a truly unique win-win-win for existing retail customers and local communities New customers advance the imperative for the U.S. to keep up with data center technology to protect our country and our shareholders. Shown on slide seven, our signed agreements are now expected to deliver approximately $1.75 billion in savings to existing NISCO electric customers, up from $1.4 billion last quarter. at full ramp that equates to approximately $140 per year for an average residential customer. And we expect bill credits to begin as early as January pending IURC approval. Our data center customers pay the cost associated with their load while their use of the existing system lowers bills for our residential customers. Consistent with the objectives set up for GENCO, this partnership seeks to enable affordability for existing customers support economic development in Northern Indiana, enhance the shareholder value, and is structured with prudent risk management. I'll now turn the call over to Michael to walk through this agreement in more detail.
Michael Luhrs
Executive Vice President of Technology, Customer, and Chief Commercial Officer
Thanks, Lloyd. I'll begin on slide eight. Under the agreement, Microsoft is taking electric service under a 20-year term starting in 2028. The Genco-owned pool portfolio will be increased by approximately 1,100 megawatts including roughly 500 megawatts of combustion turbines and 600 megawatts of battery storage. We expect to file the special contract with the IURC by year end and are seeking an order in the first half of 2027 consistent with the expedited 90 to 120 day review framework established for our data center agreements. Like our other GENCO agreements, it is structured to provide a return on and of our investment over the contract term. supported by minimum capacity charges, pass-through treatment of variable costs, and termination protections. Slide 9 highlights the significant momentum we have built in just over a year. We begin with the GENCO declination order, and our initial customer agreement in September 2025 has grown to five agreements across three signed customers, supported by meaningful progress across contract approvals, regulatory filings, Zoning, Construction, and Initial Energization. That commitment is already translating to results. Following the signing of Alphabet in April, we've completed construction of transmission infrastructure ahead of schedule and begin billing this summer. Across these projects, we have been proactive in securing long lead equipment, diversifying vendors, and establishing EPC arrangements including our partnership with Quanah and Zachary to reduce execution risk. Our teams remain focused on delivering these projects safely, on schedule, and alongside our ongoing operations. Construction continues on Amazon's site, the largest infrastructure project in our company's history, including a 345 kV delivery substation and associated transmission infrastructure, which is expected in service next year. As civil site work progresses and permitting and regulatory approvals advance, we remain on track for the expected energization and full ramp across our signed projects. Our progress to date demonstrates we are delivering on our signed agreements, advancing approximately five gigawatts of capacity, and as slide 10 highlights, we are targeting up to four gigawatts of potential additional load, which our model is well positioned to facilitate. Demand from large load customers remains robust. Customers are choosing Northern Indiana and Genco because we can offer credible speed to power, transmission access, land, water, fiber, skilled labor, and a supportive business and regulatory framework built for both speed and customer protection. We continue to see market dynamics that could expand opportunities beyond our nine gigawatt pipeline, and we will share updates to reflect those opportunities in the future as we evaluate execution pathways to integrate that growth.
Shawn Anderson
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
With that, I will turn the call over to Shawn. Thank you, Michael, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin on slides 11 and 12. Third quarter consolidated adjusted EPS was 27 cents. compared with 19 cents in the same period last year, bringing our year-to-date consolidated adjusted EPS to $1.49. Our strong financial quarter was driven by disciplined cost management and continued outperformance of customer demand for natural gas and electricity across our operating companies. Usage and customer accounts were up year-over-year at NIPSCO, Columbia Gas of Ohio, Virginia, and Kentucky, all creating tailwinds for our financial results. We reached a significant agreement on property tax savings in Ohio, which will pass through lower property tax rates over time. O&M was higher year over year due to the costs associated with responding to storm activity. Otherwise, all other activities were flat year over year. These drivers give us confidence as we step into the fourth quarter. We expect earnings to deliver the upper half of our guidance range, and many of the principal drivers are already in place, including step two rates at Nipsco Electric, our Virginia rate case, approved tracker updates, the ramp of alphabet load, and continued progress on more than $40 million of cost optimization initiatives we identified earlier this year. Turning to slide 13, We are excited to extend our capital plan through 2033. Our new seven-year plan totals $40 billion, including $32 billion of base plan investments and approximately $8 billion of Genco investments to support data center customers. The extended plan reflects the depth of investment required to support a safe and reliable system. Gas system modernization and safety programs, Electric Reliability and Resiliency, Generation to meet our customers' capacity needs, and Infrastructure to support economic growth across our territories. The plan remains diversified across our gas and electric businesses throughout six states and in our growing business segment, Genco. Our new plan improves our cash efficiency by converting over 90% of our investments Thank you. Thank you. and up to four gigawatts of pipeline in GENCO, which are not included in our guidance, and we will move into the base plan when projects meet our threshold. Turning to slide 14, we are narrowing our 2026 consolidated adjusted EPS guidance to the upper half of our stated range. Today we initiated our 2027 adjusted EPS guidance at $2.22 to $2.30 per share, which implies a double-digit year-over-year growth next year at each midpoint, including five to nine cents of contribution from our Genco business segment. The 2027 guidance becomes the new foundation for our long-term earnings potential. which we expect to grow 10 to 11 percent on a compounded annual growth rate basis off of our expected expectations for 2027 through 2033. Additionally, we expect multiple years of double-digit growth through the planning horizon as the Genco segment strengthens from development to serving its customers. We are also extending our base plan to achieve 6% to 8% annual EPS growth through 2033. We see continued stability in our core business operations, which have benefited from diversification and demand for natural gas and electricity throughout the regions we serve. As we move toward year-end reporting, GENCO will be disclosed as a separate segment. Consistent with our current reporting, We will provide operating income for the segment. To further support transparency and for your modeling efforts, we are also providing indicative GENCO EPS contribution targets for the present year in 2027, 2030, and in 2033. We believe our plan remains highly executable. Incorporates modest customer growth, conservative financing assumptions, and a continued commitment to flat O&M. We've worked hard to focus on ways to drive customer bill impacts down. Our new plan has decreased our view on bill increases by over 100 basis points, down to less than 4% average annual residential customer bill increases from 2027 through 2031 on the investment base of 9 to 10%. Finally, we continue our commitment to a strong balance sheet by maintaining FFO to debt of 14 to 16% in all years of our plan. We expect our balance sheet strength to grow over time as GENCO transitions from capital deployment to meaningful cash generation over the plan horizon. Moving to slide 15, we think it's important to view this opportunity through a longer term lens. Our base business remains a strong foundation of the plan, expected to deliver durable 6% to 8% annual base plan adjusted EPS growth. Genco builds on top of that foundation, contributing an incremental layer of earnings growth as these investments are placed into service and customers ramp to full demand. Today, we are increasing Genco's expected EPS contribution, reflecting continued efficiencies in our existing Amazon and Alphabet agreements, along with the addition of Microsoft. As a result, we now expect Genco to contribute 32 to 40 cents in 2030 and growing to 52 to 68 cents by 2033. Together, our businesses support our consolidated 10 to 11% adjusted EPS CAGR guidance through 2033 and demonstrates the compounding value of executing across both the base plan and Genco over the full planning horizon. Factors such as the timing of regulatory approvals, construction, financing costs, and the pace of customer load ramps will determine where we land within that range. Our pipeline of strategic negotiations and developing opportunities provides the opportunity to exceed the top end. Slide 16 details our financing plan. In August, we issued $750 million of junior subordinated notes, further strengthening our balance sheet and supporting the capital plan. Looking forward, we expect to issue $400 to $600 million of maintenance equity annually in the near term with those needs stepping down as we move through the plan to minimal levels starting in 2032 as the business increasingly self-funds its growth. We maintain flexibility to fund the plan efficiently through a balanced mix of debt, hybrid securities, and maintenance equity while preserving our investment grade credit profile and supporting our 14 to 16% FFO to debt commitment. We will also be opportunistic, evolving all aspects of capital markets to fund our growth strategies. What will guide our decision is maximizing long-term value for our shareholders while retaining the strategic flexibility to capture customer, community, and shareholder benefits. And lastly, slide 17. This quarter, we extended our plan to a seven-year view, narrowed our 2026 consolidated adjusted EPS outlook to the upper half of our range, initiated 2027 consolidated adjusted EPS guidance and executed our fifth Genco agreement by adding a third Genco customer, which increased customer savings to $1.75 billion. At the same time, we responded to one of the most severe storms in NIPSCO's history and are applying what we learned to strengthen our system. Taken together, these milestones demonstrate the resiliency and the ingenuity of our teams, making progress across all fronts of our business and positioning for sustained growth and customer value over the long term. We remain confident in our ability to deliver on our commitments. Regulatory execution provides visibility into earnings and cash flow. Our capital plan is diversified across businesses and jurisdictions. Our operational initiatives continue to support productivity and cost discipline, and Genco contracts deliver stable, fixed charges for our services while adding a meaningful layer of growth and lower bills by approximately $140 per year at full ramp for existing electric customers. NYSource offers investors a diversified, regulated utility. with the opportunity to invest in programmatic gas infrastructure and long-term energy infrastructure for a fully integrated electric business. The investment thesis extends to access the unprecedented energy development and power demand this country requires to support new data center operations and robust economic development. The complementary nature of these business segments offers a value proposition differentiated in the marketplace today. and finally, we continue to build upon our track record of execution and delivering on the commitments we make. Operator, please open the line for questions.
Conference Operator
Operator
We will now begin the question and answer session. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow up. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star one again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Shar Perez with Wells Fargo. Shar, your line is now open.
Shar Pourreza
Analyst, Wells Fargo
Hey, guys. Good morning.
Lloyd Yates
President and Chief Executive Officer
Morning, Shar. Can you hear me?
Shar Pourreza
Analyst, Wells Fargo
Morning, Lloyd. Just firstly, the disclosures around Microsoft are a meaningful addition to the quarter, right? So can you just maybe comment on the size of the site and how we should think about the longer-term opportunity with Microsoft from here? So does the agreement announced today, does that largely capture the opportunity you see with them, or should we view this as potentially the first phase of something larger? Thanks.
Lloyd Yates
President and Chief Executive Officer
I mean, what I'll say to you, Char, is that we can't comment on any of our customer sites or the size of those sites. What I can tell you, though, is we're actively engaged with all three of our major customers and the customers that we have in the queue. And we have a lot of demand in that queue with those customers, and we're really confident in our ability to execute on the pipeline that we have. Okay, got it.
Shar Pourreza
Analyst, Wells Fargo
And then just look, obviously, there's been a lot of progress on the JANCO. It's turning to accrete value. I guess, as we move through the remaining proceedings in Indiana, I guess, how are you thinking about the key regulatory risks from here? Has anything changed in terms of the risk profile as we move further through the process?
Lloyd Yates
President and Chief Executive Officer
We're still optimistic and confident in Indiana. We think it's a great place to do business. It presents a significant long-term growth opportunity for NYSource. If you think about the GenCo and economic development, economic development and affordability are among the administration's top priorities. And the GenCo checks all of those boxes. So, you know, we're in Indiana. We are actively engaged with all the stakeholders. Our goal is to enhance our value proposition for our customers, our large load customers, and our shareholders.
Shar Pourreza
Analyst, Wells Fargo
Got it. Perfect. Thanks, Lloyd. We'll see you in a couple weeks. In a couple weeks.
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Julianne DeMola-Smith with Jefferies. Julianne, your line is now open.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Analyst, Jefferies
Hey, good morning, team. Thank you guys very much. Appreciate it.
Lloyd Yates
President and Chief Executive Officer
Morning.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Analyst, Jefferies
Morning. Hey, just wanted to follow up. I'll take another crack at this if I can. Without identifying customers' internal plans, the important caveat, is the current infrastructure and resource plan being designed to preserve the ability to serve additional Microsoft load? How do you think about the physical requirements, whether that's generation or transmission to upsize from here? I'm just trying to zero in on the initial 7, 8, 8. and what the underlying generation plan that underpins it could be and or if you're going to plan ahead a little bit, if you will. And then maybe a sub-question on that would be, you have an initial toll on the battery. How do you think about ownership on that front over time as well?
Michael Luhrs
Executive Vice President of Technology, Customer, and Chief Commercial Officer
So what I would say, that sort of back up to more of the global perspective first, which is Indiana is a positive area of the country by which to facilitate both the generation growth and the serving of data center customers. As mentioned in the foreword of it, like relative to land, fiber, etc., When we plan our assets, we plan our assets for the ability to, from that pool portfolio, serve the totality of our customers within it. We don't overbuild on that or overextend on that. But at the same time, we do plan for the potentials, the risk. It's one of the ways we're able to mitigate overall challenges with the portfolio and make sure that we meet our commitments in serving our customers. What I would say is you've seen us grow with Amazon and you've seen us sign two additional agreements with Amazon, which have both accelerated and incremented that capacity. We are focused on being able to continue to grow with our existing customer base. and with those high credit worthy counterparties, good strong counterparties, we will continue to add them to the portfolio as we go forward. So overall, we feel like we're in a really good position. We feel we have the capability both from transmission and what we're looking at with generation capability to be able to both grow with our existing customers and expand our pipeline. As for the tolling agreement, go ahead and hit that one. We look at the tolling agreement. We use a variety of mechanisms to balance everything across the portfolio, both from all the financial parameters, what we want to do overall with our long-term strategy. So as we have done with batteries, some of them we own, some of them we toll, some of them we have, when we continue to do these arrangements, we're not opposed to owning, but at the same time, as we continue to grow this portfolio, we're going to try to make sure we take a balanced perspective that allows us to be able to step in the opportunities at the right time and also be able to adapt to technology changes as we go forward.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Analyst, Jefferies
Yeah, absolutely. And then if you can just elaborate a little bit further as you think about the funding plan a little bit. It seems like the additional incremental payments here being made, whether it's Microsoft or otherwise, on the GenCo is what's driving the additional CFO when it's the 55 to 60% to fund the plan. The subtlety of incremental cash in the near term.
Shawn Anderson
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, you're starting from a low position on customer ramp rate, which strengthens through the period of the plan. If you recall, we'll have customers fully ramped in 2030, 2031, 2032, which is strengthening cash from operations in the Genco segment. Additionally, the base business continues to produce strong cash flows. As a reminder, the starting point of 16.1 at the end of 2025 on an FFO to debt basis continues. just demonstrates the strong cash flows and capitalization the base business was beginning at. And that just maintains itself through the planned horizon.
Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Analyst, Jefferies
All right, I'll leave it there. Lots of further questions. Good luck, guys. Nicely done.
Lloyd Yates
President and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you.
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Nicholas Campanella with Barclays. Nicholas, your line is now open.
Nicholas Campanella
Analyst, Barclays
Hey, good morning. Thanks for the time. so morning yeah just wanted to ask like the uh you used to talk about doing the strategic review of genco just in terms of being able to execute beyond the nine gigawatts and i can you give an update on how that's going and um just you've made pretty steady progress here does that review need to happen before you execute on the remaining four gigs or could we see that a little sooner and then i'll ask a follow-up thanks
Lloyd Yates
President and Chief Executive Officer
So I'll answer the second question first. That review does not need to happen before we execute on the next four gigawatts. We show on the chart, the slides you have, we have two gigawatts now in strategic negotiations, and then two more behind that. We are in the midst of studying to upsize that. We know we have the ability to upsize the size of the GENCO. I mean, you will roll that out sometime in 2027. That study is ongoing and we're optimistic and you'll see that sometime next year.
Nicholas Campanella
Analyst, Barclays
That's great. That's great. And then in your prepared remarks, Lloyd, on the Indiana storms, you know, we have seen some legislative hearings. There's been some discussions about the need to kind of increase resiliency, reliability. I'm just wondering how that informs your capital plan, if there can be kind of a wider resiliency package put forward to the state. and when and what that would look like. Thanks.
Lloyd Yates
President and Chief Executive Officer
So we are actively and we will actively participate in the IURC hearings. We understand that long outages are not good for our customers and investment to harden the system, to make it a lot more resilient, we're in the midst of studying that. As we go through this process, we're going to make it clear what kind of capital investment that that takes and we'll roll that out to the regulators and legislators as necessary. But I think that is ongoing and I think you'll have an understanding of what the investment opportunity looks like in the near future.
Nicholas Campanella
Analyst, Barclays
Thanks a lot.
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Ross Fowler with Bank of America. Ross, your line is now open.
Ross Fowler
Analyst, Bank of America
Morning, Lloyd. Morning, Shawn. How are you?
Lloyd Yates
President and Chief Executive Officer
Morning.
Ross Fowler
Analyst, Bank of America
Just a real quick one first. I think if I've got it right, Amazon CCGT is shifting out to 2030. Kind of what drove that? How will you serve Amazon kind of in the meantime before that enters service? And sort of who bears the incremental cost of that as we shift this out in time?
Michael Luhrs
Executive Vice President of Technology, Customer, and Chief Commercial Officer
Michael? So what I would say on that is, first of all, there's two CCGTs. They're not both shifting out to 2030. One has changed with what we're doing. But remember, we've signed incremental agreements, acceleration agreements. We have batteries that are coming online ahead of that. We have a pool portfolio. So this fits into the whole capability of really making sure that we're optimizing the assets. to be able to serve the customers in the most beneficial and cost-accretive way, and quite frankly, de-risking the construction and making sure that that construction is done in a way that has the highest probability of execution. The moves we made with the CCGTs do that for Amazon. They help to ensure higher confidence of execution and modifying those in a way. But it's not a delay in schedule. It's actually an optimization. And in fact, some of them are actually, I would say, are accelerated with it that help produce for that acceleration that we're doing. So when you look at it overall, think about it in what we're doing in the totality, not on an individual asset.
Shawn Anderson
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Just to add real quick, Ross, I would note that the capital requirements were not changed in our disclosure, so there's no change necessarily. As Michael indicated, it's really streamlining the construction process for best execution, and the pricing signals still are set off of the ramp rate for the customer.
Ross Fowler
Analyst, Bank of America
Yeah, and then maybe following on Julian's question a little bit on the cash flow flywheel, It looks like if I sort of look at your funding slide and then look at the percentages against the old capital plan, the new capital plan, right? And I know this is all backwardated, but if I just quickly annualize it in my head, CapEx really isn't changing on a sort of annualized basis, but I think the important point maybe is that funding has. I mean, debt seems like it's on average $600 million less annually. Equity is about $100 million lower. and I know that cash is going to be front-end loaded, right? So, but as I think about the go-forward plan, Shawn, as you add more to Genco, there's got to be capacity to just increase the backward-headed edge of that CapEx in the plan as you go forward. The more Genco should just mean more, not only Genco CapEx, but ability to fund regulated CapEx with the same balance sheet and sort of, you know, maybe even lower funding requirements, which It was kind of a perfect trifecta of how to do this. Am I thinking about that correctly?
Shawn Anderson
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, you absolutely are. I mean, again, you start from about the position of 16.1 at the end of 2025 with minimal capital expenditures associated with Genco. That really is producing intrinsic cash flow power of the base business, which is obviously above our guided range. So that business and the strength and the financial profile of the base business, we believe, has not changed. It's very consistent through the plan horizon. Therefore, it has the ability to operate with minimal to no equity as it grows throughout its rate-based deployment, strengthened by that 90% recovery inside 12 months. That helps intrinsically stabilize the operating cash flow and minimize the use of equity for the base business. Meanwhile, one of the strengths of the Genco model is the ability to shape the cash flow design through its rate structure in a manner which also balances financing requirements. That flexibility helps reduce the equivalent of regulatory lag and allows for optimization and balance of cash inflow with cash outflow based on the construction cycle and what's necessary to meet the customer needs. again also additionally achieving a greater than regulated rate of return enables that EPS to keep up with the rate of spend on the equivalent investment and that's producing FFO so again self-sustaining itself from a funding point and then finally to Michael's point he just made having the flexibility to procure the most efficient capacity attribute available while Earning an appropriate risk-adjusted return provides that flexibility to best serve customers. That's going to matter based on the incremental, in this case, four gigawatts that Lloyd just alluded to and what technology solution will be necessary for us to serve those customers.
Ross Fowler
Analyst, Bank of America
Raising capex and lowering equity is a good thing to do. Thanks, Shawn.
Conference Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Eli Josten with JPMorgan. Eli, your line is now open.
Eli Josten
Analyst, JPMorgan
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Maybe just starting with the customer savings. How should we think about the regulatory positioning and playbook in Indiana? Obviously, I have to think about this post-election, but can you just kind of frame how we should think about your strategy going forward, particularly with the savings in mind? Thanks.
Lloyd Yates
President and Chief Executive Officer
Again, as I mentioned earlier, one of the largest benefits of the Genco is it addresses the affordability issue. With this last signing of Microsoft, we start to roll back $1.7 billion to our customers, and it'll grow as the Genco grows. That customer credit should show up in the customer's bill. I think it was called My Data Center Credit pending IURC approval sometime either at the end of this fourth quarter or sometime early next year. And the customers will see that number ramp up as the customers ramp up.
Michael Luhrs
Executive Vice President of Technology, Customer, and Chief Commercial Officer
And just to add to that real quick, we really wanted Genco, and we feel like those proof points exist now, to demonstrate for both our communities and our stakeholders The value it can provide in growing the communities, as Lloyd said, providing 1.75 billion back to customers. But also remember, this is isolated. Like what we're doing for the electric utility, it is isolated from the rate base. So they do not bear that risk with us building these assets. So we feel like, you know, it's been a very positive evolution and it's proven out now and that we're able to demonstrate that with all the stakeholders and carry that messaging through, which is beneficial to our activities in Indiana.
Shawn Anderson
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Great.
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Steve Slashnan with Wolf Research. Steve, your line is now open.
Steve Fleishman
Analyst, Wolfe Research
Thank you. So just looking at slide 27 on the, it looks like he added the two new combustion turbines in there. And the $2.3 billion cost relative to the, I guess, 408 megawatts seems like a pretty high number. Could you maybe just talk about, you know, what, excuse me, what, is that more than just the generation? Is there other structural equipment, transmission, other things in there?
Lloyd Yates
President and Chief Executive Officer
All the transmission and infrastructure is also in that costee. So it's not just the two F-frame CTs, but all the transmission and infrastructure and, well, some equipment associated with that transaction.
Steve Fleishman
Analyst, Wolfe Research
Okay. Is there a way to get the number just for the generation?
Lloyd Yates
President and Chief Executive Officer
No.
Steve Fleishman
Analyst, Wolfe Research
Okay. We haven't disclosed that. Yeah, second question, just the Janko CapEx is very, I mean, it looks like the vast majority of the CapEx is pretty much the first two years. And is that kind of, I mean, it fits the model of what you talk about, Shawn, and just is that any kind of front-ending, though, of what you had done before, or is that consistent?
Shawn Anderson
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
There's no material change in the previous executed. There's a few things that'll move year by year, and certainly it'll give us some tailwinds into the plan. Should we deploy CapEx a little later, there'll be less financing cost. Things like that could move us around within the range, but nothing material is different than what we were previously planning to execute.
Steve Fleishman
Analyst, Wolfe Research
Okay. And then lastly, just on the base business, just any kind of high-level messaging on Where you're spending the capital, both states and in terms of like what, you know, what main areas and, you know, you've taken that out to 33 now already, just like how long term do you think that space CapEx plan could be?
Shawn Anderson
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Well, it's fairly long dated as we've discussed a lot. 60,000 miles of pipeline with an annual replacement rate of call it 400 annually. So there's a lot of pipeline to maintain. We're starting to enter into the first generation plastic replacement program. That's our largest vintage of pipeline. So there'll be a lot of pipeline modernization as a staple of our plan. Additionally, in this particular moment, we have a fair amount of PHMSA compliance CAPEX that we'll be executing in Ohio and likely longer term in Indiana on those gas systems. Both will require that maintenance by the middle of the next decade to maintain compliance with rules and regulations there. We still maintain a generation short position. It's moved a little bit further into the early part of next year. Thank you for joining us.
Lloyd Yates
President and Chief Executive Officer
And just to add to Shawn's point, there's still a possibility of some, on the electric side of the business, some storm-hardening resiliency investment that we haven't quantified yet. And we believe we have a long tail of investment in the base business, and it's really strong. Thank you.
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Gabe Marine with MISO. Gabe, your line is now open.
Gabe Moreen
Analyst, Mizuho
Good morning, everyone. Can I ask about the 40 to 60 cents ultimately coming from Genco? Can you just talk about the drivers behind that range, whether it's capital spent, customer demand, and then I guess it's a little presumptuous to ask, but expectations for what happens thereafter? Does it just stay in that range based on the existing three contracts?
Shawn Anderson
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, just one quick edit, Gabe. The 40 to 60s moved to 52 to 68, so the new range for 2033 is 52 to 68 cents. That's indicative of the full ramp rate for all customers that we serve at Genco. That'd be the first year of full ramp rate. The predominant driver for that then is the revenue collected off of the capacity fees for each of the customers. That is a period of time when we still have a fair amount of financing costs that we're absorbing as we will still be paying down some of the construction and development costs. I would expect the earnings per share contribution to get even more efficient. or Grow as you pay down that borrowing cost. So I would expect a step change as you get closer to the middle of next decade outside our plan horizon, all else equal.
Gabe Moreen
Analyst, Mizuho
Thanks, Shawn. And then maybe if I could stay on kind of financing assumptions and laying out a seven-year look for the base plan and GENCO. Can you talk about, I guess, what your assumptions are behind rates, maybe O&M? Have those changed since the last update given, I guess, the forward curve on interest rates were there any offsets?
Shawn Anderson
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, we've never really projected in our plan material rate cuts in any respect. So while we prefer lower rates, that's better for our customers and certainly given a financing need that we have, it's better for the efficiency of our plan. We're not surprised by the environment we're in and our plan did not need to modify as a result of the dislocation we've seen over the last call it two months. We also have some opportunity across the curve to select different tenor and to be opportunistic, both on the debt and the equity side. So we'll manage through this. We've got a really great treasurer who can be adaptable, but we'll wait for the environment to be right for us to lock in long-term commitments that can be accretive to our plan.
Gabe Moreen
Analyst, Mizuho
Thanks, Shawn.
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Nick Amacucci with Evercore. Nick, your line is now open.
Nick Amicucci
Analyst, Evercore ISI
Hey, guys. I think you may have touched upon it. I just want to try and reconcile the slide 27, just the $9.9 billion versus the $8 billion within the plan for Genco. Just trying to frame that up and kind of rectify that.
Shawn Anderson
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, that's a quick one. The only difference is the time horizon. Pre-existing 2025 and 2026 investment would be included in the 10. The $8 billion is really referencing the 27 through 33 period.
Nick Amicucci
Analyst, Evercore ISI
Got it. All right. That makes sense.
Shawn Anderson
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
And then. Sorry, 27 through 31.
Nick Amicucci
Analyst, Evercore ISI
Got it. Okay. And then if we're staying on that, just on that slide, if we're talking, just if we can reconcile to just the 3.9 gigawatts of signed customer demand with the 4.9 of supply resources. Does that kind of consider the accreditation that's being given to the batteries and stuff, or is there something else within that?
Michael Luhrs
Executive Vice President of Technology, Customer, and Chief Commercial Officer
No, you got it. I mean, when we look at a difference between what we talk about a generation capacity and load accounts for all the factors related to accreditation, you know, the different generation types, you know, loss of load, all those different factors that are required, balance of plan, et cetera.
Nick Amicucci
Analyst, Evercore ISI
Got it. Thanks, guys.
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Sophie Karp with eBank. Sophie, your line is now open.
Sophie Karp
Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets
Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. Good morning. First, on the 9 gigawatts, so I guess just maybe a housekeeping question. You guys had 9 gigawatts of pipeline before you announced a recent deal that's still 9 gigawatts. Was this 9 gigawatts like backfilled, or how should we think about this?
Michael Luhrs
Executive Vice President of Technology, Customer, and Chief Commercial Officer
Michael? When you look at the 9 gigawatts right now, the 5 gigawatts is assigned capacity. The 2 gigawatts we've mentioned are in strategic negotiations now, and then we've got 2 in developing opportunities. And as Lloyd mentioned, we continue to, as we assess additional opportunities and expansions, we would bring that back in 2027.
Lloyd Yates
President and Chief Executive Officer
I think another point there is the pipeline is much larger than nine gigawatts, so we have a robust pipeline. Our study is trying to figure out how much more than nine we can accommodate and over what time period.
Sophie Karp
Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets
Okay, okay, got it. And then on the self-initiated, I guess, study of the storm response, I'm just curious what you guys expect to learn and how do you think Those will interact with the ICC proceedings.
Lloyd Yates
President and Chief Executive Officer
I'm sorry, repeat that question?
Sophie Karp
Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets
The study that you initiated on the storm response, the self-study, what do you expect to learn from that and how would you apply that, I guess, in conjunction with the commission investigation as well?
Lloyd Yates
President and Chief Executive Officer
We're going to submit that study to the commission. We expect to learn a number of things. A, how we can do better. B, what investments we need to harden the system. It should help improve our process. It should give us a window of prudent investment opportunities to harden the system. I think a big one here is how we can improve our communication to our customers in the midst of Significant Storms.
Sophie Karp
Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets
All right. Thank you. That's all for me.
Conference Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Tracia Miller with Morningstar. Tracia, your line is now open.
Travis Miller
Analyst, Morningstar
Well, I haven't changed my name, so it's still Travis. But anyway, good morning, everyone. Quick one. The financing plan, does that also include a pro-rata contribution from Blackstone? I see the little sliver in the pie chart, but just wanted to confirm. Blackstone still wants to maintain it.
Shawn Anderson
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
That's exactly right. It'd be 19.9% of investments across the NIPSCO and Genco capital plans.
Travis Miller
Analyst, Morningstar
Okay. And they're comfortable, as you guys had data centers, obviously they would have to contribute more capital. So they're
Shawn Anderson
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
They're involved. Not to speak directly for them, but I think they're extremely comfortable. Okay.
Travis Miller
Analyst, Morningstar
Okay. And then higher level at the gas business, obviously tons of affordability, politics discussion, regulatory discussion in the areas you serve. What's your stance? Where do you sit in that discussion? Are you kind of playing on the sidelines? Are you involved along with the electrics? What's your take kind of on the affordability, especially as it's become so politicized in those other states? Melody, do you want to handle that one?
Melody Birmingham
Executive Vice President and Group President of NiSource Utilities
Certainly. No, we aren't sitting on the sidelines. We are actively engaged in the discussion around customer affordability and the impact we have on the customer's wallet as we recognize how important affordability is for our customers. And so we continue to look for ways to manage bill impact. We are working with our partners in the business to look at how and when we deploy capital. And then we are also working with our external stakeholders, you know, just to make sure they understand the investments that we're making and being transparent and quantifying those investments that we need to make. So we are actively engaged and we understand the importance affordability has to our customers as well as to our regulators as it has to us.
Travis Miller
Analyst, Morningstar
Okay, very good. I appreciate all the information this morning.
Conference Operator
Operator
Our last question comes from the line of Steve D'Ambrisi with RBC Capital Markets. Steve, your line is now open.
Steve D'Ambruoso
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets
Hey, Lloyd, Shawn, thanks very much for all the information today. Just a quick one. Morning. On slide 15, if I eyeball the Genco adjusted EPS growth kind of from 32 to 33, it looks like it's a pretty decent step up, maybe like 15 cents-ish, which seems like a steeper climb than kind of the update on 2Q. And so can you just talk, you may have talked about it a little bit with the financing Can you just talk about how this is being financed, if there's amortizing debt, or just why once all of these projects are largely ramped in 32, there's still continued significant step-ups into 33 and beyond?
Shawn Anderson
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, appreciate it. I'd caution against getting too precise on the bar charts just in the sense that we've not put adequate disclosure out for 2032's guidance. And so I just would caution against getting too precise with that. But the fundamentals that are going to drive the earnings contribution are going to be what you just mentioned, the financing cost, and more importantly, the customer ramp rate. What's happening in our dynamic, we have customers fully ramping in 2030. 2031 and in 2032. So the combination of those three customer ramp rates at those points in time are going to strengthen the capacity revenue that we're collecting from Genco or through this from our customers. So that's what you're starting to see stabilized to your point about financing. We started to finance things in 25 and 26. We don't have amortizing debt. We've done everything at the enterprise level with investment grade bonds and equity. But inherently, the need for new debt is declining at the night source enterprise because that cash is becoming more optimized across all of our systems. The strength of that cash flow coming off of fully ramped customers is helping us reduce borrowing in any case. And as we go closer to a different financing strategy, if we need one, would still be able to optimize the use of that cash at the enterprise level. So the base case is investment-grade bonds and equity creating more efficiency in all of the net financing as we get out of this decade, and then we'll look for other ways to optimize on a risk-adjusted basis or a strategic basis for our shareholders.
Steve D'Ambruoso
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets
Got it. Very clear. That's all I had. Thanks very much for the time. Appreciate it.
Conference Operator
Operator
There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Lloyd Yates, CEO, for closing remarks.
Lloyd Yates
President and Chief Executive Officer
So let me thank you for your questions, your interest, and your investment in iSource, and look forward to seeing a lot of you at the EEI Financial Conference in a couple of weeks. Have a great day.
Conference Operator
Operator
This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.