OR OR Royalties Inc.

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OR Royalties Inc. Q3 F2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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Operator
Conference Call Operator
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to our Royalties Q3 2026 results conference call. After the presentation, we'll conduct a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. Please note this call is being recorded today, November 12, 2026 at 10 a.m. Eastern Time. I would now like to turn the meeting over to your host for today's call, Mr. Jason Attew. Bonjour, mesdames et messieurs, et bienvenue à l'appel conférence des résultats du troisième trimestre 2026 de Redevance Or. Après la présentation, nous procéderons à une séance de questions et réponses. Si vous désirez poser une question, veuillez appuyer sur la touche étoile suivie du numéro 1. Veuillez prendre note que cet appel est enregistré aujourd'hui, le 12 novembre 2026, à 10 h, heure de l'Est.
Jason Attew
President and Chief Executive Officer, OR Royalties
Good morning, everyone, and greetings from Antofagasta. Our board and management team are in Chile this week, and the day before yesterday, we had the privilege of visiting Mentos Blancos, our second-largest geo-contributor this quarter. This year, Mentos Blancos celebrates 65 years of continuous operation, one of the emblematic minds of northern Chile. So congratulations to everyone who has worked there over those six and a half decades. I also want to thank the Capstone team on site, Fernando, Felipe, Antonio, and Christian, among others, for their hospitality, their candor, and the quality of the dialogue. There is no substitute for standing on the asset to understand both its challenges and its opportunities. A couple of housekeeping notes before we get going. Please note that the news release and the regulatory filings are available on our website on EDGAR and CDAR+. If you're logging in to the webcast, we'll advance the slides for today's presentation, which is also available in the investor section of our website. Please also note there are forward-looking statements in this presentation from which actual results may differ and that the amounts presented and discussed will be in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. Fred Ruel, our CFO, is with me and will take you through the Q3 numbers momentarily. Three things to take away from our third quarter of 2026. Firstly, the model did its job. We earned 20,237 geos, essentially the same as the 20,326 a year ago, and turned them into 26% more revenue and 21% more operating cash flow. because 96.8 cents of every revenue dollar is cash margin. In addition, adjusted earnings per share were up 29%. Second, the greenfield pipeline is now producing. Cuiu Cuiu, a heat leach mine in Brazil, poured its first gold on September 10th. And in Armenia, at Amalsar, the heat leach asset poured its first gold on October 10th. Those, combined with Dalgaranga, which we announced last quarter, have provided our company and our shareholders exposure to three new mines, which puts the number of producing assets for our company to 25. Thirdly, our guidance holds. The 63,734 geos through nine months, which is up 8% year over year, is tracking roughly to the midpoint of the 80 to 90,000 geo annual guidance that we provided in February. and that's after absorbing the Barnett pit wall incident.
Jason Attew
President and Chief Executive Officer, OR Royalties
What went the other way this quarter?
Jason Attew
President and Chief Executive Officer, OR Royalties
Barnett first. Agnico completed remediation of the north wall during the quarter and resumed mining in the unaffected areas of the pit on September 27th. Their estimate of the impact is unchanged. 60 to 80,000 fewer ounces in the second half of 2026. and up to 150,000 in each of 2027 and 2028. At our 5% royalty, that's roughly 3,000 to 4,000 GOs out this year and up to about 7,500 a year in 2027 and 2028. Those are our numbers, not Ignico's, and they're already inside our guidance. In the quarter itself, GOs from Canadian Malartic came in modestly ahead of our own expectations, helped by Odyssey, where our record 391,000 tons were mined and East Gouldie produced 27,250 ounces. It's important to note that IGNICO is hosting a Capital Markets Day on November 18th where we'll be looking for more information on various assets, not only at Canadian Malartic but also at Marban, AK, Upper Beaver and Hammond Reef. All high-quality projects or royalties own various NSR royalty coverage. Two smaller things that did not land when we said they would. In August, we told you first gold at Amalsar in September. It came on October 10th. At CSA, a shipment missed, a quarter-end cutoff, so some silver and copper geos moved into the fourth quarter. and San Gabriel remains constrained by the back end of Buena Ventura's plant. We expect improvement at a measured pace over the next 18 to 24 months, and we will not guide ahead of the operator. Scoring ourselves to what we told you in August, Murabit closing in the third quarter, it closed in July. The share buyback, it's done. 1,007,496 shares bought for 29.1 million had proved what to be at our 2026 share price lows. QEQE commissioning in the fourth quarter, first pour on September 10th, ahead of schedule. The Japan Gold option exercised in September. It closed on November 4th. The 2030 outlook, intact and it still excludes increased GOs from the additional Spring Valley royalty coverage and the Murray Book stream we announced earlier this year. Here is the one thing you will not find at any other royalty company. There are shafts being sunk under four of our assets, and this quarter every one of them moved. At Canadian Malartic, the first phase of shaft sinking finished on July 9th at 1,586 meters, with shaft hoisted ore from East Gouldie planned for the second quarter of 2027. At Hermosa, South 32 expects Both the main shaft and the ventilation shaft will reach the primary production level this December quarter. At Upper Beaver, sinking past the halfway mark at 732 meters. And finally, at Island Gold, Alamos now expects to commission its shaft in mid-2027, a quarter later than planned. A shaft is the slowest, most capital-intensive thing in mining, and our partners are paying for every meter. That is what is bought and paid for, zero contingent capital, looks like in practice. Amalsar and Kui Kui are in slide six. The one mechanic to understand on Amalsar, our stream accrues from first production, but deliveries to OR start once the operator repays his $150 million construction loan and the accrued ounces then arrive in equal installments over the following 20 quarters. At current commodity prices, we expect first deliveries in the fourth quarter of 2027 or perhaps the first quarter of 2028. First royalty payments from Koyu Koyu are expected in mid-2027. Briefly across the rest of the portfolio, Mantos Blancos performed to expectations, as did CSA. However, on the latter, Geo's Urn came in a little light with a shipment that just missed the end of the third quarter. Elsewhere, Dalgaranga continues to ramp up, Nandini has been pouring into expectations, while Geo's from San Gabriel still remain challenged as Buena Ventura continues to work through the bottlenecks at the back end of its plant. We'll look to Buena Ventura for specific guidance, but for those wanting more colour, at its investors day the day before yesterday, Buenaventura spoke to Sam Gabriel in some detail and signaled a measured ramp-up over the next 18 to 24 months. Our portfolio currently boasts 25 assets that are currently in production, with the two most recent additions already discussed. While first royalty and stream payments from both of those assets are expected over the coming quarters. Four catalysts I'd like to mention. Agnico Eagles Cabla Marques Day on November 18th. We expect execution detail on Canadian Malartic, Upper Beaver, and Hammond Reef. The full path to a million ounces, including the second shaft, we still expect in mid-2027. Windfall. On October 30th, Quebec issued Goldfields a certificate of authorization and principal environmental approval. And Goldfields has said that it expects a final investment decision by February 2027, along with its 2026 provisional results. Mantos Blancos, the phase two pre-feasibility study for capstone February 1st capital markets day. And Island Gold, SHAP commissioning in 2027 with underground rates targeted at 2,000 tons per day by year end. One line on Eagle, on October 22nd, Beru announced an agreement to acquire Victoria Gold and with it the Eagle Mine from the receiver with closing targeted for December 31st subject to court approval. We clearly saw the announcement from Beru and their expectation to commit 1.5 billion Canadian dollars over the life of mine at Eagle. We are awaiting further information as the sales process advances toward closing in order to understand next steps. Obviously, the fact that the mine is moving from the hands of the receiver into a prospective operator is a positive step toward restarting production in Eagle. It's good for the Yukon, good for Baru, and we'll have more to say when the transaction closes. Moving to slide 9, this slide is the answer to the question we get most often. The 2030 outlook of 120,000 to 135,000 geos is roughly 50% growth over this year, and it requires no contingent capital. Every asset in the growth bar is either producing, in construction, or fully funded by its operator. The point I would draw your eye to is on the right. As that growth arrives, Canadian Malartic's share of our ounces falls from 38% of the 2026 guidance, devote 21% of the 2030 outlook. Not because Malartic shrinks, but because Amalsar, Windfall, Caribou, Hermosa, Spring Valley, South Railroad, among others, grow around it. The concentration this year's Barnett event exposed is diluted by the quality growth we've already paid for. On new business, the pipeline is extremely active, and our criteria haven't moved. No NAB dilutive deals and a focus on complementary royalty and stream assets to our already high quality portfolio. We can afford that selectivity because our growth through 2030 as outlined here on slide 10 is already 100% bought and paid for with zero contingent capital required. Beyond that, we don't comment on specific transactions until they're signed and announced. So with that, Fred, over to you for the financial review.
Frédéric Ruel
Chief Financial Officer, OR Royalties
Thank you, Jason. Good morning, everyone. Revenues for the quarter were $90.2 million, up from $71.6 million a year ago. 26% growth on effectively the same amount of GEOs earned driven by realized prices of $4,204 per ounce of gold and $64.47 per ounce of silver. Cash margin was $87.3 million or 96.8% of revenues, up from $69.3 million or 96.7% last year. Royalties, which carry essentially no cost, contributed $56 million of revenue. Streams contributed $34.2 million. Net earnings were $55.4 million, 30 cents per basic share, against 44 cents per share in the same period a year ago. Higher net earnings in Q3 2025 came from a non-cash accounting gain of $54 million on the reclassification of a Cisco Gold Group from an associate to a non-associate. At the time, the book value of the investment was revalued at its fair value on that date, which generated a non-cash gain. More importantly, however, Q3 2026 adjusted earnings were $53.9 million, or $0.29 per share, up 29% year-over-year. Cash flow from operations was $67.6 million, $0.42 per share against $0.34, so a 21% increase on a per share basis compared to Q3 of last year. And as I stated on the last conference call, The per share line is the one we manage the business to. Turning to the balance sheet, we ended September with $77 million of cash and $228 million drawn on the revolving grid facility for a net debt position of $151.5 million. Net debt increased slightly compared to the end of last quarter as the draft funded the various capital deployment measures as already mentioned by Jason earlier on the call. partially offset by 15 million in repayments against the facility during the quarter. Our returns to shareholders, the board maintained the quarterly dividend at 6.5 cents per share paid on October 15 of 48 consecutive quarterly dividends with approximately 310 million return to our shareholders through dividends to date. and a further 6.5 cents per share dividend has been declared payable January 15, 2027. Jason already mentioned the total of roughly 1 million shares repurchased and canceled during the period, which was all completed in mid-July. Year-to-date, the company has repurchased and canceled 1.6 million common shares under the NSIB. At the end of September, the company received a notice from Solgold of its intention to exercise its buyback option under the royalty agreement to repurchase one-third of the company's NSR royalty on the Cascadelle property for a cash consideration of $35 million. Following the buyback, the company will retain a 0.4 NSR royalty. The buyback is expected to be effective on November 30th. This $35 million would be in addition to a separate $30 million also to be received from Galliano during the fourth quarter, marking the first of two deferred payments to be received by all royalties as outlined in our announcement with respect to the Goldfields portfolio acquisition made back in February of this year. In total, that $65 million in cash flow coming onto the balance sheet in the fourth quarter, over and above our expected normal course operating cash flows. Our capital allocation framework is unchanged. Investment into new precious metals, royalties, and streams, as well as returns to shareholders through the dividend and buybacks, with ongoing debt repayment being considered normal course. All prioritized in whatever order creates the most asset value per share. In the first half of 2026, that meant new asset acquisitions. In the final quarter of 2026, It could mean more acquisitions or opportunistic share repurchases. Our philosophy is simple. If we don't find and announce any accretive deals for our shareholders over this period and no OR share blocks come our way, then we'll look to reduce the debt drawn from our facility. With our recently increased revolving credit facility, our balance sheet provides all royalties with ample capacity and flexibility for our Thank you.
Jason Attew
President and Chief Executive Officer, OR Royalties
That's the end of our remarks. We'll basically provide back to the operator to open it up for some questions and answers.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star 1. To withdraw your question, press star 2. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. One moment please for your first question. Your first question comes from Tanya Jakuskonek from Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
Tanya Jakusconek
Analyst, Scotiabank
Oh, okay. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I'm consolidating my three into two. All right. So can I ask on just 2027 outlook, and I know, Jason, you provided what you look like in 2030, and I know 2027 is supposed to be a bit better than 2026 on a GEO basis. Obviously, prices have an impact. But maybe we can just review the assets that are going to contribute on the upside and what should we be thinking on the downside as well. Just want to make sure at least I have my production correct for 2027. And on that as well, if I could ask about the debt, I think you mentioned that the debt repayment is lower in priority to share buyback and transaction opportunities. just want to confirm that. And then I have a second question.
Jason Attew
President and Chief Executive Officer, OR Royalties
Yeah, no, thank you, Tanya. Good morning. Appreciate you participating in the call as always. So 2027, as we've stated in the past, we don't give guidance until February of 2021. We put our results out for Q4. However, as you can appreciate, and we talked about today, You know, even from walking us from Q3 to Q4, in order to meet the midpoint of our guidance, Q4 has to do a 5% more than Q3, roughly 21,300 geos. And all the ingredients for the Q4 slight step up will be in place for 2027. That's obviously CSA and Harmony getting more used to the assets and moving that forward. As I said in my statement, the CSA shipment that missed in September, a full quarter of that mining or we'll see that in Q4. The full quarter of mining back in the Barnett pit. Nandini will have the full 2% and the continued ramp up at Dalgaranga that's where very comfortable the midpoint for a Q4 perspective and a lot of the assets that I mentioned will obviously move into 2027. There are a number of our assets that are expanding, as you can appreciate. Some of those assets that you can get more detail from the operators that we expect in 2027 to move are Island Gold, Nandini, as I mentioned, Algaranga. San Gabriel is the one asset that, again, if you go to their investor presentation, it's a lot slower to ramp up than we expected when we first made the announcement. One of insurers is now basically guided to the next 18 to 24 months It's going to be very cautious on the ramp up there. And QEQE. Possibly, as I mentioned in my opening remarks, it really will depend on the commodity price complex. If a Mulsar, which did produce first gold on October 10th, is successful in paying off the $150 million construction loan, it is possible that we'll receive some of those GEOs in 2027. That's really all I can provide until we provide the full guidance in February of 2027, Tanya. But we're always happy to have a conversation with you offline and talk you through where we see some of the catalysts in 2027.
Tanya Jakusconek
Analyst, Scotiabank
Okay. And my second question is just on the pipeline. I always ask about this because, you know, from moment to moment, you know, these transactions, you know, appear, disappear. So just me, you know, can you just talk a little bit about whether, you know, we're still in that 100 to 300 million range that you talked about last quarter in terms of opportunities? Is that what you're seeing or are we going to the 500 to 700 or a billion dollars? A couple of them are out there on that. How would you characterize what you're seeing, what the structure of the deals you're seeing? and whether you've changed any thoughts about how you would structure your own contracts with this environment.
Jason Attew
President and Chief Executive Officer, OR Royalties
So it's an excellent question, Tanya. Please keep asking it because quarter over quarter things do change as you can appreciate. So what we can tell you is we're aware of a number of a billion dollar plus streams that are in various stages of processes with various operators around the world. and so as it relates to all royalties as you can appreciate and you know we have just over a billion dollars of available liquidity and so our balance sheets certainly can do those larger transactions. The question is whether we should and the honest answer is that a billion, a billion and a half dollars of upfront capital in a single auction is very unlikely for us because anything of quality are larger peers, as you can appreciate, have a cost of capital advantage at those sizes. And we've spent at least the last three years proving that we will not pay above our hurdle to win a process and essentially have a winner's curse. That discipline is why the returns on what we did with Nandini, Spring Valley, Murraybrook, Goldfield portfolio are where they are. And we think they're peer leading returns. Now, I will provide some distinction around billion dollar deals because Billion-dollar deals can come in two formats. They can come in a headline value or, as I mentioned before, upfront capital, and they're very two different things. A billion-dollar development stream funded against construction milestones over a two- or three-year build is, in cash terms, you can appreciate $200 million to $400 million a year. If we match those to a project span protected by completion tests and securities, That's a transaction we can do inside this facility without issuing a share. And it's a structure where we believe as a mid cap or speed and flexibility are worth more to a counterparty than our larger peers balance sheet. But to answer the question, so a billion dollar headline, perhaps yes, a billion dollar, billion and a half dollar check on day one, probably not. But the core for us of our pipeline is still, as I mentioned, on a conference call, and our Q2 is somewhere between $50 and $300 million. We still want to obviously be very focused in precious metals, Canada, U.S., the Australias. The ticket sizes in the market may have gone up, as you correctly pointed out, but we will continue to be very disciplined on our returns and very focused on the per share metrics that you're aware of for our shareholders.
Tanya Jakusconek
Analyst, Scotiabank
And just to complete that, I asked about the change in the structure of the deals. As you think about this, because it is a dynamic environment, are you thinking, you know, when I say structure of the deals, there's always a stream component, there's an equity component, a debt component, and now I've seen increase in land package. How would that be different from what you're looking at or maybe, you know, you're looking at something else?
Jason Attew
President and Chief Executive Officer, OR Royalties
Yeah, so you're absolutely on point. I mean, the structure has evolved over the course of time, and there's many transactions that involve, as you say, all the components. So we are looking at transactions that effectively do fully fund our counterparties through the various instruments that you mentioned, as long as, again, we have the appropriate security that we're comfortable with and we get the appropriate return for our shareholders. were comfortable in providing those type of packages to counterparties. Okay.
Tanya Jakusconek
Analyst, Scotiabank
Thank you so much for taking my questions, which I hope I squeezed into too.
Jason Attew
President and Chief Executive Officer, OR Royalties
Thank you, Tanya. Have a great morning.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Your next question comes from John Tomasso from John Tomasso's Very Independent Research. Please go ahead.
John Tumazos
Analyst, John Tumazos Very Independent Research
Thank you for taking my question. Looking at your 2030 forecast and the development and exploration projects beyond your forecast, I guess Cascabel is the biggest of those prospective future contributors. Which ones do you think are number two, three, and four that might come in between 2030 and 35?
Jason Attew
President and Chief Executive Officer, OR Royalties
Yeah, it's a really good question, John, so thank you for that. We do have a long tail of optionality, obviously, within our portfolio. We do see things, you know, from 2030 to 2035, we have a nice loyalty and an asset called Casino, as you're aware, in the Yukon. I think the biggest driver for us, though, comes back to our major cornerstone asset in Canadian Malartic. The growth to 2030 does not include the second shaft, as I think you're aware and you're going to meet with the Agnico people next week. The second shaft and the expansion and their journey to a million ounces, which also includes, as I said in my opening remarks, a number of assets we have royalties on, that comes next decade. So you can think of those two assets as the biggest single drivers of our growth beyond 2030. and again there's obviously Cascavel that is a world-class asset as I think you know and now it's got an operator there that really is moving this forward and we expect again in next decade we'll be receiving significant geos from it.
John Tumazos
Analyst, John Tumazos Very Independent Research
Thank you. And once again, you don't need to contribute any money for those because you've already bought in.
Jason Attew
President and Chief Executive Officer, OR Royalties
Everything is bought and paid for. There's no contingent capital associated with the assets that I mentioned.
John Tumazos
Analyst, John Tumazos Very Independent Research
How about the lithium in the north of Quebec? You didn't mention that as one of the big early ones. Is that moving a little bit more slowly? The company used to be called Patriot, but now it has an aboriginal name that I can't pronounce.
Jason Attew
President and Chief Executive Officer, OR Royalties
The operator has obviously got guidance out there as well. You can follow That's in terms of when they expect to actually get per production. We have not put it by design in our 2030 outlook. We could, and it is in our optionality bar from 2030 to 2035. So is there an expectation that, yes, we'll be getting a geo or lithium product when that's up in operation? Obviously, you've probably heard me say before, Quebec, I believe, is the best mining jurisdiction in the globe. It's not only got all the components with respect to the geology, but it's also got the talent, it's got the regulatory environment, it's got a really conducive environment for projects to move forward. Clearly this is a critical mineral, but we have not put it, to be very clear, in our 2030 outlook. That may change as things get progressed by PMET, but right now It's not in there and it continues to sit in the optionality bar 2030 and beyond.
John Tumazos
Analyst, John Tumazos Very Independent Research
Horn 5 is another one you didn't mention. And Eagle, miraculously Eagle, looks like it could come in 29 or 30.
Jason Attew
President and Chief Executive Officer, OR Royalties
Yeah, maybe I'll start with people first, because that's obviously quite topical, and we've seen the news, and I mentioned that Peru has agreed to buy Victoria Gold, and they are committing or expect to commit $1.5 billion Canadian. Our 5% NSR interest, it is a registered interest in the property. It's an interest in the land, which is, from a security perspective, what you want to have in these situations. What we can tell you and what I said in remarks, we're obviously following the court process very closely. I think it's inappropriate for us to comment at the stage while it's before the court. The royalty runs with the land, and as far as we're aware, every party that was in the process was treated that way. And you're also aware we took the impairment in 2024, we wrote it down to effectively zero, so anything that might happen within... Eagle, the Yukon, it's just pure upside for ourselves. So again, we're obviously following what's going on. It's important to us and we'll report back when we can and when it's appropriate. With respect to Horn 5, as you know, that's obviously a very, very nice asset in Quebec. It's still subject to permits. I would suggest you talk to that management team around when the expectation of permits is going to come in, but it is just a significant upside for us if and when the permits do come to Falco.
John Tumazos
Analyst, John Tumazos Very Independent Research
Thank you and congratulations. I'm happy to be a shareholder.
Jason Attew
President and Chief Executive Officer, OR Royalties
Thank you, John. Appreciate your support.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star 1. Your next question comes from Derek Ma from TD Cowen. Please go ahead.
Derek Ma
Analyst, TD Cowen
Thank you. Branching off Tanya's questions, liquidity for the entire royalty industry has continued to rise despite very strong deal execution over the past 12 months. If we were to bifurcate the market into sub-billion dollar deals alone, is there enough supply in the market for all the cash that's being generated by the royalty companies, considering especially that not all the payments are upfront? or does demand kind of outstrip supply without these mega transactions and liquidity for the group will continue to grow? Sorry, that was a bit long-winded.
Jason Attew
President and Chief Executive Officer, OR Royalties
Yeah, no, excellent question and thank you for that, Derek. But what I would say is obviously where the commodity complex is, every single one of the seniors, mid-cap and junior royalty companies are doing incredibly well. Our margins have obviously expanded. Fixed costs for our companies are are all pretty stable. We're not subject to the inflationary components of the operating partners that we have. What I would tell you is in terms of the opportunity set, it is very, very good. I can just tell you what we're seeing. I do believe that the validation by BHP on the Antamina transaction has really got the attention of not only the senior diversifies, but every company out there that has a secondary byproduct in Precious. So I do believe, you know, I talked about our core pipeline being 50 to 300. We certainly are seeing ample opportunity. Our corporate development and our technical team are visiting assets all over the world. From our perspective, from an execution, it will really come down to, again, cost of capital and making sure that we're doing right by our shareholders and doing it now, now the creative deals. So the short answer is yes, there's plenty of opportunity that we see. I think there's enough opportunity for all the parties, especially the five large ones, the large caps and the two mid caps that you need to be aware of. and so we couldn't be more pleased with the opportunities out there but we just continue to be disciplined as I've preached for many years.
Jason Attew
President and Chief Executive Officer, OR Royalties
Okay, thank you and good luck. Thanks, Derek.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
And there are no further questions at this time. I will turn the call back over to Jason Attew for closing remarks.
Jason Attew
President and Chief Executive Officer, OR Royalties
Thank you, operator, and really do appreciate everybody's time. Again, we're going to sign off from Antofagasta here but the last thing that I would say If anyone on the line has any questions, we take a lot of pride. Any questions, comments, observations or insight on our business, we take a lot of pride in this management team having full access to our owners. So please do reach out to Grant, Heather. You'll have their contacts or you can find them on the website and we look forward to further engagement. Thank you very much for your time this morning.
Operator
Conference Call Operator
Ladies and gentlemen this concludes today's conference call you may now disconnect. Thank you.